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YoloinOhio

Browns interview Brian Daboll for HC; have interest in pairing with Bills Asst. GM Joe Schoen

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On December 31, 2019 at 4:04 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Well, and scoring.

 

 

 

 

And you would still be incorrect.

 

First 8 games 18.9 ppg (does not include the special teams TD against Miami).

 

Last 8 games excluding the Jets game 21.4ppg

 

There was no drop off as you suggested as the season went on. And factoring that the degree of difficulty was significantly greater in the second half facing so many good defenses it actually looks like Allen and Daboll got better as the season went on. 

 

You want to hang your hat on passing yards and completion percentage then fine. But passing yards is a meaningless stat. All five passing yards leaders missed the playoffs. Lamar Jackson threw for less yards per game than Allen.

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On 12/30/2019 at 9:13 PM, Reed83HOF said:

I don't think Daboll would take the job - I sure as hell wouldn't. I would wait for a better opp

 

well, Ron took the Washington job.  Anything is possible.  

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24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

And you would still be incorrect.

 

First 8 games 18.9 ppg (does not include the special teams TD against Miami).

 

Last 8 games excluding the Jets game 21.4ppg

 

There was no drop off as you suggested as the season went on. And factoring that the degree of difficulty was significantly greater in the second half facing so many good defenses it actually looks like Allen and Daboll got better as the season went on. 

 

You want to hang your hat on passing yards and completion percentage then fine. But passing yards is a meaningless stat. All five passing yards leaders missed the playoffs. Lamar Jackson threw for less yards per game than Allen.

This year is an anomaly. Passing yards matter.

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4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It was risky putting Allen in a complex system and IMO it's more a testament to Allen's intelligence than the coaching he's received that he's been a serviceable game manager.

 

They could have adapted to more of a college system.

 

But in fairness it wasn't like he was as natural of a fit into a simplified system either because his natural accuracy isn't on par with guys like Jackson, Mahomes or Watson.    He needed the work on his mechanics to make up for the lack of "shortstop" athletic accuracy in his game.    

 

That's why I think burning the EP system and the mechanics and timing it requires into his mind are probably a better thing for him in the long run.    

 

I just wish there was more in-between because this offense is very frustrating to watch.

 

IMO, I think Beane, McD and Daboll knew that they wanted to install a complex, yet highly productive professional offense.  So they drafted a guy with high upside and intelligence .  Because no matter who they drafted it was going to be a multiyear learning curve.  But, IF Allen learns it all, IF they get a few other pieces to fall in place, then we have an offense to lead the team for years and not a flash in the pan type season.    

 

So, do they see the current offensive inconsistency as just part of the learning curve?   If so, then my guess is they're more than happy with the way its looking, regardless of the stats and standings.  And, assuming Allen continues to grow and mature into the system next year, then so am I.

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30 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

This year is an anomaly. Passing yards matter.

This year was a revelation. Passing yards are correlated, but not the cause of winning games.

 

There is a minimum threshold for winning games. Anything above that threshold is unimportant, but if you are throwing less than that threshold you are dead in the water. Not sure what the number is, but I'd guess it's around 215 yards passing. Consistently less than that and you are not going to consistently win games. Anything more than that is enough to consistently win games.

 

Someone would have to run the analysis to find out what the actual number is.

 

Winning a game is more like an equation than a single stat. Throwing for 500 yards but 5 INT's and no TD's is going to be a loss. Throwing for 150 yards and 5 TD's is going to be a win. There's a sweet spot somewhere that includes yards, TD's, and turnovers.

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8 minutes ago, Dan said:

IMO, I think Beane, McD and Daboll knew that they wanted to install a complex, yet highly productive professional offense.  So they drafted a guy with high upside and intelligence .  Because no matter who they drafted it was going to be a multiyear learning curve.  But, IF Allen learns it all, IF they get a few other pieces to fall in place, then we have an offense to lead the team for years and not a flash in the pan type season.    

 

So, do they see the current offensive inconsistency as just part of the learning curve?   If so, then my guess is they're more than happy with the way its looking, regardless of the stats and standings.  And, assuming Allen continues to grow and mature into the system next year, then so am I.

 

I wonder the same thing.  If it isn't then Daboll won't be here long.

If it is then Daboll needs at least another year.

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7 minutes ago, MJS said:

Winning a game is more like an equation than a single stat. Throwing for 500 yards but 5 INT's and no TD's is going to be a loss. Throwing for 150 yards and 5 TD's is going to be a win. There's a sweet spot somewhere that includes yards, TD's, and turnovers.

 

The passing stats that best correlate with wins are passer rating and ANY/A:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-rushing-yards-and-winning-percentage/

 

Total passing yards barely has any correlation to wins. Every other major passing statistic correlates better.

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30 minutes ago, MJS said:

This year was a revelation. Passing yards are correlated, but not the cause of winning games.

 

There is a minimum threshold for winning games. Anything above that threshold is unimportant, but if you are throwing less than that threshold you are dead in the water. Not sure what the number is, but I'd guess it's around 215 yards passing. Consistently less than that and you are not going to consistently win games. Anything more than that is enough to consistently win games.

 

Someone would have to run the analysis to find out what the actual number is.

 

Winning a game is more like an equation than a single stat. Throwing for 500 yards but 5 INT's and no TD's is going to be a loss. Throwing for 150 yards and 5 TD's is going to be a win. There's a sweet spot somewhere that includes yards, TD's, and turnovers.

 

So in spring 2018 when I did the analysis, the "floor" for passing productivity was between 210-220 ypg (depended a bit upon how one tweaked).

It may be a bit lower now, actually.  We'll see how it shakes out over the longer term.

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19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The passing stats that best correlate with wins are passer rating and ANY/A:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-rushing-yards-and-winning-percentage/

 

Total passing yards barely has any correlation to wins. Every other major passing statistic correlates better.

I haven’t looked in awhile at football specifically but aren’t PF and PA basically the end all be all in terms of correlation to wins? 
 

I know PF has a greater correlation than PA but they’re both vastly more significant than any other variable. 
 

It is a really intuitive concept that I feel some often overlook. I’m more of a baseball guy and there the entire name of the game is maximizing run prevention and run production. Those concepts are leaking over with football analytics. 

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Just now, JGMcD2 said:

I haven’t looked in awhile at football specifically but aren’t PF and PA basically the end all be all in terms of correlation to wins? 
 

I know PF has a greater correlation than PA but they’re both vastly more significant than any other variable. 
 

It is a really intuitive concept that I feel some often overlook. I’m more of a baseball guy and there the entire name of the game is maximizing run prevention and run production. Those concepts are leaking over with football analytics. 

 

Spoken like a guy who just might post a graph of Net Points (Point differential) vs Wins every week :ph34r:

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27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The passing stats that best correlate with wins are passer rating and ANY/A:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-rushing-yards-and-winning-percentage/

 

Total passing yards barely has any correlation to wins. Every other major passing statistic correlates better.

Passer rating is a combination of lots of passing stats, so that makes sense.

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35 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I wonder the same thing.  If it isn't then Daboll won't be here long.

If it is then Daboll needs at least another year.

Agreed.  I think he gets a minimum of 1 more year regardless. Assuming of course he doesn't jump to a HC gig.  But I just can't see them deciding after 2 years and a 10win season, that they need to shake up the coaching staff.   

 

Personally, I like the approach they're taking wth Josh and the offense.  It's complicated, they're limiting his running, and it's causing them to have an inconsistent year.  But it seems they're trying to teach him to be a true NFL QB that can read all the defenses and make all the throws. If you wanna be the franchise guy for 10-15 yrs... that's what you need to do.   The scramblers, the one read RPO guys, they just don't seem to last long.  

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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So in spring 2018 when I did the analysis, the "floor" for passing productivity was between 210-220 ypg (depended a bit upon how one tweaked).

It may be a bit lower now, actually.  We'll see how it shakes out over the longer term.

Cool. I was pretty spot on. Did you run a regression using bins for yard categories, or what did you do for the analysis?

 

It would be interesting to look at it from a total yards standpoint, combining passing yards with rushing yards for the QB.

 

It would also be interesting to see if QB rushing yards are equal to passing yards in impacting wins, or if one or the other impacts wins slightly more.

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32 minutes ago, MJS said:

Cool. I was pretty spot on. Did you run a regression using bins for yard categories, or what did you do for the analysis?

It would be interesting to look at it from a total yards standpoint, combining passing yards with rushing yards for the QB.

It would also be interesting to see if QB rushing yards are equal to passing yards in impacting wins, or if one or the other impacts wins slightly more.

 

To be honest I didn't look at YPG on their own, I wasn't trying to correlate with wins, and I didn't perform formal regression analysis.  The context is, I was looking for a way to sort "successful NFL QB" (not Magical Franchise Man, just a guy I believe the overall consensus would be "you can win with him if enough pieces are in place") from unsuccessful ones, as a precursor to looking at where they were drafted.   Wins are important, but since a good QB can be stuck on a sucky team or a "meh" QB can succeed on a great team, they couldn't be my marker. I had 3 parameters emerge (completion %, TD/INT, YPA)  with loose criteria (but the guy had to hit all 3) and it didn't quite work.  So I noticed if I put in a 4th, a YPG "floor", Eureka.  Since my goal was looking at draft position of successful QB, I never did the obvious thing to go back and look at whether a YPG floor could replace one of the other three.  But the "floor" was lower than a lot of people might think, right around 210-220 ypg.

 

We think along similar lines I believe - I've been thinking that total QB yards, total TDs, and total turnovers might be the new "normal" to look for a correlation to winning.

 

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I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year.

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49 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year.

The only problem is Roman's commitment to the running game. It might stunt Allen's development as a passer.

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On 12/30/2019 at 8:18 PM, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

dont do it Brian, the organization is a sh!t show, thats were coaches go to die.

 

 

On 12/30/2019 at 8:22 PM, QB Bills said:

Keep him. Let McClappy interview there instead. 

 

sounds like you're as smart as Jimmy Haslam

 

 

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4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year.

My thoughts are I honestly hope that Daboll puts it all together and gets the Bills offense rolling against some good playoff teams. If the Bills retain him after that I'm fine with it. However, should he fall on his face and still get offers to be a HC elsewhere GL to him. 

 

Greg Roman will certainly get a HCing shot somewhere and I'm thinking any of the openings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants or perhaps Browns.  He has to be the hottest candidate out there right now. 

 

If the Bills lose Daboll to the Browns I'd rather see Anthony Lynn if fired by the Chargers as he would be my first choice. 

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47 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

My thoughts are I honestly hope that Daboll puts it all together and gets the Bills offense rolling against some good playoff teams. If the Bills retain him after that I'm fine with it. However, should he fall on his face and still get offers to be a HC elsewhere GL to him. 

 

Greg Roman will certainly get a HCing shot somewhere and I'm thinking any of the openings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants or perhaps Browns.  He has to be the hottest candidate out there right now. 

 

If the Bills lose Daboll to the Browns I'd rather see Anthony Lynn if fired by the Chargers as he would be my first choice. 

Lynn won’t be bringing Roman’s playbook or Pro Bowlers with him. Hard pass.

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