McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I will take it further...........the entirety of the work in 2019.........week-in-and-week-out..........will decide whether the regime continues.

 

And that's no inside info..........that's just how it ALWAYS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT.

 

Rex didn't get fired because he was 7-9..........they were a Carpenter missed field goal in OT of week 16 against Miami of being 8-7 with a favorable matchup in week 16 against the Jets.

 

It was the best offense we'd seen in Buffalo in 25 years........despite Sammy Watkins missing much of the year.

 

But even if they got to 9-7 Rex was on the hotseat.

 

Rex was fired because the owner and GM lost confidence in him...........two years in a row there were several games where it was clear they weren't prepared well.

 

McD has plenty of blemishes on his record...........the worst Bills HC against Belichick...........numerous embarrassing blowouts(7 or 8 in two years!)...........the Peterman embarrassments/fiasco's that made the organization a national joke.

 

As the body of work expands those kind of failures need to stop and a week-to-week consistently high quality, competitive product needs to be put on the field.

 

That's a much better way to say it.  It is the entire body of work, and in the case of this HC, it's the entire body of work measured against very precisely defined goals and objectives.  

 

When I was responding to Virgil, I almost mentioned the blowout losses, too.   They have to stop.   Now, even Belichick gets blown out once in a while, actually almost every season.   But three or four in a season says the team is seriously deficient in some ways.    

 

Week to week high quality competitive product is right.  I think it's possible to do that and go 7-9, even 6-10 under unusual circumstances.   

 

I like what you said. 

[Inigo Montoya]

I think Terry and Kim will give Beane and McD all the time they need.  If Allen becomes a legit QB, Beane and McD will both be in Buffalo for a long time. The Pegulas know that if they pull the plug on them they are looking at another 2-3 year rebuild and no one wants that.  (Especially when they are trying to build a new stadium).  Unless Allen is a disaster and McDermott just craps the bed, I think the Pegulas will keep Beane and McD around and let them build something here.

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's a much better way to say it.  It is the entire body of work, and in the case of this HC, it's the entire body of work measured against very precisely defined goals and objectives.  

 

When I was responding to Virgil, I almost mentioned the blowout losses, too.   They have to stop.   Now, even Belichick gets blown out once in a while, actually almost every season.   But three or four in a season says the team is seriously deficient in some ways.    

 

Week to week high quality competitive product is right.  I think it's possible to do that and go 7-9, even 6-10 under unusual circumstances.   

 

I like what you said. 

 

 

Yeah I agree that the record itself won't be the deciding factor.   That's far too simplistic.

 

I'd also add that last year McDermott's team turned into one of the sloppiest and most penalized teams in the NFL

 

That's the kind of thing that gets forgotten in the offseason........but in the "real time" of the season......when the owner is assessing the future of his HC........that is a REALLY bad look for a team that's not winning and getting blown out in some games.

 

That kind of perceived lack of discipline was a very real factor in Rex Ryan's firing as well............if you want to play defense and field position(which you have to do with the an offense as bad as the Bills in 2018) then you need to minimize mistakes and turnovers...........and last year they suffered a precipitous drop in turnover differential from +9 to -5. 

 

There are a ton of moving parts wrt the McBeane doing things that will extend the owner's confidence in them.

 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I agree that the record itself won't be the deciding factor.   That's far too simplistic.

 

I'd also add that last year McDermott's team turned into one of the sloppiest and most penalized teams in the NFL

 

That's the kind of thing that gets forgotten in the offseason........but in the "real time" of the season......when the owner is assessing the future of his HC........that is a REALLY bad look for a team that's not winning and getting blown out in some games.

 

That kind of perceived lack of discipline was a very real factor in Rex Ryan's firing as well............if you want to play defense and field position(which you have to do with the an offense as bad as the Bills in 2018) then you need to minimize mistakes and turnovers...........and last year they suffered a precipitous drop in turnover differential from +9 to -5. 

 

There are a ton of moving parts wrt the McBeane doing things that will extend the owner's confidence in them.

 

 

 

 

I think this is pretty fair assessment...

 

McDermott seems to be an excellent motivator and might have a good eye for defensive players, but I think areas of his and the teams on field performance require improvement...

 

I just feel though that unless there is a total disaster they will survive 2019..

 

We are all expecting the squad this year that they assemble in 2019 to be improved over the 2018 version which had a lot of deficiencies...Therefore I think its reasonable to expect an improved record - even 3+ wins improved in my view...

 

If they don't achieve this then I think the seat will be pretty warm in 2020...

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[BillsSB2020]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Bears are a good template to follow. My standard for the Bills this season is what the Bears did last season - compete for a playoff spot, and look ready to compete for a Super Bowl the following year. That is more than fair to expect given the draft picks and cap space they've left themselves.

 

The Rams are not a good example. They recklessly spent draft picks and cap space which gave them a very short window to win the Super Bowl. That window has already begun to close, and when a bunch of their players inevitably leave they won't have the draft picks to rebuild the team. And Goff doesn't look like a championship QB. I think they're going to be in very big trouble by 2020. Last year was their shot.

I like the way you think! It seems like everyone is either in the FIRE THEM camp or the 2020 camp. I'm optimistic because I believe in these guys, but I really expect more this season than those in the 2020 camp. This is the year I believe the rebuild will bear major fruit. I will have to reassess after the season if this is a 7-9 campaign.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

I think this is pretty fair assessment...

 

McDermott seems to be an excellent motivator and might have a good eye for defensive players, but I think areas of his and the teams on field performance require improvement...

 

I just feel though that unless there is a total disaster they will survive 2019..

 

We are all expecting the squad this year that they assemble in 2019 to be improved over the 2018 version which had a lot of deficiencies...Therefore I think its reasonable to expect an improved record - even 3+ wins improved in my view...

 

If they don't achieve this then I think the seat will be pretty warm in 2020...

 

 

 

 

Yeah I am working under the assumption that they will survive 2019.............and the reason is that they have shown an ability to admit mistakes and correct them.

 

I can't imagine them having such a sloppy team next year..........or such a terrible offense..........I think they know they need to improve them or else........so I expect they will.

 

Rex wore thin fast because he didn't own up to his mistakes and he certainly didn't fix them...........his defense was confused and the penalties kept coming.

 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I will take it further...........the entirety of the work in 2019.........week-in-and-week-out..........will decide whether the regime continues.

 

And that's no inside info..........that's just how it ALWAYS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT.

 

Rex didn't get fired because he was 7-9..........they were a Carpenter missed field goal in OT of week 16 against Miami of being 8-7 with a favorable matchup in week 16 against the Jets.

 

It was the best offense we'd seen in Buffalo in 25 years........despite Sammy Watkins missing much of the year.

 

But even if they got to 9-7 Rex was on the hotseat.

 

Rex was fired because the owner and GM lost confidence in him...........two years in a row there were several games where it was clear they weren't prepared well.

 

McD has plenty of blemishes on his record...........the worst Bills HC against Belichick...........numerous embarrassing blowouts(7 or 8 in two years!)...........the Peterman embarrassments/fiasco's that made the organization a national joke.

 

As the body of work expands those kind of failures need to stop and a week-to-week consistently high quality, competitive product needs to be put on the field.

 

 

I challenge how you remember that offense.  Yes, it scored points and was well ranked.  But just like records, ranks don't mean as much.  We were a top tier offense the way we were a top tier defense this past season.  We still got blown out quite a few times same as our offense did absolutely nothing quite a few times.  

 

Our offense was similar to the Ravens this year.  Some teams were prepared, some were not.  It worked until it didn't and when it didn't, it was terrible.  It was an offense that would only get you so far, and was never sustainable.

 

Also, that offense was all Roman and Lynn, not Rex.  Rex got fired because he lost the locker room as well as not getting the team prepared.  He relied on passion and motivation, not process and structure.  That works if you win, buries you if you lose. 

 

We lost

[mjt328]

On 2/15/2019 at 11:12 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

Disagree completely.

 

Two years ago, Brandon Beane took over as General Manager and immediately began trading players for picks.  The majority of people covering the NFL (and a large group of our own fans) said the Bills were tanking and expected them to be competing for the #1 Pick in the draft.  Instead, this team ended up winning 9 games and making the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.

 

Last year, Beane completed the tear-down.  We went into the season knowing our rookie QB would probably be starting a good chunk of games.  The same people once again claimed the Bills would be the NFL's worst franchise, and expected us to compete for the #1 Pick in the draft.  Instead, this team ended up winning 6 games and was a Charles Clay drop from winning 7, against one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.

 

So if this team consistently wins 4-5 more games than expected.... then either Sean McDermott is a WAY better coach than anyone gives him credit for, or this team is better than anyone gives it credit for.  They are certainly not overrated.

 

Beane, McDermott and everyone in the Bills organization EXPECTS Josh Allen to take a big step forward this season.  There is no backup plan for Allen failing to progress.  This year will be about surrounding him with better blocking, better weapons, and watching him take-off.  We were exactly .500 (5-5) in the games Allen started and finished as a rookie, with one of the worst supporting casts in the league.  With Clay making that catch, we are 6-4.  Now if we can give him some help, and he improves just a little bit as a passer... is it totally unrealistic to win 9,10 or 11 games?  Considering that New England won the AFC East with 11 wins last season... that would by definition, make us a contender in 2019.

 

 

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Disagree completely.

 

Two years ago, Brandon Beane took over as General Manager and immediately began trading players for picks.  The majority of people covering the NFL (and a large group of our own fans) said the Bills were tanking and expected them to be competing for the #1 Pick in the draft.  Instead, this team ended up winning 9 games and making the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.

 

Last year, Beane completed the tear-down.  We went into the season knowing our rookie QB would probably be starting a good chunk of games.  The same people once again claimed the Bills would be the NFL's worst franchise, and expected us to compete for the #1 Pick in the draft.  Instead, this team ended up winning 6 games and was a Charles Clay drop from winning 7, against one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.

 

So if this team consistently wins 4-5 more games than expected.... then either Sean McDermott is a WAY better coach than anyone gives him credit for, or this team is better than anyone gives it credit for.  They are certainly not overrated.

 

Beane, McDermott and everyone in the Bills organization EXPECTS Josh Allen to take a big step forward this season.  There is no backup plan for Allen failing to progress.  This year will be about surrounding him with better blocking, better weapons, and watching him take-off.  We were exactly .500 (5-5) in the games Allen started and finished as a rookie, with one of the worst supporting casts in the league.  With Clay making that catch, we are 6-4.  Now if we can give him some help, and he improves just a little bit as a passer... is it totally unrealistic to win 9,10 or 11 games?  Considering that New England won the AFC East with 11 wins last season... that would by definition, make us a contender in 2019.

 

 

It's funny.  When you step back and look at it, there are multiple, different, equally valid ways to look at what McBeane have done since they arrived.  Your view is my view when I'm feeling most optimistic.   

 

You've reminded me of some things, one of which is that in the first several weeks of the 2018 season many people, on this board, in the media and around the country were talking about the 2018 Bills possibly being the worst team in NFL history.   Football Outsiders wrote weekly about it for about six weeks, comparing the Bills' DVOA to the worst teams in history.  Even after the Bills beat the Vikings, worst ever continued to be the theme.  No on was calling them the worst ever in December.

 

And as you point out, this was a team where many of the stars and near stars had been sent packing (Watkins, Dareus, Gilmore, Woods, Glenn, Taylor, Preston Brown), they had a second year head coach, a rookie defensive coordinator, a completely unsettled quarterback situation and no receivers. 

 

Looked at from that perspective, there's no reason to be unhappy with McBeane after their first two years.   But that's one perspective.  As others have pointed out, there have been serious telltale signs of dysfunctionality, like horribly lopsided losses, undisciplined performance (the flood of penalties) and some totally unfathomable player personnel decision making (Peterman.   I mean, really?).  Those are signs that McD's team is out of control and McD doesn't know what he's doing.   I can't sit here and feel all warm and fuzzy about the Bills when I think about them at their worst over the past two years. 

 

These conflicting thoughts lead me to the conclusion I stated before:  in some ways, 2019 is the the first year we really get to see what McBeane have been doing.  Over their first two seasons, there has been some bad coaching and some good coaching, there have been some bad personnel decisions and some good ones,, there have been some bad games and some good ones.   In 2019, there are no explanations, no excuses.   They will have players they chose, they will not have been hampered by salary cap constraints, McD will have his coaching and teaching process firmly implanted in his core players, including his QB and MLB.  McD will have had a couple years to develop and refine his head coaching skills and to correct initial mistakes in the head coaching ranks.   The 2019 team will be the first team under McBeane's leadership that will show what kind of football their process produces.  It won't be the full-blown version of McBeane football, because a lot of the players on the field will be in their first year of the McBeane process, but it will be the first version.   2020 will be the second.   

 

If McBeane know what they're doing, 2019 will be measurably better than 2018, both in terms of individual play and wins (they should win 8-9, maybe more).  If they don't know what they're doing, we'll see more sloppy play, more lopsided losses, more inconsistent performances.   If that happens AND if they win 6 or fewer, it's possible they won't get the chance to see how their process works in 2020.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I challenge how you remember that offense.  Yes, it scored points and was well ranked.  But just like records, ranks don't mean as much.  We were a top tier offense the way we were a top tier defense this past season.  We still got blown out quite a few times same as our offense did absolutely nothing quite a few times.  

 

Our offense was similar to the Ravens this year.  Some teams were prepared, some were not.  It worked until it didn't and when it didn't, it was terrible.  It was an offense that would only get you so far, and was never sustainable.

 

Also, that offense was all Roman and Lynn, not Rex.  Rex got fired because he lost the locker room as well as not getting the team prepared.  He relied on passion and motivation, not process and structure.  That works if you win, buries you if you lose. 

 

We lost

 

 

The offense that you challenge my memory of:

 

1) Had the fewest turnovers of any NFL team thru 15 games since the merger.

 

2)They lead the NFL in rushing...by a large margin......for the second consecutive season.

 

3) They lead the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more.......aka 'big plays"........for the second consecutive season.

 

4) They set a franchise single game record for yardage in week 16.

 

I think you short change that offense.

 

Yeah, they had some bad games.........and I'm not saying they were great.........my sales point was that they were the 7th highest scoring offense........I'm low-balling it.........they were the best offense the Bills have had since their second SB season.    Having a defense ranked near the bottom of DVOA(28th I believe) was the problem.

 

Again......not saying they were "great"........but even great offenses have bad games.........see the Rams at Chicago this year........or in the Super Bowl.

 

Comparing that Bills offense to the Bills 2018 defense is a major stretch though.

 

The 2018 Bills D really had one significant strong stat........overall yardage allowed.

 

Which was aided by the fact that the Bills provided teams with the best drive start of any team in the NFL.

 

In short.......teams had less yardage to get scores.

 

They were poor in the redzone.........they were poor at rushing the passer and they didn't create turnovers.

 

Not a significant defense in terms of recent Bills history...........maybe the 15th best since the Bills second SB season?

 

Hence my point.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The offense that you challenge my memory of:

 

1) Had the fewest turnovers of any NFL team thru 15 games since the merger.

 

2)They lead the NFL in rushing...by a large margin......for the second consecutive season.

 

3) They lead the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more.......aka 'big plays"........for the second consecutive season.

 

4) They set a franchise single game record for yardage in week 16.

 

I think you short change that offense.

 

Yeah, they had some bad games.........and I'm not saying they were great.........my sales point was that they were the 7th highest scoring offense........I'm low-balling it.........they were the best offense the Bills have had since their second SB season.    Having a defense ranked near the bottom of DVOA(28th I believe) was the problem.

 

Again......not saying they were "great"........but even great offenses have bad games.........see the Rams at Chicago this year........or in the Super Bowl.

 

Comparing that Bills offense to the Bills 2018 defense is a major stretch though.

 

The 2018 Bills D really had one significant strong stat........overall yardage allowed.

 

Which was aided by the fact that the Bills provided teams with the best drive start of any team in the NFL.

 

In short.......teams had less yardage to get scores.

 

They were poor in the redzone.........they were poor at rushing the passer and they didn't create turnovers.

 

Not a significant defense in terms of recent Bills history...........maybe the 15th best since the Bills second SB season?

 

Hence my point.

Pretty strong arguments.  Thanks. 

[mjt328]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's funny.  When you step back and look at it, there are multiple, different, equally valid ways to look at what McBeane have done since they arrived.  Your view is my view when I'm feeling most optimistic.   

 

You've reminded me of some things, one of which is that in the first several weeks of the 2018 season many people, on this board, in the media and around the country were talking about the 2018 Bills possibly being the worst team in NFL history.   Football Outsiders wrote weekly about it for about six weeks, comparing the Bills' DVOA to the worst teams in history.  Even after the Bills beat the Vikings, worst ever continued to be the theme.  No on was calling them the worst ever in December.

 

And as you point out, this was a team where many of the stars and near stars had been sent packing (Watkins, Dareus, Gilmore, Woods, Glenn, Taylor, Preston Brown), they had a second year head coach, a rookie defensive coordinator, a completely unsettled quarterback situation and no receivers. 

 

Looked at from that perspective, there's no reason to be unhappy with McBeane after their first two years.   But that's one perspective.  As others have pointed out, there have been serious telltale signs of dysfunctionality, like horribly lopsided losses, undisciplined performance (the flood of penalties) and some totally unfathomable player personnel decision making (Peterman.   I mean, really?).  Those are signs that McD's team is out of control and McD doesn't know what he's doing.   I can't sit here and feel all warm and fuzzy about the Bills when I think about them at their worst over the past two years. 

 

These conflicting thoughts lead me to the conclusion I stated before:  in some ways, 2019 is the the first year we really get to see what McBeane have been doing.  Over their first two seasons, there has been some bad coaching and some good coaching, there have been some bad personnel decisions and some good ones,, there have been some bad games and some good ones.   In 2019, there are no explanations, no excuses.   They will have players they chose, they will not have been hampered by salary cap constraints, McD will have his coaching and teaching process firmly implanted in his core players, including his QB and MLB.  McD will have had a couple years to develop and refine his head coaching skills and to correct initial mistakes in the head coaching ranks.   The 2019 team will be the first team under McBeane's leadership that will show what kind of football their process produces.  It won't be the full-blown version of McBeane football, because a lot of the players on the field will be in their first year of the McBeane process, but it will be the first version.   2020 will be the second.   

 

If McBeane know what they're doing, 2019 will be measurably better than 2018, both in terms of individual play and wins (they should win 8-9, maybe more).  If they don't know what they're doing, we'll see more sloppy play, more lopsided losses, more inconsistent performances.   If that happens AND if they win 6 or fewer, it's possible they won't get the chance to see how their process works in 2020.

 

Bills fans have been through a lot over the last two decades.  They are skeptical, pessimistic and easily frustrated.

Around the league, we have a reputation as one of the NFL's bottom-dwellers.  Each year, we are written-off and expected to suck by almost everyone.

 

When judging my team and making expectations for an upcoming, I try to separate my emotional feelings.  I want to base my thoughts on reality.  I don't want to get too over-hyped based on what I hope they do.  But I also don't want to become too negative, just because I'm afraid of them disappointing and letting me down.

 

With that said -- Even if the Bills were not my favorite team, there are signs that we are moving in the right direction.

No front office is going to be perfect.  No coaching staff is going to be perfect.

Anyone with realistic expectations knew this was going to be a rebuild project.  And the reasoning for our lopsided losses, sloppy play, penalties, etc. can generally be attributed to areas of the team where this regime hasn't been able to properly address the position.  Where this regime has been able to dedicate Day 1-2 draft picks and free agent contracts, we are looking pretty good.

 

 

 

[BillsVet]

Here are 7 rebuilding franchises in the past decade:

 

KC: 2-14 in 2012, Reid went 31-17 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances

HOU: 2-14 in 2013, O'Brien 27-21 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances

LAC:  5-11 in 2016, Lynn goes 21-11 first 2 seasons with 1 playoff appearance (Reached conference championship in 2nd season)

PHI: 7-9 in 2015, Pederson goes 29-19 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (1 SB win)

MIN: 5-10-1 in 2013, Zimmer goes 26-22 first 3 seasons with 1 playoff appearance

LAR: 4-12 in 2016, McVay goes 24-8 first 2 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (Reached SB in 2nd season)

SEA: 5-11 in 2009, Carroll goes 25-23 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (on SB in 4th season)

 

Every one of those franchises showed something by the end of year 3.  Because in this league, if you've not won by that point, typically it's time to start over.   

 

You don't need 4 off-seasons to rebuild a team, nor should anyone delay expectations that far. 

[NoSaint]

On 2/15/2019 at 11:12 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

 

2-4 are the prime window, not 3-5. If he’s the real deal we have a decade plus of opportunity but you are tossing one of the most premium years out the window simply because you are cool with rookie mistakes for several years it seems.

[Inigo Montoya]

 

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

2-4 are the prime window, not 3-5. If he’s the real deal we have a decade plus of opportunity but you are tossing one of the most premium years out the window simply because you are cool with rookie mistakes for several years it seems.

 

My post says the team will be ready to make a run in years 3-5 of Allen's rookie contract.  I do expect Allen to be much improved this year just like he was improved after he returned from injury. I still don't think the roster will be in a position to start making deep playoff runs this year.  We should definitely add some talent this off season, but I don't know if it will be enough to truly contend for a Super Bowl this year. Still too soon for that I think.   I do think a Wild Card is definitely possible this year and I would be a bit disappointed if we don't make the post season. 

 

I think this season McBeane will fill in most of the remaining gaps in the roster and our young roster will benefit from one more year of experience.   In 2020 we go into free agency looking for a couple of key veteran pieces that we need to make us real contenders, and then it's game on.

 

Of course, this is just my opinion and it is based solely upon speculation, conjecture, and spilling the entrails of a chicken and reading the portents.

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, BillsVet said:

Here are 7 rebuilding franchises in the past decade:

 

KC: 2-14 in 2012, Reid went 31-17 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances

HOU: 2-14 in 2013, O'Brien 27-21 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances

LAC:  5-11 in 2016, Lynn goes 21-11 first 2 seasons with 1 playoff appearance (Reached conference championship in 2nd season)

PHI: 7-9 in 2015, Pederson goes 29-19 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (1 SB win)

MIN: 5-10-1 in 2013, Zimmer goes 26-22 first 3 seasons with 1 playoff appearance

LAR: 4-12 in 2016, McVay goes 24-8 first 2 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (Reached SB in 2nd season)

SEA: 5-11 in 2009, Carroll goes 25-23 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances (on SB in 4th season)

 

Every one of those franchises showed something by the end of year 3.  Because in this league, if you've not won by that point, typically it's time to start over.   

 

You don't need 4 off-seasons to rebuild a team, nor should anyone delay expectations that far. 

There things about this:

 

1.  You make a good point with this list. 

 

2.  Some of those weren't classic rebuilds. Some of those teams were good, 8-10 win teams that had a bad season or two, changed coaches and won. 

 

3.  Whatever, McD's 4th season is likely the season that he and Beane have targeted as the beginning of a multiple season playoff run.  2019 would be nice, but I think 2020 is the target. 

[BillsVet]

Didn't Pat Mahomes just win the NFL MVP in his 2nd year and 1st as a starter? Or, Mitch Trubisky QBing a Chicago team to 12-4 in his second season?

 

How about Deshaun Watson in his second season with Houston? Perhaps Jared Goff in year 3 getting to the SB? Carson Wentz?  Russell Wilson 5 years ago?  

 

The question isn't when the Bills will make a run...it's why they likely aren't in position to do so in year 3 of a rebuild when so many other franchises are or have been.  

 

Every year players get older, contracts are closer to finishing, your players hit UFA, players get injured, etc..  You can always find a reason for why they're not doing well.

 

Studying other successful franchises illustrates that expectations shouldn't be as low as some are setting them. 

[BillsVet]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

There things about this:

 

1.  You make a good point with this list. 

 

2.  Some of those weren't classic rebuilds. Some of those teams were good, 8-10 win teams that had a bad season or two, changed coaches and won. 

 

3.  Whatever, McD's 4th season is likely the season that he and Beane have targeted as the beginning of a multiple season playoff run.  2019 would be nice, but I think 2020 is the target. 

 

1. Yes, it is a good point.

 

2. Which ones? LAC? They still went from 5-11, changed their HC, and managed to be in the AFC title game in 2 years. Rivers hadn't done anything since Schottenheimer, but for the first time in a decade now he is. Every one of those teams were so bad they needed a new HC and 4 had new GMs.   

 

3. That's too late. Rebuilding, as evidenced by these 7 examples, doesn't need to take 4 years.  And it's not like McDermott entered OBD without any talent. He had plenty, some of which they allowed to hit UFA (Gilmore, Woods, Z. Brown) some traded away (Watkins, Darby, Glenn) some that retired (Incognito, Wood, K. Williams) and some still there (McCoy, Hughes, Alexander) 

 

As has been noted by other solid posters, McBeane shot themselves in the foot trying to do a complete renovation when something less intrusive would have worked.    

 

But let's look at it from another standpoint. Does anyone honestly think McCoach or Beane told previous UFAs signed or will tell prospective ones this off-season that their plan means not competing for a title until 2020?  How do you think that'd go over?   Think an in-demand UFA would want to hear that?  

 

This 2020 thing is fans being afraid to raise the bar, you know, like most teams' fans do. 

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by BillsVet

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

My post says the team will be ready to make a run in years 3-5 of Allen's rookie contract.  I do expect Allen to be much improved this year just like he was improved after he returned from injury. I still don't think the roster will be in a position to start making deep playoff runs this year.  We should definitely add some talent this off season, but I don't know if it will be enough to truly contend for a Super Bowl this year. Still too soon for that I think.   I do think a Wild Card is definitely possible this year and I would be a bit disappointed if we don't make the post season. 

 

I think this season McBeane will fill in most of the remaining gaps in the roster and our young roster will benefit from one more year of experience.   In 2020 we go into free agency looking for a couple of key veteran pieces that we need to make us real contenders, and then it's game on.

 

Of course, this is just my opinion and it is based solely upon speculation, conjecture, and spilling the entrails of a chicken and reading the portents.

 

My rookie mistakes in that was McD and beane. Because there’s no reason it should take that long for a roster to be built but you referenced mistakes by first timers being expected 

[SoTier]

On 2/16/2019 at 2:34 AM, MJS said:

We don't even know what the moves will be. I have a sense that by the end of free agency and the draft that most Bills fans will expect this to be a playoff team and there will be some national buzz.

 

BUT I also suspect that Josh Allen is going to still have some struggles. People seem to have forgotten that he still has a long way to go. He's not a franchise QB yet, although I suspect he will be one day.

 

At least most posters on TSW will convince themselves that the Bills are a playoff team ... and will likely be disappointed.  Plain and simple, the entire offense needs to be rebuilt for Allen to have any real chance of becoming a good QB, and the defense could use significant upgrades at several positions.  At least the Bills appear to have finally gotten around to hiring an experienced QB coach for Allen.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

1. Yes, it is a good point.

 

2. Which ones? LAC? They still went from 5-11, changed their HC, and managed to be in the AFC title game in 2 years. Rivers hadn't done anything since Schottenheimer, but for the first time in a decade now he is. Every one of those teams were so bad they needed a new HC and 4 had new GMs.   

 

3. That's too late. Rebuilding, as evidenced by these 7 examples, doesn't need to take 4 years.  And it's not like McDermott entered OBD without any talent. He had plenty, some of which they allowed to hit UFA (Gilmore, Woods, Z. Brown) some traded away (Watkins, Darby, Glenn) some that retired (Incognito, Wood, K. Williams) and some still there (McCoy, Hughes, Alexander) 

 

As has been noted by other solid posters, McBeane shot themselves in the foot trying to do a complete renovation when something less intrusive would have worked.    

 

But let's look at it from another standpoint. Does anyone honestly think McCoach or Beane told previous UFAs signed or will tell prospective ones this off-season that their plan means not competing for a title until 2020?  How do you think that'd go over?   Think an in-demand UFA would want to hear that?  

 

This 2020 thing is fans being afraid to raise the bar, you know, like most teams' fans do. 

 

1.  I'[m glad you agree.

 

2.  I'm not going to go back and look (I looked yesterday), but Seattle for one had several strong seasons, two bad ones and Carroll came in.  Chargers WEREN'T one, except they had their QB in place.   I think the Vikings had a solid core in place and had had a few good seasons followed by one or two bad ones.  Kansas City has been an odd franchise for about 10 years - they've always had a good collection of players, some good years followed by one or two bad ones followed by good ones.  Point being, I don't think all of these teams you listed were actually full-blown rebuilds, which is what the Bills are doing.  But I'm not really arguing the point, because even if your list has a few teams that aren't really good examples, it has several teams that ARE.

 

3.   But this is the important point that you're missing.   I mean, you may be right, and the if you aren't succeeding by the end of year three, you're failing as a coach.   However, I don't think McBeane would agree with you, I don't think they agreed with you when they started this job, and I think the Pegulas agree with them, not you.   

 

I haven't said it before, but here's why I think McBeane are doing something different and why your examples aren't pertinent:  There is something that goes along with your  "win in three years or you're done" approach.  It's sort of the typical NFL approach.  What goes along with the typical approach is that you're on a roller coaster - be good for a few years, fall, rebuild, be good, etc.   McBeane have said from the beginning (without naming them) that they want to be like the Patriots.   They want to build something that is good year after year after year.   The Steelers are the other example.   They want to be in the mix every year, they want to be over .500 every year.   They're argument is that there is a right way to build that kind of program, and the right way is piece by piece, building the right foundation first and then growing from there. 

 

Now, as usual, I'm not saying this is right or wrong.   Your view of this could very well be right and it IS the NFL norm.   What I'm saying is that this is what McBeane are doing, and it is the program that, at least for now, the Pegulas have bought.   

 

We've seen what that means.   The foundation is the most important thing - the team, the entire organization - has to run on the right principles.  Those are commitment to one another, intense competitive drive, honesty, continuous improvement.  If you don't operate on those principles, you have to go.  If you do, you can stay so long as you continue to improve and no one comes along with same values who also is better at doing what you're supposed to do.   It means mistakes are okay, so long as you learn from them, don't make that mistake again, and get better at your job.   So, for example, McD screwing up the Peterman situation is okay - he's a rookie coach, he's learning, etc. and so long as he internalizes the right lessons from the mistake, a Peterman screw up doesn't mean he gets fired. 

 

In order to run a system like that, the first step is to evaluate what you have, throw out the people who don't fit, start teaching the ones who do fit how to behave in the system.   That process took place in years one and two.   All of the hold overs who don't fit are now gone.

 

The thing about a system like this is that it is NOT immediately concerned about bringing in talent.   It's concerned about bringing in people who work in the system.   You can see that in the fact that the Bills did NOT go out and acquire free agent talent like Woods and Watkins - they let that talent go.  Why?   Because, as Beane as said, talent is secondary to the right values.   So rebuilding this way necessarily is slower, because ON THE FIELD you don't get immediate results.  You don't have a Watkins or a Woods to make plays for you.   So the Rams turn around fast and the Bills don't, because talent on the field has immediate impacts.   

 

What McBeane are trying to do is build an environment where everyone operates on the values they think are important.   When they have that environment, each new player who comes in learns to behave the same way more easily, because everyone in the building is doing it.   I think McBeane would tell you that once they have that culture built, a guy who comes in with talent like Watkins will have a completely different career, because the first things he learns when he comes in are the team values.  He sees them all over the place.  

 

As someone once said, it's a process.  They have a process, everyone in the building, including the owners, understand and buy into the process.  If McBeane are correct in what they're doing the Bills may take longer than others to get good, but they will STAY good longer.   If they're wrong, they'll be gone.  But the owners understand that this process takes longer to find out if they're right or wrong than the "flip the talent and see what happens" approach. 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Shaw66

[eball]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

3. That's too late. Rebuilding, as evidenced by these 7 examples, doesn't need to take 4 years.  And it's not like McDermott entered OBD without any talent. He had plenty, some of which they allowed to hit UFA (Gilmore, Woods, Z. Brown) some traded away (Watkins, Darby, Glenn) some that retired (Incognito, Wood, K. Williams) and some still there (McCoy, Hughes, Alexander) 

 

As has been noted by other solid posters, McBeane shot themselves in the foot trying to do a complete renovation when something less intrusive would have worked.    

 

But let's look at it from another standpoint. Does anyone honestly think McCoach or Beane told previous UFAs signed or will tell prospective ones this off-season that their plan means not competing for a title until 2020?  How do you think that'd go over?   Think an in-demand UFA would want to hear that?  

 

This 2020 thing is fans being afraid to raise the bar, you know, like most teams' fans do. 

 

 

Who, precisely, is "afraid to raise the bar?"  Have McD or Beane announced anything publicly about their "intent to compete in 2020" as you keep repeating over and over?  Of course they haven't.  You're making it up.

 

I don't know a single fan who isn't expecting a significant step forward in 2019, which would not put the Bills "behind" any rebuilding efforts of the past.

 

Truthfully, I don't even know the purpose of you arguing this point because nobody officially associated with the Buffalo Bills has said or even implied they don't intend to compete until 2020.  You're criticizing them for something they haven't done.

 

I mean, criticize some of their personnel/coaching decisions all you like -- there are certainly a number to choose from -- but I guarantee you McD and Beane didn't tell the Pegulas they wouldn't be ready to compete until 2020.  They expect a big step this year (as they should).

[BillsVet]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 As someone once said, it's a process.  They have a process, everyone in the building, including the owners, understand and buy into the process.  If McBeane are correct in what they're doing the Bills may take longer than others to get good, but they will STAY good longer.   If they're wrong, they'll be gone.  But the owners understand that this process takes longer to find out if they're right or wrong than the "flip the talent and see what happens" approach. 

 

I'm not going to change your mind no matter how much evidence is provided and that's cool. Still, you're quibbling about the nature of those other rebuilds because the Bills' so far isn't nearly as fast as those were.  I

 

The Pegula's typically give their people all the resources they ask for, but aren't going to stand by if things don't go well. Any owner worth their salt is going to question why their team isn't winning when other teams can do it after starting over.

 

The plan has been flawed from the start and I sense a lot of fans are coming to terms with this, hence the 2020 narrative being floated. 

[BillsVet]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

Who, precisely, is "afraid to raise the bar?"  Have McD or Beane announced anything publicly about their "intent to compete in 2020" as you keep repeating over and over?  Of course they haven't.  You're making it up.

 

I don't know a single fan who isn't expecting a significant step forward in 2019, which would not put the Bills "behind" any rebuilding efforts of the past.

 

Truthfully, I don't even know the purpose of you arguing this point because nobody officially associated with the Buffalo Bills has said or even implied they don't intend to compete until 2020.  You're criticizing them for something they haven't done.

 

I mean, criticize some of their personnel/coaching decisions all you like -- there are certainly a number to choose from -- but I guarantee you McD and Beane didn't tell the Pegulas they wouldn't be ready to compete until 2020.  They expect a big step this year (as they should).

 

Someone started a thread about Beane's 2019 moves being to set them up to compete in 2020. Is that not what the thread says? Is that not what the debate is centered around?

 

This is all about some fans recognizing that despite all that 2019 cap room and their picks, it's going to be awfully tough to build a good enough offense that can score.  And, the team ain't gonna come out and say what the plan is - they never have nor do I expect it.

 

This team, no matter what they do in UFA, isn't ready to compete for a title when so many other teams have done just that by year 3. They've slow-walked their way to rebuild and now that's sinking in for some.   

[Ramza86]

As improved as the bills were to finish the year....

 

I dont expect this team to do ANYTHING relating to playoff contention until we have a line that can BLOCK. Especially run block. 

 

A QB leading the team in rushing is a joke.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I'm not going to change your mind no matter how much evidence is provided and that's cool. Still, you're quibbling about the nature of those other rebuilds because the Bills' so far isn't nearly as fast as those were.  I

 

The Pegula's typically give their people all the resources they ask for, but aren't going to stand by if things don't go well. Any owner worth their salt is going to question why their team isn't winning when other teams can do it after starting over.

 

The plan has been flawed from the start and I sense a lot of fans are coming to terms with this, hence the 2020 narrative being floated. 

It's not my mind that has to be changed.   I'm not a football coach, so I don't know how to build and rebuild a football team.   

 

I'm telling you what I think four people - McBeane and the Pegulas, are thinking.   I believe that's what they're thinking because that's what they're saying about what they're doing.  

 

You've now gotten to the real point.  You think their plan is flawed.   That's fine.  As I'e said, you've given some good examples of recent NFL rebuilds and shown that those rebuilds achieved results more quickly than the Bills have.  I get that, and as I've said, you may very well be correct - it may be that those examples are the only way to build successfully and the fab four in Buffalo don't know what they're doing.  

 

If I had a high degree of confidence that they were wrong, I'd be joining your chorus.   However, I've spent a lot of my football time in the past few years watching and thinking (and writing) about what Belichick does, and it looks to me like Belichick does what I described above.  He built a foundation, he keeps adding to the foundation.   Having the foundation, the work ethic, the competitiveness, the intense competitive desire, built into the locker room has allowed Belichick to sustain his team's level of excellence.  Given that McBeane appear to be attempting to build what Belichick has, I can't get upset that they didn't get it done in two years or that they may not have it done in three years.  

[eball]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Someone started a thread about Beane's 2019 moves being to set them up to compete in 2020. Is that not what the thread says? Is that not what the debate is centered around?

 

This is all about some fans recognizing that despite all that 2019 cap room and their picks, it's going to be awfully tough to build a good enough offense that can score.  And, the team ain't gonna come out and say what the plan is - they never have nor do I expect it.

 

This team, no matter what they do in UFA, isn't ready to compete for a title when so many other teams have done just that by year 3. They've slow-walked their way to rebuild and now that's sinking in for some.   

 

LOL -- the guy who started the thread said too many people have high expectations for 2019!

 

Regardless, you're making a ton of assumptions.  The Bills offense over their last seven games of 2018 was a completely different animal than the one that started the season.  Why is everyone ignoring that?  If they improve the OL (how could they not?) and pick up a TE and WR in the draft what is stopping them from having a very adequate offense?

[teef]

it's still strange to me that some people's biggest concern is whether the rebuild, (or whatever you want to call it) will take 3 vs 4 years, as opposed to whether or not the rebuild will actually work.  

[eball]

6 minutes ago, teef said:

it's still strange to me that some people's biggest concern is whether the rebuild, (or whatever you want to call it) will take 3 vs 4 years, as opposed to whether or not the rebuild will actually work.  

 

Good point.  It's almost as if there's an agenda... 

 

[Mango]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's not my mind that has to be changed.   I'm not a football coach, so I don't know how to build and rebuild a football team.   

 

I'm telling you what I think four people - McBeane and the Pegulas, are thinking.   I believe that's what they're thinking because that's what they're saying about what they're doing.  

 

You've now gotten to the real point.  You think their plan is flawed.   That's fine.  As I'e said, you've given some good examples of recent NFL rebuilds and shown that those rebuilds achieved results more quickly than the Bills have.  I get that, and as I've said, you may very well be correct - it may be that those examples are the only way to build successfully and the fab four in Buffalo don't know what they're doing.  

 

If I had a high degree of confidence that they were wrong, I'd be joining your chorus.   However, I've spent a lot of my football time in the past few years watching and thinking (and writing) about what Belichick does, and it looks to me like Belichick does what I described above.  He built a foundation, he keeps adding to the foundation.   Having the foundation, the work ethic, the competitiveness, the intense competitive desire, built into the locker room has allowed Belichick to sustain his team's level of excellence.  Given that McBeane appear to be attempting to build what Belichick has, I can't get upset that they didn't get it done in two years or that they may not have it done in three years.  

 

Do you think McDermott can outscheme every other coach on both sides of the ball? 

 

Because thats how Belichick keeps winning rings with his “foundation” based philosophy. Which is driven by the idea that EVERYBODY in the building will out-scheme, out-physical, out-film study, out-prepare every other team in the league. 

 

If you can’t out-scheme everybody, then you have to be more talented more often than not in professional sports. I don’t trust McDermott to out-scheme anybody. You rarely if ever out culture opponents regularly for wins (except in extreme scenarios like the Browns of old). Most of all, I don’t trust Beane for overall talent evaluation. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Do you think McDermott can outscheme every other coach on both sides of the ball? 

 

Because thats how Belichick keeps winning rings with his “foundation” based philosophy. Which is driven by the idea that EVERYBODY in the building will out-scheme, out-physical, out-film study, out-prepare every other team in the league. 

 

If you can’t out-scheme everybody, then you have to be more talented more often than not in professional sports. I don’t trust McDermott to out-scheme anybody. You rarely if ever out culture opponents regularly for wins (except in extreme scenarios like the Browns of old). Most of all, I don’t trust Beane for overall talent evaluation. 

I think that is EXACTLY the question.  I have a lot of confidence that he can build an organization. And I'm not worried about talent evaluation. He and Beane will do that well enough.  

 

I think football strategy and tactics involves some creativity that a coach either has or doesn't. I simply don't know if he has what it takes in that category.  He can hire good coordinators, I suppose.  The reality is that if McDermott builds the organization and doesn't have the strategic ability, the process will require Beane to replace McDermott.  

 

But you don't have to out scheme every other coach. When you get to the playoffs all teams have strengths and weaknesses.  And the teams are generally pretty evenly matched.  And no one is going to outscheme Belichick. 

 

Bottom  line for me is that I think McDermott's process can get the Bills to the playoffs.  We will see what happens when they get there.  )