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Mango

QB Passer Rating Vs. Aggressiveness %

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Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

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Do we trust a topic regarding ‘aggressiveness’ when started by an OJ avatar?  😳

😁

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What is the definition of "Aggresive"  Feels weird to think Eli Manning is more aggressive than Mahomes and Watson.

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3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

What is the definition of "Aggresive"  Feels weird to think Eli Manning is more aggressive than Mahomes and Watson.

 

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

 

It is literally in the first line...In a thread with like 2 replies, that answer would have taken about 5 seconds. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

What is the definition of "Aggresive"  Feels weird to think Eli Manning is more aggressive than Mahomes and Watson.

 

According to NFL.com's NextGenStats:

 

"Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts."

Just now, Mango said:

 

 

It is literally in the first line...In a thread with like 2 replies, that answer would have taken about 5 seconds. 

 

 

 

Relax...it's not difficult to provide the whole definition.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

It is literally in the first line...In a thread with like 2 replies, that answer would have taken about 5 seconds. 

 

 

Instead of my usual ‘class clown’ persona, I’ll ask how actively is the defensive team player  harassing the QB?  In some cases the OL or RB may be engaging the defender, in some cases the QB may be running for his life.

 

EDIT:  Noting now this seems to indicate coverage of the intended receiver, not my initial perception of how much pressure the QB was under.

Edited by Ridgewaycynic2013

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Brady and Rodger are likely low bc they know how to read a defense and know where the open guy will be.

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35 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

What is the definition of "Aggresive"  Feels weird to think Eli Manning is more aggressive than Mahomes and Watson.

 

every delving into history and science is biased toward the outcome the investigator wants to find, they set the parameters and they pick the stats and they fix the outcome

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Mango said:

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

 

Because Rosen was also running for his life every play.

Maybe didn't want to make the "aggressive" throw, but the alternative was to get mangled by the defense (again) if he didn't get rid of it.

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Allen is closest to Brady, Wilson & Rodgers.  All 3 Super Bowl Champions.  Around 13% looks like the sweet spot & Josh is already there.  Advanced well beyond his years. 

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No TT????

Must be because he’s listed on the negative side of the aggressiveness graph😂😂😂

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How much was Allen's limited "aggressiveness" dictated by throwing to Kelvin Benjamin, who refused to fight for the ball and would make a better NBA backboard than an NFL WR, for 7 of his 11 starts.

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Anybody introduces the ‘Orton Slide’ into the discussion, and the entire science collapses upon itself like a stellar black hole.

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14 minutes ago, transient said:

How much was Allen's limited "aggressiveness" dictated by throwing to Kelvin Benjamin, who refused to fight for the ball and would make a better NBA backboard than an NFL WR, for 7 of his 11 starts.

The graph is a classic example of the risks of misusing stats.  There are a whole host of variables that can affect this graph that are not detailed.

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Interesting topic. Brady, Rogers and the elite QBs have decent to great arms but the key to success is to find the open receiver.  I'm always amazed how many Brady throws are to wide open receiver. Stunning, actually. Even on critical plays and 3rd downs, it's pretty rare to see Brady, Brees, etc force a throw into tight coverage.  

 

However, I'm not sure if this chart really explains too much for one season or less.  Allen's problems have been document but perhaps the chart indicates that Allen held off more unwise passes than we think.  Moreover, the chart may also indicate that Allen's receivers could not get separation at all, there was rarely no one open or more ominously, he could not locate the open receiver.  

 

For all of Mahomes' gunslinger reputation, the chart indicates he's much more judicious with the ball, has more "open" receivers or simply knows how to find one.  

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

According to NFL.com's NextGenStats:

 

"Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts."

 

Relax...it's not difficult to provide the whole definition.

 

That's one of Allen's major issues, he's always looking for a big-play so instead of taking what the D gives him by checking down and finding the open guys, he already seems to have laid out in his mind what he wants to, i.e. where he wants to go which results in risky plays, where he's among the worst in the NFL.  

 

If you haven't downloaded Allen's PFF 2018 review you should.  

 

In short however, here are a few key metrics worthy of note according to that analysis and review:  

 

Passer Rating:  When Clean:  79.8.  NFL avg. 103.1 

 

Passer Rating:  No Blitz:  70.1.   NFL avg. 92.9  

 

Passer Rating:  Under Pressure -  47.4.  NFL avg. 67.1

 

Passer Rating:  Blitz -  62.9.  NFL avg.  93.1

 

For comps, among the rookies, only Rosen was worse in every category.  Darnold was worse only "under pressure."  Most of their ratings were well above Allen's.  Rosen's were 80.9, 68.6, 38.1, 60.7. 

 

Rosen was higher "when clean."  He was only a couple points worse on "no blitz" and "blitz."  

 

It would be remiss not to realize that Allen's last game vs. Miami boosted his season stats in terms of averages in a major way.  That one game "lifted" him to where he finished.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

 

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So Allen is as aggressive as Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers.

 

SWEET.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

That's one of Allen's major issues, he's always looking for a big-play so instead of taking what the D gives him by checking down and finding the open guys, he already seems to have laid out in his mind what he wants to, i.e. where he wants to go which results in risky plays, where he's among the worst in the NFL.  

 

If you haven't downloaded Allen's PFF 2018 review you should.  

 

In short however, here are a few key metrics worthy of note according to that analysis and review:  

 

Passer Rating:  When Clean:  79.8.  NFL avg. 103.1 

 

Passer Rating:  No Blitz:  70.1.   NFL avg. 92.9  

 

Passer Rating:  Under Pressure -  47.4.  NFL avg. 67.1

 

Passer Rating:  Blitz -  62.9.  NFL avg.  93.1

 

For comps, among the rookies, only Rosen was worse in every category.  Darnold was worse only "under pressure."  Most of their ratings were well above Allen's.  Rosen's were 80.9, 68.6, 38.1, 60.7. 

 

Rosen was higher "when clean."  He was only a couple points worse on "no blitz" and "blitz."  

 

It would be remiss not to realize that Allen's last game vs. Miami boosted his season stats in terms of averages in a major way.  That one game "lifted" him to where he finished.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

 

 

Yes, you mention this in at least 100% of the Josh Allen discussions that you participate, and in about 50% of them, I point out that it's silly to disregard his week 17 game.  They all count.

 

As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

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2 hours ago, Mango said:

Thought this was a cool bit of info. Aggressiveness is measured as a throw with a defender <1 yard away. 

 

Interesting Rosen is the highest for "aggressive" throws. Brady and Rogers are pretty low. 

 

JA is slightly below average for "aggressive" throws with the worst passer rating. 

 

QukE78G.jpg

 

Two interesting points: for all the flak that JA gets about being a Brett Favre clone, gun slinging wild west QB, his aggressiveness is right up there with... oh... Tom "Captain Conservative" Brady.

 

Secondly, WOW, Brock O, with the 2019 Timidity Award 👏👏👏

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This seems like a metric of how good / bad your oline is and how quick you release the football.

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Posted (edited)

To some degree, in the context of the 2018 Bills, "aggressiveness" could also translate to "trust." It will be interesting to see how Allen's "aggressiveness" increases with John Brown, and Cole Beasley on the field.

 

I would also be interested to know how that stat changed during last season with the addition of McKenzie, and the other changes to our receiving corp.

 

31 minutes ago, MJS said:

This seems like a metric of how good / bad your oline is and how quick you release the football.

That's a fair point. IMO, these sorts of metrics should be used more to provide context, and less to draw conclusions. At the very least, a stat like this needs to be looked at in context.

Edited by Rocky Landing

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We just got rid of our aggressive Qb. He threw into tight coverage consistently.

 

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3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

It is literally in the first line...In a thread with like 2 replies, that answer would have taken about 5 seconds. 

 

 

Yup sorry about that.   Got distracted by the chart which had some really funky things going on.  I'm sorta trying to ask how much this actually points to real "aggressiveness."  Feels like there are a lot other variables involved like system (how often are you asked to throw anticipation throws) and receivers ability to get separation.  Sorry I missed that definition. 

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27 minutes ago, Billsfanatixs said:

We just got rid of our aggressive Qb. He threw into tight coverage consistently.

 

(Assuming you're talking about Peterman) I feel like I watched defending CBs giving our WRs an extra step, or two of separation, literally baiting him to throw long.

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51 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, you mention this in at least 100% of the Josh Allen discussions that you participate, and in about 50% of them, I point out that it's silly to disregard his week 17 game.  They all count.

 

As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

 

I've mentioned it before. 

 

It's funny, if I mention that a player's stat lines were overrated because of a few games people ridicule me talking about how I "remove games or circumstances" from his overall data.  But here people essentially cite a single game, whether wittingly or unwittingly, as all but the sole evidence for Allens' improvement amidst 11 games otherwise that suggest differently.  

 

If you think that's a wise analytical approach, hey, who am I to argue.  Not sure why you're having such a difficult personal time with it.  

 

As well, I pointed it out in context.  Gone completely over your head is any notion of what those same averages for him were prior to that game.  Here's a clue, through 15 weeks he was worse than Rosen.  

 

But hey, since he's going to play 16 games like he did vs. Miami in week 17, that's fantastic news.  I'll look forward to him posting Mahomes like numbers in our division this season.  That seems to be what I'm expected to believe.  

 

As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery.

 

That's fantastic.  I see it somewhat differently not surprisingly.  Those are pretty general assessments.  

 

I mean what does "improve his play recognition/anticipation" even mean?   It sounds like buried in there somewhere are questions as to his ability to conduct both pre and post-snap reads.  That's a pretty big impediment for someone that didn't even come close to mastering that in college, wouldn't you agree?  Or do you see it differently?  

 

Also, as I've oft mentioned and haven't heard you work into your counter arguments, at Wyoming Allen was a man amongst boys to an extent.  Do you think that distinction exists for him in the NFL?  Factor in his athleticism to the n-th degree if you want to.  

 

As to "being more willing to take what the defense gives him," given that that, again, wasn't something he excelled at at Wyoming, with the obvious results, do you think that it'll be A, easy to teach him that in the NFL for Dorsey and the coaches, and B, something that he'll all of a sudden after never having done that improve upon quickly?  ... a single season?  two seasons?  ... what?  

 

Put it all together and how would you go about coaching that in?  

 

I'll lay my take out yet again. 

 

I see the exact same things plaguing Allen that plagued him at Wyoming and were known negatives/weaknesses coming into the NFL.  I'll cut and paste from nfl.com if you don't mind, ... again.  

 

Weaknesses
  • Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter
  • Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet
  • May have too much hero in his blood
  • Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it
  • Takes too many chances with low percentage throws
  • Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball
  • Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short
  • Field-reading is spotty
  • Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop
  • Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing
  • Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally
  • Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused
  • Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers
  • Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket
  • Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

I removed one (1) relatively insignificant  point that I thought wasn't a factor.  Otherwise, I see all of those in Allen.  And again, I also see that several of those things are more difficult, yea, bordering on the impossible, to coach into a player unless that player does it on his own.  

 

From walterfootball, another good draft site has the following negatives: 

 

Weaknesses:

  • Has accuracy issues
  • Ball security  
  • Decision-making needs to improve
  • Throws too many interceptions
  • Needs to improve ability to throw finesse throws
  • Struggled against better teams
  • Concerns about production and ability to be a clutch performer

 

That "ball security" issue is among the keys.  Kizer was doomed by his INTs.  His INT% was 4.6.  Allen's was 3.8 and ranked 32nd last year out of 33.  Fitzpatrick was 33.  

 

All of those weaknesses still stand.  It's a lot to correct for any coach/player.  To think that he's going to overcome most of those when he never has, I'm not even sure what to say.  

 

So you can boil down his issues into three nice neat little bullet points, but they're a whole lot more pervasive and ubiquitous than that.  

 

Walterfootball's synopsis is excellent.  Here are excerpts from it, I've highlighted some of the more relevant ones.  

 

In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. 

Allen has amazing physical tools that is close to the prototype of how any evaluator would draw up their ideal quarterback. He has a powerful right arm that can get the ball to any spot on the field. His cannon is able to push the ball vertically and stretch defenses downfield. In tight windows, Allen can fire a fastball that explodes out of his hand and cuts through a defense. He has a quick release and throws a tight spiral. His arm talent is legit. 


Aside from the powerful arm, Allen is a big body with excellent strength to shed tackles. Routinely, you would see plays of Allen using his stature and power to shove off defensive linemen and then using his feet to escape trouble. From there, he can throw well on the run, yet is also dangerous to run through the defense. On those plays, Allen looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger. Allen is a good athlete with running ability to get downfield. He will be a good running threat in the NFL to pick up some yardage with his feet. While scrambling, Allen has done a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield to find receivers who get open.  (unfortunately he overemphasizes that, costing him in his overall and required game)  Allen is hard to sack and shows real toughness in the pocket. 

There are a lot of points of development that Allen needs for the NFL. He has accuracy issues and can miss on throws that should be easy completions. His ball security and decision-making need a lot of work as well. He threw too many interceptions over the past few seasons. Improving his accuracy and decision-making are the critical points of emphasis. Allen could be better off working on those in practice with a redshirt year at the pro level. Being forced to play right away could be too big of a jump for him as he is coming from a non-Power 5 level of competition. Allen did not have a good supporting cast at Wyoming, so he may have to change his thinking for the NFL and not put everything on his on shoulders. 

Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. (There are a number of QBs that never lived up that fit this description, I've pointed them out in the past)  They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, (I don't)  and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. Allen helped alleviate some concerns with an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. He improved each day and showed an ability to throw well-placed touch passes. 

Allen is probably going to be a top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Where Allen goes in the NFL will have a big impact on if he pans out. He needs good coaching to develop his game and improve on his fundamentals. Whichever team views him as a future franchise quarterback and takes him in the first round will have to have good quarterback teachers in house to work with Allen.  (is Dorsey that teacher?  What is his resume as such?  He was a great player in college, a bad player in the NFL, and from what I can tell is a blank slate in this role.)  

 

Anyway, the point is, that the known issues as a draftee were still present last season.  Very few, if any, disappeared.  It's a lot for any QB to correct, how much more so a QB that is trying to do it for the first time in the NFL.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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