Josh Allen vs Carson Wentz - Rookie Season

[wppete]

 

[eball]

Good find!  I bet Carson had better weapons and a better OL as well!

[BillsBlue]

7 minutes ago, wppete said:

JOSH ALLEN IS GOING TO PUT THE LEAGUE ON NOTICE THIS YEAR(IF HE HASN'T ALREADY LAST YEAR )

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Let's hope Josh stays healthier. Their combine measurements are nearly identical as well.

[GunnerBill]

Some of us did say at the time Carson's rookie year was way overrated. He was very good for 4 games and then pretty much sucked from there. After week 4 Wentz was:

 

Played: 12

Total TDs: 11

Total Turnovers: 16

1.9% TD % (Pass)

Completion %: 61%

9.6 yards per completion

5.8 yards per attempt

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

[ProcessAccepted]

Today with all the data available I'd take Allen over Wentz. #17 has a much higher ceiling. I'm hopeful that McD and Beane can get him the supporting talent to help him reach it.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Today with all the data available I'd take Allen over Wentz. #17 has a much higher ceiling. I'm hopeful that McD and Beane can get him the supporting talent to help him reach it.

 

 

Me too.  Wentz is too prone to injury to last long in this league.  Allen is a beast.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Me too.  Wentz is too prone to injury to last long in this league.  Allen is a beast.

 

His injuries are a legitimate concern. That said we shouldn't skate over the fact that Allen missed a stretch of games there his rookie year too.

[ngbills]

Why are we comparing the two? Just because they were both rookies at one time. The stats only show part of the pic and they are different players. 

 

For example:

Wentz threw for over 250 yds in 6 games 

Allen never threw for 250

 

Allen rushed for over 35 yards in 5 games

Wentz never rushed for 35

 

They are different players with different skill sets. Its pointless to compare them based on a handful of stats. 

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Some of us did say at the time Carson's rookie year was way overrated. He was very good for 4 games and then pretty much sucked from there. After week 4 Wentz was:

 

Played: 12

Total TDs: 11

Total Turnovers: 16

1.9% TD % (Pass)

Completion %: 61%

9.6 yards per completion

5.8 yards per attempt

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

 

Bingo. And circle gets the square 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Bangarang

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

 

Whereas Allen got BETTER as the season went on.

 

[Shaw66]

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Whereas Allen got BETTER as the season went on.

 

 

He did. He was much improved post his injury. It wasn't exactly a smooth upward curve but his average performance post injury was better than his average performance pre injury. No doubt about that.

[Mr. WEO]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His injuries are a legitimate concern. That said we shouldn't skate over the fact that Allen missed a stretch of games there his rookie year too.

 

It turns out his injury was far less serious than they initially thought.  He probably could have come back earlier.

 

Wentz has a long list of injuries: broken wrist, fractured ribs, ACL tear, back injury (which he had beginning in high school.  Plus he sounds like a D-bag to play with.

[Jay_Fixit]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

True, but your rebuttal is cherry picked as well.

 

The TD% and YPA is important, and if you care about ESPN’s created QBR then that is a factor as well.

 

Not to mention Wentz had Ertz and Sproles to help out that comp%. Sproles had 52 catches out of the backfield. And their backup TE, Trey Burton, had 37 catches which would have been 2nd on the Bills this year. So Wentz had some good safety blankets at his disposal.

 

If we’re cherry picking of course...

[ProcessAccepted]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

 

He will be with an improved set of receivers

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

True, but your rebuttal is cherry picked as well.

 

The TD% and YPA is important, and if you care about ESPN’s created QBR then that is a factor as well.

 

Not to mention Wentz had Ertz and Sproles to help out that comp%. Sproles had 52 catches out of the backfield. And their backup TE, Trey Burton, had 37 catches which would have been 2nd on the Bills this year. So Wentz had some good safety blankets at his disposal.

 

If we’re cherry picking of course...

I have this discussion all the time.  The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks.   ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB.    

 

Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR.   Doesn't matter.   Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating.  That makes all the difference.

 

I don't care how well Josh Allen runs.   If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope.   

Just now, ProcessAccepted said:

 

He will be with an improved set of receivers

 

 

I think he will be improved, but for a better reason than the change in receivers.   He will improve because of coaching and because of the experience he gained last season. 

 

In particular, his completion percentage, and thus his passer rating, will go up in 2019 because he will throw more short passes, including check downs.   That's what his coaches want, and he's a coachable guy.   

 

Better receivers will help, but it's Josh's decision making that will make the real difference. 

[Jay_Fixit]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I have this discussion all the time.  The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks.   ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB.    

 

Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR.   Doesn't matter.   Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating.  That makes all the difference.

 

I don't care how well Josh Allen runs.   If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope.   

Right, and that’s true. But the difference between a 79 QB rating and 67 is not that much. We’re talking about rookie seasons here. And rookie seasons with 2 totally different talent levels.

 

Josh definitely has to get up over that 90 mark but we can’t be upset if he falls a bit short this season. I’d be ok if he was in the low to mid 80 range.

 

It shows improvement.

 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Right, and that’s true. But the difference between a 79 QB rating and 67 is not that much. We’re talking about rookie seasons here. And rookie seasons with 2 totally different talent levels.

 

Josh definitely has to get up over that 90 mark but we can’t be upset if he falls a bit short this season. I’d be ok if he was in the low to mid 80 range.

 

It shows improvement.

 

Me too.   I'm expecting more, but I agree with your point.   

 

I'm a big believer in the notion that it takes several years to become a good NFL QB.  I know there are rookie phenoms, and there are exceptions, but there's a pretty long learning curve.  

 

As you say, Josh has to get to the mid-80s in 2019, minimum.   If he doesn't, there's something wrong.  But as I said earlier, the emphasis for Josh this season is going to be taking the easy throw, the throw he can complete 90% of the time instead of 50%.   All it takes is discipline.   He needs to understand, and I think he already does, that it's better to have a lot of small, positive plays than a few big plays.   Assuming he gets that, we're going to see him checking down more, in situations  where last season he looked at the check down guy and then threw downfield.   

 

And Beasley will make a big difference.   Josh is going to be looking for Beasley a lot when his first option isn't there.   I think Duke Williams will help a lot, too.  

[JESSEFEFFER]

 

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I have this discussion all the time.  The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks.   ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB.    

 

Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR.   Doesn't matter.   Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating.  That makes all the difference.

 

I don't care how well Josh Allen runs.   If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope.   

I think he will be improved, but for a better reason than the change in receivers.   He will improve because of coaching and because of the experience he gained last season. 

 

In particular, his completion percentage, and thus his passer rating, will go up in 2019 because he will throw more short passes, including check downs.   That's what his coaches want, and he's a coachable guy.   

 

Better receivers will help, but it's Josh's decision making that will make the real difference. 

 

I do not have the same respect for passer rating as you.  Avoid a sack, escape the pocket and throw the ball away?  A good play that hurts passer rating.  Score a TD on a sneak or a 15+ yard scramble where several tackles are broke?  Good/great plays that passer rating does not care about.  Take a sack by holding the ball too long or running out-of-bounds behind the line?  Bad plays that passer rating does not measure.  Failing to secure the ball while being hit and fumble?  Another bad play ignored by passer rating.  Throw and complete a pass for 6 yards on 3rd and 11?  Inconsequential but passer rating loves it and gives it a 92.

 

I do not think Josh will ever max out on passer rating.  He will tend to score more TDs running than most because he is good at it and it's low hanging fruit, avoid sacks, and throw to the sticks on 3rd down.  Thus, passing TD% is lower and completion % is lower.

 

I tend to respect tQBR more because it tries to evaluate every play in it's context but it is a mystery how Allen got a tQBR of 19.4 for the game vs. the Lions (passer rating 89.3) where Stafford got an 83.3(106.7) in a game won by the Bills 14-13.  That is a head scratcher and good counter evidence for those that do not like it.