Mister Defense Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just curious, as I was just--finally--reading about Duke Williams' story, including why he was not drafted, and his great CFL stats. Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL, he has been great. Yes, he got kicked out of Auburn, but when he did so took full responsibility. And then went on to dominate in the CFL. With Foster now, if Duke is good a significant Bills weakness last year will be a big strength. So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: Just curious, as I was just--finally--reading about Duke Williams' story, including why he was not drafted, and his great CFL stats. Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL, he has been great. Yes, he got kicked out of Auburn, but when he did so took full responsibility. And then went on to dominate in the CFL. With Foster now, if Duke is good a significant Bills weakness last year will be a big strength. So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL? idk, but i think duke is gonna look like moulds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister Defense Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, billsredneck1 said: idk, but i think duke is gonna look like moulds. Just looking at some videos now--a good comparison, I think. And fits in well, as does Foster, with Allen's skills. If this works out, then the Bills can be a much improved team this year, as a weakness became a strength with almost no cost, and then the Bills can focus on other areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 It's got to be low - like 1% or less low. That's a guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Linen said: It's got to be low - like 1% or less low. That's a guess. How many of them were Duke Williams? 0%. to the OP, in the end, I think it depends more on the individual rather than any statistical correlation. We're about to find out - start a spreadsheet now and let's track this going forward. CFL2NFL.com ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Heitz said: How many of them were Duke Williams? 0%. to the OP, in the end, I think it depends more on the individual rather than any statistical correlation. We're about to find out - start a spreadsheet now and let's track this going forward. CFL2NFL.com ? ? How does that answer the question? When did I say Duke Williams played in the NFL prior and failed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Lets see if the guy can even make the roster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I dont know the statistics but Fred Biletnikoff, Joe Horn and Chad Johnson are the poster boys for erstwhile CFL guys finding success in the NFL. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/120284/nfl-stars-with-ties-to-the-cfl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL, he has been great. Not to split hairs, but his Auburn stats aren't that great. He wasn't even the #1 WR on the Tigers in 2014... Receiving & Rushing Receiving Rushing Scrimmage Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD Career Auburn 57 877 15.4 6 0 0 0 57 877 15.4 6 *2014 Auburn SEC JR WR 10 45 730 16.2 5 0 0 0 45 730 16.2 5 *2015 Auburn SEC SR WR 5 12 147 12.3 1 0 0 0 12 147 12.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4_kidd_4 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Not very high, they get pretty winded from that extra down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 It is an interesting question. I took a different angle regarding Duke’s potential for success and it had to do with top tier JUCO prospects. Duke Williams was the #1 ranked JUCO prospect in 2014. I read that after he first signed but never gave it much thought. As this thread appeared, I thought I would look into the JUCO history to see if there was anything interesting to note and here is what I found: Top 3 rated JUCO prospects by year as shown by 247 Sports: 2018: Saivion Smith CB from Alabama declared early and is a 3rd round prospect – others in class not out yet 2017: Jarrett Stidham QB: 2019 mid round prospect Isaiah Buggs DT: 2019 2nd round prospect Kendall Sheffield CB: 2019 3rd round prospect 2016: Jonathan Kongbo DE: Torn ACL in 10/18 and future unknown Charles Baldwin OT: transferred from Alabama to Kansas to Youngstown State Garrett Bolles OT: 2017 1st round pick (20) by Broncos and has been a starter since 2015: Jovon Robinson RB: Dismissed from Auburn program in 2016 *Alvin Kamara RB: 3rd round pick Saints Marquavius Lewis DE: UDFA spent time with Bills in 2018 before injury settlement 2014: D’Haquille “Duke” Williams WR: UDFA Packers and CFL star signed with Bills in 1/19 Dominick Jackson OT: UDFA with Redskins in 2016 but released without making roster *Tyreek Hill WR: 5th round pick KC Chiefs 2013: Lavon Hooks DT: UDFA with Packers and currently Steelers Risean Broussard DT: UDFA with Chiefs but released without making roster Beau Sandland TE: Drafted in the 7th round by Carolina in 2016 and currently with Cardinals 2012: Cordarrelle Patterson WR: Drafted 1st round by Vikings and spent the past year with Patriots Gerald Bowman S: UDFA signed by Ravens in 2015 but did not make roster *Denico Autry DE: UDFA with Raiders in 2014 and signed 3 year 17mil contact with Colts in 2018 (had 9 sacks in 2018) 2011: Cornelius Carradine DE: 2nd round pick by 49ers 2013-2017 and 2018 with Raiders *Sheldon Richardson DT: 1st round pick by Jets in 2013 and currently with Vikings Jesse Williams DT: 5th Round pick by Seahawks from 2013-2015 2010: *Bruce Irvin DE: 1st round pick Seahawks in 2012 currently with Falcons Wayne Dorsey DE: UDFA Raiders from 2012-2014 *Cam Newton QB: 1st round pick Panthers 2009: James Aviona DT: UDFA signed with Colts in 2013 but not rostered *Jason Pierre-Paul DE: 1st round pick Giants now with Tampa Bay Hebron Fangupo DT: UDFA 2012-2015 with Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, Redskins In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come. The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents. So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, White Linen said: How does that answer the question? When did I say Duke Williams played in the NFL prior and failed? How does your 1% self-admitted "guess" answer it? At least my statistic wasn't just made up! ? The point I was making, to the OP, was "who cares" - Williams is going to fail / succeed on his own merits, not based on any other CFL receiver. I mean, how many CFL players at ANY position make it in the NFL? Not a lot, so extrapolate that to WRs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Not sure exactly what were suppose to look at, cfl receivers that have made a 53, a 90, or just played in the cfl. In any case its got to be very low. I bet for players that haven't made a 53 0% is a lot closer than 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: Just curious, as I was just--finally--reading about Duke Williams' story, including why he was not drafted, and his great CFL stats. Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL, he has been great. Yes, he got kicked out of Auburn, but when he did so took full responsibility. And then went on to dominate in the CFL. With Foster now, if Duke is good a significant Bills weakness last year will be a big strength. So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL? I think you are asking the wrong question. This isn't a typical CFL story where a guy had to go there because he needed to prove he can play. Talent was never the issue with Duke, it was his own actions that led to him not having the opportunity to play yet in the NFL. I think the more accurate questions is at what rate do players with early troubles mature to reach their potential. And there are a lot of success stories, including HOF WR Cris Carter. People are underestimating his talent level based on comments I have seen in various threads mostly because of the fact he played in the "CFL". But this guy is more talented than people realize and I think he will not only make the roster, but could win a starting spot...hopefully opposite DK Metcalf ? Edited February 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: Just looking at some videos now--a good comparison, I think. And fits in well, as does Foster, with Allen's skills. If this works out, then the Bills can be a much improved team this year, as a weakness became a strength with almost no cost, and then the Bills can focus on other areas. 15 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said: Lets see if the guy can even make the roster. I love the offseason. @Mister Defense is talking about Duke Williams making the WR group a strength and @Boca BIlls is talking about him making the team. FWIW, I’d put the odds of Duke making the WR’s a strength at +9500 and I’d put the odds of him making the roster at -130. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I love the offseason. @Mister Defense is talking about Duke Williams making the WR group a strength and @Boca BIlls is talking about him making the team. FWIW, I’d put the odds of Duke making the WR’s a strength at +9500 and I’d put the odds of him making the roster at -130. I’ll definitely lay $50 on +9500. I mean you just have to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: I’ll definitely lay $50 on +9500. I mean you just have to. Yeah and I’m not sure how you’d have to quantify “turning a weakness into a strength.” If the Bills trade for AB and find some dynamic rookie it could become a strength even if Duke Williams catches 4 balls on the year. There has to be some criteria to defining him as the “needle mover.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 34.7% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 59 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: Just curious, as I was just--finally--reading about Duke Williams' story, including why he was not drafted, and his great CFL stats. Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL, he has been great. Yes, he got kicked out of Auburn, but when he did so took full responsibility. And then went on to dominate in the CFL. With Foster now, if Duke is good a significant Bills weakness last year will be a big strength. So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL? Even if Duke pans out, it is a serious strech to say WR will be a strengh for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Yeah and I’m not sure how you’d have to quantify “turning a weakness into a strength.” If the Bills trade for AB and find some dynamic rookie it could become a strength even if Duke Williams catches 4 balls on the year. There has to be some criteria to defining him as the “needle mover.” Duke Williams is more on a strength than Boldin was on the Bills I would be willing to bet. But I am willing to say AB is slightly more an upgrade than Duke at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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