Chaos Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:50 AM, Mr. WEO said: Picking an outlier year to divine some meaning is foolish Expand It is not an outlier year. There is no meaningful correlation between raw yards and winning, let alone causation.
BuffaloSol Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:50 AM, Mr. WEO said: Picking an outlier year to divine some meaning is foolish Expand Your favorite team the Patriots won the Super Bowl last year by holding the Rams to 3 points, your boy Brady only threw for 250 yards. It's not an outlier Millennial.
GunnerBill Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 1:24 PM, BuffaloSol said: . Wrong, the top 4 defenses made the playoffs and 7 of top 10. Also, only two teams in the bottom half of the league in defense made the playoffs. Expand No they didn't. The NFL officially ranks total offense and defense by yards. You might disagree with it, but that is the way it is done. 5 of the top 10 teams in total defense missed the playoffs (Steelers, Bears, Cowboys, Jets and Chargers). Though you are correct that the top four defenses (Patriots, 49ers, Bills and Ravens) all made it. Your calculation is by points.... and that is fair enough. But comparing defenses by points to passing offenses by yards is not exactly apples to apples is it? Points per game 8 of the top 10 offenses made the playoffs. It is true that fewer of the playoff teams than has been typical in recent years have highly productive passing games - only New England, New Orleans and Kansas City of the playoff teams were top 10 in passing yards (two of those started backup QBs for multiple weeks) - but then Houston, Seattle, San Fran and Philadelphia are all lurking just outside that top 10 and inside the top half of the league. I just think a little bit much is being made of it. It is a bit of an outlier at this point. Let's see next season if it becomes a sustained pattern. 1
Da webster guy Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 ..... Of the six top passing offenses in the NFL this season, only one will play on into January (Kansas City)." This was def shocking. Makes me feel even better about the Beane, McD, Frasier group. If I were Pegula I'd ink these guys for as long as possible. 1
Billsfan1972 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 1:38 PM, BuffaloSol said: Your favorite team the Patriots won the Super Bowl last year by holding the Rams to 3 points, your boy Brady only threw for 250 yards. It's not an outlier Millennial. Expand Yep another pointing out one superbowl to defend their position. On 12/30/2019 at 1:24 PM, BuffaloSol said: I didn't realize Joe was back playing in SF this year. Wrong, the top 4 defenses made the playoffs and 7 of top 10. Also, only two teams in the bottom half of the league in defense made the playoffs. Expand I'm using yards allowed.... Tenn, Houston & Seattle.... Can play with #'s however you like, but again to pretend Offense doesn't matter..... As I showed earlier an interesting stat was that our Defense too played much worse then average Offenses (League average 20.7 in the league) vs. the Offense played on average the 15.7 strongest defenses). Again skewed by Jets & NE X 2, Balt & Pitt. Again too this isn't fair as every team has different schedules. However the Bills faced maybe 4 strong offensive teams all season (Philly, Dallas & Baltimore?), while also playing some of the very worst (Pitt, NYJ, Cincy, Wash & Den), including rookies & 3rd string QB's (Pitt, Wash & Den) & the 4th easiest Schedule (NE, Dall & Philly had easier).
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 8:19 AM, GunnerBill said: Agree. Especially in a year when Mahomes and Brees missed games. Expand True--and they are back on fire. This same thread subject was posted a few weeks ago as well. On 12/30/2019 at 1:32 PM, Chaos said: It is not an outlier year. There is no meaningful correlation between raw yards and winning, let alone causation. Expand So being a top 5 passing leader never correlates with appearing in the playoffs?
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 1:38 PM, BuffaloSol said: Your favorite team the Patriots won the Super Bowl last year by holding the Rams to 3 points, your boy Brady only threw for 250 yards. It's not an outlier Millennial. Expand lol....millenial
T master Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 1:05 AM, bigbuffs said: The top 5 players in passing yards this season did not make the play-offs. Not sure what it means, but I thought it was very interesting. (I would argue that if Brees doesn't get injured, he would have been top 5 but he was injured.) Expand There's more to the game than just passing for 400 yds ! We have seen this yr Mahomes pass for 300 + & 3 TD's & lose the game so if Josh can just do maybe 200+ a game & win then i'm all about it ! Sure its all good to watch & who doesn't like a 60 yd bomb for a TD during the game but the W at the end of the game is what counts !
billsfan1959 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) In the end, point differential is what really matters. It doesn't really matter how you get there. There were 14 teams with a + point differential and 11 made the playoffs. There were 18 teams with a - point differential and only 1 made the playoffs (Houston with a -7 - and they had a + differential until resting their starters in the last game). There were only 3 out of 12 playoff teams that were not in the top 15 in both offensive points scored and defensive points allowed: Seattle, Buffalo, and Houston. Although, Seattle and Buffalo were both in the top 15 in point differential. Edited December 30, 2019 by billsfan1959
Chaos Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 2:01 PM, Mr. WEO said: True--and they are back on fire. This same thread subject was posted a few weeks ago as well. So being a top 5 passing leader never correlates with appearing in the playoffs? Expand "ever" does not imply correlation. Do this exercise, look at the top 5 passing YARDAGE leaders (by team) for the last five year. Then look at the top five PASSER RATING teams for the last five years. Remove all the teams that are top 5 in both. You will almost certainly see that the list of top five passer rating teams are almost always in the playoffs even if they are not top five yardage teams. You will see that the top five yardage teams without being top five passer rating teams will appear at the random percentage around 12/32 (12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs every year).
eball Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 1:07 PM, Billsfan1972 said: Stop your crusade...... Expand Pot, meet kettle... 1 1
Billsfan1972 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:44 PM, eball said: Pot, meet kettle... Expand I have no problem admitting it..... Three years & no 300 yard passing games.... Well done McD........... Only coach that has accomplished it.
eball Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:48 PM, Billsfan1972 said: I have no problem admitting it..... Three years & no 300 yard passing games.... Well done McD........... Only coach that has accomplished it. Expand How many coaches are 2/3 in playoff appearances during that time? 1
Billsfan1972 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) On 12/30/2019 at 3:53 PM, eball said: How many coaches are 2/3 in playoff appearances during that time? Expand Again last three years prior to McD 24-24, McD 25-23..... Yep they made the playoffs at 9-7, while Marrone was 9-7 & missed it..... Edited December 30, 2019 by Billsfan1972
billsfan_34 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:50 AM, Mr. WEO said: Picking an outlier year to divine some meaning is foolish Expand Outlier year sure- it will be interesting to see how things shake out over the next few years.
row_33 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 2:07 PM, Mr. WEO said: lol....millenial Expand so good to be an X never to be blamed for anything, never too much pressure, just the right amount of work and life enjoyment to pick off the tree.. . 1
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 3:43 PM, Chaos said: "ever" does not imply correlation. Do this exercise, look at the top 5 passing YARDAGE leaders (by team) for the last five year. Then look at the top five PASSER RATING teams for the last five years. Remove all the teams that are top 5 in both. You will almost certainly see that the list of top five passer rating teams are almost always in the playoffs even if they are not top five yardage teams. You will see that the top five yardage teams without being top five passer rating teams will appear at the random percentage around 12/32 (12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs every year). Expand It's simpler (and on topic) to just look at the last 5 years of top passing yards teams. In no year were there less than 2 that made the playoffs. Overall, the incidence was 13/25. 5 of the other 12 missed playoffs were accounted for by 2 teams (NO and TB). So this year is the outlier. It means nothing. On 12/30/2019 at 4:27 PM, row_33 said: so good to be an X never to be blamed for anything, never too much pressure, just the right amount of work and life enjoyment to pick off the tree.. . Expand I'm a late model Boomer. I don't know what that knucklehead is talking about.
row_33 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/30/2019 at 6:05 PM, Mr. WEO said: It's simpler (and on topic) to just look at the last 5 years of top passing yards teams. In no year were there less than 2 that made the playoffs. Overall, the incidence was 13/25. 5 of the other 12 missed playoffs were accounted for by 2 teams (NO and TB). So this year is the outlier. It means nothing. I'm a late model Boomer. I don't know what that knucklehead is talking about. Expand you can hop on board to an honorary spot in X-ville if you have freedom of mind or are left-handed 1
iinii Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Only one rushing leader in the playoffs since Carson got injured. Stats, stats, stats 1
Recommended Posts