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At what rate do former CFL receivers succeed in the NFL?


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40 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
 

 

In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come. 

The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents. 

So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area. 

 

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Thanks; the kind of stats I was looking for, in part.   Great, detailed stuff here!

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23 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

 

Even if Duke pans out, it is a serious strech to say WR will be a strengh for us

 

Well, Foster was one of the best receivers in the NFL in the second half of last season. 

 

So if Duke plays as well as he has throughout most of his college and pro career, as Foster continues to produce, and as Allen progresses, then the wide receivers could be a strength.  It does not seem like much of a stretch.  (But like anything in sports, yes, it may very well not all come together.)

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1 hour ago, Heitz said:

 

How does your 1% self-admitted "guess" answer it?  At least my statistic wasn't just made up! ?

 

The point I was making, to the OP, was "who cares" - Williams is going to fail / succeed on his own merits, not based on any other CFL receiver.  I mean, how many CFL players at ANY position make it in the NFL?  Not a lot, so extrapolate that to WRs...

 

Because it's an answer - that's how it's an answer.  Saying Duke doesn't count in the calculation (yet) doesn't answer the success rate.  

 

What's the problem?

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Well, looking at it from the opposite view, UB's Naman Roosevelt played briefly for the Bills over 2 seasons after being promoted from the practice squad, but after he was cut in the final cutdown if 2012, didn't make another NFL roster.  He went to the CFL and has had a solid career there, making the divisional All Star team in 2017.

 

So, a bottom of an NFL roster player is a solid starter in the CFL.  This of course does not take into account the improvements in his play while in the CFL. 

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2 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Just looking at some videos now--a good comparison, I think.  And fits in well, as does Foster, with Allen's skills.

 

If this works out, then the Bills can be a much improved team this year, as a weakness became a strength with almost no cost, and then the Bills can focus on other areas.

 

If the bills go from one of the worst WR groups in recent memory to it being a strength due to a UDFA that they cut midseason and a CFL signing.... beane sold his soul to the devil.

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3 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL?

 

I'd wager that it's fairly low. With some notable exceptions, the CFL is populated with talent that simply isn't good enough to make it in the NFL.

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2 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I dont know the statistics but Fred Biletnikoff, Joe Horn and Chad Johnson are the poster boys for erstwhile CFL guys finding success in the NFL.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/120284/nfl-stars-with-ties-to-the-cfl

 

Biletnikoff & Johnson both played in the CFL after their careers in the NFL had ended.  That means it's just Joe Horn.

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6 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I dont know the statistics but Fred Biletnikoff, Joe Horn and Chad Johnson are the poster boys for erstwhile CFL guys finding success in the NFL.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/120284/nfl-stars-with-ties-to-the-cfl

 

Either you used erstwhile wrong, or Joe Horn was the only one you got right.

3 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Anyone doing anything here but guessing?  From the tapes of this guy, he certainly deserves a good shot.

 Aren't you doing just as much guessing then? Deserves a good shot?

4 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

Well, looking at it from the opposite view, UB's Naman Roosevelt played briefly for the Bills over 2 seasons after being promoted from the practice squad, but after he was cut in the final cutdown if 2012, didn't make another NFL roster.  He went to the CFL and has had a solid career there, making the divisional All Star team in 2017.

 

So, a bottom of an NFL roster player is a solid starter in the CFL.  This of course does not take into account the improvements in his play while in the CFL. 

 

This is like saying a 4th line forward in the NHL who scored 2 goals had a great and long career in the AHL and was never called up. So we're not taking into account his improvements at 25-28 in the AHL.

 

It's completely backwards. What are you talking about?

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3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

If the bills go from one of the worst WR groups in recent memory to it being a strength due to a UDFA that they cut midseason and a CFL signing.... beane sold his soul to the devil.

 

Trust me. We dont have to worry about old Terry hiring someone who will sell his soul to the devil. The guy loves bringing religion into everything. 

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The obsession with a #1 WR in the group is more of a fan thing.  I do not believe that the Bills think that way.  I think that in McDermott's brain a #1 WR = Diva and Divas are not process/team guys.  Any WR coming from Canada should have been humbled and thankful for an NFL shot.   Humbled and thankful are good WR traits.

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Other things that are/were 34.7%
Bush's approval ratings in March of 2007
Body fat on a clinically obese man or woman

The amount that apple production fell in Poland due to adverse weather in 2017 compared to 2016

 

I think it's clear from this correlation that Duke will be Eric Moulds 2.0

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This guy is a complete wild card.  He carried major off the field problems that he needed to resolve, which appears to have been done.  He could be a Cris Carter type player that needed a major wake up call to get him motivated.  Or, he could be a low to mid level talent that thrives in a league of weak players.  We are about 3-4 months away about finding out which one.  At this point it is all just speculation. 

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13 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 

Just curious, as I was just--finally--reading about Duke Williams' story, including why he was not drafted, and his great CFL stats. Whenever he has played, in junior college, in Auburn, and in the CFL,  he has been great.  Yes,  he got kicked out of Auburn, but when he did so took full responsibility.  And then went on to dominate in the CFL. 

 

With Foster now, if Duke is good a significant Bills weakness last year will be a big strength.

 

So what is the success rate of CFL receivers in the NFL?

I mean how big is the sample size? And how many were there due to off the field stuff and not talent?

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