My sleeper pick round 1

[soflabillsfan1]

I thought Ford was a guard before the draft and he hasn't done enough to sway me from that opinion after his first year.  

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m never mad about BPA linemen. 

Yeah, big uglies early is generally a good thing.  This particular player isn’t my favorite from a need/fit perspective.  I love that he is expected to do well in a gap scheme, but his knock seems to be his length.  Thus there is some disagreement about how well he’ll fare at OG (even among the reports on the linked draft network profile).  Everyone seems to think he will be a fine C though.  Morse is in his prime and under contract for three more seasons.  I’ll note here that even though I consider his AAV to be high, the new cash in those seasons is very reasonable so I wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere before the end of his deal.  He may even be extended in a couple seasons. 

 

I don’t care to draft a player at 22 that I then have to play at his second best position for several years before I can move him to his best spot.  Especially when that player is an interior OL where we’ve already invested so much.  I think Ruiz will be a fine C (and he may even be a fine OG), but I don’t see the fit this season with the Bills.  If Morse was 32 or  a year away from being a FA, then sure.  Now he’d be a big luxury pick. 

[Buffalo Junction]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah, big uglies early is generally a good thing.  This particular player isn’t my favorite from a need/fit perspective.  I love that he is expected to do well in a gap scheme, but his knock seems to be his length.  Thus there is some disagreement about how well he’ll fare at OG (even among the reports on the linked draft network profile).  Everyone seems to think he will be a fine C though.  Morse is in his prime and under contract for three more seasons.  I’ll note here that even though I consider his AAV to be high, the new cash in those seasons is very reasonable so I wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere before the end of his deal.  He may even be extended in a couple seasons. 

 

I don’t care to draft a player at 22 that I then have to play at his second best position for several years before I can move him to his best spot.  Especially when that player is an interior OL where we’ve already invested so much.  I think Ruiz will be a fine C (and he may even be a fine OG), but I don’t see the fit this season with the Bills.  If Morse was 32 or  a year away from being a FA, then sure.  Now he’d be a big luxury pick. 

Admittedly, I didn’t look at any center prospects. Didn’t see the need since we have Morse and two backups on the roster already. 

[Seoulofstone]

Round 1? Explain this to me. He was mocked  rd 5-7 in January. He didn't attend the senior bowl. How is he suddenly a first round prospect? What's changed in the two months since the end of the college season for his stock to go up so much? I get that he's been a consistent starter for a solid team but this looks like a 'trendy' pick to me. Bearing in mind that two excellent centers in McCoy and Jenkins went in the back end of the second last year.

[WideRightRevenge]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He is my #2 center. Tyler Biadasz from Wisconsin is my #1. I think Ruiz will be a solid pro not sure I'd see him as the value at #22 but I am struggling at the moment for a pick I really love at that spot. 

 

So Gunner always respect your draft insight ... if someone drops .. who would then have you like them at #22 ... or are you in the trade down camp? 

 

I'm not a fan of trade up .. you?

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Admittedly, I didn’t look at any center prospects. Didn’t see the need since we have Morse and two backups on the roster already. 

Yeah, there’s really no point in it and I see Ruiz as a C.  I guess that’s my whole long-winded point. 

[Seoulofstone]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He is my #2 center. Tyler Biadasz from Wisconsin is my #1. I think Ruiz will be a solid pro not sure I'd see him as the value at #22 but I am struggling at the moment for a pick I really love at that spot. 

 

 I'm curious about Biadasz. He's dropped to Round 4 on mocks. Apparently he was sensational his first two years but his tape has been awful this past year, since he had a hip injury. Are you projecting a turnaround for him Gunner?

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

So Gunner always respect your draft insight ... if someone drops .. who would then have you like them at #22 ... or are you in the trade down camp? 

 

I'm not a fan of trade up .. you?

 

My ideal outcome is one of the three top receivers fall to us at #22 - Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs. I just think that is unlikely. If one of them gets past #15 (ie past the Broncos) then I would start making enquiries about the price to go up into the late teens. 

 

If we sit at #22 the most likely value pick based on how I think the first round will go is a corner. I have Kristian Fulton as my number two corner and a top 20 player and I can see him being there. I don't love doubling up on first round corners though because if Fulton is the real deal and he comes up for a contract at a point White is halfway through a long term mega deal are you going to pay both? 

 

Similarly Patrick Queen and / or Kenneth Murray are in play around that spot and represent proper 1st round value.... but again... are you willing to end up paying Edmunds and one of them in 4 years if it comes to it? 

 

I suspect they might go one of the second tier edge rushers. If I was higher on AJ Epenesa or Gross-Matos or Chaisson it would help. I just think after Young the next clutch of pass rushers are quite close together and I'd feel more comfortable value wise sliding back and seeing which one is there at say, #27 or #28 if you can find a team wanting to come up. The problem is who might that team come up for? Baltimore for one of the two linebackers mentioned above feels a possibility. Tennessee for one of the 2nd tier corners if they have a specific guy they love might be another option. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

There may be no DE worth the pick or WR depending how it falls ... It's no man's land where the best value looks to be Oline, DB 

We may need to move up to grab a WR or End. Staying put would leave us with a host of lineman , DBs , possibly DT

 

The draft is a funny thing.  As you allude, team boards always turn out to rate players differently than media draft pundits doing "big boards" and mocks.

 

I don't view it as beyond the realm of possibility that the Bills try to move up for an edge they like, especially if one falls a little bit.  What I'm not clear on is how much value Beane could get for some of our late-round picks.  But after the league year begins, if he starts dealing players + picks for higher picks, we'll get a better idea that maybe he's trying to position himself to do that. 

 

If there's as big a run on QB, OL, and WR as some pundits seem to be predicting, it's not beyond the realm of possibility someone we like at edge could fall a bit.  See above "team boards always rate players differently...."

 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

You don't draft a RT prospect in round 2 and convert him to guard after 1 year

 

RT is a hard position to play and most peak at 28-30, unless you draft Lane Johnson In the first round

 

Ford will be Ok, we haven't had a good RT here in a long time because we don't let them develop

 

Line play across the league is at an all time low, you need development unless you wanna rely on waiver wire and FA

 

The tell here will be if they resign Spain.  If they let him walk, then could easily move Ford inside, or still draft or sign a FA guard, likely won't know their true intentions until after the draft..  If they do re-sign Spain, then Ford very likely is staying at tackle for 2020.  It still gives them some flexibility as Feliciano is a FA next spring.  So could so still give Ford another year then at RT, if he's still shaky a year from now, then move him inside inplace of Felicano. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Seoulofstone said:

 

 I'm curious about Biadasz. He's dropped to Round 4 on mocks. Apparently he was sensational his first two years but his tape has been awful this past year, since he had a hip injury. Are you projecting a turnaround for him Gunner?

 

Not sure how healthy he was in 2019. I don't think he was awful but he was certainly not as dominant on tape. I have a 2nd round grade on him (though with an injury asterisk) and I don't love this interior offensive line class. I just feel like his ceiling is higher than Ruiz and yet I know people who would argue totally the opposite. He is a road grader who moves people and if the hip recovery sees some more athleticism return to his game then he will continue to develop as a pass pro guy. You would want to be comfortable with where the hip is before you draft him. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I'll throw this in here though maybe it's off-topic

Any take yet on which of these guys are fits with the bills?

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-network-s-daniel-jeremiah-s-top-instant-impact-pass-rushers-of-2020-nfl-draf

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The draft is a funny thing.  As you allude, team boards always turn out to rate players differently than media draft pundits doing "big boards" and mocks.

 

I don't view it as beyond the realm of possibility that the Bills try to move up for an edge they like, especially if one falls a little bit.  What I'm not clear on is how much value Beane could get for some of our late-round picks.  But after the league year begins, if he starts dealing players + picks for higher picks, we'll get a better idea that maybe he's trying to position himself to do that. 

 

If there's as big a run on QB, OL, and WR as some pundits seem to be predicting, it's not beyond the realm of possibility someone we like at edge could fall a bit.  See above "team boards always rate players differently...."

 

 

 

 

On the edge guys it will very much differ team to team on scheme fit. After Young there isn't that elite prospect with length, speed, bend and hands but different of the next group excel in one or two of those disciplines. Each GM has to ask how that fits in his coach's scheme and how valuable that skill set is to them which is different to a guy simply building a generic big board. Even Daniel Jeremiah has said in the past the way he builds a non team specific big board for NFL.com is different than the way he built team specific ones when he was with the Ravens.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

On the edge guys it will very much differ team to team on scheme fit. After Young there isn't that elite prospect with length, speed, bend and hands but different of the next group excel in one or two of those disciplines. Each GM has to ask how that fits in his coach's scheme and how valuable that skill set is to them which is different to a guy simply building a generic big board. Even Daniel Jeremiah has said in the past the way he builds a non team specific big board for NFL.com is different than the way he built team specific ones when he was with the Ravens.

 

See my post above with question

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See my post above with question

 

Yea posts crossed - I think if I am looking for a Bills fit I am looking for the speed, bend and quick twitch guy. So if I was ranking them for the Bills after Chase Young who is long gone I'd have Chaisson as the next best edge fit. But man.... if you are drafting an edge rusher at #22 with a college career high of 6.5 sacks (and that in an extended season - he had 3.5 in the regular season) then you have to do so knowing it is a gamble. Is he big enough to come down and play the run down in and down out? Are his hands good enough at this stage to beat NFL tackles with rush moves (see the game against Andrew Thomas out of Georgia who will be a 1st round pick and it is a concern)? I think if I was ranking a #3 guy purely for the Bills at this stage I might have Bradlee Anae out of Utah. I just think Gross-Matos, Epenesa and Greenard might lack that explosive athleticism. Will be interesting to see how all of these guys test. 

[EricScott]

OK, my sleeper pick is Josh Jones, OT from the University of Houston. Draft Jones, slide Ford to guard where I believe he is better suited, don't re-sign Spain, cut Kroft, and with the savings sign Austin Hooper. There, fixed!

[Nester]

I’d be ok with this if we filled some of our pressing needs in FA.

[msw2112]

I'm a big Michigan fan and have seen all of their games.  I like Ruiz as a prospect and think he'll make a good pro.  That said, I don't think he's the right pick for the Bills at 22 this year.  I don't think Ruiz at 22 is a stretch for a team that really likes him and needs a center, but it isn't a priority pick for the Bills.  If he were to fall the Bills in the 2nd or 3rd round and was the best player on their board, I would grab him in a heartbeat.

Edited February 24, 2020 by msw2112

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea posts crossed - I think if I am looking for a Bills fit I am looking for the speed, bend and quick twitch guy. So if I was ranking them for the Bills after Chase Young who is long gone I'd have Chaisson as the next best edge fit. But man.... if you are drafting an edge rusher at #22 with a college career high of 6.5 sacks (and that in an extended season - he had 3.5 in the regular season) then you have to do so knowing it is a gamble. Is he big enough to come down and play the run down in and down out? Are his hands good enough at this stage to beat NFL tackles with rush moves (see the game against Andrew Thomas out of Georgia who will be a 1st round pick and it is a concern)? I think if I was ranking a #3 guy purely for the Bills at this stage I might have Bradlee Anae out of Utah. I just think Gross-Matos, Epenesa and Greenard might lack that explosive athleticism. Will be interesting to see how all of these guys test. 

Epenesa is interesting. He’s a bull, but isn’t a twitch guy. That said, I can see him being a nightmare for guards if he’s bumped inside on passing downs while being A+ against the run from DE on early downs. I find the idea of Oliver and Epenesa coming up the gut on 3rd & 8 intriguing. Particularly if the Bills nab a guy like Dupree to pair with Hughes on the edge in those situations. I’m really curious how they round out the D line this off season. 

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

You don't draft a RT prospect in round 2 and convert him to guard after 1 year

 

RT is a hard position to play and most peak at 28-30, unless you draft Lane Johnson In the first round

 

Ford will be Ok, we haven't had a good RT here in a long time because we don't let them develop

 

Line play across the league is at an all time low, you need development unless you wanna rely on waiver wire and FA

I wouldn’t say that.  Coaches play players where they are best.  If Ford can be a beast at guard but struggle at tackle...guess what, he’s gonna be a guard.  
 

Here is what you really DONT do.  You don’t keep trying to force a square peg into a round hole just because you drafted him to fit in the round hole.  
 

At the end of the day, he’s going to compete at tackle, but he also isn’t guaranteed that spot and if there is better option that outplays him, then he’s gonna lose that gig 100%.  
 

Im not personally condemning his future at RT, but he certainly did not do enough in 2019 to say he’s got that spot locked up or we can’t find a better option.  I think drafting or signing at RT this offseason is a real possibility.  Let him try and win the job and if not, moves him to guard.  
 

OL is all about playing as one unit and it’s only as strong as it’s weakest link.  And often last year, Ford was the weakest link when he was at RT.  I’m not worried about him as I think he will do pretty good a guard if he can’t lock down the RT job.  But I  am definitely not sold on him at RT yet.  

PS:  I think there is nearly 0% chance we draft Ruiz at 22.  Just too many other players who will be on the board still at 22.  

Edited February 24, 2020 by Alphadawg7