2019 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Day 2 is in the books and the Bills picked three times so let's get to it....

 

The Bills Picks...

I had a 1st / 2nd round borderline grade on Cody Ford (he was my 21st overall player) and I think he represented good value at #38. I had graded him as my top interior offensive lineman but I think he can play right tackle as well and, critically, even left tackle in a pinch. I don't think he is ever going to be a top flight NFL left tackle, he is a bit too foot slow, but throughout last season my worry was who the hell played left tackle if, at any point, Dawkins went down? I know they brought Nsekhe in as well as a FA but he is 33. Dawkins and Ford could, potentially, be the Bills tackle combo for a few years to come and it is good to have a right tackle who would at a pinch flip to the left side if your starter goes out for the year. I know there have been concerns about his height and his weight but I'm relaxed on both. An NFL conditioning programme will sort one and he still plays with good leverage for a 6'3 guy.

 

I'll come back to Singletary and flip to Dawson Knox. I said that I thought this was the best Tight End class for many a year and I had 7 guys in my top 100 all of whom I thought could contribute as rookies. Knox was the 85th ranked player on my board and the Bills got him at #96 so it represented value for me. I know people worry about his college production but he hasn't been a tight end long, he is a supreme athlete and his tape flashes some incredible athletic ability. I think the surface of his potential has barely even been scratched. He will start the season as a backup to Tyler Kroft (who is a better player than many think) but I think by this time next year Knox will be knocking on the door of the starting job.

 

Which brings me to Singletary. Meh. I don't hate the pick. The Bills did need to get younger at running back and I was keen that they had a guy in the building who could be primed to take over the starter role in 2020 if, as expected, this is Shady's last year as a Bill. That said I just don't feel that way about Singletary. The good? He has good vision, a very good change of direction and his initial burst is better than a 40 speed would indicate. The bad? I think he lacks long speed for the NFL level - I don't think he is a guy who will run away from a secondary, he dances behind the line..... a LOT and talent wise he is no Shady McCoy and I don't know how effective he will be as an early down runner in the NFL. Running out of a lot of spread against vanilla college defenses is one thing... but go stick on the tape of him against legit competition in Oklahoma this last season and Wisconsin the year before. Those defenses were ready for him and they bottled him up. My projection for him at the NFL level is a third down / change of pace back. I think he is a better pass protector than he will get credit for an a better receiver than he had the opportunity to display at FAU. I can see him converting some third downs for us but I do not see an every down starting running back there. Which to me would suggest a 3rd is too rich for my tastes. Picked a round too early by my board and there were other backs - the Texas A&M kid in particular - that I'd have preferred. Don't hate it.... but don't love it either. 

 

What about the other 31....

Let's start with the Baltimore Ravens who I thought got the steal of the night when Jaylon Ferguson was snagged in the middle of the 3rd round. I have not been shy about my love for this kid. I had a 1st round grade on him and I think he slipped because he played for a small school, didn't test off the charts and the NFL banned him from the Combine for an event long in his past. I think he will be an awesome NFL player. Nabbing Myles Boykin later as well meant that the Ravens have now added two new pieces to Lamar Jackson's armoury. Staying in the AFC North and suddenly everything the Cleveland Browns touch turns to gold. No first round pick and yet they end up with a 1st round talent in Greedy Williams. Good job John Dorsey and crew. The Jags are having a draft for the ages as well. A top 5 talent falls in their lap at #7, then they are able to trade up after the guy they had originally zeroed in on for that pick falls to #35 and then they add one of my favourite players in the whole draft in San Jose State Tight End Josh Oliver in the 3rd round. I think that kid has a higher ceiling than Hock or Fant and will prove a great selection. Houston got another high ceiling tackle for their failing offensive line and in Kahale Warring nabbed one of my 7  top TEs and Lonnie Johnson at corner. Also some love for the Green Bay Packers. I was a bit, let's say confused, by their approach to day 1 but Elgton Jenkins and Jace Sternberger are old school sensible Packers picks who will be long term contributors on that roster. The evil empire had another good night too. JoJuan, Winovich and Harris.... they all scream "do your job" Patriots guys. The worst draft so far? Well let me just say DK Metcalf better work out for Seattle. Because they took a guy who I had a 3rd on in the first, then they took a safety who wasn't on my board and a linebacker I have never heard of both from the college football powerhouse that is Utah. Maybe that was the only tape they had in the building? I do not like the Seahawks approach to rebuilding this roster. Oh and honourable mention to poor old Steve Keim and the Cardinals. I loved the Byron Murphy pick to open night two but then having drafted a Quarterback early last year and then a Quarterback early this year they repeated the trick by following slot receiver Christian Kirk with slot receiver Andy Isabella. And then he reached for an edge rusher who doesn't have much rush from Boston College. If the Cardinals stink again this year I suspect Kingsbury is safe..... Keim will not be.  

 

The Mock...

So through round 1 I had 5 exact matches... well three more of my mocked matches in round one came true in round two..... those being Taylor, Lock and JoeJuan Williams. 

 

What's left?

I have 39 players left on my board that I have watched enough to have a grade on. The top 15 is below:

 

1. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

2. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

3. Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

4. David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin

5. Preston Williams*, WR, Colorado State - possible character concerns

6. Joe Jackson, DE, Miami

7. Cortez Broughton, DT, Cincinnati 

8. Vosean Joseph, OLB, Florida

9. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

10. Austin Bryant, DE, Clemson

11. Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M

12. Ross Pierschbacher, C, Alabama

13. Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

14. Amani Hooker, S, Iowa

15. Christian Miller, OLB, Alabama

16. Malik Grant, S, Marshall

 

One day to go and still some talent to be had. The Bills, as it stands, have picked 4 players, have 4 picks remaining but the first of those is 44 picks away. A lot of 4s on day 3. LET'S GO BUFFALO!

 

EDIT: Having mentioned him in the narrative I'd then totally overlooked Trayveon Williams when summarising what is left on the big board. Now included so you actually have a top 16!!

Edited April 27, 2019 by GunnerBill

[dubs]

??

[WideRightRevenge]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Day 2 is in the books and the Bills picked three times so let's get to it....

 

The Bills Picks...

I had a 1st / 2nd round borderline grade on Cody Ford (he was my 21st overall player) and I think he represented good value at #38. I had graded him as my top interior offensive lineman but I think he can play right tackle as well and, critically, even left tackle in a pinch. I don't think he is ever going to be a top flight NFL left tackle, he is a bit too foot slow, but throughout last season my worry was who the hell played left tackle if, at any point, Dawkins went down? I know they brought Nsekhe in as well as a FA but he is 33. Dawkins and Ford could, potentially, be the Bills tackle combo for a few years to come and it is good to have a right tackle who would at a pinch flip to the left side if your starter goes out for the year. I know there have been concerns about his height and his weight but I'm relaxed on both. An NFL conditioning programme will sort one and he still plays with good leverage for a 6'3 guy.

 

I'll come back to Singletary and flip to Dawson Knox. I said that I thought this was the best Tight End class for many a year and I had 7 guys in my top 100 all of whom I thought could contribute as rookies. Knox was the 85th ranked player on my board and the Bills got him at #96 so it represented value for me. I know people worry about his college production but he hasn't been a tight end long, he is a supreme athlete and his tape flashes some incredible athletic ability. I think the surface of his potential has barely even been scratched. He will start the season as a backup to Tyler Kroft (who is a better player than many think) but I think by this time next year Knox will be knocking on the door of the starting job.

 

Which brings me to Singletary. Meh. I don't hate the pick. The Bills did need to get younger at running back and I was keen that they had a guy in the building who could be primed to take over the starter role in 2020 if, as expected, this is Shady's last year as a Bill. That said I just don't feel that way about Singletary. The good? He has good vision, a very good change of direction and his initial burst is better than a 40 speed would indicate. The bad? I think he lacks long speed for the NFL level - I don't think he is a guy who will run away from a secondary, he dances behind the line..... a LOT and talent wise he is no Shady McCoy and I don't know how effective he will be as an early down runner in the NFL. Running out of a lot of spread against vanilla college defenses is one thing... but go stick on the tape of him against legit competition in Oklahoma this last season and Wisconsin the year before. Those defenses were ready for him and they bottled him up. My projection for him at the NFL level is a third down / change of pace back. I think he is a better pass protector than he will get credit for an a better receiver than he had the opportunity to display at FAU. I can see him converting some third downs for us but I do not see an every down starting running back there. Which to me would suggest a 3rd is too rich for my tastes. Picked a round too early by my board and there were other backs - the Texas A&M kid in particular - that I'd have preferred. Don't hate it.... but don't love it either. 

 

What about the other 31....

Let's start with the Baltimore Ravens who I thought got the steal of the night when Jaylon Ferguson was snagged in the middle of the 3rd round. I have not been shy about my love for this kid. I had a 1st round grade on him and I think he slipped because he played for a small school, didn't test off the charts and the NFL banned him from the Combine for an event long in his past. I think he will be an awesome NFL player. Nabbing Myles Boykin later as well meant that the Ravens have now added two new pieces to Lamar Jackson's armoury. Staying in the AFC North and suddenly everything the Cleveland Browns touch turns to gold. No first round pick and yet they end up with a 1st round talent in Greedy Williams. Good job John Dorsey and crew. The Jags are having a draft for the ages as well. A top 5 talent falls in their lap at #7, then they are able to trade up after the guy they had originally zeroed in on for that pick falls to #35 and then they add one of my favourite players in the whole draft in San Jose State Tight End Josh Oliver in the 3rd round. I think that kid has a higher ceiling than Hock or Fant and will prove a great selection. Houston got another high ceiling tackle for their failing offensive line and in Kahale Warring nabbed one of my 7  top TEs and Lonnie Johnson at corner. Also some love for the Green Bay Packers. I was a bit, let's say confused, by their approach to day 1 but Elgton Jenkins and Jace Sternberger are old school sensible Packers picks who will be long term contributors on that roster. The evil empire had another good night too. JoJuan, Winovich and Harris.... they all scream "do your job" Patriots guys. The worst draft so far? Well let me just say DK Metcalf better work out for Seattle. Because they took a guy who I had a 3rd on in the first, then they took a safety who wasn't on my board and a linebacker I have never heard of both from the college football powerhouse that is Utah. Maybe that was the only tape they had in the building? I do not like the Seahawks approach to rebuilding this roster. Oh and honourable mention to poor old Steve Keim and the Cardinals. I loved the Byron Murphy pick to open night two but then having drafted a Quarterback early last year and then a Quarterback early this year they repeated the trick by following slot receiver Christian Kirk with slot receiver Andy Isabella. And then he reached for an edge rusher who doesn't have much rush from Boston College. If the Cardinals stink again this year I suspect Kingsbury is safe..... Keim will not be.  

 

The Mock...

So through round 1 I had 5 exact matches... well three more of my mocked matches in round one came true in round two..... those being Taylor, Lock and JoeJuan Williams. 

 

What's left?

I have 39 players left on my board that I have watched enough to have a grade on. The top 15 is below:

 

1. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

2. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

3. Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

4. David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin

5. Preston Williams*, WR, Colorado State - possible character concerns

6. Joe Jackson, DE, Miami

7. Cortez Broughton, DT, Cincinnati 

8. Vosean Joseph, OLB, Florida

9. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

10. Austin Bryant, DE, Clemson

11. Ross Pierschbacher, C, Alabama

12. Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

13. Amani Hooker, S, Iowa

14. Christian Miller, OLB, Alabama

15. Malik Grant, S, Marshall

 

One day to go and still some talent to be had. The Bills, as it stands, have picked 4 players, have 4 picks remaining but the first of those is 44 picks away. A lot of 4s on day 3. LET'S GO BUFFALO!

 

Gunner as always thank for your work ... I appreciate the opportunity to read your stuff and get your insights.  Much appreciated!!

[simpleman]

The Bills started out strong with their first pick, but only a real fool could have passed up having Oliver fall into your lap. I accept the trade up for Cody, I think he will be a decent player. Still McBeane gave away a similar quality player last year in Glenn, so I'm not sure we moved forward as a team from a year ago with the pick. Cody has about the same ceiling as Glenn did, only Cody is not a premium position LT like Glenn was,  he is a possible average RT, or maybe a very good RG.

 After that we overpaid for two players. Neither was a difference maker, neither with a high ceiling. Both may be good role players, but neither was a prize or a major piece of the future. The cost in extra choices was too much. Now we are drained of useful draft capital for the rest of the draft. We started out with a bang, and ended up with a whimper. I am not devastated by the draft, but disappointed by the results considering the potential it held going into day 2. I still question the ability of McBeane to properly evaluate and draft offensive talent. Time will tell.

Edited April 27, 2019 by simpleman

[yungmack]

Appreciate your good work, Gunner.

[transient]

46 minutes ago, simpleman said:

I accept the trade up for Cody, I think he will be a decent player. Still McBeane gave away a similar quality player last year in Glenn, so I'm not sure we moved forward as a team from a year ago with the pick. Cody has about the same ceiling as Glenn did, only Cody is not a premium position LT like Glenn was,  he is a possible average RT, or maybe a very good RG.

Glenn had a massive contract and ankle issues and by “giving him away” Beane acquired the draft capital to move up and get Allen...

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, transient said:

Glenn had a massive contract and ankle issues and by “giving him away” Beane acquired the draft capital to move up and get Allen...

 

Yea he got a 2nd round pick value back for him. 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, simpleman said:

The Bills started out strong with their first pick, but only a real fool could have passed up having Oliver fall into your lap. I accept the trade up for Cody, I think he will be a decent player. Still McBeane gave away a similar quality player last year in Glenn, so I'm not sure we moved forward as a team from a year ago with the pick. Cody has about the same ceiling as Glenn did, only Cody is not a premium position LT like Glenn was,  he is a possible average RT, or maybe a very good RG.

 After that we overpaid for two players. Neither was a difference maker, neither with a high ceiling. Both may be good role players, but neither was a prize or a major piece of the future. The cost in extra choices was too much. Now we are drained of useful draft capital for the rest of the draft. We started out with a bang, and ended up with a whimper. I am not devastated by the draft, but disappointed by the results considering the potential it held going into day 2. I still question the ability of McBeane to properly evaluate and draft offensive talent. Time will tell.

 

Huh?.... Literally all Knox is, is a “high ceiling”.  He was drafted purely on potential with elite measurables and an underutilized college career. 

[nucci]

1 hour ago, simpleman said:

The Bills started out strong with their first pick, but only a real fool could have passed up having Oliver fall into your lap. I accept the trade up for Cody, I think he will be a decent player. Still McBeane gave away a similar quality player last year in Glenn, so I'm not sure we moved forward as a team from a year ago with the pick. Cody has about the same ceiling as Glenn did, only Cody is not a premium position LT like Glenn was,  he is a possible average RT, or maybe a very good RG.

 After that we overpaid for two players. Neither was a difference maker, neither with a high ceiling. Both may be good role players, but neither was a prize or a major piece of the future. The cost in extra choices was too much. Now we are drained of useful draft capital for the rest of the draft. We started out with a bang, and ended up with a whimper. I am not devastated by the draft, but disappointed by the results considering the potential it held going into day 2. I still question the ability of McBeane to properly evaluate and draft offensive talent. Time will tell.

you sound like you know these players better than everyone else. 2 4th for a 3rd is not overpaying. I also read the Pats were going to draft the TE

Edited April 27, 2019 by nucci

[BuffaloHokie13]

On the RB note, please also remember that Brian Daboll's last 2 stops before Buffalo were Alabama and NE. Both generally keep a very well stocked stable of productive RB's. I won't be surprised at all if there is a heavy rotation - almost DL like - between McCoy, Gore, Yeldon, and Singletary, though I think they will try to have one of the vets in on 3rd down & passing situations.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

On the RB note, please also remember that Brian Daboll's last 2 stops before Buffalo were Alabama and NE. Both generally keep a very well stocked stable of productive RB's. I won't be surprised at all if there is a heavy rotation - almost DL like - between McCoy, Gore, Yeldon, and Singletary, though I think they will try to have one of the vets in on 3rd down & passing situations.

 

I think they keep all 4 and Di Marco. 

[Chandler#81]

9 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Huh?.... Literally all Knox is, is a “high ceiling”.  He was drafted purely on potential with elite measurables and an underutilized college career. 

 

38 minutes ago, transient said:

Glenn had a massive contract and ankle issues and by “giving him away” Beane acquired the draft capital to move up and get Allen...

 

8 minutes ago, nucci said:

you sound like you know these players better than everyone else. 2 4th for a 3rd is not overpaying

 

yeah, but consider the source. You’re talking about a simple man..

[FLFan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they keep all 4 and Di Marco. 

Agree, although I am still hoping they can find a way to move on from the largely unproductive DiMarco and keep an additional skill player on the roster, probably at WR.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FLFan said:

Agree, although I am still hoping they can find a way to move on from the largely unproductive DiMarco and keep an additional skill player on the roster, probably at WR.  

 

Patriots always keep a fullback. Guessing Daboll will too.  

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff GB!! You know that we differ on Singletary. I think that he can be a 3 down back and he just makes guys miss. Teams geared up to stop the guy and he still scored 66 times. He has been ultra-productive despite being the focus of opposing defenses. I expect him to be the lead back in 2020 and a guy that flashes this season. 

 

I am all for the trade-ups as well. There was no chance that the Bills were picking 10 guys. They don’t have the roster space. They were always going to target the guys that they wanted and go get them. The Bills got my favorite player for them (Oliver) and then 3 other guys that I have my top 5 for their positions, maybe even top 4 (Ford wouldn’t have been top 4 if you consider Jonah or Risner an OT). This draft has really raised the talent level on the roster. I see 3 day 1 starters and a dynamic RB.

7 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Agree, although I am still hoping they can find a way to move on from the largely unproductive DiMarco and keep an additional skill player on the roster, probably at WR.  

 

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Patriots always keep a fullback. Guessing Daboll will too.  

I’m hoping Gore can fill the DiMarco role in terms of leadership and being the “tough guy” in the backfield. I’d rather just keep the 4 RBs and punt on DiMarco. Keep an extra WR or OL.

[GunnerBill]

I don't think Knox starts day 1. I do think by the end of the season he might. He is still raw. Though very talented. 

[4merper4mer]

Thanks for this. I predict your #14 prospect, Hooker, goes to the Pats after some rare interference from Kraft.

[CaptnCoke11]

Cracks me up people think Nsekhe will be a swing tackle getting paid 7 million a season.  Waddle was signed for that position.  Nsekhe is going to be the LT imo.  The limited film out there on him you can see he’s better than Dawkins.  

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Cracks me up people think Nsekhe will be a swing tackle getting paid 7 million a season.  Waddle was signed for that position.  Nsekhe is going to be the LT imo.  The limited film out there on him you can see he’s better than Dawkins.  

 

I don't agree. Think he is way overrated. He is a career backup for a reason.

[Lurker]

15 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Cracks me up people think Nsekhe will be a swing tackle getting paid 7 million a season.  Waddle was signed for that position.  Nsekhe is going to be the LT imo.  The limited film out there on him you can see he’s better than Dawkins.  

 

Nseke is basically on a one-year $6.3 million contract.  If he doesn't work out, he has a very managable $1.5 million dead cap hit for 2020...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/ty-nsekhe-11220/

 

Ty Nsekhe signed a 2 year, $10,000,000 contract with the Buffalo Bills, including a $3,000,000 signing bonus, $6,200,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,000,000. In 2019, Nsekhe will earn a base salary of $3,200,000, a signing bonus of $3,000,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $4,800,000 and a dead cap value of $6,200,000.

CONTRACT TERMS:2 yr(s) / $10,000,000

SIGNING BONUS$3,000,000

AVERAGE SALARY$5,000,000

GTD AT SIGN:$6,200,000

TOTAL GTD:$6,200,000

FREE AGENT:2021 / UFA

				BONUS BREAKDOWN			CAP DETAILS		CASH DETAILS
YEAR		AGE	BASE SALARY	SIGNING	ROSTER	WORKOUT	CAP HIT	DEAD CAP	YEARLY CASH
2019		33	$3,200,000	$1,500,000	-	$100,000	$4,800,000	$6,200,000	$6,300,000($6,300,000)
POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 1 YR, $6,300,000; $1,500,000 DEAD CAP
2020		34	$3,100,000	$1,500,000	$500,000	$100,000	$5,200,000	$1,500,000	$3,700,000($10,000,000)
2021		35	UFA