20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

It is progress. I don't think anyone worth their salt would not tell you Josh Allen is a better Quarterback in 2019 than 2018. The question is whether it is sufficient progress. My benchmark before the season was Trubisky's 2nd year. At the moment he is behind that pace in every major category.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is progress. I don't think anyone worth their salt would not tell you Josh Allen is a better Quarterback in 2019 than 2018. The question is whether it is sufficient progress. My benchmark before the season was Trubisky's 2nd year. At the moment he is behind that pace in every major category.  

 

Your benchmark, huh?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Your benchmark, huh?

 

 

 

That was where I felt Josh roughly needed to be to be "on track", yes. I felt really good about Josh through 3 weeks. Less good since then. I fear since New England they have tried to reign him in too much. I don't want to watch reigned in Josh Allen. I wanna see the guy throw it and evaluate what we have. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

That was where I felt Josh roughly needed to be to be "on track", yes. I felt really good about Josh through 3 weeks. Less good since then. I fear since New England they have tried to reign him in too much. I don't want to watch reigned in Josh Allen. I wanna see the guy throw it and evaluate what we have. 

Well at least we can agree the offensive game plans of late leave a LOT to be desired.

 

I'm not so warm an fuzzy on Daboll, but I think it's night and day when it comes to comparing Josh last year to Josh this year.

 

[DuckyBoys]

20 hours ago, StHustle said:

Anyone else find it strange that both Tyrod and Josh went from pretty good deep ball passers their first year starting to terrible at it in year 2?

coaching staff harping about no turnovers leads to overthinking an hesitation   Tyrod started throwing deep balls out bounds fearing he would leave one inside the get picked off Allen seems to be trying to hit guys perfectly in stride 60 yards downfield.  He needs to give his guy an opportunity to make a play.  This style of play were running on both sides of the ball does not leave much room for error.  Bills are going to need to invest in some more explosive players on offense and get more creative in getting them into open space. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

 I think overall you are right. But most of that comes into play whether a QB puts up a single 300 yard game in the first 15 games. IE coaching, matchupe etc. all fall into place by week one or 15. Allen is at 19 now. It is pretty rarefied air, the company is not great there. Does it mean he can't be the next great QB? No. But he would definitely be the very first to do so. 

So I’m curious (and I mean this sincerely, not sarcastically) does your concern go away if he throws for 300 yards on Sunday, or is there another benchmark you will track after that?  300 yard game frequency maybe?

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

So I’m curious (and I mean this sincerely, not sarcastically) does your concern go away if he throws for 300 yards on Sunday, or is there another benchmark you will track after that?  300 yard game frequency maybe?

Yep 1 takes the monkey off their back (Bills Coaching Staff & McD), from there I then want to see multiple games where we can rely on Allen to be the catalyst for the team and scoring in the high 20's-30;'s......,  

[TwistofFate]

Add another 300+ yard win with jimmy gs 300+ yard performance to the record. 

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Add another 300+ yard win with jimmy gs 300+ yard performance to the record. 

So, with Jimmy G's performance, 300+ yard passers this week were 5-4...

 

What record are you talking about? 

 

Add another senseless post to your record...

[US Egg]

So you have no need to work and that’s why you can research this ?

 

(powers been out for hours here)

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

So, with Jimmy G's performance, 300+ yard passers this week were 5-4...

 

What record are you talking about? 

 

Add another senseless post to your record...

Remarkable, isn't it?

 

You know what would be funny?  If Josh throws for 400 yards Sunday.  I swear some would still come on here and say he still hasn't thrown specifically for 300

[billsfan1959]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Remarkable, isn't it?

 

You know what would be funny?  If Josh throws for 400 yards Sunday.  I swear some would still come on here and say he still hasn't thrown specifically for 300

It is as if some posters have no understanding, whatsoever, of football.

 

They can package it in any way they wish; however, each and every one of their posts says the same thing: "I have no idea why, but, I WANT what I WANT, and I WANT it NOW!!!! And if I don't get it, I am going to post the same thing over and over and over and over in every thread."

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

It is as if some posters have no understanding, whatsoever, of football.

 

They can package it in any way they wish; however, each and every one of their posts says the same thing: "I have no idea why, but, I WANT what I WANT, and I WANT it NOW!!!! And if I don't get it, I am going to post the same thing over and over and over and over in every thread."

I actually commend the OP for his work.  It's interesting data.  It's just that it's hard to imply it means what some think it means, because of the complexity of all the variables that can affect whether QB X throws for a lot of yards. 

 

The NFL for years has been a copy cat league.  The fad now is to have QBs that can throw it all over the filed, and somewhat justifiable given that DBs aren't allowed to play defense anymore, and that QBs are treated more carefully than endangered species.  If I were a forward thinking NFL OC, I would go the opposite route.  I would harken back to the old Bills of the AFL days, get two big backs like Cookie and Wray Carleton, and pound the ball at defenses who now are more designed for pass protection. 

[billsfan1959]

12 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep 1 takes the monkey off their back (Bills Coaching Staff & McD), from there I then want to see multiple games where we can rely on Allen to be the catalyst for the team and scoring in the high 20's-30;'s......,  

He was kind of the catalyst for the team in his five 4th quarter comebacks or seven game winning drives, wouldn't you say?

 

Catalyst: a person or thing that precipitates an event; an agent that provokes or speeds significant change or action

 

Call me crazy; however, when a team needs a score to win and the QB leads that team down the field for a score, that sort of qualifies, no?

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Billsfan1972]

So here is the 2019 to date records based on 300 yard passing games

 

37 W 33 L & 2 T (Week one Stafford & Murray).

 

Now the interesting stat 14 of the losses were in games where the winning QB too threw for over 300 yards.

 

Here is where some of you need a refresher course.....  When both QB's throw for 300 yards, it means that they needed to score points and passing yards were important & thus loss was not really due to the team throwing for 300, but the other team throwing for over 300......

 

For example Week 1 bother Keenum & Wentz threw for over 300 in a 32-27 game.  Yes Keenum lost, but throwing for 300 resulted in a close game.....  The only tie had both Murray & Stafford over 300, without 300 one would have I bet lost the game.  

 

Of the 14 losses where both threw for 300, 9 were decided by less then a TD.

Of the 23 300 yard passing game where only the winning QB threw for that amount, 10 won by less then a TD, which tells me 300 was very important to help win the game.

Of the 19 losses where only the losing QB threw for 300. 13 lost by less then a TD.....  Which says that throwing for over 300 kept them in the game and a game that was decided by less then one possession.

 

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

No. It's not.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So here is the 2019 to date records based on 300 yard passing games

 

37 W 33 L & 2 T (Week one Stafford & Murray).

 

Now the interesting stat 14 of the losses were in games where the winning QB too threw for over 300 yards.

 

Here is where some of you need a refresher course.....  When both QB's throw for 300 yards, it means that they needed to score points and passing yards were important & thus loss was not really due to the team throwing for 300, but the other team throwing for over 300......

 

For example Week 1 bother Keenum & Wentz threw for over 300 in a 32-27 game.  Yes Keenum lost, but throwing for 300 resulted in a close game.....  The only tie had both Murray & Stafford over 300, without 300 one would have I bet lost the game.  

 

Of the 14 losses where both threw for 300, 9 were decided by less then a TD.

Of the 23 300 yard passing game where only the winning QB threw for that amount, 10 won by less then a TD, which tells me 300 was very important to help win the game.

Of the 19 losses where only the losing QB threw for 300. 13 lost by less then a TD.....

 

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

Well, not really.  I can take this data and just as easily say it means that defense is the most important thing to winning, and that teams with poor pass defense are at higher risk for losing.  Or I could say that teams with ineffective running games can't control the ball, and keep the other team's offense off the field, so the other team has more opportunities to pass.  It could mean you had good matchups against a team's defense.   And so on.

 

I would be delighted if Josh threw for 301 yards Sunday afternoon.  But only if that was done in the context of a win.  It still boggles the mind that some here are more interested in passing yards than victories. 

 

 

[soflabillsfan1]

Since the 1990 season, only 1 Super bowl winning QB has not thrown for 300 yards in the regular season or playoffs.  That was Trent Dilfer in 2000.  Stop saying 300 yard games don't mean anything.  The numbers say otherwise.  At some point in the season, you're going to need to be able to push the ball downfield through the air.  The guys like Trent and EJ couldn't do that.  That's why they're not in the league anymore.

[Brand J]

Anyone who says that having the ability to throw the ball up and down the field doesn’t equate to much (in the passing game era) is simply a lost cause for this discussion.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

Since the 1990 season, only 1 Super bowl winning QB has not thrown for 300 yards in the regular season or playoffs.  That was Trent Dilfer in 2000.  Stop saying 300 yard games don't mean anything.  The numbers say otherwise.  At some point in the season, you're going to need to be able to push the ball downfield through the air.  The guys like Trent and EJ couldn't do that.  That's why they're not in the league anymore.

Let's say you have a QB that throws one 300 yard game.  That in statistical terms is a N (sample size) of one.  From a statistical perspective you cannot base any conclusion on an N of one.

 

As I said above, I would be delighted if Josh throws for 300 yards Sunday.  But if they lose, then it means nothing other than a loss.

2 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Anyone who says that having the ability to throw the ball up and down the field doesn’t equate to much (in the passing game era) is simply a lost cause for this discussion.

It is whether it means anything in term's of a QB's relative ability or lack thereof.  And passing yardage involves a whole host of variables other than the QB himself.

[soflabillsfan1]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Let's say you have a QB that throws one 300 yard game.  That in statistical terms is a N (sample size) of one.  From a statistical perspective you cannot base any conclusion on an N of one.

 

As I said above, I would be delighted if Josh throws for 300 yards Sunday.  But if they lose, then it means nothing other than a loss.

 

Not making a conclusion.  Just pointing out that in the last 28 years, 27 SB winning Qb's have thrown for 300 yards during the season and only 1 hasn't.  

[Putin]

On 10/30/2019 at 9:54 PM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

300 yards passing just doesn’t mean that much. I don’t understand why Bills fans are obsessed with it. Just win the games. Most of the big passing days are teams playing catch up from behind. Just beat people. Who cares what the passing yards are? I think Matt Schaub threw for like 450 yards last week. They were getting beat all day and in the end, it means nothing. I get that people assume it’s a negative because it’s much more common then we see but we haven’t really needed it. That’s probably a good thing.

We lost to Eagles by more then 2 TD’s and our passing game was UNDER 200 yards against one of the worst secondary in the NFL , I’m not the one who cares about stats I care about winning , but when you are down by more then 2 scores , and you have to throw the ball and you CAN NOT complete a pass then IMO it’s an issue , 

one more point I want to make is this IF our D is having a bad day and we get to a shootout I’m NOT at all confident that we could win a game like that Especially if we are going against a decent defense!

Edited November 1, 2019 by Putin

[billsfan1959]

6 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Anyone who says that having the ability to throw the ball up and down the field doesn’t equate to much (in the passing game era) is simply a lost cause for this discussion.

 

Nobody said that. 

 

Just now, soflabillsfan1 said:

 

Not making a conclusion.  Just pointing out that in the last 28 years, 27 SB winning Qb's have thrown for 300 yards during the season and only 1 hasn't.  

 

If you are not making a conclusion, then what is your point?

[soflabillsfan1]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

Nobody said that. 

 

 

If you are not making a conclusion, then what is your point?

Just point out facts.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, soflabillsfan1 said:

Just point out facts.

It would be nice if you somehow tied those facts to what you would like to say in some meaningful way. 

[soflabillsfan1]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

It would be nice if you somehow tied those facts to what you would like to say in some meaningful way. 

Nah, that's ok. 

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

 

Not making a conclusion.  Just pointing out that in the last 28 years, 27 SB winning Qb's have thrown for 300 yards during the season and only 1 hasn't.  

And this defense is Elite & on par with that Baltimore Defense from what some were stating a few weeks ago.

 

Yes it is a lost cause as i just broke down the stats to show that 300 yard games were thrown in many games decided by less then a TD (both ways) and still some people don't grasp that it is a stat that correlates to competitive games & wins almost always.

 

These people seem to be completely mesmerized by McDermott's defensive & ball control mantra.   

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

Nah, that's ok. 

I didn't think so. At least you recognize how ridiculous it would be to defend something like a QB who won a SB and threw for one 300 yard game during that season as meaning anything at all...

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And this defense is Elite & on par with that Baltimore Defense from what some were stating a few weeks ago.

 

Yes it is a lost cause as i just broke down the stats to show that 300 yard games were thrown in many games decided by less then a TD (both ways) and still some people don't grasp that it is a stat that correlates to competitive games & wins almost always.

 

These people seem to be completely mesmerized by McDermott's defensive & ball control mantra.   

You didn't break down anything in any meaningful way at all. Seriously - are you that delusional?

 

Edit: There is actually real statistical breakdowns that show 300 yard games are not correlated to "wins almost always"

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[soflabillsfan1]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I didn't think so. At least you recognize how ridiculous it would be to defend something like a QB who won a SB and threw for one 300 yard game during that season as meaning anything at all...

You didn't break down anything in any meaningful way at all. Seriously - are you that delusional?

Are you having a bad day?

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I didn't think so. At least you recognize how ridiculous it would be to defend something like a QB who won a SB and threw for one 300 yard game during that season as meaning anything at all...

You didn't break down anything in any meaningful way at all. Seriously - are you that delusional?

Read it again....  I broke down all the 300 yard games this year, how many resulted in games decided by a TD or less, where both threw for 300 and losing QB's throwing for 300 where the result was a close game & that means nothing?

 

Let me guess to you the only meaningful stat was Matt Schaub throwing for 450 and the game was not close?

 

You're a lost cause.  

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

Just now, soflabillsfan1 said:

Are you having a bad day?

Nope. I rarely have a bad day. I am just pointing out that citing something like almost every QB that has won a SB had at least one 300 yard game that season, with no further analyses or context,  has about as much meaning as saying every QB that has won a game played at night, did so after the sun went down.

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Read it again....  I broke down all the 300 yard games this year, how many resulted in games decided by a TD or less, where both threw for 300 and losing QB's throwing for 300 where the result was a close game & that means nothing?

 

Let me guess to you the only meaningful stat was Matt Schaub throwing for 450 and the game was not close?

 

You're a lost cause.  

 

You didn't break down anything in any meaningful way. Would I love to see our QB throw for 300 yards every week? Sure, if it was in the process of playing a good, winning football. However, 300 yards is simply an arbitrary measurement. There is no statistical analyses that show 300 yard games equal wins. It doesn't exist. Please, if you can find it, present it and I will be more than willing to objectively look at it.

 

Also: you failed to answer my question I posed to to you in a previous post about your wanting to see Allen as a catalyst for the team. So, I will ask you again:

 

When a team needs a score to win and the QB leads that team down the field for a score, that qualifies, Right? So, wouldn't you agree that Allen was the catalyst for the team in his five 4th quarter comebacks or seven game winning drives?

[soflabillsfan1]

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Nope. I rarely have a bad day. I am just pointing out that citing something like almost every QB that has won a SB had at least one 300 yard game that season, with no further analyses or context,  has about as much meaning as saying every QB that has won a game played at night, did so after the sun went down.

I cited the fact that 27 out of the last 28 SB winning QB's have thrown for over 300 yards that season. (That's a bit more important then what time a game is played) Then I gave my opinion.  In the context of a season, eventually you'll need a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air.  If you don't have that, you're much less likely to win a SB unless you have a top 3 of all time defense. 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

I cited the fact that 27 out of the last 28 SB winning QB's have thrown for over 300 yards that season. (That's a bit more important then what time a game is played) Then I gave my opinion.  In the context of a season, eventually you'll need a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air.  If you don't have that, you're much less likely to win a SB unless you have a top 3 of all time defense. 

And I pointed out that citing "27 out of the last 28 SB winning QB's have thrown for over 300 yards that season" without any further analyses or context is meaningless. Period.

 

Also, having a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air when needed is a completely different discussion. A QB can do just that and still not pass for 300 yards in that game.

[Billsfan1972]

Billsfan1959 just refuses to evaluate or see anything meaningful about 300 yard games.  Sure he thinks Rodgers, Brees, Brady & Mahomes.... only throw to pad #'s too.....

 

Now to your last point....  If Allen had thrown for 300 yards in many of their wins, the Bills in all likelihood would not have needed to come back in the 4th.....

 

And remember I'm a Allen supporter, think he has the ability and skills to be the franchise QB & have placed 70% (or more) blame on the OC, the overall coaching philosophy & the lack of offensive personnel.

[soflabillsfan1]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

And I pointed out that citing "27 out of the last 28 SB winning QB's have thrown for over 300 yards that season" without any further analyses or context is meaningless. Period.

 

Also, having a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air when needed is a completely different discussion. A QB can do just that and still not pass for 300 yards in that game.

Well that's your opinion and i disagree.

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

And I pointed out that citing "27 out of the last 28 SB winning QB's have thrown for over 300 yards that season" without any further analyses or context is meaningless. Period.

 

Also, having a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air when needed is a completely different discussion. A QB can do just that and still not pass for 300 yards in that game.

Riddle me this.....  Name 1 who hasn't thrown for 300 yards??

 

I'll answer it for you.....  There has not been a single one......

[billsfan1959]

18 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Billsfan1959 just refuses to evaluate or see anything meaningful about 300 yard games.  Sure he thinks Rodgers, Brees, Brady & Mahomes.... only throw to pad #'s too.....

 

Now to your last point....  If Allen had thrown for 300 yards in many of their wins, the Bills in all likelihood would not have needed to come back in the 4th.....

 

And remember I'm a Allen supporter, think he has the ability and skills to be the franchise QB & have placed 70% (or more) blame on the OC, the overall coaching philosophy & the lack of offensive personnel.

 Let me ask you and @soflabillsfan1a question:

 

In Tom Brady's first SB win, he had one 300 yard game during the regular season and one during the playoffs. In those two games, he averaged 53 attempts to reach 300 yds, threw for 2 TDs and 1 INT, and averaged 22.5 points per game. In fact, in the playoff game in which he threww for 300 yards, he didn't have a touchdown and the defense bailed him out in a 16-13 win.

 

In the Super Bowl, he threw for 145 yds. Yet, when his team needed him, he pushed the ball downfield and put his team in position to kick the game winning field goal.

 

What was more meaningful? The 300 yard games or the ability to carry his team when he needed to.

 

I suppose we could use your simple analysis above and say if Brady threw for 300 yards in the Super Bowl, he wouldn't have had to come back with a game winning drive in the 4th quarter. 

 

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Riddle me this.....  Name 1 who hasn't thrown for 300 yards??

 

I'll answer it for you.....  There has not been a single one......

 

My statement you responded to was "having a QB that can push the ball downfield through the air when needed is a completely different discussion. A QB can do just that and still not pass for 300 yards in that game." Allen led his team to wins in a number of games and didn't throw for 300 yards. Did you even read what I wrote before responding?

 

Still haven't answered my question on Allen being a catalyst for the team.

 

You are the cyber equivalent of a 3 year old throwing a tantrum in a store because his mommy didn't buy him the candy bar he wanted...

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Royale with Cheese]

17 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Billsfan1959 just refuses to evaluate or see anything meaningful about 300 yard games.  Sure he thinks Rodgers, Brees, Brady & Mahomes.... only throw to pad #'s too.....

 

Now to your last point....  If Allen had thrown for 300 yards in many of their wins, the Bills in all likelihood would not have needed to come back in the 4th.....

 

And remember I'm a Allen supporter, think he has the ability and skills to be the franchise QB & have placed 70% (or more) blame on the OC, the overall coaching philosophy & the lack of offensive personnel.

 

In the NFL this year, there have been 72 games of QB's throwing for 300 yards.  37 of those games ended up in wins....51% of the time.  

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 Let me ask you and @soflabillsfan1a question:

 

In Tom Brady's first SB win, he had one 300 yard game during the regular season and one during the playoffs. In those two games, he averaged 53 attempts to reach 300 yds, threw for 2 TDs and 1 INT, and averaged 22.5 points per game. In fact, in the playoff game in which he threww for 300 yards, he didn't have a touchdown and the defense bailed him out in a 16-13 win.

 

In the Super Bowl, he threw for 145 yds. Yet, when his team needed him, he pushed the ball downfield and put his team in position to kick the game winning field goal.

 

What was more meaningful? The 300 yard games or the ability to carry his team when he needed to.

 

I suppose we could use your simple analysis above and say if Brady threw for 300 yards in the Super Bowl, he wouldn't have had to come back with a game winning drive in the 4th quarter. 

 

Allen led his team to wins in a number of games and didn't throw for 300 yards. Did you even read what I wrote before responding?

 

Still haven't answered my question on Allen being a catalyst for the team.

 

You are the cyber equivalent of a 3 year old throwing a tantrum in a store because his mommy didn't buy him the candy bar he wanted...

I'll wave the white flag because you have proved yourself incapable of reading a post or logical thinking.  

 

I have stated over & over that I want to see the offense play 4 quarters of offense (not just the 4th).  

 

I have stated over and over that I do like Allen, think he will be a very good player & blame most of the offensive shortcomings on the coaching staff and philosophy, but won't be sure until I see that 300 yard game, multiple games where he plays well for 4 quarters and see games where we consistently score high 20's-30's.  I'd love to win a shootout.

 

Brady was not the anointed one back then, was a 6th round pick thrown in only because of a season ending injury and was  only a game manager.  By season 2 he was the bonafied starter and had 3 300 yard games & 28 TDs vs. 14 ints.....