Trade back into the first

[Rc2catch]

I would not want to give up next years first. Those picks are just too valuable and with the way the league is trending with impact trades you could get an elite level PROVEN player for a 1st round pick. Say Chicago just totally falls apart this year and cleans house and has to rebuild next offseason you could snag Mack in a “salary dump” kinda situation for that first rounder. Not that exact scenario but we’re seeing a lot more high level players being traded lately. While I love the 5th year option on 1st round players and getting two cost controlled this year is nice, if one of them doesn’t pan out as elite it’s a bad deal. 
Now I could see Beane being very aggressive in the 2nd and 3rd rounds dealing away our lower picks to move around and get his guys. 
He seems to have a real sweet spot in the 3-5 round range identifying talent there. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Please don’t trade up in the 1st round for a WR in a draft supposedly full of WR talent.  Seems like 2nd round has been the higher hit rate for WR anyway.  Go BPA at 22, and then I’d be fine moving up in the 2nd round for a WR if BPA isn’t a WR at 22.  

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Please don’t trade up in the 1st round for a WR in a draft supposedly full of WR talent.  Seems like 2nd round has been the higher hit rate for WR anyway.  Go BPA at 22, and then I’d be fine moving up in the 2nd round for a WR if BPA isn’t a WR at 22.  

It’s like anything. It depends how your board stacks up. If you have the 3 WRs in your top 10 (as an example) and the next one not until 30 (as an example) you may try to get up to get a guy in that Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs tier. That holds true for any position but based on the way that they have targeted WR in this draft it seems like the likeliest position. 

[Buffalo03]

53 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Nah. I’m good. 
 

I hate trading up for anyone who isn’t a QB- especially where next years assets are involved. 
 

 

That being said, it doesn’t even make sense in this context because of the positional breakdown you’re suggesting. 
 

Say we trade back into the first somewhere between 29-32. The players we could take there are not that much better than ones we could get at 54, or with a slight trade up from there. There’s 3 top tier edge rushers, and maybe 5 top tier tackles (depending on who you ask). They’ll likely all be gone before 22, let alone 30.

But we can get that first back easily by trading Patrick Dimarco to a FB needy team. We should do it

[whorlnut]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Please don’t trade up in the 1st round for a WR in a draft supposedly full of WR talent.  Seems like 2nd round has been the higher hit rate for WR anyway.  Go BPA at 22, and then I’d be fine moving up in the 2nd round for a WR if BPA isn’t a WR at 22.  

All these WRs are not created equal. I’m sure there will be a few that Beane falls for and if they happen to start coming off the board, I think it’s more realistic than not that he moves up to get the one he likes. It all depends which one he thinks would pair best with our QB. 
 

I knew this wouldn’t be a popular thread, but it’s something to consider based off of Beane’s aggressive nature. 

[Victory Formation]

I think we need to go WR at 22 and then trade down with our 2nd. So much depth in need areas for us, would make sense to load up the cupboards. Could see Ruggs RD1/ KJ Hill RD4. Kenny Willekes RD2/Alton Robinson RD3. Both WR and EDGE is set for the next decade.

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I think we need to go WR at 22 and then trade down with our 2nd. So much depth in need areas for us, would make sense to load up the cupboards. Could see Ruggs RD1/ KJ Hill RD4. Kenny Willekes RD2/Alton Robinson RD3. Both WR and EDGE is set for the next decade.

We have a lot of depth. We need a few superstars.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

I was talking to another poster about this idea last night and I could see this as something Beane might be willing to do. 
 

With the way this team is built and the AFC East finally appearing to be up for grabs, Beane might view this roster being a few players away to win now. Here’s my idea...what if we took the top DE or OT on the board at 22 and trade next year’s first and one of the extra 5ths this year to get back in the bottom of round 1?  At that point, we could take either DE or OT (whichever we didn’t address at 22) or WR (whichever one starts to fall). We would then still have our original picks minus the extra 5th. 
 

Beane can realistically look at this team as being highly competitive next year and having a low first anyways. It’s not like we should be giving up a top half of the draft first rounder.  We could get two guys this year who we can control for 5 years at positions of need. 
 

 

This is a strictly theoretical discussion for potential GMS out there.  It isn't real because McBeane have been clear, completely clear, that they will not sacrifice the long term for the short term.  A rookie DE is not going to turn the team into a big winner.  A rookie DE may not be able to take Shaq's job in his first season.  

 

No way they're trading next year's first. They may trade some of the later 2020 picks to move up, but that's it. 

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

We have a lot of depth. We need a few superstars.

Yep...hence my argument...

[Steve O]

Who are the last two players the Bills traded away future picks for to get back in to the bottom of the first? J P Losman (22) and John McCargo (26.) They gave up that year's 2nd and fifth along with the following year's first for Losman. Not sure what they gave up for McCargo but certainly more than he was worth.

[whorlnut]

Just now, Steve O said:

Who are the last two players the Bills traded away future picks for to get back in to the bottom of the first? J P Losman (22) and John McCargo (26.) They gave up that year's 2nd and fifth along with the following year's first for Losman. Not sure what they gave up for McCargo but certainly more than he was worth.

Who made those decisions?  That’s right...not Beane. Next...

[BuffaloRebound]

Seems like there’s just as many star WR’s coming out of the 2nd round as the 1st.  I’d rather get more bites at the apple and not waste any of our top 4 or 5 draft picks trading up.  Rookies rarely put you over the edge.  

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Steve O said:

Who are the last two players the Bills traded away future picks for to get back in to the bottom of the first? J P Losman (22) and John McCargo (26.) They gave up that year's 2nd and fifth along with the following year's first for Losman. Not sure what they gave up for McCargo but certainly more than he was worth.

Sammy too

 

Still though, that has nothing to do with this draft. What they did previously when trading away a future first has no correlation to what would happen this time. They may get a HOFer or they may get Peterman. 

[DCOrange]

59 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'd honestly rather see them trade DOWN in the 1st round, possibly even out of the 1st round altogether.

It seems like the Seahawks -- and other teams that routinely pick in the 20s -- do this a lot. Trade down a few times, even out of the 1st round completely, and accumulate extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. 

The thing is, oftentimes in the draft there are only 15-20 prospects that teams grade as legitimate 1st round value. If that's the case, there's not much difference between having pick 22 and pick 35, other than the fifth year option on contracts.

If the Bills could trade down twice and accumulate an extra 2nd and a couple 3rd round picks, I'd rather do that.

Two 2nds
Three 3rds

They could then use their later round picks and the above mentioned picks to move around and select players they target in the 2nd through 4th rounds. That, to me, is where the value of this draft lies.

 

I agree, but this just isn't Beane's MO. He's going to trade up at some point in the draft.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Seems like there’s just as many star WR’s coming out of the 2nd round as the 1st.  I’d rather get more bites at the apple and not waste any of our top 4 or 5 draft picks trading up.  Rookies rarely put you over the edge.  

That’s not an indicator either. There is nothing that makes a 2nd round receiver better than a 1st. Just because teams had their boards wrong doesn’t mean you should wait. You should just do a better job assembling your board.

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Seems like there’s just as many star WR’s coming out of the 2nd round as the 1st.  I’d rather get more bites at the apple and not waste any of our top 4 or 5 draft picks trading up.  Rookies rarely put you over the edge.  

You guys aren’t listening to what I’m saying...I’m saying there is a chance Beane likes a certain WR better than the rest. He might not be there at 54. All WR are not created equal. Just because there is a lot of talent doesn’t mean the one that fits your needs is a dime a dozen...

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

I agree, but this just isn't Beane's MO. He's going to trade up at some point in the draft.

I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. This team is not adding 9 rookies. They just don’t have the room on the roster. He will do what he does, target guys and go get them.

[Steve O]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Who made those decisions?  That’s right...not Beane. Next...

Correct, Beane hasn't made those decisions because the value isn't there to move back in to the bottom of the first, which usually means giving up next year's first along with some of this year's assets. Wouldn't be surprised to see him move up or down from 22 but don't see him moving back in to the bottom of the first once that pick is made.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Steve O

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I agree, but this just isn't Beane's MO. He's going to trade up at some point in the draft.

I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down?

I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets.

Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward.

I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Logic

[whorlnut]

4 minutes ago, Steve O said:

Correct, Beane hasn't made those decisions because the value isn't there to move back in to the bottom of the first, which usually means giving up next year's first along with some of this year's assets. Wouldn't be surprised to see him move up or down from 22 but don't see him moving back in to the bottom of the first once that pick is made.

Value isn’t there? Wrong. If that were the case, then team after team EVERY year wouldn’t do it, right?

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down?

I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets.

Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward.

I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.

This is precisely how elite talent gets passes up on. This is also how a rebuilding team operates. We are beyond our rebuild and ready to win now.