John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

 

Sure you can. Mahomes is much better. It’s not even close and it’s not because of the supporting cast.

 

Same with Watson. Two seasons in a row with 103 rating. Last year this an arguably worse oline than Allen (sacked 62 times)

 

You completely missed the point. But HOW MUCH better? One had a year to sit behind a real pro and learn. He had Andy Reid running the offense. He had amazing talent surrounding him. The other got thrown into the fire almost from day one with a pathetic line and no weapons to speak of. Apples and oranges.

 

How close might they be if Josh had a similar situation? I am NOT saying he’d be Mahomes, but you can’t compare the two because you can’t compare their experiences. One was ideal, and one was horrific. I look forward to seeing it play out. I’m cautiously optimistic with Allen. 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Rookie year: Carson Palmer (6 games) and Drew Stanton  (696 yards)

2nd year: Carson Palmer (16 games)    (1003 yards)

3rd year: Carson Palmer (15 games) and Drew Stanton   (517 yards)

4th year: Carson in his ineffective last year (7 games), Drew Stanton (5 games) and Blaine Gabbert (5 games)  (299 yards in an injury-plagued season with 5 starts and 10 games)

5th year: Joe Flacco (9 games) and Lamar Jackson   (601 yards in Flacco's 9 games and 114 in Jackson's 7)

 

I don't think too many guys would have had consistent production in Brown's circumstances, myself. If Brown stays healthy and Allen raises his game significantly, I think they stand a good chance to be a respectable group.

 

Too many wild cards to get much of a fix on this group but if you keep the bar at "respectable," a solid chance, IMO.

Thurm -

 

I'm excited about having Brown around, and I think the Bills will make good use of him, but I think you're ignoring the obvious.   With the same QB in year 3, he gained half as many yards as in year 2.   He was a big disappointment after his breakout sophomore season.  You can explain away years 4 and 5, or at least try to, but an equally good argument can be made that by his year 3, league had figured him out and he became stoppable.   That is, the league may have a book on him now, and he just can't be expected to be a difference maker.  

 

I think it's a bit of both - the circumstances, and the fact that he isn't a natural Pro Bowl caliber players.   I'm hopeful about him because I think that the game is more about coaching and scheme than talent.   I expect some decent production from Brown because (1) he has speed, (2) Daboll is going to put him in situations that will take advantage of it, (3) Allen will have better protection than last season, allowing him to wait and (4) Allen will know where to find him.   

 

You know what got me excited about the passing game?  Someone has a thread with video of Foster's catches last season, and one thing stood out to me:  Defensive backs can't keep up with Foster running across the field.  When you watch Brown clips, you see the same thing.   And as I think about it, when you see Beasley clips, he often hurts people in similar patterns across the defense.  I think we're going to see the Bills challenging defenses on those plays over and over, and I think Foster and Brown have the potential to really do some damage there. 

 

And for those who remember I said I'm done, what I meant is that I'm done with responding to certain posters, not that I'm done with the conversation.  

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

You completely missed the point. But HOW MUCH better? One had a year to sit behind a real pro and learn. He had Andy Reid running the offense. He had amazing talent surrounding him. The other got thrown into the fire almost from day one with a pathetic line and no weapons to speak of. Apples and oranges.

 

How close might they be if Josh had a similar situation? I am NOT saying he’d be Mahomes, but you can’t compare the two because you can’t compare their experiences. One was ideal, and one was horrific. I look forward to seeing it play out. I’m cautiously optimistic with Allen. 

Not me. I’m recklessly optimistic with Allen. He will be the best QB in his draft class, win the most titles, and become a first ballot HOFer five years after he retires. 

 

Book it, Danno.

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

46 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

You completely missed the point. But HOW MUCH better? One had a year to sit behind a real pro and learn. He had Andy Reid running the offense. He had amazing talent surrounding him. The other got thrown into the fire almost from day one with a pathetic line and no weapons to speak of. Apples and oranges.

 

How close might they be if Josh had a similar situation? I am NOT saying he’d be Mahomes, but you can’t compare the two because you can’t compare their experiences. One was ideal, and one was horrific. I look forward to seeing it play out. I’m cautiously optimistic with Allen. 

 

You can still compare the two. And to answer your question much much better. MVP and 50 TDs. That doesn’t happen because you got to watch Alex Smith for a year and had good playmakers. Allen would not have done that or even come close. Just watch him play!

 

But going  along with what you’re saying even though I disagree with the premise. 

 

This is a thread about how great of a job this regime is doing and you just described the rookie QB ‘s situation as horrific. Who’s to blame for that?

Edited June 14, 2019 by Chemical

[SoTier]

22 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

I also think that it is ok to still be suspicious of Watson and Mahomes.  Let's see this season play out.  If Allen develops as we all hope then, as you say, all is forgiven. Still, let's not anoint Watson and Mahomes just yet.  I certainly feel more confident in Mahomes' future, but, stranger things...

 

I was suspicious of both at the beginning of last season, but both Watson and Mahomes showed that they're the real deal.  If you're suspicious of both or one then I think you haven't watched them play very much.  They both played so well in their second seasons that they didn't look like kids who had played fewer than 10 games and 1 game respectively as rookies.   They are scary good.

 

21 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I wouldn’t say it’s being “suspicious” of Mahomes, but you have to wonder how much how much less production he would have had last year without some top producers he will no longer have.  Josh didn’t get to work with anything like that last year. Could he have gotten the same results? Doubtful, but then he didn’t get the sit and learn year the way Mahomes did. I’ll just remain hopeful. 

 

If Mahomes had only thrown 25 TDs, it would have been as many as veteran Alex Smith had thrown in 2017 with the same offensive cast ... and commentators and fans would still be raving about the way he played, especially his improvisation, accuracy, arm-strength, and decision making.

 

McDermott and Beane chose to essentially gut the team, especially the offense, rather than build on what they had.   That decision has impacted all the players that were on the Bills in 2017 as well as those who joined the team in 2018.   That's the fate of all prospects who get drafted -- they have to sign with the team that drafted them, and that can often play a pivotal role in their careers, and especially QBs who need so much support.   I think that Allen will never put up big passing numbers with the current regime because a high-powered offense does not seem to match their philosophy, but they seem to have learned some lessons from last year and have gotten Allen much better support than he had last year, starting with an experienced QB coach.

 

That Allen didn't get a chance to sit and learn at least for half a season or even a full season, which would have probably been even more beneficial to him than it was  to Mahomes, also rests squarely on McDermott and Beane.  They traded away Taylor.  They chose to acquire McCarron rather than Barkley.  They choose Peterman over McCarron.  They chose to wait a month to sign Anderson after Peterman proved incompetent rather than signing Barkley immediately after the season opener.   Given how bad the OL was and how raw Allen was, the Bills -- and of course Allen -- are lucky he didn't get permanently injured last season.

 

19 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 Now you can see the future and know they will be bottom of the league in a season that has not began yet? Nonsense, You nor I don't know if they will be bottom of the league this season. 

 

The new WR core is a bottom of the league unit when the season hasn't started. Wow, just wow.

 

Let's all dispense with reality and pretend that Beasley, Brown, Foster, and Jones are just as good as AB, Cooper, Beckham, and Edelmann.   Let's pretend that Brian Daboll is Sean McVay's older brother.   Let's pretend that Sean McDermott is a younger version of  Bill Belichick.  Maybe in some alternative universe all those are true and you'll be happy, but they aren't true in this one.

 

17 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, no. Carroll is a fine example. One year with the Jets at 6-10. Let go. Took over a New England team that Parcells had taken to 11-5 the year before and watched them erode as he reshaped them, going 10-6, 9-7 and 8-8 and then being fired. Weirdly, though, some people think Pete Carroll is a coach who could take a team to a Super Bowl title if you keep him around a while and give him good players.

 

And no again, that 12-4 record you mention for Jason Garrett came in Garrett's fifth season there. Not the fourth And more, he then went 4-12 in his sixth season. Probably 95% of all teams would have fired him. Dallas didn't, and they're now seeing the benefits.

 

And Belichick's fourth season in Cleveland clearly wasn't a sign that he had turned the corner on that team, for two reasons. First, his fifth season he went 5-11. The second reason is that he was fired after that 5-11 fifth season. And yet ... many people actually seem to feel that Belichick is a good head coach if you put him in a good situation.

 

If the Bills hover around 6 - 8 wins for the next two seasons ... that simply isn't enough evidence, you need to know more. A smart ownership group would need to due a lot more work figuring out what to do there. If the team's not improving behind the scenes, then yeah, the coach should be fired. But wins are often a phenomenon that is subject to a tipping point ... staying low for a while till a lot of upward trends come together and a tipping point is hit. Jason Garrett is an excellent recent example and there are a lot more of them throughout  NFL history.

 

If they lose because he lost the locker room, then yeah, jettison him. And fast. If they lose because of injuries, or because Josh Allen is improving but slowly, or simply because they haven't hit the tipping point, the smart owner keeps the coach.

 

 

 

 

And you're ignoring my question for you in the post you replied to here ... for obvious reasons. Namely, that the answer destroys your point.

 

To repeat ...

 

Now try and find guys who fit your own requirements ... "a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years ... and succeeded ... in the modern day NFL" ... and was kept around longer and failed? There aren't many because of the quick trigger fingers that modern management has adopted. So we've got four examples of success and not all that many examples of failure. It's a strategy that has worked out a good percentage of the few times it's been tried, even in the modern NFL.

 

Typically, though, in a league where most teams aren't run all that well, this promising strategy which succeeded so often in the past hasn't been used that often despite a pretty decent success rate when tried in the old days and in modern days as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only Garrett fits the description because he was the only one with the same team for consecutive years.  Both Belichick and Carroll were out of the HC ranks for several years before coming back to find quick success in their new gigs: 

• Belichick spent four years as Bill Parcells' DC after his HC stint in Cleveland.  He coached the Pats to the AFCE title and their first Super Bowl in his second season.
• Carroll coached USC for 9 years and was out of the NFL coaching ranks for ten years before he was hired for the Seattle job in 2010.   He took the Seahawks to the playoffs and won his wild card game in 2012 -- with a rookie QB.  In 2013, Carroll's fourth season, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.

Both Belichick and Carroll's losing records as HCs occurred more than 20 years ago BTW.

 

 

12 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Watson has got some really suspect pocket awareness.

 

Maybe if Watson consistently had a pocket around him for a reasonable amount of time, he'd develop more pocket awareness.  The Texans' OL was probably worse than the Bills in pass pro last season.  If the Bills OL doesn't consistently give Allen enough time in the pocket this season, he'll probably garner the same kind of criticism.   I don't think that it's simply coincidental that QBs on teams with good pass protecting OLs seem to develop more pocket awareness than do QBs on teams with poor pass protection.  On teams like the Patriots, Eagles, and Cowboys, even their backup QBs seem to be better at that. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by SoTier

[Augie]

11 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

You can still compare the two. And to answer your question much much better. MVP and 50 TDs. That doesn’t happen because you got to watch Alex Smith for a year and had good playmakers. Allen would not have done that or even come close. Just watch him play!

 

But going  along with what you’re saying even though I disagree with the premise. 

 

This is a thread about how great of a job this regime is doing and you just described the rookie QB ‘s situation as horrific. Who’s to blame for that?

 

I think you know the answer to that. They had a plan. They are now addressing the OLine and weapons on offense. You can’t fix everything at once, especially with their handling of the cap. I get it, you don’t like it. That’s fine. I won’t let it upset me. 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Who's fault is it they had an awful line and no WRs?

See the post directly above yours. 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I was suspicious of both at the beginning of last season, but both Watson and Mahomes showed that they're the real deal.  If you're suspicious of both or one then I think you haven't watched them play very much.  They both played so well in their second seasons that they didn't look like kids who had played fewer than 10 games and 1 game respectively as rookies.   They are scary good.

 

 

If Mahomes had only thrown 25 TDs, it would have been as many as veteran Alex Smith had thrown in 2017 with the same offensive cast ... and commentators and fans would still be raving about the way he played, especially his improvisation, accuracy, arm-strength, and decision making.

 

McDermott and Beane chose to essentially gut the team, especially the offense, rather than build on what they had.   That decision has impacted all the players that were on the Bills in 2017 as well as those who joined the team in 2018.   That's the fate of all prospects who get drafted -- they have to sign with the team that drafted them, and that can often play a pivotal role in their careers, and especially QBs who need so much support.   I think that Allen will never put up big passing numbers with the current regime because a high-powered offense does not seem to match their philosophy, but they seem to have learned some lessons from last year and have gotten Allen much better support than he had last year, starting with an experienced QB coach.

 

That Allen didn't get a chance to sit and learn at least for half a season or even a full season, which would have probably been even more beneficial to him than it was  to Mahomes, also rests squarely on McDermott and Beane.  They traded away Taylor.  They chose to acquire McCarron rather than Barkley.  They choose Peterman over McCarron.  They chose to wait a month to sign Anderson after Peterman proved incompetent rather than signing Barkley immediately after the season opener.   Given how bad the OL was and how raw Allen was, the Bills -- and of course Allen -- are lucky he didn't get permanently injured last season.

 

 

Let's all dispense with reality and pretend that Beasley, Brown, Foster, and Jones are just as good as AB, Cooper, Beckham, and Edelmann.   Let's pretend that Brian Daboll is Sean McVay's older brother.   Let's pretend that Sean McDermott is a younger version of  Bill Belichick.  Maybe in some alternative universe all those are true and you'll be happy, but they aren't true in this one.

 

 

Only Garrett fits the description because he was the only one with the same team for consecutive years.  Both Belichick and Carroll were out of the HC ranks for several years before coming back to find quick success in their new gigs: 

• Belichick spent four years as Bill Parcells' DC after his HC stint in Cleveland.  He coached the Pats to the AFCE title and their first Super Bowl in his second season.
• Carroll coached USC for 9 years and was out of the NFL coaching ranks for ten years before he was hired for the Seattle job in 2010.   He took the Seahawks to the playoffs and won his wild card game in 2012 -- with a rookie QB.  In 2012, Carroll's fourth season, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.

Both Belichick and Carroll's losing records as HCs occurred more than 20 years ago BTW.

 

 

 

Maybe if Watson consistently had a pocket around him for a reasonable amount of time, he'd develop more pocket awareness.  The Texans' OL was probably worse than the Bills in pass pro last season.  If the Bills OL doesn't consistently give Allen enough time in the pocket this season, he'll probably garner the same kind of criticism.   I don't think that it's simply coincidental that QBs on teams with good pass protecting OLs seem to develop more pocket awareness than do QBs on teams with poor pass protection.  On teams like the Patriots, Eagles, and Cowboys, even their backup QBs seem to be better at that. 

 

How bout lets not and stick to the facts of which the post I originally quoted was, you can't say a WR core, especially with some new additions are THE BOTTOM of the league in a season which hasn't started yet.

 

All that jibberish you posted (in regards to quoting me) is just that, jibberish. In no way, shape, or form was I comparing them to those players you listed, so you just posted a bunch of nonsense in that fact. I'm simply stating they can't be the worst in the league in a season that has not started. In all likely hood they will be better than last year, by how much, we don't know.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The cap issue is so overblown here it's ridiculous. It's an excuse for these guys. That's all it is.

 

Only in Scott's world is $50 million + in dead cap is "overblown".  

[Thurman#1]

I'm not ignoring anything, Shaw. I didn't say he'd been consistent. I said I thought it would've been very difficult for anyone in those circumstances to be consistent.

 

And for the record, in those  two years you're talking about, he had 826 offensive snaps in the first, and then 595 in the next. Again, not good circumstances for consistency.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Who's fault is it they had an awful line and no WRs?

The cap issue is so overblown here it's ridiculous. It's an excuse for these guys. That's all it is.

 

 

The fault about their OL was due to the fact that the 2016 Bills didn't have a great OL except for Incognito and Wood.

 

I forget, didn't something happen to those two. They also had Glenn but needed to trade him for cap relief and to get in a much better place to allow them to draft Josh Allen. Pretty much the same for the WRs. One quite good player in Woods who they couldn't sign for cap reasons and one up and down one in Watkins who they again traded for cap relief and draft capital to bring in Allen.

 

For about the 18th time - no matter how little you want to hear it - they had terrible cap problems that Beane promised the Pegulas in his job interview that he would solve before the 2019 season. Which then forced him to spend very very little money on the 2018 offense to fill the gaps. This year shows what they do when they have cap space.

 

And no, the cap issue was anything but overblown. They took massive action. And got massive results, which is why they so very quickly went from a terrible situation to an excellent one.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Who's fault is it they had an awful line and no WRs?

The cap issue is so overblown here it's ridiculous. It's an excuse for these guys. That's all it is.

Total crock. 

 

All of your consternation, ALL OF IT, comes from the fact that the Bills have deliberately set forth on a strategy that you disagree with and, because it’s not the way YOU would do it, it’s wrong. And when any element of that strategy is explained, it’s just an excuse. 

 

Have you written your letter to the Bills demanding that apology you are owed? 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Only Garrett fits the description because he was the only one with the same team for consecutive years.  Both Belichick and Carroll were out of the HC ranks for several years before coming back to find quick success in their new gigs: 

• Belichick spent four years as Bill Parcells' DC after his HC stint in Cleveland.  He coached the Pats to the AFCE title and their first Super Bowl in his second season.
• Carroll coached USC for 9 years and was out of the NFL coaching ranks for ten years before he was hired for the Seattle job in 2010.   He took the Seahawks to the playoffs and won his wild card game in 2012 -- with a rookie QB.  In 2012, Carroll's fourth season, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.

Both Belichick and Carroll's losing records as HCs occurred more than 20 years ago BTW.

 

 

 

No, Belichick and Carroll and Kubiak all fit the description just fine. Nothing was said in the original description Scott proposed about whether guys were out of the head coaching ranks for several years. Typical that the already spectacularly restrictive description isn't producing results you like, so you just add in yet another condition and pretend it had been there all along.

 

That they couldn't get a head coaching job after their earlier regimes made massive mistakes by firing them doesn't mean those weren't massive mistakes. 

 

And you also ignore the argument he ignored. For the same reason, that the results don't fit your preferred narrative. So, for you too ...

 

 

 

 

Now try and find guys who fit [Scott's proposed] requirements ... "a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years ... and succeeded ... in the modern day NFL" ... and was kept around longer and failed? There aren't many because of the quick trigger fingers that modern management has adopted. So we've got four examples of success and not all that many examples of failure. It's a strategy that has worked out a good percentage of the few times it's been tried, even in the modern NFL.

 

And you should probably restrict that even further the way you're trying to do when looking at successes. You only want to look at guys who did not have time off from HCing after being fired for doing poorly? Fine. You have to apply the same requirement to failures too, then. How many coaches fit the original requirements plus your new one ... who then failed. The answer will be zero, won't it? If I've missed someone let me know!!

 

Which would mean that even if we go along with your nonsensical extra condition and throw out Belichick and Carroll, leaving only Garrett as a success in the modern game ... would then leave ... who? ... as a failure. In other words, a good strategy that's gone one for one in the modern game, but still isn't being used by owners unable to marshal the patience for it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

See the post directly above yours. 

Dont bother, its like talking to a brick wall.

[Thurman#1]

42 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

How bout lets not and stick to the facts of which the post I originally quoted was, you can't say a WR core, especially with some new additions are THE BOTTOM of the league in a season which hasn't started yet.

 

All that jibberish you posted (in regards to quoting me) is just that, jibberish. In no way, shape, or form was I comparing them to those players you listed, so you just posted a bunch of nonsense in that fact. I'm simply stating they can't be the worst in the league in a season that has not started. In all likely hood they will be better than last year, by how much, we don't know.

 

 

 

Yup.

 

If you can't show somebody's argument doesn't make sense ... pretend he said something else. Just go ahead and write up some straw man nonsense and counter your own straw man by yourself. Pretend your opponent compared the Bills WRs to Edelman, AB, Cooper and Beckham and you're doing something saying they don't compare.

 

It's the kind of move these guys need to make fairly often because they just don't have much in the way of sensible arguments.

[Cripple Creek]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't. 

Then you’ve never seen a career cut drastically short.

[Royale with Cheese]

36 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep. That they created. 

 

Yep....the Bills made a mistake by letting Dareus go just like the Skins made a mistake in letting Haynesworth go.  They were producing to the level of their contracts.

Same with Sammy Watkins.  Since he was on the team with the NFL MVP...I think he had something like 110 catches, 1,2000 receiving yards and 10 TD's.  Same with the Rams.  Was that right Scott?

[oldmanfan]

47 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep. That they created. 

And if they hadn't you'd complain that they didn't.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

16 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 Now you can see the future and know they will be bottom of the league in a season that has not began yet? Nonsense, You nor I don't know if they will be bottom of the league this season. 

 

The new WR core is a bottom of the league unit when the season hasn't started. Wow, just wow.

 

you don't need to see the future to know as has been pointed out, their career stats are far from overwhelming.  Will the unit be improved yes.  If Allan also continues to improve this group could look much better.  I'm a believer that more often than people realize the QB makes the WR's look special so if Allan is the real deal, we may be just one true WR away from an elite group.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yep....the Bills made a mistake by letting Dareus go just like the Skins made a mistake in letting Haynesworth go.  They were producing to the level of their contracts.

Same with Sammy Watkins.  Since he was on the team with the NFL MVP...I think he had something like 110 catches, 1,2000 receiving yards and 10 TD's.  Same with the Rams.  Was that right Scott?

 

Sammy has what would have been the catch to send them to the super bowl if Dee Ford hadn’t been lined up “Offside”

 

Dareus is better than Star and Sammy is better than any receiver we have had since.