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Mango

QB Passer Rating Vs. Aggressiveness %

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5 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I've mentioned it before. 

 

It's funny, if I mention that a player's stat lines were overrated because of a few games people ridicule me talking about how I "remove games or circumstances" from his overall data.  But here people essentially cite a single game, whether wittingly or unwittingly, as all but the sole evidence for Allens' improvement amidst 11 games otherwise that suggest differently.  

 

If you think that's a wise analytical approach, hey, who am I to argue.  Not sure why you're having such a difficult personal time with it.  

 

As well, I pointed it out in context.  Gone completely over your head is any notion of what those same averages for him were prior to that game.  Here's a clue, through 15 weeks he was worse than Rosen.  

 

But hey, since he's going to play 16 games like he did vs. Miami in week 17, that's fantastic news.  I'll look forward to him posting Mahomes like numbers in our division this season.  That seems to be what I'm expected to believe.  

 

As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

 

That's fantastic.  I see it somewhat differently not surprisingly.  Those are pretty general assessments.  

 

I mean what does "improve his play recognition/anticipation" even mean?   It sounds like buried in there somewhere are questions as to his ability to conduct both pre and post-snap reads.  That's a pretty big impediment for someone that didn't even come close to mastering that in college, wouldn't you agree?  Or do you see it differently?  

 

Also, as I've oft mentioned and haven't heard you work into your counter arguments, at Wyoming Allen was a man amongst boys to an extent.  Do you think that distinction exists for him in the NFL?  Factor in his athleticism to the n-th degree if you want to.  

 

As to "being more willing to take what the defense gives him," given that that, again, wasn't something he excelled at at Wyoming, with the obvious results, do you think that it'll be A, easy to teach him that in the NFL for Dorsey and the coaches, and B, something that he'll all of a sudden after never having done that improve upon quickly?  ... a single season?  two seasons?  ... what?  

 

Put it all together and how would you go about coaching that in?  

 

I'll lay my take out yet again. 

 

I see the exact same things plaguing Allen that plagued him at Wyoming and were known negatives/weaknesses coming into the NFL.  I'll cut and paste from nfl.com if you don't mind, ... again.  

 

Weaknesses
  • Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter
  • Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet
  • May have too much hero in his blood
  • Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it
  • Takes too many chances with low percentage throws
  • Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball
  • Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short
  • Field-reading is spotty
  • Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop
  • Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing
  • Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally
  • Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused
  • Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers
  • Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket
  • Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

I removed one (1) relatively insignificant  point that I thought wasn't a factor.  Otherwise, I see all of those in Allen.  And again, I also see that several of those things are more difficult, yea, bordering on the impossible, to coach into a player unless that player does it on his own.  

 

From walterfootball, another good draft site has the following negatives: 

 

Weaknesses:

  • Has accuracy issues
  • Ball security  
  • Decision-making needs to improve
  • Throws too many interceptions
  • Needs to improve ability to throw finesse throws
  • Struggled against better teams
  • Concerns about production and ability to be a clutch performer

 

That "ball security" issue is among the keys.  Kizer was doomed by his INTs.  His INT% was 4.6.  Allen's was 3.8 and ranked 32nd last year out of 33.  Fitzpatrick was 33.  

 

All of those weaknesses still stand.  It's a lot to correct for any coach/player.  To think that he's going to overcome most of those when he never has, I'm not even sure what to say.  

 

So you can boil down his issues into three nice neat little bullet points, but they're a whole lot more pervasive and ubiquitous than that.  

 

Walterfootball's synopsis is excellent.  Here are excerpts from it, I've highlighted some of the more relevant ones.  

 

In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. 

Allen has amazing physical tools that is close to the prototype of how any evaluator would draw up their ideal quarterback. He has a powerful right arm that can get the ball to any spot on the field. His cannon is able to push the ball vertically and stretch defenses downfield. In tight windows, Allen can fire a fastball that explodes out of his hand and cuts through a defense. He has a quick release and throws a tight spiral. His arm talent is legit. 


Aside from the powerful arm, Allen is a big body with excellent strength to shed tackles. Routinely, you would see plays of Allen using his stature and power to shove off defensive linemen and then using his feet to escape trouble. From there, he can throw well on the run, yet is also dangerous to run through the defense. On those plays, Allen looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger. Allen is a good athlete with running ability to get downfield. He will be a good running threat in the NFL to pick up some yardage with his feet. While scrambling, Allen has done a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield to find receivers who get open.  (unfortunately he overemphasizes that, costing him in his overall and required game)  Allen is hard to sack and shows real toughness in the pocket. 

There are a lot of points of development that Allen needs for the NFL. He has accuracy issues and can miss on throws that should be easy completions. His ball security and decision-making need a lot of work as well. He threw too many interceptions over the past few seasons. Improving his accuracy and decision-making are the critical points of emphasis. Allen could be better off working on those in practice with a redshirt year at the pro level. Being forced to play right away could be too big of a jump for him as he is coming from a non-Power 5 level of competition. Allen did not have a good supporting cast at Wyoming, so he may have to change his thinking for the NFL and not put everything on his on shoulders. 

Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. (There are a number of QBs that never lived up that fit this description, I've pointed them out in the past)  They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, (I don't)  and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. Allen helped alleviate some concerns with an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. He improved each day and showed an ability to throw well-placed touch passes. 

Allen is probably going to be a top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Where Allen goes in the NFL will have a big impact on if he pans out. He needs good coaching to develop his game and improve on his fundamentals. Whichever team views him as a future franchise quarterback and takes him in the first round will have to have good quarterback teachers in house to work with Allen.  (is Dorsey that teacher?  What is his resume as such?  He was a great player in college, a bad player in the NFL, and from what I can tell is a blank slate in this role.)  

 

Anyway, the point is, that the known issues as a draftee were still present last season.  Very few, if any, disappeared.  It's a lot for any QB to correct, how much more so a QB that is trying to do it for the first time in the NFL.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's rare to see someone devote so much space, time, and effort into straw-man arguments.

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3 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I've mentioned it before. 

 

It's funny, if I mention that a player's stat lines were overrated because of a few games people ridicule me talking about how I "remove games or circumstances" from his overall data.  But here people essentially cite a single game, whether wittingly or unwittingly, as all but the sole evidence for Allens' improvement amidst 11 games otherwise that suggest differently.  

 

If you think that's a wise analytical approach, hey, who am I to argue.  Not sure why you're having such a difficult personal time with it.  

 

As well, I pointed it out in context.  Gone completely over your head is any notion of what those same averages for him were prior to that game.  Here's a clue, through 15 weeks he was worse than Rosen.  

 

But hey, since he's going to play 16 games like he did vs. Miami in week 17, that's fantastic news.  I'll look forward to him posting Mahomes like numbers in our division this season.  That seems to be what I'm expected to believe.  

 

As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

 

That's fantastic.  I see it somewhat differently not surprisingly.  Those are pretty general assessments.  

 

I mean what does "improve his play recognition/anticipation" even mean?   It sounds like buried in there somewhere are questions as to his ability to conduct both pre and post-snap reads.  That's a pretty big impediment for someone that didn't even come close to mastering that in college, wouldn't you agree?  Or do you see it differently?  

 

Also, as I've oft mentioned and haven't heard you work into your counter arguments, at Wyoming Allen was a man amongst boys to an extent.  Do you think that distinction exists for him in the NFL?  Factor in his athleticism to the n-th degree if you want to.  

 

As to "being more willing to take what the defense gives him," given that that, again, wasn't something he excelled at at Wyoming, with the obvious results, do you think that it'll be A, easy to teach him that in the NFL for Dorsey and the coaches, and B, something that he'll all of a sudden after never having done that improve upon quickly?  ... a single season?  two seasons?  ... what?  

 

Put it all together and how would you go about coaching that in?  

 

I'll lay my take out yet again. 

 

I see the exact same things plaguing Allen that plagued him at Wyoming and were known negatives/weaknesses coming into the NFL.  I'll cut and paste from nfl.com if you don't mind, ... again.  

 

Weaknesses
  • Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter
  • Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet
  • May have too much hero in his blood
  • Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it
  • Takes too many chances with low percentage throws
  • Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball
  • Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short
  • Field-reading is spotty
  • Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop
  • Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing
  • Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally
  • Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused
  • Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers
  • Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket
  • Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

I removed one (1) relatively insignificant  point that I thought wasn't a factor.  Otherwise, I see all of those in Allen.  And again, I also see that several of those things are more difficult, yea, bordering on the impossible, to coach into a player unless that player does it on his own.  

 

From walterfootball, another good draft site has the following negatives: 

 

Weaknesses:

  • Has accuracy issues
  • Ball security  
  • Decision-making needs to improve
  • Throws too many interceptions
  • Needs to improve ability to throw finesse throws
  • Struggled against better teams
  • Concerns about production and ability to be a clutch performer

 

That "ball security" issue is among the keys.  Kizer was doomed by his INTs.  His INT% was 4.6.  Allen's was 3.8 and ranked 32nd last year out of 33.  Fitzpatrick was 33.  

 

All of those weaknesses still stand.  It's a lot to correct for any coach/player.  To think that he's going to overcome most of those when he never has, I'm not even sure what to say.  

 

So you can boil down his issues into three nice neat little bullet points, but they're a whole lot more pervasive and ubiquitous than that.  

 

Walterfootball's synopsis is excellent.  Here are excerpts from it, I've highlighted some of the more relevant ones.  

 

In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. 

Allen has amazing physical tools that is close to the prototype of how any evaluator would draw up their ideal quarterback. He has a powerful right arm that can get the ball to any spot on the field. His cannon is able to push the ball vertically and stretch defenses downfield. In tight windows, Allen can fire a fastball that explodes out of his hand and cuts through a defense. He has a quick release and throws a tight spiral. His arm talent is legit. 


Aside from the powerful arm, Allen is a big body with excellent strength to shed tackles. Routinely, you would see plays of Allen using his stature and power to shove off defensive linemen and then using his feet to escape trouble. From there, he can throw well on the run, yet is also dangerous to run through the defense. On those plays, Allen looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger. Allen is a good athlete with running ability to get downfield. He will be a good running threat in the NFL to pick up some yardage with his feet. While scrambling, Allen has done a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield to find receivers who get open.  (unfortunately he overemphasizes that, costing him in his overall and required game)  Allen is hard to sack and shows real toughness in the pocket. 

There are a lot of points of development that Allen needs for the NFL. He has accuracy issues and can miss on throws that should be easy completions. His ball security and decision-making need a lot of work as well. He threw too many interceptions over the past few seasons. Improving his accuracy and decision-making are the critical points of emphasis. Allen could be better off working on those in practice with a redshirt year at the pro level. Being forced to play right away could be too big of a jump for him as he is coming from a non-Power 5 level of competition. Allen did not have a good supporting cast at Wyoming, so he may have to change his thinking for the NFL and not put everything on his on shoulders. 

Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. (There are a number of QBs that never lived up that fit this description, I've pointed them out in the past)  They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, (I don't)  and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. Allen helped alleviate some concerns with an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. He improved each day and showed an ability to throw well-placed touch passes. 

Allen is probably going to be a top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Where Allen goes in the NFL will have a big impact on if he pans out. He needs good coaching to develop his game and improve on his fundamentals. Whichever team views him as a future franchise quarterback and takes him in the first round will have to have good quarterback teachers in house to work with Allen.  (is Dorsey that teacher?  What is his resume as such?  He was a great player in college, a bad player in the NFL, and from what I can tell is a blank slate in this role.)  

 

Anyway, the point is, that the known issues as a draftee were still present last season.  Very few, if any, disappeared.  It's a lot for any QB to correct, how much more so a QB that is trying to do it for the first time in the NFL.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dorsey was QB coach for the Panthers for several years and helped Newton's development.   Many times great coaches are not the greatest players; they have to really spend time understanding the nuances of their craft to make up for lack of elite ability.  

 

I agree that Allen needs to work most on reads.  That is the case with every young QB I have ever seen.  That's because college is considerably different and it's comparing apples and oranges.

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4 hours ago, Mango said:

Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

Ok so we got the wrong Josh?

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9 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Ok so we got the wrong Josh?

 

Hahaha. 

 

I totally wasn't meaning to go there. If anything we got about the same Josh based on this stat line. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Mango said:

Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

 

Lol Fitz is a maniac!!! 

 

 

Also assuming having a wr like Tyreek skew things a bit since he’s usually got like 8 yards of separation 

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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Lots to improve upon for sure.  He was still .500 in games he started and finished.  How did he manage that?  It looks to me like he can help his team win while he is still developing his overall game and, in some cases, still be the best player on the field.  Their definition of aggressive is weak, imo.  It may only be a function of no other choice,  an attempt to make plays from a nonexistent pocket to well covered targets.  Theirs is a definition that could easily be an artifact of having poor circumstances, limited options and lesser tools to use.  That's how George Plimpton would play QB and it's not a choice.

 

Throwing past the sticks on 3rd down is more of a choice than this particular definition.  Avoiding the pressure, breaking the pocket and averaging 10+ ypc on scramble runs or creating extra time and space looking to make a play or just avoid a sack and throw it away is another definition of aggressive.  Those are aggressive choices.

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2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Lots to improve upon for sure.  He was still .500 in games he started and finished.  How did he manage that?  It looks to me like he can help his team win while he is still developing his overall game and, in some cases, still be the best player on the field.  Their definition of aggressive is weak, imo.  It may only be a function of no other choice,  an attempt to make plays from a nonexistent pocket to well covered targets.  Theirs is a definition that could easily be an artifact of having poor circumstances, limited options and lesser tools to use.  That's how George Plimpton would play QB and it's not a choice.

 

Throwing past the sticks on 3rd down is more of a choice than this particular definition.  Avoiding the pressure, breaking the pocket and averaging 10+ ypc on scramble runs or creating extra time and space looking to make a play or just avoid a sack and throw it away is another definition of aggressive.  Those are aggressive choices.

 

I think the takeaway is a little different. He’s only throwing the ball to receivers with less than a yard of separation about 13% of the time. He’s not throwing into tight windows. 

 

The context comes in when talking about why his passer rating is so low. 

 

Your issue with aggressive is pedantic. You’re missing the point. Albeit, “aggressive coverage” might be a better term. 

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17 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

No TT????

Must be because he’s listed on the negative side of the aggressiveness graph😂😂😂

 

Hard to judge the aggressiveness of his throws because he never ******* throws it!!

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Is it me or is EVERYONE going overboard on the stats thing?  How many different ways can you slice a loaf of bread? 

 

In all these cases we're trying to use convoluted statistics to evaluate a ROOKIE QB, who was considered a project by every expert and who only played in the equivalent of 11 games.  And he played on a team with a weak O-line, no running game and a piss poor receiving group.  Frankly this is insane.  To me it looks like we're trying to analyze his performance & future prospects as if we were analyzing a million subject, 5 year nutrition study.  We just don't have enough data to usefully apply the stats that were trying to use on Allen.  Or Rosen. Or Jackson. Or Mayfield. Or Darnold.

 

At this point it's all about the eye candy.  Which means the best we can do is GUESS at what the future holds for these rookie QB's. The most sensitive we can be is to look at Allen's limited body of work and decide whether to be OPTIMISTIC or PESSIMISTIC.  It doesn't get more specific then that at this point. 

 

And before someone throws out Allen's HIGH SCHOOL (HS?  are you freaking kidding me) & COLLEGE stats as if they mean anything remember that you could fill Rich Stadium with QB's boasting great college stats who failed in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it me or is EVERYONE going overboard on the stats thing?  How many different ways can you slice a loaf of bread? 

 

In all these cases we're trying to use convoluted statistics to evaluate a ROOKIE QB, who was considered a project by every expert and who only played in the equivalent of 11 games.  And he played on a team with a weak O-line, no running game and a piss poor receiving group.  Frankly this is insane.  To me it looks like we're trying to analyze his performance & future prospects as if we were analyzing a million subject, 5 year nutrition study.  We just don't have enough data to usefully apply the stats that were trying to use on Allen.  Or Rosen. Or Jackson. Or Mayfield. Or Darnold.

 

At this point it's all about the eye candy.  Which means the best we can do is GUESS at what the future holds for these rookie QB's. The most sensitive we can be is to look at Allen's limited body of work and decide whether to be OPTIMISTIC or PESSIMISTIC.  It doesn't get more specific then that at this point. 

 

And before someone throws out Allen's HIGH SCHOOL (HS?  are you freaking kidding me) & COLLEGE stats as if they mean anything remember that you could fill Rich Stadium with QB's boasting great college stats who failed in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

YOu understand the use and misuse of statistics because you have a background in the field.  As do I.  Many don't.

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1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is it me or is EVERYONE going overboard on the stats thing?  How many different ways can you slice a loaf of bread? 

 

In all these cases we're trying to use convoluted statistics to evaluate a ROOKIE QB, who was considered a project by every expert and who only played in the equivalent of 11 games.  And he played on a team with a weak O-line, no running game and a piss poor receiving group.  Frankly this is insane.  To me it looks like we're trying to analyze his performance & future prospects as if we were analyzing a million subject, 5 year nutrition study.  We just don't have enough data to usefully apply the stats that were trying to use on Allen.  Or Rosen. Or Jackson. Or Mayfield. Or Darnold.

 

At this point it's all about the eye candy.  Which means the best we can do is GUESS at what the future holds for these rookie QB's. The most sensitive we can be is to look at Allen's limited body of work and decide whether to be OPTIMISTIC or PESSIMISTIC.  It doesn't get more specific then that at this point. 

 

And before someone throws out Allen's HIGH SCHOOL (HS?  are you freaking kidding me) & COLLEGE stats as if they mean anything remember that you could fill Rich Stadium with QB's boasting great college stats who failed in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

 

As the OP, I just thought it was an interesting single piece of data, worthy of an offseason talking point. I don't think it paints an entire picture, it is one small part of a much larger puzzle worth discussing. 

 

Also didn't mean to make this Allen specific. 

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6 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

As the OP, I just thought it was an interesting single piece of data, worthy of an offseason talking point. I don't think it paints an entire picture, it is one small part of a much larger puzzle worth discussing. 

 

Also didn't mean to make this Allen specific. 

It's interesting, and thanks for posting it.  CincyBillsFan and I both have research backgrounds and tend to be much more critical of the kinds of analyses expressed in the graph you posted.   So given the x axis is QB ratings, which depends a lot on completion rate and number of touchdowns, the most relevant variable to me that does not show up in the graph is the quality of your WR corps.  Given that aggression is defined as throwing a pass with a defender within a yard of the receiver, to me the graph really might talk more about how good your WR corps is in competing for throws with a DB. 

 

Cinci has said this before and he's absolutely right:  football has an big number of variables.  To really get down into the weeds on anything, the type of stats one would have to use to show an effect is quite complex: I would defer to a true stats expert to handle the kind of deep dive needed.  It involves something called multivariate analysis, and while I use stats a lot every day that level is beyond my understanding.

 

 

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Why are Josh Allen's college stats and nfl.com/walterfootball pre-draft write-ups in this thread?

 

What does any of that have to do with his performance in the NFL?

 

Spoiler alert .... (the answer is "nothing").

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14 hours ago, Mango said:

 

I think the takeaway is a little different. He’s only throwing the ball to receivers with less than a yard of separation about 13% of the time. He’s not throwing into tight windows. 

 

The context comes in when talking about why his passer rating is so low. 

 

Your issue with aggressive is pedantic. You’re missing the point. Albeit, “aggressive coverage” might be a better term. 

 

Call it "tight window throws," then I'm good with it.  To me, aggressive is a choice or maybe a preferred style of play.  As such, I think Allen plays with way more aggression than Rosen, for instance.  By their definition, a throw made with crappy protection to a tightly covered receiver is aggression.  The only choices may be that or a sack.  Allen can create other options so he is less aggressive?  Not by my thinking.

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On 6/20/2019 at 5:28 AM, Mango said:

Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

According to NFL Next-gen stats, Allen has almost exactly the same aggressiveness % (13.8) as Brady does (13.9).

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9 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

With significantly less production

Well duh, is there anyone on this board that thinks Allen is better than Brady?

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However the rate, calculate "aggressiveness" is totally worthless if they rank Allen in the bottom third.  He is one of the most aggressive QBs i have every seen.  How often does he do the dinking and dunking of Tom Brady, next to never.

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1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

 

With significantly less production

 

The point is more that while that chart looks interesting, aggressiveness is relatively unrelated to passer rating.

 

It was just a weird pairing.

 

If anything, it proves that Allen has the right amount of aggressiveness for an NFL QB.

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1 hour ago, Tenhigh said:

Well duh, is there anyone on this board that thinks Allen is better than Brady?

 

Ok. Well he made less "aggressive" throws with less production than Driskel, Winston, Eli, Darnold, Trubisy, Dak, Flacco, Lamar Jackson, Keenum, Beathard, Foles, Watson, Fitz, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield. Deshaun Watson. 

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4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Ok. Well he made less "aggressive" throws with less production than Driskel, Winston, Eli, Darnold, Trubisy, Dak, Flacco, Lamar Jackson, Keenum, Beathard, Foles, Watson, Fitz, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield. Deshaun Watson. 

Yes, I saw the chart, same as you.  Everyone knows that the kid has some work to do.  He needs to do a better job of taking what the defense gives him.  He needs more touch on his short throws.  I don't know any single poster who thinks he's the best QB in the NFL. 

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Wow! Allen is in the bottom half for aggressiveness and he's STILL so far below the pack for pass efficiency. Someone remind me what he's good at again besides running.

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6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

According to NFL Next-gen stats, Allen has almost exactly the same aggressiveness % (13.8) as Brady does (13.9).

Setting aside the fact that our receivers were not good, this is more an indication of Brady knowing exactly where to go with the football. This doesn't indicate Allen can't improve. It is an indication, at least to me, that he's got to get better at finding the correct target. I don't think that's some earth shattering critique.

 

Someone mentioned this regarding Rodgers and Brady early in the thread, and it was spot on analysis. The greats only throw into tight windows when absolutely necessary because they're looking for the perfect option; a guy who's gotten lost in coverage with an opportunity to continue to run after the catch.

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16 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Setting aside the fact that our receivers were not good, this is more an indication of Brady knowing exactly where to go with the football. This doesn't indicate Allen can't improve. It is an indication, at least to me, that he's got to get better at finding the correct target. I don't think that's some earth shattering critique.

 

Someone mentioned this regarding Rodgers and Brady early in the thread, and it was spot on analysis. The greats only throw into tight windows when absolutely necessary because they're looking for the perfect option; a guy who's gotten lost in coverage with an opportunity to continue to run after the catch.

Good points.  Also it can mean better WRs can make catches even with tight coverage.

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10 hours ago, Mango said:

 

As the OP, I just thought it was an interesting single piece of data, worthy of an offseason talking point. I don't think it paints an entire picture, it is one small part of a much larger puzzle worth discussing. 

 

Also didn't mean to make this Allen specific. 

 

Sorry for the misunderstanding Mango.  I wasn't trying to be critical of the post as it was an interesting graph.  My remarks were aimed more at the people who are trying to use the data as another way to bash Allen.  I was also pointing out that over the last few months there have been all sorts of analytics thrown around involving QB play.  I just thought this one was especially subjective and open to interpretation and when added to all the others it seems like the "experts" are way over analyzing the rookie QB's.  

 

As Oldmanfan has pointed out the use of these statistical techniques is probably inappropriate given the variability for each NFL pass play and the small sample size for the young QB's.  And I'm not talking just about the "aggressiveness" chart but pretty much all of the analytics work that has been presented in a slew of posts over the last couple of months.

 

One way to look at it is say I was running a 6 month clinical trial to look at the effect of a test drug.  I'm going to measure clinical outcomes as well as track the drug, it's metabolites and impact on say blood chemistry in the subjects.  Now let's say that after only ONE DAY of treatment I made a bunch of measurements and ran the data through the most sophisticated analytics available and didn't see an effect.  And then I took this data and went around telling everyone that the Drug doesn't work.  I would be guilty of gross abuse of statistical analysis and my conclusion would not be justified.  The Drug might work or it might not.  And this is exactly what these analytics people are doing using various statistical techniques to asses these young QB's. 

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