thenorthremembers Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 The problem with using statistics to analyze sports games is they tend to group games together, rather than looking at each game for what it is, a single data point in time that will never happen again. All of the variables for a football game are not accounted for because the rosters, the coaches, the weather, and the stadium are never exactly alike. Additionally, the point spread is a made up number calculated in some form, by a human. I love numbers, but I will freely say applying statistics to sports has more to do with bored people who like both statistics and sports wanting to mash them together. I am not saying numbers are useless in sports, by they need to be applied to the portions of the sport with less variables. Win/Loss predictions include way too many variables to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Looks right...with that formula Bills at 40% to win, puts them at +150 moneyline which is where they started. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Believer Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Ha... Wouldn’t bet my life on this... or any other system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 35 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? It's Virginia Swallows, nickname Spits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 100% of everyone I know who got heavy into betting all lost in the end. Myself included. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1.21 Gigawatts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What? I don't know... AAGHHHHH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I bought a book on 'Game Theory' and that looks like the chart where I said "I'm not going to finish reading this book" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I think you're overthinking this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Nonesense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 60 percent of the time it works every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 7 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Found this chart and article interesting. https://medium.com/the-intelligent-sports-wagerer/what-point-spreads-can-teach-you-about-implied-win-probabilities-a8bb3623d2c5 According to Oddshark, currently 64% of moneyline bets are on the Bills and against the Jets. So you have a correlation, over 32 teams x 16 games. I can see where it might be handy to a better in identifying possible "value" moneyline picks. But as a football fan, what one would really like to know is: does this have value as a predictive model for a specific team on a specific game? I'm gonna guess, "maybe not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: So you have a correlation, over 32 teams x 16 games. I can see where it might be handy to a better in identifying possible "value" moneyline picks. But as a football fan, what one would really like to know is: does this have value as a predictive model for a specific team on a specific game? I'm gonna guess, "maybe not" Your guess would be wrong. Unless this formula says 100 % win or 100% loss it cannot be wrong. Underdogs win regularly. This model accurately predicts how likely an underdog is to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CA OC Bills Fan Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 This is just common sense. I don't mean the exact formula is, but what the formula is basically saying is that there's an excellent correlation between who the favorite is and who wins the game and the higher the point spread, the more likely the team is to win. Of course there's exceptions such as Vikings - Bills 2018, but hence the 98% r squared vs. 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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