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Phil The Thrill

Bills Press and Fans...It’s Time to Move On With Pat Mahomes

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So I guess I'm a maverick, but here's what I see.  I see QB talent blooming or not, in direct proportion to the quality of the team situation the player came into.  That's not to say that the QBs aren't great players who would eventually succeed anywhere, but they wouldn't have the degree and immediacy of success with a lower quality situation.

 

1) Mahomes was drafted into a situation that could not have been better.  He was drafted onto a team that had talent, including a capable starting QB.  They had averaged >10 wins per season the previous 5 years (10,12,11,9,11 wins) and been to the playoffs 4 of the previous 5 seasons before he started.  They had all kinds of offensive talent, including a star RB, star WR, and star TE.  They had an established offensive system and an experienced OL.

 

Mahomes got a chance to sit and learn in that situation for a full year.  By the time he started, he knew the terminology, he knew the system, he knew how to prepare, he'd had a year to work out kinks in his technique, and he got to sit in the driver's seat of a fully functional NFL offense and turn the key.

 

Then he made that car take off and FLY.  So that's to his credit, and shows that he's a special talent.  I think that he would show he's a great QB eventually anywhere, but to think that he would have been the same degree of game-changing special immediately without any of the other pieces he had, is strange.

 

2) Watson was also drafted into a very good situation.  The offensive-minded HC had been laying down 9-7 records with scraps and shoestrings at QB (Fitz, Mallet, Hoyer, Osweiler).  He had an all-world WR in Hopkins, a solid vet RB in Miller, and a stout D across from him.  When their draft choices on OL didn't pan out they took effective action to shore things up with trades and draft picks.  Ditto with injury to Miller, shored up RB immediately with Hyde.  Again, I think he would show he's a great QB eventually anywhere, but not have the same degree of game-changing special immediately without the coaching and team that is around him.

 

3) Lamar Jackson was drafted into a pretty good situation.  Again, an established HC with a winning tradition, a strong defense, an offense mired in mediocrity with a SB-winning QB who no longer had it.  They had pieces though - OL, RB, TE - and because they got him low, were able to draft more pieces at the same time (2 TE, LT) and the following year (WR) or acquire them (RB).  They had the perfect OC for a run-threat QB on staff and immediately committed to retooling the offense to suit Jackson perfectly.

 

I don't think it's a shock that they're the 3 most successful QB of recent draft classes and 2 of 3 became league MVPs (is Jackson officially the league MVP yet?).

 

At the other end of the spectrum, we have QBs like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold who were drafted high into dysfunctional organizations with questionable coaching and trash and turmoil around them.  They've shown flashes and had some success, but they've also struggled.  Josh Rosen, in an even worse situation, has outright floundered.

 

In the middle we have QB like Mitch Trubisky and Josh Allen who were drafted into situations that are mixed bags - Allen into the second year of a new HC and 1st year of a new GM who gutted the roster of a team mired in perpetual mediocrity, including OL and WR.  Allen got thrown into the fire at halftime of the first game, after not taking reps with the starters all preseason.  Offensively, he could hardly have had a worse situation except for 1) apparently, an OC who has developed a consistent mentoring relationship with him 2) his own personality, which appears to draw guys to him and inspire them to buy in and play hard (and those who didn't, were shipped out).  We don't know what he is yet, and he needs to take a step,  but he doesn't have everything he needs around him yet either.

 

But until we can somehow do the controlled experiment where we drop Mahomes into the 2018 Bills or Allen into the 2017 Chiefs, there are just so many facets different that it's hard to say what we'd see.  And we can't do that experiment.

 

I'm just saying that for coaching and team talent, I'd rate KC > Baltimore > Houston > Chicago >Buffalo > Cleveland, NYJ and that's pretty well how the QB look at present.

 

Peace out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent post! This is true in everything. Skill is not 100% correlated with success. I don't understand why so many people don't understand this. Success=Talent+Opportunity(Situation)+Randomness( Sheet Happens). I mean you can do everything right and not have it work out.

 

Does anybody think a QB on the '76 Bucs ( or many other squads) had much of a chance of succeeding? Think Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes on that team.

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6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The issue isn't so much McD didn't take Mahomes (or Watson).  It's that his (and Beane's) track record drafting offensive players is not really good.  And in a league that demands offense, this is a major problem. 

 

Given that history, what evidence is there (as @Coach Tuesday said in another thread) that McD or Beane have the personnel acumen to identify offensive talent?  Because after 3 drafts their decisions on offense are not promising. 

 

We're 3 years into this rebuild and still talking about surrounding a QB with more weapons.  That's a problem from a team building strategy perspective. 

 

 

 

Other than Tre White, Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, Dion Dawkins, Dawson Knox, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Ed Oliver, their drafts are devoid of talent. :lol:

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4 minutes ago, Augie said:

Technically, we are moving on WITHOUT Mahomes, and I’m fine with that. I’m not still hung up with my high school girlfriend, either. It’s over, way past time to move on.....without. 

Good analogy, some people never get over that either. It's a sickness.

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If Sullivan is saying it, it has reached Peak Whine, and has become so trite it is just annoying.

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41 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

It's Jerry Sullivan's holy grail. He needs a flaw in McBeane's armor to pick at. Without a negative story the guy is lost. You should have heard his radio show when the Bills were 3-0. He sounded like he lost the will to live.

To be fair, he’s heaped praise upon the team this season when warranted. You just have to listen more frequently. He has some excellent guests and is often more interesting than the Simon/White program 

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13 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

The issue isn't so much McD didn't take Mahomes (or Watson).  It's that his (and Beane's) track record drafting offensive players is not really good.  And in a league that demands offense, this is a major problem. 

 

Given that history, what evidence is there (as @Coach Tuesday said in another thread) that McD or Beane have the personnel acumen to identify offensive talent?  Because after 3 drafts their decisions on offense are not promising. 

 

We're 3 years into this rebuild and still talking about surrounding a QB with more weapons.  That's a problem from a team building strategy perspective.

 

Well, first off, Beane has had 2 drafts not 3.

Second off, here's what he's done with it.  Picks past about the 5th round have about a 10% chance to pan out.  The top 3 rounds are where we should get value.

So we have 4 shots on goal, Josh Allen (starting so not total bust - but verdict still out); Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, and Cody Ford, all of whom started and showed flashes.

Singletary in particular showed a lot of promise, and Knox has his flaws but also showed strong play.  Ford may not be a premiere RT, but I think he showed he could play.

 

Then in the FA market they hit on 2 out of 3 receivers (Brown and Beasley thumbs up, Kroft injured but probably thumbs down IMO).

 

I agree "it's a problem from a team building strategy perspective" but I think the problem is more the degree of attention they've given it so far.  So I can't agree that they haven't shown they can ID offensive talent.

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5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Other than Tre White, Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, Dion Dawkins, Dawson Knox, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Ed Oliver, their drafts are devoid of talent. :lol:

 

He did say offense and offensive talent, so ....

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11 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

  Love how people are now acting like they passed on John Elway or Andrew Luck because Mahomes has turned out to be superb.

 

Funny how most of those same people are on my 'ignore user' list as well.

 

Synchronicity...

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Just now, Lurker said:

 

Funny how most of those same people are on my 'ignore user' list as well.

 

Synchronicity...

 

Funny, that ;)

 

 

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It is widely understood they need more play-makers and better OL play for Allen.  How is that still possible after 3 off-seasons of rebuilding?  Sure, there's promise, but it's fair to expect more than hoping these players have potential.   

 

The question still stands: what evidence is there that McD knows what he's doing to align an offensive strategy to personnel to in-game planning? 

 

It doesn't take 4 off-seasons to have a solid offense. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

To be fair, he’s heaped praise upon the team this season when warranted. You just have to listen more frequently. He has some excellent guests and is often more interesting than the Simon/White program 

 

Yeah, grudgingly...because he doesn't want to come off as a total tool. But you can tell he relishes going after the Bills and he looks for any in. Remember the Morse concussion crusade Jerry was on in August?

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1 hour ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I was happy to see KC beat Tennessee last night and overall I like the team.  I think Mahomes is awesome and I like Andy Reid and hope he wins the big game.  I also realized that the Bills could’ve drafted Mahomes and elected to trade out of the pick. It would have been nice but I understand the circumstances and moved on.  At no time did I say “Ugh WE could’ve have Mahomes.”

 

But then I opened Twitter and my timeline was bombarded with the negative revisionist Bills fans crying....literally crying because the Bills had a chance to draft Mahomes and he is now head to the Super Bowl.  Then the media jumped in:

 

 

 

 


I’ll say that if we could go back to 2017, I would definitely draft Mahomes but it doesn’t work that way.  There were some huge fans of Mahomes in the 2017 draft but a lot of detractors as well.  Give credit to Any Reid and KC for making the jump, but they were in a position where they could tolerate a high risk/high risk reward pick.  McDermott probably wasn’t.  

 

Also the situation at One Bills Drive was still a mess.  McDermott was hired but Terry didn’t want to fire Doug Whaley.  It could have been because he wanted to protect their draft intel or because he simply likes Doug and was hoping he’d work with McDermott.   He probably should have just fired Doug and brought in Brandon Beane in January.  The 4 months before the draft would’ve been hectic as hell but it can be done.  People who hate McDermott love to pin this pick on him.  But if you are mad that the Bills missed on Mahomes blame Terry for keeping a lame duck GM in power and creating a less than optimal situation.  
 

Back to the 2017 draft, I don’t blame McDermott for not wanting to select a QB with his first career defining draft pick.  Would you trust Doug Whaley and his staff who haven’t been very successful in the draft and who are on their way out?  Or would you make a bold move by stepping outside of your knowledge/experience base and roll the dice on a QB, knowing that your career probably depends on the pick and that the hit rate on QB’s up until that point was low?

 

Plus you have to remember that many analysts were saying 2018 was THE draft for the QB’s.

 

It seems to me that McDermott predictably did the practical thing and traded down for an extra first.  It allowed him to stay in his lane and draft an All-Pro cornerstone to his defense.  It also gave the new GM a chance to properly evaluate all QB’s a year in advance and the capital to trade up for one.  

Also as Marcel pointed out, it’s important to remember they did pick up an All-Pro CB who will likely be playing in Buffalo for years to come, a Pro Bowl LB (ditto), and a QB in Allen who has shown promise - but ultimately the jury is still out on him.

 

The bigger things to remember is in 2017, they went 17 straight seasons without a playoff appearance.  They made the playoffs in 2 out of the past 3 years and look to be building a solid foundation.


Plus there’s still the question as to whether Mahomes would have been been successful in Buffalo give the situation, offensive personnel and coaching from great minds like Rick Dennison and David Culley.  He came into a perfect situation in KC and wouldn’t have that in Buffalo.  
 

So in 2020, should the Bills have taken Mahomes?  Absolutely.  But remember he’s go #1 overall if we had the benefit of hindsight.  But in 2017 it was more nuanced given the situation and I feel that many people forget all of this when tweeting like they did last night.  It was far from as obvious as people make it seem.  While it looks like not drafting Mahomes was a missed opportunity, the Bills didn’t let it ruin their franchise and seemed to have faired much better over past three seasons than they have in the past two decades.   

 

I think Bills fans need to think about all factors before whining and crying about this.  And ultimately....I think Bills fans need to move the F on.  

 

 

My view:

 

- I was nervous about Mahomes footwork before that draft and I am not going to pretend I was begging them to pick him. I felt similarly about he and Allen a draft apart. Sky high ceiling, potentially low floor, high risk, high reward.

- I understand why McDermott newly installed without his personnel people yet in post did not want to trust evaluations of Doug Whaley's staff on a QB he would then be tied to.

- He landed in the perfect spot in KC with a guy with a track record with QBs who could let him sit and refine his footwork.

- He is the best Quarterback in the NFL today and when he is "on" he is unplayable.

- The argument that he wouldn't have been Mahomes in Buffalo is worth considering but I just think ultimately talent wins out. It might have taken him longer but I think he'd have been great anywhere.

- Tre White is freaking awesome but even if you have him as the #1 corner in the league the #1 QB trumps the #1 corner every single time. Even if you add Josh Allen into that picture if you pass on the best QB in the league you would need to have a guy who is a close 2nd to be even on the scorecard.

- I do not, for a moment, understand the hate some Bills fans seem to have for Mahomes. He seems like a great kid, a great teammate and a great player. The constant desire to see him embarrassed by Tennessee or San Fran or whoever is really petty and really strange to me.

- He is going to win multiple Lombardi Trophies.

- Our focus should be entirely on Josh Allen and his development. That is what matters to this franchise.

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52 minutes ago, steviedotboston said:

There's a certain amount of luck that comes into play as well. Nobody can predict how a QB (or any plater) will develop over time. I don't think Belichick ever expected Brady to be as good as he is, despite what he might say in interviews.

 

Allen has all the right tools, and with good coaching and a solid team to back him I think we can continue to see success. 

welcome to 2BD. Outside of the resident football team I love Boston city. GREAT Town.

 

In regards to the topic I'm reading a lot of excellent perspectives. Yes it is a gamble picking just about any QB prospect...I happen to live where they drafted Ryan Leaf #2 behind a guy named Peyton Manning or in that same draft class the Packers chose a DT named Vonnie Holiday 2 picks AHEAD of a guy named Randy Moss. A person could go to just about any draft class and see how imperfect the scouting evaluation process is....Is it frustrating years later to see what you could have had...clearly for a lot of folks yes. Is it spilt milk and a futile ultimately fruitless exercise again YES...Im squarely in the get over it camp ...it reads like so much whining to me..its weak its not productive and does it better the future prospects of any other draft pick again NOPE. the draft  isnt and will never be an exact science.

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41 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I think we should be talking about passing on Brady (6 times), Wilson, Prescott, Brees etc.

 

Exactly.  Throw in Cousins while you're at it.

 

If you're gonna play the "Draft Redo" blame and regret game, where do you stop.

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My question is why don't the other 9 teams that passed on him in the draft get as much press on passing on him? Mahomes should have been taken first overall.

 

But this has been discussed to death. Reason #1 is we had a lame duck GM at the time. Making a franchise altering decision like taking a QB top 10 in the draft is something you want to at least have a GM you trust in the building.

 

But to end the talk Josh Allen needs to take us to a Superbowl. Hopefully that's next season.

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This is like blaming yourself for not winning the lottery... Nobody knew Mahomes was going to be this good. There were recent QB's with his level of production in college that didn't pan out, Johnny Manziel and Geno Smith come to mind.

 

You can't blame an organization for not winning the lottery on a pick that was surrounded in uncertainty, but that isn't going to stop Sully. The guy is a creature who feeds off of negative emotions, looks for excuses to revel in them. I kind of feel sorry for the guy, I couldn't imagine having a career were the highlight of my craft was rooted in being a mean spirited prick. 

 

 

Edited by Motorin'
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

- Our focus should be entirely on Josh Allen and his development. That is what matters to this franchise.

 

+1

 

It's the biggest off-season for the Bills in 20 years and so many people want to live in the past and whine (Hey, that's what should be written on Sully's tombstone some day).

 

The happiest and most successful people in any walk of life are those who can turn the page and not dwell on past 'what ifs.'    The opposite is true for those who can't or won't...

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

+1

 

It's the biggest off-season for the Bills in 20 years and so many people want to live in the past and whine (Hey, that's what should be written on Sully's tombstone some day).

 

The happiest and most successful people in any walk of life are those who can turn the page and not dwell on past 'what ifs.'    The opposite is true for those who can't or won't...

 

If I could give this 82,941 thumbs ups I would.

 

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i had a chub for mahomes 3 years ago going into the draft. they didn't draft him... I got over it 3 years ago. I also feel no need to say "I told you so". 

 

in 10 years this trade might look a whole lot different. even now it doesn't look awful. i'm happy with our players.

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i had a hard on for mahomes 3 years ago going into the draft. they didn't draft him... I got over it 3 years ago. 

 

in 10 years this trade might look a whole lot different. even now it doesn't look awful. i'm happy with our players.

I liked him too, but there were plenty of question marks about him. There was no consensus at all about how high he should be taken.

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The message for me is, Jerry still doesn't understand why he lost his job. 

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No point lamenting over it.  Yes, the Bills made a mistake but like it was pointed out earlier, they got good things out of it as well. 

 

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28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My view:

 

- I was nervous about Mahomes footwork before that draft and I am not going to pretend I was begging them to pick him. I felt similarly about he and Allen a draft apart. Sky high ceiling, potentially low floor, high risk, high reward.

- I understand why McDermott newly installed without his personnel people yet in post did not want to trust evaluations of Doug Whaley's staff on a QB he would then be tied to.

- He landed in the perfect spot in KC with a guy with a track record with QBs who could let him sit and refine his footwork.

- He is the best Quarterback in the NFL today and when he is "on" he is unplayable.

- The argument that he wouldn't have been Mahomes in Buffalo is worth considering but I just think ultimately talent wins out. It might have taken him longer but I think he'd have been great anywhere.

- Tre White is freaking awesome but even if you have him as the #1 corner in the league the #1 QB trumps the #1 corner every single time. Even if you add Josh Allen into that picture if you pass on the best QB in the league you would need to have a guy who is a close 2nd to be even on the scorecard.

- I do not, for a moment, understand the hate some Bills fans seem to have for Mahomes. He seems like a great kid, a great teammate and a great player. The constant desire to see him embarrassed by Tennessee or San Fran or whoever is really petty and really strange to me.

- He is going to win multiple Lombardi Trophies.

- Our focus should be entirely on Josh Allen and his development. That is what matters to this franchise.

They hate him because he's constantly brought up here for being passed on..... he shouldn't be hated for the organizations mistake.

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you win some and you lose some.

 

sure it hurts missing/passing on a franchise qb

 

it happens alot....how many teams passed on rodgers, brees, brady......marino, montana...on and on

 

tre white & a first rounder is a pretty good consolation prize.

 

we have no choice but to move on.....doesn't mean those who bring up the past are evil

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