20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll wave the white flag because you have proved yourself incapable of reading a post or logical thinking.  

 

I have stated over & over that I want to see the offense play 4 quarters of offense (not just the 4th).  

 

I have stated over and over that I do like Allen, think he will be a very good player & blame most of the offensive shortcomings on the coaching staff and philosophy, but won't be sure until I see that 300 yard game, multiple games where he plays well for 4 quarters and see games where we consistently score high 20's-30's.  I'd love to win a shootout.

 

Brady was not the anointed one back then, was a 6th round pick thrown in only because of a season ending injury and was  only a game manager.  By season 2 he was the bonafied starter and had 3 300 yard games & 28 TDs vs. 14 ints..... 

I stopped reading at "I'll wave the white flag"

 

Because you should.

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the NFL this year, there have been 72 games of QB's throwing for 300 yards.  37 of those games ended up in wins....51% of the time.  

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the NFL this year, there have been 72 games of QB's throwing for 300 yards.  37 of those games ended up in wins....51% of the time.  

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

 

See below: 51% win correlation is really 75%....

 

#StatsAreNotHisStrongSuit

 

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw flor 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw flor 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

 

Man you really don't understand context at all. 

 

Yep...can't blame the QB because he threw for 300 yards. He might have thrown 4 INT's which lead to multiple scores for the other team.  Might have held the ball too long a lot of the game taking many sacks put them in bad field position over and over again.   Might have taken some big sacks taken them out of FG range.  Many things could have happened through out the game but NONE of that matters to you....just 300.  

[Billsfan1972]

And in 2019 outside Buffalo, the only teams without a 300 yard passer are Pittsburgh (on their 3rd or 4th qb) & Miami.....  Great company.....? 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

 

Not making a conclusion.  Just pointing out that in the last 28 years, 27 SB winning Qb's have thrown for 300 yards during the season and only 1 hasn't.  

Well it’s interesting but the question is how meaningful it is.

[soflabillsfan1]

31 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 Let me ask you and @soflabillsfan1a question:

 

In Tom Brady's first SB win, he had one 300 yard game during the regular season and one during the playoffs. In those two games, he averaged 53 attempts to reach 300 yds, threw for 2 TDs and 1 INT, and averaged 22.5 points per game. In fact, in the playoff game in which he threww for 300 yards, he didn't have a touchdown and the defense bailed him out in a 16-13 win.

 

In the Super Bowl, he threw for 145 yds. Yet, when his team needed him, he pushed the ball downfield and put his team in position to kick the game winning field goal.

 

What was more meaningful? The 300 yard games or the ability to carry his team when he needed to.

 

I suppose we could use your simple analysis above and say if Brady threw for 300 yards in the Super Bowl, he wouldn't have had to come back with a game winning drive in the 4th quarter. 

 

Allen led his team to wins in a number of games and didn't throw for 300 yards. Did you even read what I wrote before responding?

 

Still haven't answered my question on Allen being a catalyst for the team.

 

You are the cyber equivalent of a 3 year old throwing a tantrum in a store because his mommy didn't buy him the candy bar he wanted...

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

[oldmanfan]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

Possibly.  If he throws a stupid pick in the last drive you could, for example.

 

The data the OP provided ins thought provoking, but from a purely statistical perspective it doesn't really tell you anything in terms of causation.  You could have poor game planning, poor defense, poor QB play, poor WRs, and on and on.   

 

I think you are falling into a common statistical trap - confirmation bias.  You have implied on this board that what excites you the most is offense, so you want to see the Bills pile up more yards.  Now, that's not as bad as another poster, who has put out what to me are the two most mystifying posts I've seen in a long time; that he'd rather the team get over 300 yards passing vs. win, and that he thinks offense wins games but defense wins championships to somehow justify his views of 300 yard passing games.

 

But back to your confirmation bias.  Because your wish is what you term exciting games (personally I get excited by great defense, but again I digress), you look at the data on the 300 yard games listed here as justification that it somehow proves your point.  It really doesn't though.  It just reinforces your previously held bias.

 

I'll say again, I'd love to see Josh break out and have a huge game.  Who wouldn't? But I would want to see it in the context of a win.  The Bills are 5-2 right now.  That's pretty good.  And they've done it with defense, decent running game, AND with a young QB that really comes to the forefront in the fourth quarter.  Rather than make the stale argument that if he had been better the first three quarters he wouldn't need the heroics in the fourth, I would say this: 

       1.  His fourth quarter performances are a positive sign that he can be the guy

        2.  The OC should look at his fourth quarter play and design things in the first 3 quarters to allow him to play like he does the fourth quarter (like Singleton, maybe?).

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by oldmanfan

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

Correct

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Possibly.  If he throws a stupid pick in the last drive you could, for example.

 

Th data the OP provided ins thought provoking, but from a purely statistical perspective it doesn't really tell you anything in terms of causation.  You could have poor game planning, poor defense, poor QB play, poor WRs, and on and on.   

 

I think you are falling into a common statistical trap - confirmation bias.  You have implied on this board that what excites you the most is offense, so you want to see the Bills pile up more yards.  Now, that's not as bad as another poster, who has put out what to me are the two most mystifying posts I've seen in a long time; that he'd rather the team get over 300 yards passing vs. win, and that he thinks offense wins games but defense wins championships to somehow justify his views of 300 yard passing games.

 

But back to your confirmation bias.  Because your wish is what you term exciting games (personally I get excited by great defense, but again I digress), you look at the data on the 300 yard games listed here as justification that it somehow proves your point.  It really doesn't though.  It just reinforces your previously held bias.

 

I'll say again, I'd love to see Josh break out and have a huge game.  Who wouldn't? But I would want to see it in the context of a win.  The Bills are 5-2 right now.  That's pretty good.  And they've done it with defense, decent running game, AND with a young QB that really comes to the forefront in the fourth quarter.  Rather than make the stale argument that if he had been better the first three quarters he wouldn't need the heroics in the fourth, I would say this: 

 

 

 

I appreciate a fair post.  We can debate poor ints, bad sacks & fumbles too, but then we'd get bogged down.

 

There also too was that coaching adage that said Three Things Can Happen When You Pass and Two of Them Are Bad, which today is really just scoffed at (though not sure that McD may not agree with it)...

 

As for throwing for over 300 & losing, I too don't disagree to a point.

 

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing, however building for the future & this 5 year plan.....  

 

If that is the case, to me having the QB in place is the most important facet & the quicker the Bills know whether it is Allen (or not) means to me seeing him throw for 300+, play great offense for 4 quarters & if that means losing 38-35, that may be the best thing to happen to the Bills.  

 

Again you can believe that every game can be won 17-13 and be defense first, but I can'tg stand those games & that hjas been the Bills mantra for the past 2.5 seasons & I don't particularly like it.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

31 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

You're citing 1 game.  I'm citing 28 years.  I guess I can cite games too. What about when Brady in 2017 had to throw for 466 yards to come back and beat the falcons?  What about when he threw for 328 and 4 TDs to beat the seahawks? What about the 354 yards and 3 TDs against the panthers in 2004?  Here's another fact.  In the last 28 years, in the games where a SB winning QB threw for over 300 yards, they were 76-18, win to lose ratio.

My point exactly. You have to go game by game to put any context or meaning to it. Even then, you still have to analyze many variables to tell you whether or not the 300+ yard game was necessary or critical to the actual win. In the end for every 300+ yard game you show me a win, I can show you one in a loss. So, again, show me the actual statistical analyses where 300+ yard games are predictive of wins.

[dave mcbride]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I pointed out the record 37-33 & the one tie (where both threw for 300)....  I then further broke it down.  

 

I will again argue that when both throw for 300 and decided by less then a touchdown one can not blame the losing QB can they?

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. You have to go game by game to put any context or meaning to it. Even then, you still have to analyze many variables to tell you whether or not the 300+ yard game was necessary or critical to the actual win. In the end for every 300+ yard game you show me a win, I can show you one in a loss. So, again, show me the actual statistical analyses where 300+ yard games are predictive of wins.

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

[billsfan1959]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing

 

And this is why so many posters want to take you to task. You are constantly asserting that because a poster happens to think the "process" is a legitimate thing for almost every team, or believes that this team is still in the process of building to a championship caliber level, or happens to disagree with your perspective on 300 yard games, or just doesn't complain about the team in every post, then that poster must be okay with losing. 

 

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

 

That wasn't my point. My point was that an arbitrary 300+ yard performance, evaluated in a vacuum, does not necessarily correlate to a win - and this clamoring for A 300 yard game just for the sake of having a 300 yard game is ridiculous. I have said over and over that I would rather have a QB that can push the ball down the field when it is needed. Sometimes that equals a 300+ yard performance and sometimes it doesn't, thank you very much.

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[row_33]

6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

And this is why so many posters want to take you to task. You are constantly asserting that because a poster happens to think the "process" is a legitimate thing for almost every team, or believes that this team is still in the process of building to a championship caliber level, or happens to disagree with your perspective on 300 yard games, or just doesn't complain about the team in every post, then that poster must be okay with losing. 

 

 

That wasn't my point. My point was that an arbitrary 300+ yard performance, evaluated in a vacuum, does not necessarily correlate to a win - and this clamoring for A 300 yard game just for the sake of having a 300 yard game is ridiculous. I have said over and over that I would rather have a QB that can push the ball down the field when it is needed. Sometimes that equals a 300+ yard performance and sometimes it doesn't, thank you very much.

 

thanks, i didn't know before right now that a 300+ yard game was 100% a win

 

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I appreciate a fair post.  We can debate poor ints, bad sacks & fumbles too, but then we'd get bogged down.

 

There also too was that coaching adage that said Three Things Can Happen When You Pass and Two of Them Are Bad, which today is really just scoffed at (though not sure that McD may not agree with it)...

 

As for throwing for over 300 & losing, I too don't disagree to a point.

 

We have so many on here who believe "The Process" and seem okay with losing, however building for the future & this 5 year plan.....  

 

If that is the case, to me having the QB in place is the most important facet & the quicker the Bills know whether it is Allen (or not) means to me seeing him throw for 300+, play great offense for 4 quarters & if that means losing 38-35, that may be the best thing to happen to the Bills.  

 

Again you can believe that every game can be won 17-13 and be defense first, but I can'tg stand those games & that hjas been the Bills mantra for the past 2.5 seasons & I don't particularly like it.

 

 

I am going to be harsh here, and excuse for doing so, but when you say there are people here who seem Ok with losing you are being completely ridiculous.  Just because people do not agree with your desire for more exciting games does not mean they are excited about losing.  The only people on this board that would be OK with losing (and there are a few) are those who would rather see their team lose so they can say they were right about McD, or Allen, or Beane , or whomever.  and that to me is just pathetic.

 

As for "The Process", I have asked you (I think you) this many times and have never gotten a clear response:  Name me successful organizations with our successful processes.  Again, just because you don't like the way this team goes about its business does not mean it's bad.

 

Your bias is shown in your last paragraph:  you can't stand more defensive games.  You don't like it.  To which I can only say:  too bad.  Because right now the Bills are 5-2, and in position to get to the playoffs.  And using their philosophy and process and whatever got them their first playoff berth in 17 years a couple years ago.

 

You have a decision to make as a fan:  whether you're more interested in style, or wins.  I know which side of that I come down on, every time.  I am a defense fan, but if the Bills were winning every game 42-38 with 500 yards passing a game, I'd be on board.  Sadly, I think I know which side you come down on.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

thanks, i didn't know before right now that a 300+ yard game was 100% a win

 

I didn't say that at all in my post. You could try re- reading it or, if you would like, I could re-write it using more one syllable words....

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

What would be interesting would be to X out those games in which both QBs threw for 300 yards. I suspect the winning percentage for the 300-yard throwers would go up. 

I think there is the common sense factor in that yardage has at least a decent correlation to YPA, and YPA is the key ingredient in passer rating. Team passer rating differential is the best predictor of success and failure in all of football. I'll take the QB who can put a team on his back and win in a shootout over the Christian Ponders of the world, thank you very much. 

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[C.Biscuit97]

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

[Mango]

3 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

So you have no need to work and that’s why you can research this ?

 

(powers been out for hours here)

 

Haha, me too. Saratoga area? 

 

Honestly it took some time, but I had no deadline, so it wasn't like wasting a day, I just did it over a few days.  It is amazing what you can get done in an hour long conference call, that could have been an email. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

And the winning percentage was just one game over .500.  So what does it mean?  What relevance does it have?

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I did that already & showed the details but it is beyond Billsfan1959's ability to grasp those stats & I also broke down winning & losing by games decided by 7 points or less. 

Perhaps you should look up the term "projection"

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

No it isn't, see posts above.  NO, KC, GB.....  MEH....  17-14 is the way to go......  Biulls won too 14-7 so there, it does work......? 

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Bills are stuck in another generation of football.  How many years in the last 20 have we been a bottom 5 passing team? It’s so sad that some fans make excuses for this.  You should watch other teams play. Throwing the football can be really exciting!

 

5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No it isn't, see posts above.  NO, KC, GB.....  MEH....  17-14 is the way to go......  Biulls won too 14-7 so there, it does work......? 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

 

EDIT: BTW, every one of those teams below the Bills run the ball more than they throw it.

 

Hmmmm....

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I am going to be harsh here, and excuse for doing so, but when you say there are people here who seem Ok with losing you are being completely ridiculous.  Just because people do not agree with your desire for more exciting games does not mean they are excited about losing.  The only people on this board that would be OK with losing (and there are a few) are those who would rather see their team lose so they can say they were right about McD, or Allen, or Beane , or whomever.  and that to me is just pathetic.

 

As for "The Process", I have asked you (I think you) this many times and have never gotten a clear response:  Name me successful organizations with our successful processes.  Again, just because you don't like the way this team goes about its business does not mean it's bad.

 

Your bias is shown in your last paragraph:  you can't stand more defensive games.  You don't like it.  To which I can only say:  too bad.  Because right now the Bills are 5-2, and in position to get to the playoffs.  And using their philosophy and process and whatever got them their first playoff berth in 17 years a couple years ago.

 

You have a decision to make as a fan:  whether you're more interested in style, or wins.  I know which side of that I come down on, every time.  I am a defense fan, but if the Bills were winning every game 42-38 with 500 yards passing a game, I'd be on board.  Sadly, I think I know which side you come down on.

 

 

Like football organization? Or company in general? Because I have seen you post this a few times, and mentioned how important culture is to any successful organization. 

I worked for a fortune 100 company that I thought had a pretty toxic culture. I work for a company approaching the 1B that has horrendous process, bordering on no process at all. I manage a single account/vendor that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and they have trouble getting out of their own way. I know Olympic gold medal coaches who run a toxic environment. I can name 100 instances of the inverse, businesses that are buttoned up, and close down. Companies that are great to work for, but have trouble getting by.  Coaches that develop great team culture and buy in, but can't actually coach their sport out of a paper bag. 

 

The point is, there are issues everywhere, with everything, everybody brings their own baggage, issues, inefficiencies to the table, and everybody has their own secret sauce as well. I wouldn't paint with such a broad brush, and assume that everybody is doing ABC.  

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

And the Bills do it without too much success...... 

 

And please don't point to the 5-2 record.

 

This is about 300 yard games.

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the Bills do it without too much success...... 

 

And please don't point to the 5-2 record.

 

This is about 300 yard games.

The poster I replied to said the Bills should try to join the rest of the league in throwing the football. You agreed with that poster. I pointed out that among all the winning teams, the Bills are somewhere around 6th in more passes than runs.

 

So, inspite of the fact that everything for you is about 300 yard games, the actual post I was replying to, and that you agreed with, was not.

 

And, of course, let's not ever point to a 5-2 record, as that says far less about this team than the fact they have not produced a 300+ yard passing game.

 

You just aren't very good at this, are you?

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

No. It's not.

Yes it is. 

[CincyBillsFan]

How in hell is Allen supposed to throw for 300 yards if this damn team can't execute simple screen passes?  Have you folks seen the article in the Buffalo News detailing the AMAZING production we have had throwing RB screen and TE/WR screen passes?  Here's what we've done this season:

 

*  5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!

 

*  6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!

 

And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage or an INT on the play.  If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is.  I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness.  Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense. 

 

Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs? 

 

This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems.  In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our inability to execute simple screen passes.  How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes?  75% of his total! 

 

Take another look at those numbers.  The last thing we should be crying about are the lack of 300 yard games.  That's the least of the passing games problems.  Not being able to execute simple screen passes puts enormous pressure on a 2nd year, raw project QB.  Throw in our less then explosive running game and this whole thread is barking up the wrong tree IMO.

 

We won't see many 300 yard games until we surround Allen with the talent to actually achieve this milestone.  I just hope we don't ruin a promising young QB in the process.

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Like football organization? Or company in general? Because I have seen you post this a few times, and mentioned how important culture is to any successful organization. 

I worked for a fortune 100 company that I thought had a pretty toxic culture. I work for a company approaching the 1B that has horrendous process, bordering on no process at all. I manage a single account/vendor that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and they have trouble getting out of their own way. I know Olympic gold medal coaches who run a toxic environment. I can name 100 instances of the inverse, businesses that are buttoned up, and close down. Companies that are great to work for, but have trouble getting by.  Coaches that develop great team culture and buy in, but can't actually coach their sport out of a paper bag. 

 

The point is, there are issues everywhere, with everything, everybody brings their own baggage, issues, inefficiencies to the table, and everybody has their own secret sauce as well. I wouldn't paint with such a broad brush, and assume that everybody is doing ABC.  

I think in general.  Successful organizations have cultures in place to drive their success.  They also have cultures that drive that success.  Is every process, every culture of successful organizations the same?  No.  I have seen more autocratic companies work well, I have seen more team oriented cultures where management actively seeks input (like where I work now) thrive.  I have seen each work poorly. 

 

The key is that, regardless of the processes or culture in place, that the organization remain faithful to their processes, and that employees recognize expectations and buy in to meeting those expectations.   Different employees work better or worse in different cultures.  I, for one, could never work in a culture that is autocratic in nature.  The Fortune 100 company you refer to I would not work well in if their culture was toxic; seems the same for you. 

 

In terms of the NFL, coaches have to know football of course, and know how to teach concepts, especially assistants.  A HC, to me is a CEO, and a big part of what he needs to do is establish a cl=ulture that fosters winning. And as with business, that can take different forms.  I think McD does so by constantly setting an expectation that those associated with the team, from coaches to water boys, have football as their focus, and seek continual improvement.

I just looked at the OP again, and note something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has aa bout 4.y5 years and /or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

How in hell is Allen supposed to throw for 300 yards if this damn team can't execute simple screen passes?  Have you folks seen the article in the Buffalo News detailing the AMAZING production we have had throwing RB screen and TE/WR screen passes?  Here's what we've done this season:

 

*  5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!

 

*  6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!

 

And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage or an INT on the play.  If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is.  I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness.  Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense. 

 

Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs? 

 

This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems.  In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our inability to execute simple screen passes.  How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes?  75% of his total! 

 

Take another look at those numbers.  The last thing we should be crying about are the lack of 300 yard games.  That's the least of the passing games problems.  Not being able to execute simple screen passes puts enormous pressure on a 2nd year, raw project QB.  Throw in our less then explosive running game and this whole thread is barking up the wrong tree IMO.

 

We won't see many 300 yard games until we surround Allen with the talent to actually achieve this milestone.  I just hope we don't ruin a promising young QB in the process.

 

 

 

 

Agreed and say it over & over, that we need to see this Offense play for 4 quarters.  The OC I think is terrible, the overall coaching philosophy & the play between the 20's & no mistakes football has gone the way of the dodo......

 

I want to see what the Bills have in Allen & have no confidence that this staff is doing the job.

[oldmanfan]

I just looked at the OP again, and noted something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has about 4.5 years and/or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No they'll tell you Brady threw for 505 & lost to the Eagles.....  They're too smart to debate with.....? 

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

[C.Biscuit97]

32 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

The top ten teams in throwing the ball are Atlanta, Cincinnati, Chargers, Miami, Chiefs, Giants, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Arizona. The Bills currently throw the ball 56.1% of the time; which puts them right below teams like NE, New Orleans, and Green Bay, and ahead of teams like the 49ers, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia - You know, almost all of the teams with winning records.

 

EDIT: BTW, every one of those teams below the Bills run the ball more than they throw it.

 

Hmmmm....

Come on 59. You twisted those stats.  Those are the top 10 in attempts, which would be the bad teams because they have to throw more because they are losing. 

 

For the actual passing stats that matter, yards, it’s a much different list.

 

Atl - their offense is not the reason they are losing

KC - ?

dal - ? and it’s funny because they have one of the best rbs and a lot of people crap on Dak

Rams - 5-3, SB runner up

Lions - ok

LAC - unluckiest team on the planet

NE - Brady sucks 

GB - 7-1 ?

TB - Winston kills them with turnovers 

Hou - playoff team

NO - 7-1 and freaking Teddy Bridgewater is capable of monster passing games

 

?

4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

Allen is a lot closer to Tyrod than Mahomes.

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

I don't think any one who continues to debate here is doing so to protecting Allen. 

 

They are protecting The Process & McD who has coached 40 games for the Bills & not had a QB throw for 300 yards.  Last I checked 8 weeks into the season only Pittsburgh (Big Ben injured) and the dumpster fire Miami (who did throw for 272 vs. Buffalo) are the only teams this year outside Buffalo who haven't. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

I don't have a mancrush on Allen, and I couldn't stand Tyrod. Allen has a lot to prove and I can rationally and objectively go through a list of things he hasn't done well or needs to greatly improve on. He is not anywhere near where he needs to be at this point to be the franchise guy for years to come. However, whether or not he is throwing for 300+ yards is so far down the list of important things that its worth is negligible.

 

I'm sorry you are on the losing end of the debate and can no longer intellectually defend your position - to the point where you have to respond from an emotional perspective in calling people ignorant, suffering from dementia, etc. I can send you a cyber hug if that will make you feel better. 

[Nextmanup]

11 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

It's worse than that; they are suffering from religious delusions.

 

For whatever reason, most Bills fans who participate at online message boards like this simply refuse to view things objectively.

 

It's a religion for them and they view most things as a matter of faith.

 

A lot of them also can't distinguish between that which is, and that which is what I wish it to be.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I just looked at the OP again, and noted something to keep in mind with all the back and forth going on.  The OP defined his sample size and population:  QBs with either 6 years in the league or 32 starts.  So given that, perhaps some here who are all up in arms about Josh Allen not having a 300 yard day yet can explain why you are so crazed over this, since he has about 4.5 years and/or another season worth of starts before he would even fit into the data set put forth in the OP?

 

Or to put it another way, if he has a 300 yard day this Sunday, will you just shut up for a while?

Let me correct this:  the OP also includes in his data analysis Qbs that were drafted from 2017-2019 that have had at least one start.

 

so, again while I commend the OP for his work, I review scientific manuscripts for publication, and if the OP submitted this data set for publication I'd have to reject it.  Because of the sampling methodology.  To compare Qbs with at least 32 starts or 6 years in the league with, say a 2019 draftee with a few starts, is an apples and oranges comparison.  The OP acknowledges you can't really make projections base on the data he's extracted, and folks advocating that should pay heed.

[CincyBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I'd say too ignorant.   Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen. 

 

I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.

 

I think the push back is against people blaming Allen for the lack of 300 yard games as if he's the main reason for not hitting that number.

 

If you put Mahommes on this offense in 2018 & 2019 with every thing else the same I'm not convinced he would have a 300 yard game yet.  Are you?

 

I also bet that if Allen had been QBing the Chiefs the last 2 years he would have had multiple 300 yard games.

 

BTW, did you see the Buffalo News breakdown of the Bill's struggles with the screen pass?  This season they are 11/16 for 34 yards throwing screen passes to their RB's, TE's & WR's!  That's an extraordinary lack of production that can not be blamed on Allen.   Hell only attempting these kind of passes twice per game is alarming.  Oh and before you say Allen missed his screen receivers those incompletions were all the result of deliberate throwaways because the D was sitting on the play.

 

As for having a "man crush" on Allen being the reason we defend him, well all I can say is that if Allen doesn't work out the Bills are set back another 3 - 5 years.  And who wants that?  Only someone suffering from dementia wouldn't give Allen until the end of his 3rd year to see if he's the guy.  And if he isn't then we're back to square one in the draft. 

 

So yea we desperately want him to succeed and this involves giving him the benefit of the doubt.  And that's not to hard to do when you see numbers like how many and how crappy the Bills screen pass game is.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[billsfan1959]

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on 59. You twisted those stats.  Those are the top 10 in attempts, which would be the bad teams because they have to throw more because they are losing. 

 

For the actual passing stats that matter, yards, it’s a much different list.

 

Atl - their offense is not the reason they are losing

KC - ?

dal - ? and it’s funny because they have one of the best rbs and a lot of people crap on Dak

Rams - 5-3, SB runner up

Lions - ok

LAC - unluckiest team on the planet

NE - Brady sucks 

GB - 7-1 ?

TB - Winston kills them with turnovers 

Hou - playoff team

NO - 7-1 and freaking Teddy Bridgewater is capable of monster passing games

 

?

Allen is a lot closer to Tyrod than Mahomes.

I didn't twist anything Biscuit. You stated the Bills should join the rest of the NFL in throwing the ball. Their pass to run ratio among  winning teams in the top 5. How effective they are at throwing the ball is a different story. In that respect, I agree they are not where I feel they should be if they want to compete at a championship level.

 

However, I am not hung up on the arbitrary 300+ yard game as a barometer of anything. The vast majority of those games are done with a 40+ attempts and the 300+ yard games with less than 40 attempts include at least one or two 50 - 60+ yard completions. Allen's strength this year is not the deep ball. I have no idea what the issue is; however, it just isn't there. Until it is, or until we see receivers turn short /intermediate passes into 60-70 yard gains, we are probably are not going to see that 300 yard game.

 

What Allen has done, is greatly improve his short game and accuracy in the short to intermediate range. So much so, that he is one of the higher rated QBs in passes within 25 yards of the LOS.  Rather than a 300 yard game, I would like to see better ball security and more consistency across an entire game. It is also not all on Allen. I would like to see, less mistakes and penalties (especially in critical moments); more separation by receivers and someone other than the top one or two receivers who can actually reliably catch the ball (or at least not drop the critical ones); more play designs in that 15-25 yard range (which I believe is his strength and could lead to those 300+ yard games); and a better run game to support the passing game - all of which is as much on coaching and other players as it is on Allen. 

 

I would also like to see a few games of turning Allen loose to the tune of 40-45 pass attempts.

 

He is a long way from where I would like him to be; however, he has shown me the potential and I think he can get there. It is just going to take some time. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959