Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yup.  And again the incident last off-season really put him behind the 8-ball going into camp and the season.  I think he makes the roster.

 

 

Well, he played 1-1/2 games with Peterman and Barkley.  So his average was 70 yards/game in those games.   And again he didn't play with Anderson.

 

But it was disingenuous of him (surprise) to talk about Foster's per game average with Allen, knowing his early-season play was poor and led to his temporary demotion.

Right. IMO it’s silly to talk about any connection between the 2 until foster got called back up and Allen came back post injury. They were both developing rookies and, quite obviously, very different players down the stretch run...... but that doesn’t fit his narrative. 

21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Blathering idiot at the bar making things up and people just think he's right because he says it with conviction and a lot of words.

 

He's basically a politician, just making up things and hiding it behind a lot of words 

Shockingly it works in politics because people still don't know how to do an internet search.

It doesn't work here because sports fans are bloodhounds ?

That about sums it up. 

 

[Ronin]

5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I already did the homework. It takes 2 seconds to look up his game logs and figure it out. You state he played with 2 other qb’s in 4 different games and averaged over 80 ypg in those games. That’s 100% fabricated. He played with peterman and Barkley for a total of 2 games and had 105 total yds. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FostRo01/gamelog/2018/

 

you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about and there’s about a full page of people stating that one or 2 pages back.... it was when you conveniently disappeared right after we said you were making numbers up. 

 

 

 

You are correct about Foster, I had condfused the week #'s with the game #'s because he missed a bunch of games and they don't align like they do for the others.  Sorry bout that.  Still, don't make too much of it, it's hardly an integral piece to this overall puzzle.  

 

Allen missed games 7-10.  The starters in those games were Anderson, Anderson, Peterman, and Barkley.  

 

That alters nothing re: Allen's overall play either way.  He still averaged a mere 182 yards/start, and even over his last 6 after coming back from injury only 207 yards/game, with an even lower compl.% than he did in the early going.  That doesn't bode well no matter what anyone says.  Whether he corrects it remains to be seen..  

 

Jones for example, the team's leading WR, not that he's good, just sayin', had 21 catches in those four games for 193 yards, keep in mind, under those four QBs.  After Allen's return he had 19 catches for 260 or 5 yards fewer/game.  

 

Here's another thing however that I just noticed that anyone should consider to be tremendously significant, particularly for Jones, Jones' catch% in four games against crap QBs was 70.0%.  Under Allen it was 48.6%.  It was even worse in the 6 games after Allen's return where it was 44.2%.  

 

Suggesting that Allen had nothing to do with that is silly.  Any true fan should be highly concerned over that.  

 

[Ronin]

5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’m also gonna quote more false numbers posted by @TaskersGhost so this can really sink in for him. 

 

 

I honestly think maybe if he really sees what he’s doing it might sink in. I wanna help the dude. Somethings not firing right. It’s intervention time 

 

 

LOL 

 

It's intervention time for anyone that's encouraged by Allen's rookie passing numbers.  Honestly, he was among THE worst QBs in the entire league passing, he was down there with Rosen, with Rosen even being better in some aspects.  Mayfield of course, Darnold, and even Jackson were better in the passing department.  

 

This is just a mud-slinging exercise for most.  

 

Through 15 games and prior to that last Miami game Allen had averaged 168 yards/game passing, had 7 TDs and 11 INTs in 11 other games, not to mention fumbles at the rate of nearly 1/game, Kizer-like, a 63.7 rating. 

 

On the season Allen was ranked 32nd of 33 in Adjusted YPA despite his "deep arm," the same in YPA, the same in INT%, 31st of 33 in TD%, 33rd in Compl. %, 32nd in YPG, 32nd in Rating, 32nd in Net YPA, 32nd in Adj. Net YPA, and even 26th in sack%, something he's supposed to be good at avoiding. .  Rosen was right there next to him all the time.  

 

This doesn't even mention his league-leading turnover rate of nearly 2 TOs/game.  Apparently that's irrelevant too.  LOL 

 

So it seems to me that anyone thinking that Allen's "on the cusp" are the ones that need the intervention. LOL  

 

Seriously, who looks at those numbers and isn't HIGHLY concerned.  And oh year, a DT in the first round will help.   

Edited April 2, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

LOL 

 

It's intervention time for anyone that's encouraged by Allen's rookie passing numbers.  Honestly, he was among THE worst QBs in the entire league passing, he was down there with Rosen, with Rosen even being better in some aspects.  Mayfield of course, Darnold, and even Jackson were better in the passing department.  

 

This is just a mud-slinging exercise for most.  

 

Through 15 games and prior to that last Miami game Allen had averaged 168 yards/game passing, had 7 TDs and 11 INTs in 11 other games, not to mention fumbles at the rate of nearly 1/game, Kizer-like, a 63.7 rating. 

 

On the season Allen was ranked 32nd of 33 in Adjusted YPA despite his "deep arm," the same in YPA, the same in INT%, 31st of 33 in TD%, 33rd in Compl. %, 32nd in YPG, 32nd in Rating, 32nd in Net YPA, 32nd in Adj. Net YPA, and even 26th in sack%, something he's supposed to be good at avoiding. .  Rosen was right there next to him all the time.  

 

This doesn't even mention his league-leading turnover rate of nearly 2 TOs/game.  Apparently that's irrelevant too.  LOL 

 

So it seems to me that anyone thinking that Allen's "on the cusp" are the ones that need the intervention. LOL  

 

Seriously, who looks at those numbers and isn't HIGHLY concerned.  And oh year, a DT in the first round will help.   

 

So I guess you are immune to the word PROGRESS.  

 

Its pretty ridiculous to look at his season long stats versus looking at how he improved and progressed throughout the season.  But hey, that would not help your agenda, so I get why you are ignoring it and instead trying to force a different narrative.  

 

Guess what I don't care about...his stats before he got hurt.  Guess what I and everyone else without a negative agenda cares about...how he improved over the season and managed to improve with a terrible, one of the worst in the NFL in fact, supporting cast.  

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out...never understood why people prefer to force their negative agenda rather than just be honest about what really happened.  Allen showed a lot of improvement over the season.  Case Closed.

 

Also, try WATCHING games instead of stat box checking.  There isn't anything as worthless as stat box checking when it comes to analyzing NFL players.  They can't be relied on to tell the whole story, ever.  Every single individual player on the field is highly impacted by the other 10 guys next to him on every single play.  Anyone who isnt blind saw immense potential and significant improvement from Josh as the season went on.  He is NOT there yet, but he was a freaking rookie and what matters is that he made very noticeable progress to getting there despite having the worst supporting cast around him in the NFL.  

 

GO BILLS.  GO JOSH.  

[Ronin]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So I guess you are immune to the word PROGRESS.  

 

Its pretty ridiculous to look at his season long stats versus looking at how he improved and progressed throughout the season.  But hey, that would not help your agenda, so I get why you are ignoring it and instead trying to force a different narrative.  

 

Guess what I don't care about...his stats before he got hurt.  Guess what I and everyone else without a negative agenda cares about...how he improved over the season and managed to improve with a terrible, one of the worst in the NFL in fact, supporting cast.  

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out...never understood why people prefer to force their negative agenda rather than just be honest about what really happened.  Allen showed a lot of improvement over the season.  Case Closed.

 

Also, try WATCHING games instead of stat box checking.  There isn't anything as worthless as stat box checking when it comes to analyzing NFL players.  They can't be relied on to tell the whole story, ever.  Every single individual player on the field is highly impacted by the other 10 guys next to him on every single play.  Anyone who isnt blind saw immense potential and significant improvement from Josh as the season went on.  He is NOT there yet, but he was a freaking rookie and what matters is that he made very noticeable progress to getting there despite having the worst supporting cast around him in the NFL.  

 

GO BILLS.  GO JOSH.  

 

I never said he didn't progress, but where you fail to accept the data is that even after this implied iconic improvement he was still bottom-dwelling.  He STILL wasn't good and as I pointed out, his compl. %, arguably the single thing that he had to work on the most, actually got worse by a couple points.  Progress?  

 

Here are his Red Zone stats, which aren't good.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/red-zone-passing-plays/2018

 

He only had 5 Red Zone completions in 10 games that weren't against Miami.  That's problematic.  

 

GO BILLS, GO JOSH indeed.  But you saying it isn't going to make him go.  He'll have to do it on his own.  Even the coaches are going to have a difficult time getting into his head to correct things.  Again, remember, he has a nasty habit of running anything his primary target isn't open.  We've all see the wide-open receivers, often times visibily frustrated, because he didn't see them because he was looking long. 

 

That's simply going to have to change and you don't change that by popular opinion and the coaches will have a difficult time correcting that.  It's simply not a trait that's ever been overcome in the NFL to the extent that a QB turns it around and becomes a franchise QB.  

 

Again, we all want the team to win, hell, I'd love nothing more than for us to return to what it was like in the early '90s.  The difference between me and just about everyone else is that I realize that simply because we all agree on it won't change a dam thing, but attempting to correct the problems that he has should be a priority, ignoring them will not help make those corrections.  As well, realizing that yes, he could have a better OL, but that some of the issues involve Allen himself, not simply the other 10 guys on the starting offense, particularly given that he missed a whole lot of open receivers last year.  An open receiver is an open receiver, doesn't matter if it's Zay Jones or OBJ, open is open on any given play.  If a QB doesn't see an open man, it's on the QB.  

 

[Rebel101]

On 2/27/2019 at 3:46 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I could be wrong, but this is just what I believe based on the additions I expect Beane to make in the WR room.  I have no issues if others don't agree, just my opinion on the matter, nothing more.  

 

I have consistently said this all off season, and McDermott just said something again that enforces that belief.  I think they see how the Rams cleared out their WR room and so did the Bears and in both cases their young QB's took big strides as passers.  Eagles did the same for Wentz too.  

 

"We're looking for guys that can get open and catch the ball."  Yes, that is an obvious trait for any WR, but also its telling that he and Beane keep making these comments given the struggles all year, including Zay, to do these very basic things.  

 

I think the WR room will be crowded once free agency and the draft is over (likely 2 to 3 additions) and Zay is going to be someone who has to really impress in camp to make this roster.   Right now, there is not one part of being a wide receiver that Zay does particularly well outside of his reported good work ethic.  

 

1. Hands:  Struggles catching the ball.  Makes easy catches look hard and drops too many passes.
2. Separation:  Has struggled to get separation, especially playing on the outside.  
3. Route Running:  Part of his issue with getting separation is his inconsistent route running.
4. Speed:  He has average speed.  He is fast enough to play in the league, but to be consistent with his speed he needs to be a good route runner.  
5. Physicality:  He is easily man handled by physical corners.  Games like the Lions and Pats this year he was dominated physically for example.  
6. Contested Catches:  One of the weakest part of his game.
7. Catch Radius:  Very limited mostly due to his inconsistent hands and lack of physicality.  

 

Foster:  Penciled in as a projected #2 WR.  However, if we bring in a potential starter in FA and also draft one early, then Foster is no lock for #2 and could be used more out of the slot or as a deep threat.  Additionally, if we draft say Metcalf or make a splashy trade for someone like Brown (less likely), then Duke could make a real challenge for #2 as a big catch radius compliment to a #1 who poses a real deep threat opposite him. 

 

Duke:  He has to prove himself in the NFL, I get that.  But if we take an honest assessment of him, his issues were never talent related.  He isn't a speed burner, but he has a big catch radius, runs good routes, and has great hands.  He could legit compete for the #2 opposite a big play #1.  Even if not a #2, its more than reasonable he has a legit shot to make this team and compete for minutes.  

 

Zay:  Best suited for the slot, however his lack of consistent hands and his issues with separation make his spot there vulnerable.  If our top 2 WR's this next season dont include Foster, then I can easily see Foster challenging to play in the slot, and he already has surpassed Zay.  

 

We are adding at least 2 additonal WR's (and maybe 3) this offseason expected to start or compete to start to go along with the 3 guys already here.  With McD and Beanes consistent comments about getting open and catching the ball, I think Zay is in trouble and will be a training camp or preseason trade for a 4th round or conditional 5th round pick.  

Ridiculous Zay Jones has been said by McDermott as one of the hardest working players on the team. Which means he will only get better. His work ethic will keep him from getting cut and he will be a lot better. Most receivers struggle for the first 2 years and shine in their third 3. There has been a few receivers in the last few years who have come in and been great right away but usually receivers take 3 years to adjust. Jones will benefit from his work ethic and the addition of the FAs and our WR Corp will be decent this year

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

LOL

 

This is a good response to numerous people telling you to stop making up numbers. What a weird thing to do.

[Ronin]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a good response to numerous people telling you to stop making up numbers. What a weird thing to do.

 

It's even more weird ignoring a wealth of data on the topic that's most relevant while dwelling something that's incredibly less relevant, wouldn't you say?  

 

It's also very weird that few people, AHEM, actually deal with facts & numbers most relevant when arguing against something, again, wouldn't you say?  

 

See AlphaDog's post above in response to the litany of essentially DFL stats I put up.  

 

I get it, y'all think that Allen's a shoe-in for franchise status.  I do, I get it.  Just not seeing it based upon the work he'd have to do to get himself there. 

 

For example, let's deal with something concrete.  What are your thoughts on his status per those stats several posts above, the ones that Alpha complained about but didn't address?  Do you think that ANY are relevant?  All are the fault of anyone but Allen?  What?  

 

And don't believe me, look at his stats yourself.  

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Teddy KGB]

18 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I never said he didn't progress, but where you fail to accept the data is that even after this implied iconic improvement he was still bottom-dwelling.  He STILL wasn't good and as I pointed out, his compl. %, arguably the single thing that he had to work on the most, actually got worse by a couple points.  Progress?  

 

Here are his Red Zone stats, which aren't good.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/red-zone-passing-plays/2018

 

He only had 5 Red Zone completions in 10 games that weren't against Miami.  That's problematic.  

 

GO BILLS, GO JOSH indeed.  But you saying it isn't going to make him go.  He'll have to do it on his own.  Even the coaches are going to have a difficult time getting into his head to correct things.  Again, remember, he has a nasty habit of running anything his primary target isn't open.  We've all see the wide-open receivers, often times visibily frustrated, because he didn't see them because he was looking long. 

 

That's simply going to have to change and you don't change that by popular opinion and the coaches will have a difficult time correcting that.  It's simply not a trait that's ever been overcome in the NFL to the extent that a QB turns it around and becomes a franchise QB.  

 

Again, we all want the team to win, hell, I'd love nothing more than for us to return to what it was like in the early '90s.  The difference between me and just about everyone else is that I realize that simply because we all agree on it won't change a dam thing, but attempting to correct the problems that he has should be a priority, ignoring them will not help make those corrections.  As well, realizing that yes, he could have a better OL, but that some of the issues involve Allen himself, not simply the other 10 guys on the starting offense, particularly given that he missed a whole lot of open receivers last year.  An open receiver is an open receiver, doesn't matter if it's Zay Jones or OBJ, open is open on any given play.  If a QB doesn't see an open man, it's on the QB.  

 

 

Need more input 

 

[Ronin]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a good response to numerous people telling you to stop making up numbers. What a weird thing to do.

 

Here, I'll spoon feed you one; 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing.htm#passing::26

 

Allen ranked 32nd (of 33) in Adjusted YPA.  

 

Does that strike you as odd?  Why or why not?   (HINT:  What's the narrative on Allen?  How does one reconcile that narrative with that fact?)  

 

In your world is it cause for any concern, or do you view that as insignificant?  

 

Again, this is just one, but let's start there.  I'll wager you won't take that on directly.  You'll divert the reasons for it or some other nonsense, but I'll defer and give you the opportunity anyway.  

 

BTW, people have compared Newton to Allen, but  Newton in his rookie season was ranked 14th there.   In Allen's place were Ponder, Gabbert, Painter, Skelton, McCoy, and Bradford.  Manuel started better in that regard.  

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[BobDVA]

Zay Jones will not only be on the roster, but he will lead the team in receptions and touchdowns!  You may quote me on this in December.  It usually takes until the third year for a WR to hit their stride, welcome to year three.

[Stank_Nasty]

I think we have all heard of “The boy that cried wolf”...

 

if i remember correctly nobody cared squat about anything he had to say, even if it may have been accurate, because he showed he was capable of being a lying jack wagon beforehand. 

[Ronin]

11 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Need more input 

 

Then supply it.  

 

It's 2019, stats are available online like whores are in Vegas.  

[Teddy KGB]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Then supply it.  

 

It's 2019, stats are available online like whores are in Vegas.  

 

 No one cares about anything you post.    Sorry ??‍♂️

[MJS]

There's no reason this thread should have 23 pages. Please let it die.

[Ronin]

15 minutes ago, BobDVA said:

Zay Jones will not only be on the roster, but he will lead the team in receptions and touchdowns!  You may quote me on this in December.  It usually takes until the third year for a WR to hit their stride, welcome to year three.

 

You sure about that, taking 3 years to "hit their stride?"  

 

Does that apply, in your opinion, to WRs drafted in rounds 1 & 2, or what?  Because obviously there's a difference between a 7th-round WR and a 1st or 2nd round one, particularly early in round 2 and one that's taken before another like Smith-Shuster.   

 

How do you explain Moore, Ridley, & Sutton, the first and last of those didn't have great QB situations either?   Or Callaway, taken in the 4th round, all from last year's draft?  

 

How about Smith-Shuster, Kupp, Godwin, or Golladay from 2017?  Anomalies, all of them?  

 

Well over half of them were drafted after Jones' 37th overall.  Just sayin'.  

 

It's easy to say something or repeat a narrative, it's more difficult to question it and challenge whether or not it's true or not.  

 

In today's NFL, while yes, players often but not always improve, it's not difficult to post great WR numbers as a rookie with a good QB.  According to everyone here Allen was quite good with little, if any, cause for concern over his future.  So obviously it can't be Allen.  

 

Also, how does Jones' catch%, which you realize is bottom-dwelling, right, factor in, particularly since it was horrific, as in DFL in the NFL horrific, with Allen throwing the ball?  43%.  Is there a reason to suspect that that catch% will increase this season under similar circumstances?  If so, why, specifically?  

 

He may lead the team, who knows, but with Beasley, a much more polished receiver, along with Brown and Foster, I'm thinking it's not likely.  

 

Looking forward to your analysis per above.  

13 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 No one cares about anything you post.    Sorry ??‍♂️

 

Then why are you responding? 

 

I mean does what you just wrote have any relevance?  :shrug:  

 

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Here, I'll spoon feed you one; 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing.htm#passing::26

 

Allen ranked 32nd (of 33) in Adjusted YPA.  

 

Does that strike you as odd?  Why or why not?   (HINT:  What's the narrative on Allen?  How does one reconcile that narrative with that fact?)  

 

In your world is it cause for any concern, or do you view that as insignificant?  

 

Again, this is just one, but let's start there.  I'll wager you won't take that on directly.  You'll divert the reasons for it or some other nonsense, but I'll defer and give you the opportunity anyway.  

 

BTW, people have compared Newton to Allen, but  Newton in his rookie season was ranked 14th there.   In Allen's place were Ponder, Gabbert, Painter, Skelton, McCoy, and Bradford.  Manuel started better in that regard.  

 

Was it adjusted for all the drops, throwaways, and poor routes?  If not, it's just a theoretical equation pulled out of someone's backside.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Was it adjusted for all the drops, throwaways, and poor routes?  If not, it's just a theoretical equation pulled out of someone's backside.

When I think of drops, throwaways, poor routes,poor ball security and horrid blocking I think of Zay Jones and Croom.

[Doc]

33 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

When I think of drops, throwaways, poor routes,poor ball security and horrid blocking I think of Zay Jones and Croom.

 

Add-in Clay and Benjamin as well.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Add-in Clay and Benjamin as well.

True....its just that those guys are no longer with the team.

 

Rooting for Zay though