The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[SectionC3]

Just now, GG said:

 

So does Jared Polis.  Why did you exclude him?

Fake logic.  A failure to include is not to exclude.  Carry on. 

[GG]

Just now, SectionC3 said:

Fake logic.  A failure to include is not to exclude.  Carry on. 

Then you could have just used Polis.  

Funny how your mind works.  

[plenzmd1]

55 minutes ago, shoshin said:

There were some calls here to see mortality numbers compared to historical average when you take out Covid deaths. Article on it here. 
 

This shows deaths not counted as Covid are significantly increased over the historical average (mostly probably uncounted Covid cases but I’m sure others dying for lack of care for other conditions). 
 

These numbers cast a skeptical eye on the argument that Covid deaths are massively inflated. NYC proved they were not in many ways but this makes the point that not only are they undercounted, they are undercounted by a lot. 
 

“Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”

 

I dont follow the logic in this article, or come to this conclusion

 

Quote

These numbers cast a skeptical eye on the argument that Covid deaths are massively inflated. NYC proved they were not in many ways but this makes the point that not only are they undercounted, they are undercounted by a lot. 

Here ia a quote from that article

 

Quote

The coronavirus may be killing people who are not even infected, by depriving them of desperately needed treatment, said Dr. Bruce K. Lowell, an internist in Great Neck.

“People are still having heart attacks, people are still having strokes,” he said. “I feel as if there is no awareness of anything other than Covid.”

Simple but essential services have vanished, and people with diabetes or high blood pressure, and those who need regular lab tests to adjust doses of blood thinners, are not receiving their usual care.

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That seems to me the very argument that people like me are making...that the number of other deaths is spiking precisely because of the lockdown measures, but those deaths are somehow not relevant when we look at the decisions on how to move forward. Seems an illogical argument to me..ceratinly not one weighed in favor of the greater good.

 

BTW, kinda of a weird and morbid argument in there that organ donations are down, partly due to less accidents. So the argument i guess is one person dies of an accident, but saves 3 lives with organ donations..net positive for society???

Edited April 27, 2020 by plenzmd1

[SectionC3]

11 minutes ago, GG said:

Then you could have just used Polis.  

Funny how your mind works.  

Could have, but kemp illustrates the point perfectly given that Trump impliedly encouraged Georgia’s reopening before condemning the approach.  Do you dispute that the kemp issue does not well illustrate this point? 

Edited April 27, 2020 by SectionC3

[GG]

8 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Could have, but kemp illustrates the point perfectly given that Trump impliedly encouraged Georgia’s reopening be firing condemning the approach.  Do you dispute that the kemp issue does not well illustrate this point? 

What?

[Westside]

15 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 you are not allowed to start your own lists.   Carry on.  

Whatever you say Sybil.

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I dont follow the logic in this article, or come to this conclusion

 

Here ia a quote from that article

 

That seems to me the very argument that people like me are making...that the number of other deaths is spiking precisely because of the lockdown measures, but those deaths are somehow not relevant when we look at the decisions on how to move forward. Seems an illogical argument to me..ceratinly not one weighed in favor of the greater good.

 

BTW, kinda of a weird and morbid argument in there that organ donations are down, partly due to less accidents. So the argument i guess is one person dies of an accident, but saves 3 lives with organ donations..net positive for society???

As Magox and I have discussed, deaths from lack of other care are no doubt up too.  Still, that’s a big spike in “other deaths” for them all to be non Covid. The uncategorized deaths are a mix of undiagnosed Covid and non-Covid neglect. 

[SectionC3]

3 minutes ago, westside2 said:

Whatever you say Sybil.

I’d be upset, too, if I was on the sheep list. 

[Westside]

Just now, SectionC3 said:

I’d be upset, too, if I was on the sheep list. 

Ok, which personality posted this?

[SectionC3]

3 minutes ago, westside2 said:

Ok, which personality posted this?

 

Stupid question.  I only have one personality.  

[Scraps]

14 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

The outrage over the Texas opening was a shock to me. In VA, state and local parks never closed, most retail outside of large box clothing g store branded themselves as essential, both commercial and residential construction continuing unabated afaik,   All things , again afaik, Texas has closed down and is now reopening. Texas governor taking heat for opening too soon, VA governor praised for his response. 
 

wonder what the difference is?

Wakefield park in Annandale VA was closed.  Might depend where you are in the state.  Northern VA has more cases than much of the rest of the state.

 

 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

As Magox and I have discussed, deaths from lack of other care are no doubt up too.  Still, that’s a big spike in “other deaths” for them all to be non Covid. The uncategorized deaths are a mix of undiagnosed Covid and non-Covid neglect. 

 

One thing that would be interesting to see is what would the normal rate of EMT calls & hospitalizations for items such as heart attack & stroke be for March & April in NYC and what is the survival rate when treated vs estimates of survival when untreated and what those rates are currently.

 

We're being told that those are down significantly though it makes sense they'd still be occurring at traditional rates and that a significant portion that are now untreated are dying from them.  Would presumably not make up for the full increase in deaths in NYC area as many are dying from the virus; but if those deaths (and from other untreated fonditions) are substantial perhaps even in NYC it is time to change at least how the hospitals are operating.

 

Hopefully policy makers have that info.

[SectionC3]

Just now, Scraps said:

Wakefield park in Annandale VA was closed.  Might depend where you are in the state.  Northern VA has more cases than much of the rest of the state.

 

 

 

That's a good point. And the state, to my knowledge, doesn't have authority to close local parks.  Here, state parks have remained open, principally on the theory that their typically large size allows for adequate social distancing.  Many town parks also are open, with only certain areas (e.g. playground sets and picnic shelters) closed. 

[plenzmd1]

14 minutes ago, shoshin said:

As Magox and I have discussed, deaths from lack of other care are no doubt up too.  Still, that’s a big spike in “other deaths” for them all to be non Covid. The uncategorized deaths are a mix of undiagnosed Covid and non-Covid neglect. 

without a doubt that is a problem with regards to the testing. ut i posted yesterday the Virginia Department of Health weekly Influenza report. I will post here as well

 

 

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report.pdf

 

Of note to me, 2 new cases of all types of influenza since week 13(March 23rd) and zero deaths , after what had been a spike in week 13 to over 150 deaths that week.(pg 6)  Now, i dont' know why that happened, but i highly suspect is not just cause Covid eliminates Influenza from society. Those numbers went somewhere.

 

And of note to me, even if you accept Virginia numbers at 492 dead from Covid with just about 13K positives, influenza form that report had 2500 dead from 13K positives..granted over a much longer period of time.

 

Add in the relatively universally accepted notion that many, many more people are positive yet asymptomatic for Covid , possibly by 50X, and morbidity rates are way below what was expected, and that's a great thing! 

 

That what science is supposed to be..make hypothesis, and change as the statistical and empirical evidence changes.

Edited April 27, 2020 by plenzmd1

[plenzmd1]

9 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Wakefield park in Annandale VA was closed.  Might depend where you are in the state.  Northern VA has more cases than much of the rest of the state.

 

 

Hey man, I know that park( said in my best Spicolli )! Think it would surprise many a folk that gun stores and outdoor ranges have remained open in VA. In court today on whether indoor ranges need to be reopened 

Edited April 27, 2020 by plenzmd1

[Kemp]

Do we have a toteboard telling us how many of the people here have injected disinfectants, to date?

[SoCal Deek]

51 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Do we have a toteboard telling us how many of the people here have injected disinfectants, to date?

I’m guessing ZERO but that’s just me. What I want is a tote board showing how many people under the age of 55 died from this virus anytime during the month of April.

[PetermansRedemption]

The fact that hospitalizations for non Covid have practically disappeared shows us how rampant the abuse of the medical system is in this country. When people can choose to wait instead of visit the emergency room it is probably what they should have been doing in the first place. Either that or not use the ER as their primary doctor.  

[GG]

54 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Do we have a toteboard telling us how many of the people here have injected disinfectants, to date?

 

I don’t know.  Ask a Canadian when was the last time they took Buckleys?

[PetermansRedemption]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m guessing ZERO but that’s just me. What I want is a tote board showing how many people under the age of 55 died from this virus anytime during the month of April.

Looks like 2014 deaths under the age of 54 for the entirety of the outbreak. By contrast, in that same time period the flu killed 925 in that age group. If you take it further and lower the age group to under 34 you actually have more flu deaths than Covid deaths. Under the age of 34 we have 219 Covid deaths vs 242 flu deaths. 
 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm