Where does Josh Allen's performance rank him among all 32 starting QBs?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

 

538 has a QB performance rating that was developed from a multiple regression analysis and the ELO system. You can read more below. To save you time; the system includes everything passing, running, sacks and strength of opponent. Recent performance is weighted more than older performance.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

I created an easy to read Tiered chart of the current NFL starters. One thing clearly stands out to me, they have Josh Allen ranked in the 12-15 Tier. I find this ranking very fair. I'm curious where most 2BD posters would put him of the 32 QBs? SEE POLL ABOVE THAT MAKES EACH TIER AVAILABLE. JOSH fits with Carr, Murray etc. Is this fair? where do you think he belongs? another tier? Vote in poll above!

 

 

 

RK	QB	TM	ELO-QBR
1	Mahomes	KC	257
2	Jackson	BAL	251
3	Prescott	DAL	251
4	Wilson	SEA	230
5	Ryan	ATL	218
6	Cousins	MIN	216
7	Brees	NO	214
8	Rodgers	GB	210
9	Watson	HOU	209
10	Brady	NE	196
11	Stafford	DET	193
12	Carr	OAK	182
13	Murray	AZ	178
14	J.Allen	BUF	177
15	Foles	JAX	170
15	Wentz	PHI	170
17	Garappolo	SF	156
18	Mayfield	CLE	146
19	Brissett	IND	141
20	Goff	LAR	140
21	Tannehill	TEN	138
22	Rivers	LAC	136
23	Winston	TB	131
24	D.Jones	NYG	126
25	Fitzpatrick	MIA	123
26	Trubisky	CHI	110
27	Darnold	NYJ	106
28	Haskins	WAS	88
29	Rudolph	PIT	81
30	Finley	CIN	47
31	K.Allen	CAR	37
32	B.Allen	DEN	35

Edited November 21, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Good find. 

 

If I understand it correctly, the 538-ELO system is a rolling system that uses a guy's last 16 starts.  So during the season, it wraps back into the previous season.

I also don't think it takes rushes and rushing TDs into effect.

 

From what you can tell, is that understanding correct?

[Augie]

Ohhhhh, some people will NOT like this! 

[MJS]

11 minutes ago, Augie said:

Ohhhhh, some people will NOT like this! 

Why?

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Good find. 

 

If I understand it correctly, the 538-ELO system is a rolling system that uses a guy's last 16 starts.  So during the season, it wraps back into the previous season.

I also don't think it takes rushes and rushing TDs into effect.

 

From what you can tell, is that understanding correct?

That would explain some of my disagreements, since I'm only considering this season for now. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Good find. 

 

If I understand it correctly, the 538-ELO system is a rolling system that uses a guy's last 16 starts.  So during the season, it wraps back into the previous season.

I also don't think it takes rushes and rushing TDs into effect.

 

From what you can tell, is that understanding correct?

From my reading it does appear to take rushing and rushing TDs into account.

[whatdrought]

It’s so hard to say cause we’re coming off a great game... is this the start of something new, or just a flash in the pan? I’m an optimist so I say high end of the 16-22 group, with a chance to get even higher.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

18 minutes ago, Augie said:

Ohhhhh, some people will NOT like this! 

 

I'm really curious to see the graph and the skew. 

 

It's public so everyone can put it on the line a bit.

[r00tabaga]

Philip Rivers

 

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. 

 

This list accurately passes my eyeball test.

 

 

 

I'd love to see where John Brown would place on a similar WR list......Robert Woods is still probably ***** crazy

[Augie]

I voted 16-22 (in the better end of that group), but he’s young and pointing upwards. I could see him easily in the next higher group with a good finish to the season. 

 

.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Augie

[Just Joshin']

15 +/- 2 spots seems fair.  He has room for improvement and continues to improve.  He has not plateaued and shows a winner attitude.

[Stank_Nasty]

I voted 16-22 at this point.... need to see a bit more good play to go to the 12-15 range.

 

I think on any given sunday you could be looking at the 10-24 with him. that's sort of the issue at the moment. but he's been pretty darn solid as a whole this year.

[Alphadawg7]

I got him in the 12-15 group.  I think that’s the right spot for him at this point in the season.  But the next chunk of games are going to really show us where he should be as the opponents are going to be a tougher stretch of games.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

That would explain some of my disagreements, since I'm only considering this season for now. 

 

I’d be interested to hear more about this at this point, if you’re willing

[billsfan1959]

IMO, the 12-15 group is a fair assessment. He is continuing to improve and I expect him to stay pretty much in this range through the rest of the season - and a move into the top 10 group next year.

[Fan in San Diego]

39 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

Philip Rivers

 

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. 

 

This list accurately passes my eyeball test.

 

 

 

I'd love to see where John Brown would place on a similar WR list......Robert Woods is still probably ***** crazy

I watched that Monday night game. Rivers looked dreadful. Time to retire dude.

 

[DCOrange]

I voted 23-25, but thinking about it more, I think he's probably more around the 18-22 range right now.

[BuffaloHokie13]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I’d be interested to hear more about this at this point, if you’re willing

Soon! With all the injuries (and benchings) this year I'm having a little trouble with a good attempt threshold that also includes the right players.

[r00tabaga]

12-15 for me seems perf'

 

I really wanted to go higher but then saw the names.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted the 12-15 range, but he is trending in the right direction and in my opinion will very soon be in the conversation for top 10 QB's in the league, especially because several on the list ahead of him are starting to trend downward.  He still has a lot of work to do to put it all together, and deliver on the promise of his abilities, but the door is certainly open for him.