Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DCOrange

538's Current Projections (Bills finish at 11-5)

Recommended Posts

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Understood that some people roll their eyes at 538, but I always enjoy looking at them as another data point. They currently project the Bills' chances to win each upcoming game as follows:

 

Vs. Eagles: 58%

Vs. Washington: 81%

@ Cleveland: 51%

@ Miami: 70%

Vs. Denver: 72%

@ Dallas: 36%

Vs. Baltimore: 49%

@ Pittsburgh: 52%

@ New England: 21%

Vs. Jets: 68%

 

Technically that gives us a 12-4 record if every game goes according to projections but I'm guessing they end up at 11 for their projections due to how many of those games are viewed as roughly 50-50.

 

That all adds up to a 78% of making the playoffs at the moment, the 4th highest chances in the AFC behind only New England, Kansas City, and Baltimore. In terms of winning the Super Bowl though, they have Buffalo with the 6th best chances in the AFC and 13th best odds in the league.

  • Awesome! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year. A playoff team, yes, due in part to the easiest schedule in the NFL. A super bowl team? No. At least not at this stage of the season. If they peak at the right time tho, anything can happen...

  • Like (+1) 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???  ;);) 

 

  • Haha (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11-5 should definitely be enough to make the playoffs.  Even 10-6 this year should get it done.  The AFC is filled with crap teams...Chargers find new and interesting ways to lose each week just like they have for the past 3 years running now, Colts and Texans are slugging it out for the division and the other will likely be the wild card team, and there is really nobody else on the radar for the other wildcard spot than the Bills, who will likely be the 1st wildcard with the NFL's easiest schedule in their back pocket.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Understood that some people roll their eyes at 538, but I always enjoy looking at them as another data point. They currently project the Bills' chances to win each upcoming game as follows:

 

Vs. Eagles: 58%

Vs. Washington: 81%

@ Cleveland: 51%

@ Miami: 70%

Vs. Denver: 72%

@ Dallas: 36%

Vs. Baltimore: 49%

@ Pittsburgh: 52%

@ New England: 21%

Vs. Jets: 68%

 

Technically that gives us a 12-4 record if every game goes according to projections but I'm guessing they end up at 11 for their projections due to how many of those games are viewed as roughly 50-50.

 

That all adds up to a 78% of making the playoffs at the moment, the 4th highest chances in the AFC behind only New England, Kansas City, and Baltimore. In terms of winning the Super Bowl though, they have Buffalo with the 6th best chances in the AFC and 13th best odds in the league.

IMO the Eagles will be a true test for the Bills D They have 3 or 4 good WR and a QB capable of moving around.  Their D is extremely banged up but if their is a weakness for Buffalo it is your O starting off slow... they Eagles will also be playing angry after a humiliating loss.

 

I think the Bills handle the Browns who are poorly coached and well under achieving. 
 

Dallas, that depends on which team shows up.. they are so inconsistent I could see an easy win for the Bills or an ugly loss depending on which team shows for them. 

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the Eagles will be a test for the Bills D.   no need for TRUE.   True came against NE.

 

I think the Eagles D is more the issue here.   

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Browns will be competing with the lesser of Colts/Texans for that 6th seed. The Bills will be either #1 or #5, depending on how things go with the Patriots.

 

The two teams with a shot at the #1 seed appear to be the Patriots and Bills...

 

Kansas City is going to take more lumps with Mahomes out

Houston and Indianapolis will continue to grind in that division with the winner being 9-7 or 10-6

Baltimore will win the division but probably finish 10-6 or so

 

The #2 seed could really be 10-6 this year. It's crazy. The Bills could be 12-4 and be stuck with the 5 seed despite a better record than the 4, 3, and 2 seeds.

 

But here's the interesting thing... We are one New England injury away from being the favorite for the #1 seed, folks, and we have a fighting chance for it even without that. Beane needs to go all in to put the pieces in place to secure that #1 seed! It's ALL about New England. Jets beat them tonight and the race for #1 is officially ON...

Edited by Giuseppe Tognarelli

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I think the Browns will be competing with the lesser of Colts/Texans for that 6th seed. The Bills will be either #1 or #5, depending on how things go with the Patriots.

 

The two teams with a shot at the #1 seed appear to be the Patriots and Bills...

 

Kansas City is going to take more lumps with Mahomes out

Houston and Indianapolis will continue to grind in that division with the winner being 9-7 or 10-6

Baltimore will win the division but probably finish 10-6 or so

 

The #2 seed could really be 10-6 this year. It's crazy. The Bills could be 12-4 and be stuck with the 5 seed despite a better record than the 4, 3, and 2 seeds.

 

But here's the interesting thing... We are one New England injury away from being the favorite for the #1 seed, folks, and we have a fighting chance for it even without that. Beane needs to go all in to put the pieces in place to secure that #1 seed! It's ALL about New England. Jets beat them tonight and the race for #1 is officially ON...

 

Follow the playoff thread.   The Browns are the 10th seed.   4 places out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

538 also predicted Hillary would win in a landslide. 

well... she kind of did   in the popular vote. 

 

  • Meh 1
  • Skeptical 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I think the Browns will be competing with the lesser of Colts/Texans for that 6th seed. The Bills will be either #1 or #5, depending on how things go with the Patriots.

 

The two teams with a shot at the #1 seed appear to be the Patriots and Bills...

 

Kansas City is going to take more lumps with Mahomes out

Houston and Indianapolis will continue to grind in that division with the winner being 9-7 or 10-6

Baltimore will win the division but probably finish 10-6 or so

 

The #2 seed could really be 10-6 this year. It's crazy. The Bills could be 12-4 and be stuck with the 5 seed despite a better record than the 4, 3, and 2 seeds.

 

But here's the interesting thing... We are one New England injury away from being the favorite for the #1 seed, folks, and we have a fighting chance for it even without that. Beane needs to go all in to put the pieces in place to secure that #1 seed! It's ALL about New England. Jets beat them tonight and the race for #1 is officially ON...

As much as I'd love for us to get that number 1 seed, that's a tall order my friend.   Yes, anything can happen, and there is alot of football left to be played, but New England technically has a two game lead on us, since they own the head to head tiebreaker.  

 

I'm truly excited to see how this season plays out, and I haven't been this hopeful for the Bills in well over a decade.  A 5-1 start, no matter how you look at it, is a 5-1 start, and I absolutely do not see the Bills having any kind of collapse or meltdown.  McDermott is too good of a coach to let that happen.  At this point in the season, I'm predicting us to go 11-5.  

 

I will be watching the game tonight and screaming for a Jets victory, which I think is very possible after seeing what they did to Dallas...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Follow the playoff thread.   The Browns are the 10th seed.   4 places out. 

 

Doesn't matter. Check out their schedule. I am not saying they will suddenly work as a team and reach their potential, but if they do, they might be a serious threat if they beat us. Even if they lose to Pats now, they still might win out the rest and finish 11-5, or 10-6 with tiebreaker over us.

 

I don't think we need to care since I do believe we will end up 11-5 or better, but I wouldn't write them off yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

538 also predicted Hillary would win in a landslide. 

 

They were actually lower on her chances than basically anybody else. I think by election day they were giving her roughly a 67% chance of winning compared to most of the other projections being in the 80-90% range.

 

Like I said, I enjoy looking at them as just another data point. Just because something has a less than 50% chance of happening and then happens doesn't mean they were wrong. It just means the unlikelier outcome occurred.

Edited by DCOrange
  • Like (+1) 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year. A playoff team, yes, due in part to the easiest schedule in the NFL. A super bowl team? No. At least not at this stage of the season. If they peak at the right time tho, anything can happen...

I whole heartedly agree with your last sentence. Super Bowl winners start to peak in December and roll into the playoffs. Many times those teams struggled early in the year and even had games that they lost bad. The fact that the Bills have won 5 games while struggling can in fact be this type of situation. The Offense can get better. Special teams has already improved. We will see if they start to put together complete games in convincing fashion in December. All it takes is a chance. There is no one team in the league that is just that much better this year. The Pats have Offense issues and they will lose some games soon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Follow the playoff thread.   The Browns are the 10th seed.   4 places out. 

I know where they currently stand. :P I'm saying I expect them to be competing with the Colts or Texans for #6 when all is said and done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???  ;);) 

 

I had 10-6 when camp started. The AFC weakening a bit (Roethlisberger going down, especially - I had that game as a loss) has bumped my expectation to 11-5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year. A playoff team, yes, due in part to the easiest schedule in the NFL. A super bowl team? No. At least not at this stage of the season. If they peak at the right time tho, anything can happen...

Allen would have to really take off the second half of the season, more throws, more points, hitting deep balls all the while beating better competition and not playing down to the level of lower competition. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

11-5 should definitely be enough to make the playoffs.  Even 10-6 this year should get it done.  The AFC is filled with crap teams...Chargers find new and interesting ways to lose each week just like they have for the past 3 years running now, Colts and Texans are slugging it out for the division and the other will likely be the wild card team, and there is really nobody else on the radar for the other wildcard spot than the Bills, who will likely be the 1st wildcard with the NFL's easiest schedule in their back pocket.

 

5 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I think the Browns will be competing with the lesser of Colts/Texans for that 6th seed. The Bills will be either #1 or #5, depending on how things go with the Patriots.

 

The two teams with a shot at the #1 seed appear to be the Patriots and Bills...

 

Kansas City is going to take more lumps with Mahomes out

Houston and Indianapolis will continue to grind in that division with the winner being 9-7 or 10-6

Baltimore will win the division but probably finish 10-6 or so

 

The #2 seed could really be 10-6 this year. It's crazy. The Bills could be 12-4 and be stuck with the 5 seed despite a better record than the 4, 3, and 2 seeds.

 

But here's the interesting thing... We are one New England injury away from being the favorite for the #1 seed, folks, and we have a fighting chance for it even without that. Beane needs to go all in to put the pieces in place to secure that #1 seed! It's ALL about New England. Jets beat them tonight and the race for #1 is officially ON...

 

 

Call me crazy, but I just plain think the Colts are better than the Bills.  I know if they win the division what's the point, but I am just bringing it up because I don't think it will be a slug fest between Houston and Indy...Indy is just going to outright win it, unless something happens.

 

As far as just team by team, Indy compared to the Bills, they are better coached and have a better QB.  Not saying our guys aren't good, but right now I think Indy is up there with Baltimore as competing for the second best team in the conference, with a wait and see as far as when Mahomes comes back for KC.  

 

We are the 5th seed right now, and honestly, I think that is fairly accurate with the way this team is situated in the Conference.

Edited by dollars 2 donuts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

538 also predicted Hillary would win in a landslide. 

 

She did get 3MM more votes.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

538 also predicted Hillary would win in a landslide. 

No, they didn't -- I'd let it go, but I'm sick of this particular lazy analysis. They gave her a 71% chance of winning, said that she would win by 2-3 pts nationwide (which she did), and Nate Silver wrote an essay the day before the election noting there was not enough good polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania to be confident in her winning. So, he was right twice, yet caught flak from both sides.  It's also simply a well-written and entertaining site that deserves better than this tired insult. 

 

Sorry if this is political, even if I tried to keep it non-partisan, but it does speak to the site's overall value.  

46 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I know where they currently stand. :P I'm saying I expect them to be competing with the Colts or Texans for #6 when all is said and done.

I'd hope not, because that would mean they likely went 4-6 or 5-5 against a very favorable schedule.

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

They were actually lower on her chances than basically anybody else. I think by election day they were giving her roughly a 67% chance of winning compared to most of the other projections being in the 80-90% range.

 

Like I said, I enjoy looking at them as just another data point. Just because something has a less than 50% chance of happening and then happens doesn't mean they were wrong. It just means the unlikelier outcome occurred.

Ah, I should have looked as OP apparently addressed this with almost exactly what I was thinking (and expressed much better than I did :) ).

Edited by thurst44
  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thanks! (+1) 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Doesn't matter. Check out their schedule. I am not saying they will suddenly work as a team and reach their potential, but if they do, they might be a serious threat if they beat us. Even if they lose to Pats now, they still might win out the rest and finish 11-5, or 10-6 with tiebreaker over us.

 

I don't think we need to care since I do believe we will end up 11-5 or better, but I wouldn't write them off yet.

 

The Browns are a joke!  Their crowning was WAY to early, nay it wasn't even deserved. 

  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???  ;);) 

 

 

Me, I had 10 in July :P

 

  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I dont think anyone truly believes the Bills are a super bowl quality team this year.

 

The defense is absolutely SB caliber, and for that reason they are a legitimate contender.  The offense has shown it is competent when they don't turn the ball over or commit needless penalties.  Once you get to the playoffs if you have a defense that will keep you "in it" you have a chance.

 

I've said all along that I believed this year's Bills would get into the playoffs and perhaps even win a game, but next season is where it really all comes together with some added piece(s) on offense.  That said, if the offense continues to progress and is playing well in December/January look out.

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

what was the projection in August?    

 

 

I had 11-5 +/- 1 game in early August  ... Who was the more consistent predictor???  ;);) 

 

I was right there with you and am still on track with predictions. 👍🏼

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

11-5 should definitely be enough to make the playoffs.  Even 10-6 this year should get it done.  The AFC is filled with crap teams...Chargers find new and interesting ways to lose each week just like they have for the past 3 years running now, Colts and Texans are slugging it out for the division and the other will likely be the wild card team, and there is really nobody else on the radar for the other wildcard spot than the Bills, who will likely be the 1st wildcard with the NFL's easiest schedule in their back pocket.


We would be Super Bowl contenders if we had an offense that could play 4 quarters....

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...