The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Big Blitz]

Hahaha Cuomo writes a book on leadership lolol

 

 

 

They were replying to:

 

 

[shoshin]

6 hours ago, spartacus said:

no matter what the media tell you

physics provide that large holes (.5 micron) do not stop smaller aerosols and viral particles (<.14 micron)

 

 

 

 

The viral particle is usually contained in respiratory droplets. Most of those droplets are larger than .5 microns or fall to the ground easily before 6 feet. 

 

Are masks perfect? No. Do they help contain the spread of droplets especially from the person expelling them? Yes. 

 

Do you keep ignoring this explanation? 

 

Yes. 

 

Thank of it this way. A mask is like the other team's offensive line and the droplets are like the Bills pass rush. They ain't getting through unless they rush bojorquez (hey wait a minute--call McD). 

Edited October 14, 2020 by shoshin

[spartacus]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

The viral particle is usually contained in respiratory droplets. Most of those droplets are larger than .5 microns or fall to the ground easily before 6 feet. 

 

Are masks perfect? No. Do they help contain the spread of droplets especially from the person expelling them? Yes. 

 

Do you keep ignoring this explanation? 

 

Yes. 

 

Thank of it this way. A amsk is like the other team's offensive line and the droplets are like the Bills pass rush. They ain't getting through unless they rush bojorquez (hey wait a minute--call McD). 

 

unfortunately, those large mask holes serve to separate the virus particles form the droplets (that would have dropped to the ground)  and spread them in the air as aerosol particles

this is in addition to the remaining virus particles alrerady in that aerosol state

 

if you can breathe thru your mask, the virus particles are passing as well

 

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

unfortunately, those large mask holes serve to separate the virus particles form the droplets (that would have dropped to the ground)  and spread them in the air as aerosol particles

this is in addition to the remaining virus particles alrerady in that aerosol state

 

if you can breathe thru your mask, the virus particles are passing as well

 

 

You obviously didn't watch the game last night. When the Bills have consistent pass rush, I'll yield the point. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

You obviously didn't watch the game last night. When the Bills have consistent pass rush, I'll yield the point.

Bills were off last night it happens.  All teams have bad days. Especially Titans are a great team making you pay with mistakes. Have to play mistake Free.   But anyways I'm one of those think masks help. But respect others if they do not think helps.

[GaryPinC]

29 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

unfortunately, those large mask holes serve to separate the virus particles form the droplets (that would have dropped to the ground)  and spread them in the air as aerosol particles

this is in addition to the remaining virus particles alrerady in that aerosol state

 

if you can breathe thru your mask, the virus particles are passing as well

 

 

     FIG. 16. Analysis of different droplet types over cough cycles. 

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0015044

 

For Figure 16 the blue triangle line is the maskless condition.

 

You (and others) seem to always miss the point that the mask is a barrier that significantly knocks down the amount of droplets being expelled away from the face and the distance most of them travel.  This paper here is the most conservative numbers in terms of distance, many of the others show even larger efficacy of masks.  

 

Again, this is the reason surgeons wear masks and are taught to operate at arm's length as much as possible.

Edited October 14, 2020 by GaryPinC

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

 

     FIG. 16. Analysis of different droplet types over cough cycles. 

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0015044

 

For Figure 16 the blue triangle line is the maskless condition.

 

You (and others) seem to always miss the point that the mask is a barrier that significantly knocks down the amount of droplets being expelled away from the face and the distance most of them travel.  This paper here is the most conservative numbers in terms of distance, many of the others show even larger efficacy of masks.  

 

Again, this is the reason surgeons wear masks and are taught to operate at arm's length as much as possible.

Serious question. Have you seen anyone cough in a store with the mask on? Ones I have seen both cough and sneeze AFTER they pull their mask off

[SoTier]

Here's an interesting chart relating Covid-19 and state partisanship:  Covid-19 Cases and Partisanship by State since June 1, 2020

[fansince88]

13 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Here's an interesting chart relating Covid-19 and state partisanship:  Covid-19 Cases and Partisanship by State since June 1, 2020

I find this one more interesting. After all i have had the flu but it never killed me and that is what matters. I believe I had Covid and that didnt kill me but truly that is all that matters. http://dangoodspeed.com/covid/state-by-state-total-deaths-by-date

[shoshin]

On 8/22/2020 at 11:18 AM, Magox said:

Gummi Bear has been one of the best Twitter data analysts when it comes to COVID.   His projections here pretty much line up with what I believe.   I think we will hit new lows in deaths by October sometime and continue to go lower after that for a bit.    The question remains is does cross reactive T cell immunity along with 20% covid antibody truly  create herd-like immunity?  Some believe it doesn’t but the actual evidence suggests that it likely does.  And will we see a resurgence of viral infections throughout suburbs and rural parts of the country in the late fall early winter?

 

 

 

This guy, Gummi Bear, once so arrogantly confident in his forecast of new lows  in October and herd immunity developing now admits he was wrong. “Seasonality worse than anyone predicted” he says. And then dedicates 20 tweets to Fauci bashing. 
 

You know who said we’d see a seasonal rise? 
 

Fauci. 
 

Always fun to revisit predictions. 
 

For the record I thought we’d continue to bottom out too. Turns out Fauci was better at predicting this than Sohshin, Magox, or Gummi. Happy to take the lumps. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by shoshin

[spartacus]

4 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

 

     FIG. 16. Analysis of different droplet types over cough cycles. 

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0015044

 

For Figure 16 the blue triangle line is the maskless condition.

 

You (and others) seem to always miss the point that the mask is a barrier that significantly knocks down the amount of droplets being expelled away from the face and the distance most of them travel.  This paper here is the most conservative numbers in terms of distance, many of the others show even larger efficacy of masks.  

 

Again, this is the reason surgeons wear masks and are taught to operate at arm's length as much as possible.

 

stopping droplets is great

except the virus travels as an aerosol - which is not covered by your charts above

 

the mask strips the virus from the droplets and passes them to the world as an aeresol

 

 

 

 

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

 

     FIG. 16. Analysis of different droplet types over cough cycles. 

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0015044

 

For Figure 16 the blue triangle line is the maskless condition.

 

You (and others) seem to always miss the point that the mask is a barrier that significantly knocks down the amount of droplets being expelled away from the face and the distance most of them travel.  This paper here is the most conservative numbers in terms of distance, many of the others show even larger efficacy of masks.  

 

Again, this is the reason surgeons wear masks and are taught to operate at arm's length as much as possible.

 

You're quoting the American Institute of Physics?      What could they possibly know about anything, especially about masks?   Common sense says masks are useless in stopping the spread of coronavirus.

 

//sarcasm off

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by SoTier

[Reality Check]

It warms my heart that people are still scared shitless of the common cold. Fools and cowards so easily duped by a handful of corporate sponsored "experts" in a country of obese, sugar addicted pill poppers.

[SoCal Deek]

I want to know where the updated numbers are? I’ve watched all week to see the death toll rise after joking about the EXTREMELY low numbers over the weekend. It hasn’t happened. It’s Thursday and we’ve yet to see a single day with 1,000 deaths. So by definition the average across the week must be WAY WAY down. And yet every time I turn on the national news I see stories about spikes in the virus. Just more Pandemic Porn! (I quickly turn the channel.)

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I want to know where the updated numbers are? I’ve watched all week to see the death toll rise after joking about the EXTREMELY low numbers over the weekend. It hasn’t happened. It’s Thursday and we’ve yet to see a single day with 1,000 deaths. So by definition the average across the week must be WAY WAY down. And yet every time I turn on the national news I see stories about spikes in the virus. Just more Pandemic Porn! (I quickly turn the channel.)

Are you watching hospitalizations? They are way up. 
 

And if 1000 is your threshold, we were 33 off yesterday. 
 

There is a rise happening, to my surprise. Where it tops out remains to be seen. 

[spartacus]

23 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

 

Are we all just going to ignore that the all cause mortality HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS YEAR!!!!!  What the hell, man.  This does not fit the narrative.  I would like to hear the counterargument to this, honestly no snark.

well many stealth deaths have not been reported, of course

dead people are still locked in their homes and have not been counted yet

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

https://investor.hormelfoods.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2020/Hormel-Foods-Unveils-HORMEL-BLACK-LABEL-Breathable-Bacon/default.aspx

[Big Blitz]

Hahaha "years" now folks.....read closely:

 

 

Scientists at the University of Oxford have developed an “extremely rapid” COVID-19 test that can produce results in less than five minutes, the university said on Thursday.....

 

The university said it hoped to start product development in early 2021, with an approved device available within six months. It is currently working to set up a spinout company, seeking investment to accelerate the test into a fully integrated device.

 

While the breakthrough may not be developed into a fully functioning mass testing device until the latter part of 2021, it could help countries and economies combat the pandemic next winter.

 

https://on.mktw.net/3lQPdXq

[spartacus]

7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Hahaha "years" now folks.....read closely:

 

 

Scientists at the University of Oxford have developed an “extremely rapid” COVID-19 test that can produce results in less than five minutes, the university said on Thursday.....

 

The university said it hoped to start product development in early 2021, with an approved device available within six months. It is currently working to set up a spinout company, seeking investment to accelerate the test into a fully integrated device.

 

While the breakthrough may not be developed into a fully functioning mass testing device until the latter part of 2021, it could help countries and economies combat the pandemic next winter.

 

https://on.mktw.net/3lQPdXq

there is immediate way to generate tests now

if you are breathing, assume they ran your PCR test at 45 cycles, you are positive and call it a  day

 

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by spartacus

[SoCal Deek]

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

Are you watching hospitalizations? They are way up. 
 

And if 1000 is your threshold, we were 33 off yesterday. 
 

There is a rise happening, to my surprise. Where it tops out remains to be seen. 

There is a rise happening as the virus moves around the country. Not surprising at all. But...there isn't a rise happening nationwide. Similarly, hospitalizations are not what we need to be watching. We are way better at treating the virus than we were just a few months ago. Continue to focus on deaths....that's what we're hoping to avoid.  Finally, the numbers speak for themselves.  Over the four day period spanning the entire weekend, we did not get anywhere near 1,000.

[shoshin]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

There is a rise happening as the virus moves around the country. Not surprising at all. But...there isn't a rise happening nationwide. Similarly, hospitalizations are not what we need to be watching. We are way better at treating the virus than we were just a few months ago. Continue to focus on deaths....that's what we're hoping to avoid.  Finally, the numbers speak for themselves.  Over the four day period spanning the entire weekend, we did not get anywhere near 1,000.

 

There's a rise happening in places that went down, including spikes in hospitalizations. In PA, Covid hospitalizations are up almost 100% in the last month. From 420 in mid Sep to 799 today. 

 

You watch hospitalizations because if they rise to a certain point, the entire medical system is stressed. Right now that's not the case anywhere but a 100% rise in 4 weeks before flu season really even arrives is something to watch anywhere. No panic, but watch. 

[spartacus]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

There's a rise happening in places that went down, including spikes in hospitalizations. In PA, Covid hospitalizations are up almost 100% in the last month. From 420 in mid Sep to 799 today. 

 

You watch hospitalizations because if they rise to a certain point, the entire medical system is stressed. Right now that's not the case anywhere but a 100% rise in 4 weeks before flu season really even arrives is something to watch anywhere. No panic, but watch. 

if there was any concern for the health of all these hospitalizations, then there should be massive education campaign on how people can be treated and not live in fear.

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I want to know where the updated numbers are? I’ve watched all week to see the death toll rise after joking about the EXTREMELY low numbers over the weekend. It hasn’t happened. It’s Thursday and we’ve yet to see a single day with 1,000 deaths. So by definition the average across the week must be WAY WAY down. And yet every time I turn on the national news I see stories about spikes in the virus. Just more Pandemic Porn! (I quickly turn the channel.)

 

They're in the thread Covid-19 vs Trump.

 

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

There's a rise happening in places that went down, including spikes in hospitalizations. In PA, Covid hospitalizations are up almost 100% in the last month. From 420 in mid Sep to 799 today. 

 

You watch hospitalizations because if they rise to a certain point, the entire medical system is stressed. Right now that's not the case anywhere but a 100% rise in 4 weeks before flu season really even arrives is something to watch anywhere. No panic, but watch. 

 

Spikes in hospitalizations eventually lead to spikes in deaths, starting about 3 weeks out from when patients enter the hospital.    Deaths probably won't occur as frequently as they did in the spring because the symptoms are well known, testing is more widespread, treatments are better, and people are entering hospitals earlier, before they're critically ill.  

 

The threat of the local medical system being overwhelmed is very real.  In rural areas and small cities,  just10 critically ill covid patients can overwhelm the resources  available.  We saw that in parts of rural Texas this spring and early summer where there simply no more beds available and patients had to be med evac'd  by helicopter to other hospitals.  Moreover, hospitals in some of the hardest hit metropolitan areas were able to get extra staff from around the country because the pandemic was only in a relatively few areas.  Now, it's everywhere, and medical staff in many areas are already stretched thin.

[SoCal Deek]

39 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

They're in the thread Covid-19 vs Trump.

 

 

Spikes in hospitalizations eventually lead to spikes in deaths, starting about 3 weeks out from when patients enter the hospital.    Deaths probably won't occur as frequently as they did in the spring because the symptoms are well known, testing is more widespread, treatments are better, and people are entering hospitals earlier, before they're critically ill.  

 

The threat of the local medical system being overwhelmed is very real.  In rural areas and small cities,  just10 critically ill covid patients can overwhelm the resources  available.  We saw that in parts of rural Texas this spring and early summer where there simply no more beds available and patients had to be med evac'd  by helicopter to other hospitals.  Moreover, hospitals in some of the hardest hit metropolitan areas were able to get extra staff from around the country because the pandemic was only in a relatively few areas.  Now, it's everywhere, and medical staff in many areas are already stretched thin.

Honestly? Give me a break. You can keep peddling this 'sky is falling' stuff if you'd like. But to date, the sky has not fallen. This is a contagious virus for sure, but it is nowhere close to being as lethal as first suspected.  It seems to me we've done what we should have done, and are still doing what we should be doing. It takes a balance between precaution and getting on with our lives. I believe Americans have found that balance.

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Honestly? Give me a break. You can keep peddling this 'sky is falling' stuff if you'd like. But to date, the sky has not fallen. This is a contagious virus for sure, but it is nowhere close to being as lethal as first suspected.  It seems to me we've done what we should have done, and are still doing what we should be doing. It takes a balance between precaution and getting on with our lives. I believe Americans have found that balance.

Check out the 'Gender, Partisanship, and the Pandemic' section and associated poll data.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321698/covid-responses-men-women.aspx

[SoCal Deek]

15 hours ago, spartacus said:

if there was any concern for the health of all these hospitalizations, then there should be massive education campaign on how people can be treated and not live in fear.

And just as important, if we know what’s coming then why aren’t hospitals already prepared for it? People protect their homes before a hurricane. You’re telling me that hospitals haven’t been doing anything since March to get ready fir a potential influx of flu and Covid patients? People criticized Trump for his decision not to panic the American people. Seems to me they’re able to panic themselves without any help from anybody.

[realtruelove]

17 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

There's a rise happening in places that went down, including spikes in hospitalizations. In PA, Covid hospitalizations are up almost 100% in the last month. From 420 in mid Sep to 799 today. 

 

You watch hospitalizations because if they rise to a certain point, the entire medical system is stressed. Right now that's not the case anywhere but a 100% rise in 4 weeks before flu season really even arrives is something to watch anywhere. No panic, but watch. 

Also something to consider is that early on people were told to wait to go to the hospital until they really had bad symptoms and since that time we have learned that early treatment is key.  

[daz28]

40 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

And just as important, if we know what’s coming then why aren’t hospitals already prepared for it? People protect their homes before a hurricane. You’re telling me that hospitals haven’t been doing anything since March to get ready fir a potential influx of flu and Covid patients? People criticized Trump for his decision not to panic the American people. Seems to me they’re able to panic themselves without any help from anybody.

No people criticized him for not sharing the severity of the situation with them so they could properly care for themselves and their loved ones.  At the current rate over 400,000-450,000 people will die from this in one year.  In 1 year close to the same amount of people who died in combat during WW2 and both sides of the Civil War over those 8 years will die.  Roughly 1 in 5 deaths will be from Covid.  I have no idea how or why anyone would want to downplay these numbers.  As for hospitals, last year 47 hospitals were closed, and it's not like we have doctors, nurses, equipment, and facilities all on the bench waiting for a pandemic.   

Edited October 16, 2020 by daz28

[shoshin]

Just now, realtruelove said:

Also something to consider is that early on people were told to wait to go to the hospital until they really had bad symptoms and since that time we have learned that early treatment is key.  

 

Treatments are much better now. That's indisputable. CFR has to be much lower these days than April, though we had such a limited handle on cases in April that it's hard to compare CFR now vs then. 

[Reality Check]

1 minute ago, daz28 said:

No people criticized him for not sharing the severity of the situation with them so they could properly care for themselves and their loved ones.  At the current rate over 400,000-450,000 people will die from this in one year.  I don't see how anyone can downplay this number.  In 1 year close to the same amount of people who died in combat during WW2 and both sides of the Civil War over those 8 years will die.  Roughly 1 in 5 people will have died from Covid.  I have no idea how or why anyone would want to downplay these numbers.  As for hospitals, last year 47 hospitals were closed, and it's not like we have doctors, nurses, equipment, and facilities all on the bench waiting for a pandemic.   

Try not to panic. It is bad for your health.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, daz28 said:

No people criticized him for not sharing the severity of the situation with them so they could properly care for themselves and their loved ones.  At the current rate over 400,000-450,000 people will die from this in one year.  In 1 year close to the same amount of people who died in combat during WW2 and both sides of the Civil War over those 8 years will die.  Roughly 1 in 5 people will have died from Covid.  I have no idea how or why anyone would want to downplay these numbers.  As for hospitals, last year 47 hospitals were closed, and it's not like we have doctors, nurses, equipment, and facilities all on the bench waiting for a pandemic.   

What? This is a PANDEMIC, so we’re told. If hospitals aren’t ready they should be. God help us all when the hospitals are part of a government run system. 

[daz28]

2 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

Try not to panic. It is bad for your health.

If by panic you mean take precautions, then they actually are good for your health, and I surely will

[realtruelove]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Treatments are much better now. That's indisputable. CFR has to be much lower these days than April, though we had such a limited handle on cases in April that it's hard to compare CFR now vs then. 

Another statistic I would like to see is average length of stay in hospital for COVID patient.  That would be very telling.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, realtruelove said:

Another statistic I would like to see is average length of stay in hospital for COVID patient.  That would be very telling.

This thing has completely evolved and we’re much better now at treating it than we were when it started. Trust me, the stories will all turn positive once they drag Uncle Joe across the finish line. 

[daz28]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

What? This is a PANDEMIC, so we’re told. If hospitals aren’t ready they should be. God help us all when the hospitals are part of a government run system. 

Do you have any suggestions how hospitals could/should be more ready?  We can't just create more qualified health care professionals like we could say build more beds.  

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

This thing has completely evolved and we’re much better now at treating it than we were when it started. Trust me, the stories will all turn positive once they drag Uncle Joe across the finish line. 

The media might, but the virus is evolving, too.  We must remain vigilant

[Reality Check]

1 minute ago, daz28 said:

If by panic you mean take precautions, then they actually are good for your health, and I surely will

You mentioned nothing of precautions, nor nothing about personal lifestyle choices that have everything to do with your immune system. You brought up more death statistics and nonsense that has nothing to do with a human being taking responsibility for their own health choices. Going to the supermarket where half of everyone is obese while wearing a mask is a sick joke. People don't want to take any personal responsibility, but seem to think trillions of dollars of government failure compounded annually is the solution.

[realtruelove]

1 minute ago, Reality Check said:

You mentioned nothing of precautions, nor nothing about personal lifestyle choices that have everything to do with your immune system. You brought up more death statistics and nonsense that has nothing to do with a human being taking responsibility for their own health choices. Going to the supermarket where half of everyone is obese while wearing a mask is a sick joke. People don't want to take any personal responsibility, but seem to think trillions of dollars of government failure compounded annually is the solution.

This is exactly why I can't accept the mask shaming.   

[daz28]

1 minute ago, Reality Check said:

You mentioned nothing of precautions, nor nothing about personal lifestyle choices that have everything to do with your immune system. You brought up more death statistics and nonsense that has nothing to do with a human being taking responsibility for their own health choices. Going to the supermarket where half of everyone is obese while wearing a mask is a sick joke. People don't want to take any personal responsibility, but seem to think trillions of dollars of government failure compounded annually is the solution.

Nice bait n switch.  You said I shouldn't panic, because it's bad for me.  I said I'd take precautions.  Again how are statistics "nonsense".  I can't protect myself from other peoples negligence any more than I can stop a car from hitting me.  Obesity is in the Constitution, so that's their right.  Not wearing a mask isn't   

[SoCal Deek]

The utter lack of information in this country is absolutely stunning. After MILLIONS of cases and 200,000 deaths you’d think we’d know whether there’s any correlation between mask wearing and the virus. But no, everything’s political. How hard is it to find out what the common denominator is of those in the hospital? It’s not hard at all. They just won’t tell you.

[Reality Check]

1 minute ago, daz28 said:

Nice bait n switch.  You said I shouldn't panic, because it's bad for me.  I said I'd take precautions.  Again how are statistics "nonsense".  I can't protect myself from other peoples negligence any more than I can stop a car from hitting me.  Obesity is in the Constitution, so that's their right.  Not wearing a mask isn't   

Have you considered having your water checked for lead contamination? You can attempt to mask shame people, but it is a failing narrative. I am under no legal obligation to wear a mask to satisfy people who by and large treat their minds and bodies like trash cans.