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Daniel Jeremiah 2020 mock draft 1.0


DJB

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I think Detroit surprises and goes QB with Tagovailoa on the 3rd pick. Sure they have Stafford but after 11 years and $200M they've reached the playoffs 3 times and all 3 times lost in the wild card round.  They can opt out of the remaining 2 years of his deal after 2020.  Patricia knows from his NE experience that he needs a long term solution at QB and Stafford isn't it.  When will they find themselves drafting this high again to get a top QB prospect?  if they draft this high next year the HC knows he'll be out the door after 2020.

 

This puts the Giants in a great spot to trade back.  Maybe even with Miami if other teams want to jump up to #4 as QB's go off the board fast.  They could drop back a few picks and still get the guy or one of the guys they are targeting and still add another pick or two.

 

I'd be surprised if Jeudy lasts to the Denver pick.  If he does Beane might try to move up and get him.  Higgins would look good in the Bills line up too and filll a definite need at WR but I wouldn't be surprised if they go Edge or OLB here either.

 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wait Wat?

 

So how accurate is he historically then?  Or is it more insight into how teams may be valuing players?


Let me put it this way: if he mocks someone to a team like Baltimore or NYG—where he’s got a connection to the GM—you can more or less take it to the bank.

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10 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I think Shenalt will be a top 10 pick and is the only WR that I would trade up for. This guy is in the mold of WR type that I want to build my team around. He can help your team out in red zone, run blocking, 1st downs and he is a yac nightmare. This guy will demand a double team opening up other players as well, just one guy can do all this.

 

If Shenalt runs anything in the 4.45 range he will skyrocket into the top 5. 

Wasn't this what most said about Sammy Watkins? Except that he lacked the ideal size of guys like AJ Green, Julio and other top WRs?

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23 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

In high school he ran a 4.75; he better have improved that otherwise he won't be a 1st Rounder, I'd think he'd have to run at least a 4.5

 

NFL teams expect him to run in the 4.45-4.50 range

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20 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

NFL teams expect him to run in the 4.45-4.50 range


Higgins is a long strider and takes a bit to get to speed. But he doesn’t need to be 4.5 otherwise I don’t see him in the 1st round. 
 

I want to see his 3 cone numbers and short shuttles. Let me see if he can generate Space out of breaks. Otherwise you have a big guy that makes contested catches because he has to make contested catches because he can’t separate out of breaks. And that won’t work in NFL as seen over and over and over again. 

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32 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I think Shenalt will be a top 10 pick and is the only WR that I would trade up for. This guy is in the mold of WR type that I want to build my team around. He can help your team out in red zone, run blocking, 1st downs and he is a yac nightmare. This guy will demand a double team opening up other players as well, just one guy can do all this.

 

If Shenalt runs anything in the 4.45 range he will skyrocket into the top 5. 

With his injury history I highly doubt he goes top 10. That and I'd be shocked to see him go before Jeudy and Lamb.

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Just now, Gambit said:

With his injury history I highly doubt he goes top 10. That and I'd be shocked to see him go before Jeudy and Lamb.

Lamb and Jeudy should be the first two off board. 
 

I like Lamb a bit more than Jeudy. 
 

now after those two it becomes a little muddled with Higgins, Ruggs, Shenault. 

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


Higgins is a long strider and takes a bit to get to speed. But he doesn’t need to be 4.5 otherwise I don’t see him in the 1st round. 
 

I want to see his 3 cone numbers and short shuttles. Let me see if he can generate Space out of breaks. Otherwise you have a big guy that makes contested catches because he has to make contested catches because he can’t separate out of breaks. And that won’t work in NFL as seen over and over and over again. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked if he declines to run the cone/shuttle after what happened to DK.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wait Wat?

 

 

 

Correction.. I searched out the article and it was Jawaan Taylor going to the Bills at 9 and not Cody Ford..  I got my OT's who ended up going in the 2nd Round confused..

 

He picks Ford to go to the Bengals at 11...

 

If people are interested in how his first cut worked out last year, here is the link... 

 

Obviously he hadnt heard the rumours about Murray at this stage..

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001011490/article/daniel-jeremiah-mock-draft-10-kyler-murray-lands-with-patriots

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4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I wouldn't be shocked if he declines to run the cone/shuttle after what happened to DK.


and he will tumble as well. I don’t care about the 40 with him as much. He isn’t a speed guy so means nothing to me.  Will watch his 10 yard split though want to see how long it takes to gear up. 
 

I will watch those Shuttle and 3 Cone times though. I don’t want another James Hardy a big guy that has to make a living making contested catches because he can generate zero separation out of cuts. 
 

he screams possession WR to me because doesn’t have the long speed IMO. But that is fine as long as he generates Separation out of cuts. 

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Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I may be in the minority but I wouldn't mind a couple receivers in this draft. This team will look markedly better with some guys who can make plays. We can get our edge guy in FA. Getting top end WRs in FA is gonna be tough, if not impossible, need to draft.

I am with you I want Bills to get Three WRs this offseason. One in UFA and 2 in draft. However I could be convinced only to double dip the draft and pass on the UFA 

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56 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

In high school he ran a 4.75; he better have improved that otherwise he won't be a 1st Rounder, I'd think he'd have to run at least a 4.5

He ran  faster than that at Ohio state’s camp while he was in HS. They wanted him bad. Not saying he’s the fastest guy in the draft but that’s not really his, he’s a contested point of  catch guy with elite ball skills.

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Just now, YoloinOhio said:

He ran  faster than that at Ohio state’s camp. They wanted him bad. Not saying he’s the fastest guy in the draft but that’s not really his game, he’s a contested point of  catch guy. 


Not enough imo. While the long speed I won’t really be watching with concern. The 10 yard split and 3 Cone and Shuttle are the most important numbers for him. 
 

he has to show enough quickness to have teams project ability to separate out of breaks. 

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2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He ran  faster than that at Ohio state’s camp while he was in HS. They wanted him bad. Not saying he’s the fastest guy in the draft but that’s not really his, he’s a contested point of  catch guy with elite ball skills.

If he can develop into a Kenny Golladay I'd be more than happy yet I think we be better off with an Edge Rusher and getting someone like Michael Pittman Jr in Round 2. 

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I am with you I want Bills to get Three WRs this offseason. One in UFA and 2 in draft. However I could be convinced only to double dip the draft and pass on the UFA 

Agreed we should not come out of this offseason short on playmakers. There is no excuse for that to happen. Don't put all your eggs in one receiver and take him in round 2 just because he fell. Be redundant with playmakers and make sure.

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Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Agreed we should not come out of this offseason short on playmakers. There is no excuse for that to happen. Don't put all your eggs in one receiver and take him in round 2 just because he fell. Be redundant with playmakers and make sure.


Agree and the UFA as well. Because the reality is we have 2 NFL quality WRs out of 6. 
 

same with TEs we MIGHT have 1 legit one out of 4

 

and RB ooo well can always find RB 

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4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He ran  faster than that at Ohio state’s camp while he was in HS. They wanted him bad. Not saying he’s the fastest guy in the draft but that’s not really his, he’s a contested point of  catch guy with elite ball skills.

I've only seen a handful of his games and have been kinda lukewarm on him in general; you think he might be able to be like a Vincent Jackson type maybe if he develops the right way?

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3 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Disagree. And what if that 2nd round receiver isn't a help this year or never is?

Then we look for a WR in 2022, again it's collecting the best group of players and with WR depth in this draft being better than most I think you can afford to wait to take one.

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I've only seen a handful of his games and have been kinda lukewarm on him in general; you think he might be able to be like a Vincent Jackson type maybe if he develops the right way?

If we keep our 9 picks I have no issues double dipping on WR. Round 2 and Round 6 ideally. 

Edited by The Jokeman
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4 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

If he can develop into a Kenny Golladay I'd be more than happy yet I think we be better off with an Edge Rusher and getting someone like Michael Pittman Jr in Round 2. 

Look how this Draft Fell and tell me what Edge would you rather have over Higgins. 

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

Then we look for a WR in 2022, again it's collecting the best group of players and with WR depth in this draft being better than most I think you can afford to wait to take one.

Comes down to Value. If the Value at that spot is WR you really advocating over drafting an Edge?

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4 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Then we look for a WR in 2021, again it's collecting the best group of players and with WR depth in this draft being better than most I think you can afford to wait to take one.

That's not helping the QB in 2020, way too risky to put it all on one guy and in round 2 to boot. The Bills would look like a much different squad next year with better and more playmakers. We are at the point where we've built the team and neglected that as aspect of the team long enough. It's time.

 

If we signed a high level FA like Amari Cooper I might give you a bit different response.

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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1 hour ago, LittleSammy said:

If the Bills do draft him, I hope he doesn't have the "sentenced to death look" on his face that fellow Clemson alum, Sammy Watkins, displayed when it was announced he was headed to Buffalo!

 

I believe you are thinking of 1st team All Pro Stephon Gilmore.  

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I think Shenalt will be a top 10 pick and is the only WR that I would trade up for. This guy is in the mold of WR type that I want to build my team around. He can help your team out in red zone, run blocking, 1st downs and he is a yac nightmare. This guy will demand a double team opening up other players as well, just one guy can do all this.

 

If Shenalt runs anything in the 4.45 range he will skyrocket into the top 5. 

Shenault looks like a monster when he can dominate inferior players with his athleticism, but he won't be able to play bully ball in the league.  His technique is poor off the line, and his route running is mediocre at best.  His upside is incredible, but he's extremely raw.

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1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

That's not helping the QB in 2020, way too risky to put it all on one guy and in round 2 to boot. The Bills would look like a much different squad next year with better and more playmakers. We are at the point where we've built the team and neglected that as aspect of the team long enough. It's time.


I think that the more pertinent point here is that it’s irresponsible for a team at the onset of their proverbial “window” to go into the draft in desperate need of anything, let alone something as critical to the development of their young QB as a bona fide WR1.

 

Better get one in FA or via trade. Same with EDGE. You could also make an argument for OT and CB, though they’re nowhere near as desperate at those spots.

 

Have to draft for future value; can’t pick based on need.

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Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

That's not helping the QB in 2020, way to risky to put it all on one guy and in round 2 to boot. The Bills would look like a much different squad next year with better and more playmakers. We are at the point where we've built the team and neglected that as aspect of the team long enough. It's time.

What do you expect from a rookie WR? To me a good rookie WR year for a guy who's behind Brown and Beasley in the pecking order is 30-40 catches maybe 600 yards and 4-5 TDs. I think we can get those numbers from a guy like Pittman Jr in Round 2 and have gone on record I like a Curtis Weaver in Round 1 in my early draft analysis. 

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1 hour ago, LittleSammy said:

If the Bills do draft him, I hope he doesn't have the "sentenced to death look" on his face that fellow Clemson alum, Sammy Watkins, displayed when it was announced he was headed to Buffalo!


You are misremembering. Sammy grew up a Bills’ fan.

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16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I've only seen a handful of his games and have been kinda lukewarm on him in general; you think he might be able to be like a Vincent Jackson type maybe if he develops the right way?

No, he’s more of a Martavis Bryant (on the field) ... Kenny Golladay is another good comp 

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6 minutes ago, MJS said:

How is his speed as a big WR? I watched some highlights and he still seems pretty fast.

 

I don't watch college ball, so I only learn about players leading up to the draft.

He is a long strider doesn’t have that other gear. Likely a 4.5 guy (needs that time). I worry about his 3-cone and shuttle times and 10 yard split that will show me how long he needs to get up to speed and if separating is going to be an issue 

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13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


I think that the more pertinent point here is that it’s irresponsible for a team at the onset of their proverbial “window” to go into the draft in desperate need of anything, let alone something as critical to the development of their young QB as a bona fide WR1.

 

Better get one in FA or via trade. Same with EDGE. You could also make an argument for OT and CB, though they’re nowhere near as desperate at those spots.

 

Have to draft for future value; can’t pick based on need.

I'm with you on the trade and/or signing a FA at WR. McBeane has in the past stated that going into the draft and being able to take any position at number 1 is optimal strategy. We are at the onset of our window and having more guys to help Allen is paramount to this offseason.

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

He is a long strider doesn’t have that other gear. Likely a 4.5 guy (needs that time). I worry about his 3-cone and shuttle times and 10 yard split that will show me how long he needs to get up to speed and if separating is going to be an issue 

4.5 is pretty good for a 6'4" WR. I'd be happy with that.

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3 minutes ago, MJS said:

4.5 is pretty good for a 6'4" WR. I'd be happy with that.

That’s what he needs to get. I know many scouts are saying 4.5 is probably what he will run and needs to run. Anything slower and watch the tumble. 
 

I see a 4.5 out of him and that is ok as long as the 10 yard split, 3 Cone and Shuttle times are good. If they are not he is going to fall. 
 

I don’t want another WR that can’t get open and separate 

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Sammy Watkins was of the best college receivers in recent memory.  That’s why you don’t trade up for non QBs in the first. There are zero guarantees.  

 

 

That's not a rule of thumb because sometimes you trade up and get a HOF Julio Jones for a bunch of picks that might otherwise have amounted to zero(as they did in that case).

 

On the whole the higher you are selecting the greater % chance that you get a stud player.    The bigger sample size math doesn't lie.

 

Ultimately you gotta' make the right pick whether you trade up, down or stay put..........if the Bills traded up and selected OBJ or Mike Evans then your rule of thumb wouldn't even be brought up in Buffalo.........it's a false premise based on one unfortunate experience.

 

Now for hard and fast positional rules...........follow the money.   

 

If you can't find it or afford it in UFA........QB/ElitePassRush/WR1/CB1/LT...........then it's worth a 1st or 2nd round pick.

 

Otherwise it's not.

 

First round picks should be treated like $20M UFA purchases.........because if they pan out that's what they should be worth on the open market and you should want to retain them for market value.

 

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5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm with you on the trade and/or signing a FA at WR. McBeane has in the past stated that going into the draft and being able to take any position at number 1 is optimal strategy. We are at the onset of our window and having more guys to help Allen is paramount to this offseason.


Definitely. At a minimum, WR1, premier EDGE rusher and RB1a should be addressed in FA. OL as well if Spain is allowed to walk since they’ll need either a LG (if Ford stays at RT) or a RT (if Ford moves to LG—I love Nsekhe but he’s 35 and banged up). I’d love to see a value signing at CB like Troy Hill or Trae Waynes if KJ doesn’t re-sign.

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