AlphaMock V1 - 4 round mock (pre combine)

[Wayne Cubed]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they need a 1. I don't think Robert Foster is a #1. I think he is too limited. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Yea I have the Bills as needing a 1 and 2, I think Foster is a 3 as this point. McKenzie is the 4 and because he's on a cheap contract Jones is the 5. I'd like to see them try to trade for a 1 or hope one ends up on the cut block. The 2 could come from the draft as at this point I don't see a 1 in the draft.

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they need a 1. I don't think Robert Foster is a #1. I think he is too limited. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Hmm. I am not sure I agree on that at all. I still think big outside targets are needed. Whether they are as big of a need in the offense Daboll wants to run is a fair question. But the Eagles won last year with Jeffrey playing a big role, the Saints have Michael Thomas. The Patriots have rarely gone in for big outside guys it is true and this year the Rams haven't. But I am not convinced that is the future of the NFL.

I think Samuel can be a Smith-Schuster. The question is whether or not he needs an Antonio Brown to be as effective because you are probably correct about Foster. I guess I have higher hopes for him than you, but still I don't see where that #1 is coming from in the draft.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Yea I have the Bills as needing a 1 and 2, I think Foster is a 3 as this point. McKenzie is the 4 and because he's on a cheap contract Jones is the 5. I'd like to see them try to trade for a 1 or hope one ends up on the cut block. The 2 could come from the draft as at this point I don't see a 1 in the draft.

 

Pretty much where I am Wayne.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I think Samuel can be a Smith-Schuster. The question is whether or not he needs an Antonio Brown to be as effective because you are probably correct about Foster. I guess I have higher hopes for him than you, but still I don't see where that #1 is coming from in the draft.

 

I think the Bills are going to have to trade or hope one is a cap casualty or the team is going in a new direction. I think the Bills need a 1 and 2 and I don't see a 1 in the draft but see a lot of possibly good 2s.

[C.Biscuit97]

40 minutes ago, wppete said:

 

Hakeem Butler reminds me of a taller AJ Green. Smooth route runner and incredible catch radius. Goes up and gets the ball at 6’6. Strong hands.

 

 

Yeah, I only saw a few of their guys but I was super impressed by him.  Plus, he knows that Pam from the office sucks, so that’s a plus!

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think Samuel can be a Smith-Schuster. The question is whether or not he needs an Antonio Brown to be as effective because you are probably correct about Foster. I guess I have higher hopes for him than you, but still I don't see where that #1 is coming from in the draft.

 

I don't think he can be Smith-Schuster. Not sure he is as physical as Smith-Schuster and don't know that he beats the press as well as him. That short area quickness and change of direction that I think sets Samuel apart isn't going to get him as much separation on the outside. Smith-Schuster isn't what I would class as a burner by any means but he is a long strider and gets where he needs to on his routes efficiently as a result. I can see a bit more of an ex Steeler - Emmanuel Sanders in him. If he gets to that standard he will have had an excellent career. But in some ways he reminds me of Sanders.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, P51 said:

 

The Cardinals last year played musical chairs and were the last man out. They wanted Allen, but settled for Rosen, Gruden wanted more picks and was asking to move down, got his picks but took less value to do so. Arizona got the last pick of the litter and paid less to do so, knowing Gruden was looking to stack his roster and they took advantage. 

Last year, there were 4 QBs everyone was talking about being 1st rd QBs as well as Lamar.  This year, you have haskins, a midget and meh.  Anyone trading up with us will be settling for meh

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Last year, there were 4 QBs everyone was talking about being 1st rd QBs as well as Lamar.  This year, you have haskins, a midget and meh.  Anyone trading up with us will be settling for meh

 

Yea and hence I just can't see it. Unless the midget is not a midget and survives to #9 I just can't see a trade up that makes sense. Seriously trading up into the top 10 to select Drew Lock.... to me that is madness. I really think it is - and I quite like Drew Lock!

[Albany,n.y.]

7 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Why not?  Bills gave up pick 12 in Rd 1 and 2 2nd Rd picks(53 and 56) last year to move up to 7.  Did get a late 7th (255) back too.  

Because there is no QB prospect in this year's draft anywhere near as highly rated by the NFL scouts as Josh was in last year's draft, especially by pick 9 where the top QB or 2 will already be gone.   Not only was Allen rated high by NFL scouts, but NFL draft "experts" like Dave Te Thomas and Mel Kiper had Allen as the best QB in a loaded draft class.  The Bills only gave up that much for Allen because they were sold on him, doing what virtually nobody "scouting" him on the internet did-talked with him for hours getting to know his intense competitive nature & willingness to work hard & learn. 

If the Redskins are sold on a QB they'll be looking to move up to the top 5 ahead of NYG & Jacksonville, not giving up a lot to get the QB crumbs left at 9.  I believe if the Redskins are going to go all in on a QB, they'll be willing to throw in next year's #1 to get into that top 5.  Otherwise, as I believe, they'll look for a 1 year stopgap who can be a game manager like Tyrod Tylor and take a wait & see attitude on Smith's return until they know more about his long term prognosis.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I believe if the Redskins are going to go all in on a QB, they'll be willing to throw in next year's #1 to get into that top 5.  Otherwise, as I believe, they'll look for a 1 year stopgap who can be a game manager like Tyrod Tylor and take a wait & see attitude on Smith's return until they know more about his long term prognosis.  

 

I think you are right. And that is why it needs to not be a "1 man QB class" and at least be a "2 man class" with Murray in the mix to make the Redskins going to #9 a possibility.

[mannc]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I get what you are saying, but according to the "value chart" we way over paid too last year.  Washington NEEDS to get ahead of two likely teams picking between 10 and 14 that look like they may go QB.  And that is Denver at 10 and Miami at 13.  Just like the Bills NEEDED to get ahead of Arizona last year if we wanted Josh Allen and "over paid" according to the draft chart.  

 

So I really do think its reasonable that we could get both a 2nd and a 3rd out of Washington.  If someone like Denver or Miami wants to move up to our spot to block the others out, maybe we dont get the extra 3rd.  But Washington is trading up 6 spots for a QB and needs to get in front of 2 other teams who could very well also go QB.  That makes our spot a premium price, and for that, paying a couple hundred more points than the draft value chart is not only reasonable, but IMO likely.  

 

Furthermore, Washington owes Alex Smith a lot of money for 3 more years, they really need to look at the draft for a QB because they aren't going to want to pay for one of the better FA options this year while also paying Smith.  

 

Now if there was no real threat of someone taking a QB between us and them, we would have less leverage and I would think a 2nd is about right.  We also have 10 draft picks, we dont HAVE to trade down, so Washington is going to need to entice us IMO and Beane is also a trading witch.  Same guy who got Cleveland to give us the first pick in the 3rd round for a QB despite these facts:

 

- Cleveland was taking QB in the first 4 picks.

- Buffalo was going to draft a QB and likely cut Tyrod.  

- Most of the posters on this board thought he wouldnt fetch anything better than a 6th round pick or worse.  

 

So I think the starts have aligned for us in a perfect trade down scenario with Washington to get above average value.

I also don't believe Washington would give up a second and a third to move up to 9.  The Skins only have 5 draft picks this year and I can't see them making a trade that leaves them with only three, where two of those three are day 3 picks.  The two seconds Buffalo gave up to move to 7 last year were at the bottom of round 2 and I doubt there will be a Josh Allen-like prospect available at 9 this year.  

 

If the Skins want to move up to 9, and their 2d rounder isn't enough to make it happen, then I think the Bills would have to throw in one of their fourths in order for the Skins to give up their 3d rounder as well.  It all depends on how desperate the Skins are, but I have a feeling there will be a lot of teams looking to trade back this year, including the Jets, and I don't foresee a bidding war for the 9th pick.  

 

That being said, I really like your picks and I can only hope that Beane is smart enough to use our first three picks on offensive players. 

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, I only saw a few of their guys but I was super impressed by him.  Plus, he knows that Pam from the office sucks, so that’s a plus!

What?

[Misterbluesky]

18 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Hockenson might be gone by then. 

 

Nice deep dive on the ODU kid. 

 

Huge yes to Harry ??????

If I'm going TE in the first,he better be a stud of a blocker,not only pass catcher.

[BillsMafia13]

9 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

My only comment is I hear all this love for drafting TE's high in the draft .. and maybe that's years of the Gronk effect ... but I don't really see "game changers" at that position lately in the draft .. I just think we can wait till rounds 3-5 to address that position

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

 

For example the link above shows all the TE's drafted in the last few years .. George Kittle at SF was a 5th rounder and in my opinion he's the best of the bunch going back to 2015 ..my point is .. if we draft a stud .. they may bolt after their rookie contract ... but there aren't a lot of studs coming off their rookie pick .. hence we looking at say a Maxx Williams in FA.  But I don't really think OJ Howard, aforementoined Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gisecki, Dallas Goedert, Austin Saferian Jenkins .. all early picks have been game changes ... maybe Engram . .maybe Njoku ... maybe Hunter Henry .. but look at the carnage for those few nuggets.  Stick with OL early please.

Astute analysis, very astute  

[thunderingsquid]

Thank you Alphadawg7, this is my ideal scenario and I hope we are on the phone to DC frequently over the next few months.  

[thunderingsquid]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

THIRD ROUND:

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Oshane Ximines - EDGE, Old Dominion

 

He puts on 10 lbs and you got Bruces height/weight.   

 

Just sayin.   ODU is no Va Tech but it would be nice to give Hughes and Lawson a rest once in a while.   

[BillsMafia13]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, I only saw a few of their guys but I was super impressed by him.  Plus, he knows that Pam from the office sucks, so that’s a plus!

Not sure what you're referencing here but I pick up what you're putting down

[formerlyofCtown]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is my mock right now, before the combine, post Senior Bowl.  Let me know what ya think   I will try and update a V2 after the combine, and then a final V3 just before the draft.  I am only mocking the Bills...and only to round 4 as everything from that point on is even more impossible to predict.

 

Current picks:  10 total.  1, 2, 3, 4, 4 (KC), 5 (OAK), 5, 6, 7, 7 (Car)

 

I have 2 first round trades involving the Bills...one trade down, then one trade up.  I think we are likely going to be trading down with Redskins picking up 2 additional picks.  Hard to see Beane drafting 12 players (our current 10, plus the 2 he picks up in the trade down) so I think he will package some of the picks to get another top end prospect in round 1 or 2.   

 

FIRST ROUND: (2 PICKS via Trade)

Trade down with Redskins.  Bills receive Redskins 15th pick, 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick

#15 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  N'Keal Harry - WR, Arizona State

 

SECOND TRADE ALERT:  Bills trade back into the first round.

Bills trade up to 27 with Oak (via Chicago):  Bills send their own 2nd round pick and the 3rd round pick the received from Washington to Oak.  Oak looking at a massive rebuild adds another quality pick in a small trade down.   

#27 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  T.J. Hockenson - TE, IOWA

 

SECOND ROUND:

Pick via Redskins trade:

BILLS DRAFT:  Cody Ford - OT/G, Oklahoma 

NOTE:  I previously had Dalton Risner here, however he seems to be rising into potentially the first round.  I want to mock Risner, but I think he goes early and that causes Ford to slide a further down to us.  

 

THIRD ROUND:

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Oshane Ximines - EDGE, Old Dominion

 

FOURTH ROUND: (2 PICKS)

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Olisaemeka Udoh - OT, ELON

 

Pick via KC 

BILLS DRAFT:  Darrell Henderson - RB, Memphis

 

BELOW:  Highlight reels of the NON Offensive Line prospects as they dont really have good reels to view being OL and one being a small school.

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty good you put a lot of workintoit.  The trade is at the eight value.

I just dont feel Harry will be BPA at 15, to many other players there.  This would be a need pick although not really a reach.

[thunderingsquid]

19 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.

The Skins are not any team.  Don't forget, they are the NFC's perennial dumpster fire.  And are desperate for a QB.  

[Alphadawg7]

40 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Between Samuel, Jones, and Foster I think they could be a good group. I'm expecting both Jones and Foster to progress next year and if Foster starts breaking into that WR1 role having two underneath/slot posession type guys in Samuel and Jones who can get open reliably would be imo best case scenario for the offense, considering what the draft class at wideout looks like to me anyway.

 

I am still skeptical that Jones is a lock to be on the roster week 1 next year.  For me, it depends on how many WRs they bring in via FA, Draft or possibly via trade.  If we add only one more this offseason, then sure, I can buy the fact that he is most likely going to be on the roster week 1 and likely play the slot role.

 

However, if we add 2 or 3 relevant WRs between now and the Draft, then I think Jones roster spot is in a shaky position and very much on the hot seat to be here week 1 next year.  There just isnt anything Zay excels at so far.  He isnt getting separation on his routes consistently, he is frequently getting man handled by physical corners, he doesn't have elite speed, he doesn't have consistent hands, and he isnt good at making contested catches.   

 

Foster already surpassed Zay on the depth chart.  Then if you we add a relevant WR in FA (like Tate, Humphries, Williams, Funches, etc) Zay is suddenly likely 3rd on the depth chart and competing for that spot with newly signed Duke Williams (who could also contend to start once camp opens).  Now add in a rookie we take high in the draft like Harry, Deebo, Butler, Brown, etc and suddenly Zay is fighting to even get on the field.  

 

If our WR room looks like this:

Relevant FA WR, Foster, Rookie early in draft, Zay and Duke:   Then Zay's role on this team to me is in jeopardy.  If they add even one more additional relevant WR to that mix, then that would tell me Zay would most likely be on another roster come Week 1.  

 

Zay should be watching Free Agency and the draft VERY closely to see both who we add and how many we add.  I was high on Zay when we drafted to him, so hope he proves me wrong. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea and hence I just can't see it. Unless the midget is not a midget and survives to #9 I just can't see a trade up that makes sense. Seriously trading up into the top 10 to select Drew Lock.... to me that is madness. I really think it is - and I quite like Drew Lock!

 

Teams make madness like moves though for QB's, especially poorly run organizations.  Washington has a history of poor and aggressive decisions and I do not think they are run well.  So I do believe right now that they could move up, and even over pay to do so to get ahead of Denver and Miami.  

 

But hey, its early in the draft process, we won't really start getting a feel for how QB's will start shaping up in terms of where they may go until after Free Agency reveals where the vets will land and also how these QB's fare in the combine.  If the QB's fizzle, there certainly won't be much of a trade up market for them.  

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, BillsMafia13 said:

Not sure what you're referencing here but I pick up what you're putting down

 

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

What?

https://mobile.twitter.com/410Keem/status/1089194341363527681

[billsredneck1]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Between Samuel, Jones, and Foster I think they could be a good group. I'm expecting both Jones and Foster to progress next year and if Foster starts breaking into that WR1 role having two underneath/slot posession type guys in Samuel and Jones who can get open reliably would be imo best case scenario for the offense, considering what the draft class at wideout looks like to me anyway.

i hope we sign d. thompson to give us another outside speed opposite foster...if we go this route.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, billsredneck1 said:

i hope we sign d. thompson to give us another outside speed opposite foster...if we go this route.

Thompson is not a good nfl receiver.

[billsredneck1]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thompson is not a good nfl receiver.

he is fine for that  one to two deep targets a game. while i see mcbeane bringing in a fa wr...possibly, i think they will want to draft for the future. there's not much better at that caliber in fa and he knows the system. what do you think they should do at wr?

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

he is fine for that  one to two deep targets a game. while i see mcbeane bringing in a fa wr...possibly, i think they will want to draft for the future. there's not much better at that caliber in fa and he knows the system. what do you think they should do at wr?

There’s a reason he never lasts on a team more than a year.  I think we get too sentimental with players.  If he wasn’t a former Bill, we won’t even know him.

[billsredneck1]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

There’s a reason he never lasts on a team more than a year.  I think we get too sentimental with players.  If he wasn’t a former Bill, we won’t even know him.

so....what's your plan? who do you see in free agency who deserves more than what we give thompson? ...and who do you see us getting in the draft?

[P51]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

Last year, there were 4 QBs everyone was talking about being 1st rd QBs as well as Lamar.  This year, you have haskins, a midget and meh.  Anyone trading up with us will be settling for meh

 

I remember last year well and agree that class was viewed very favorably in general and IMO blows this years class out of the water. So far this year there seem to be 3 QB's being consistently talked about in the 1st round (if the little person you refer too is Murray and Meh is Lock) and not as highly regarded as last years class, 4 if one considers Jones. What they are trading up for is a QB, the Chiefs paid a premium to move up from 27 to 10, Houston as well in moving up from 25 to 12 and settling for Watson in the 2017 draft and that class had many questions leading up to the draft, with the Texans getting the "meh" prospect according to some. 

 

If teams (Washington in this situation) value a QB enough to move up for one, they are more likely than not, going to pay a premium, that seems to be consistently the rule, not the exception, thats my point in all of my comments about the Bills will be "Lucky" type of posts  to get a 2nd round pick to move down to 15... This regime has paid and charged a premium to move up and down for QB's, its not likely they are going to cut a team a break because because Lock is a "meh" prospect according to Washington themselves, NewEra, P51, Buffalo themselves or anyone. If they want to move ahead of Denver to get Lock for instance, Washington I believe will have to pay to do so, just the same as Houston, KC, Buffalo, NYJ, Chicago have done recently to move ahead of whomever.

 

What the premium is? I dont know it could just be the 46th pick but I highly doubt they'll "settle" for less. I do know how Buffalo has operated in the last 2 drafts, and I dont see them moving down at a discount or even trade value for a QB, and thats not saying that they couldn't. If they value 6 players the same at 9 knowing Washington is taking a QB at 9 and they'll land 1/6 at 15 and want the extra pick(s) like Oakland did last year, then they could take the fair or reduced value. I just see the chances of that being slim given their recent history. 

[Iamkrgr]

Losing patience with Jones development is understandable. At 24 years old to start next season i think he's still too young to throw overboard. He'll get every chance at training camp to make the team. I think he showed some improvement this season. With more consistent QB play and more familiarity with Allen should go a long way. It would be some kinda of Billsy move to let him leave and flourish as a solid WR for another team.

 

650 yards 7 TD from a 2nd year player drafted in the 2nd round isn't anything to sneeze at anyway. Give him another season with Allen and we'll see. He's cheap anyway. 

 

As for this draft i'm so intrigued by DK Metcalf. He is the Josh Allen(QB) and Tremaine Edmunds of this draft where he likely has the highest upside and raw ability but a long way to reach it. If Beane goes this route i won't be able to blame him even if Metcalf busts. In this business a GM has limited time to get it right. Swing for the fences type pick right here. Picking up a Christian Wilkins at 9 is probably the "safer" play. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, P51 said:

 

I remember last year well and agree that class was viewed very favorably in general and IMO blows this years class out of the water. So far this year there seem to be 3 QB's being consistently talked about in the 1st round (if the little person you refer too is Murray and Meh is Lock) and not as highly regarded as last years class, 4 if one considers Jones. What they are trading up for is a QB, the Chiefs paid a premium to move up from 27 to 10, Houston as well in moving up from 25 to 12 and settling for Watson in the 2017 draft and that class had many questions leading up to the draft, with the Texans getting the "meh" prospect according to some. 

 

If teams (Washington in this situation) value a QB enough to move up for one, they are more likely than not, going to pay a premium, that seems to be consistently the rule, not the exception, thats my point in all of my comments about the Bills will be "Lucky" type of posts  to get a 2nd round pick to move down to 15... This regime has paid and charged a premium to move up and down for QB's, its not likely they are going to cut a team a break because because Lock is a "meh" prospect according to Washington themselves, NewEra, P51, Buffalo themselves or anyone. If they want to move ahead of Denver to get Lock for instance, Washington I believe will have to pay to do so, just the same as Houston, KC, Buffalo, NYJ, Chicago have done recently to move ahead of whomever.

 

What the premium is? I dont know it could just be the 46th pick but I highly doubt they'll "settle" for less. I do know how Buffalo has operated in the last 2 drafts, and I dont see them moving down at a discount or even trade value for a QB, and thats not saying that they couldn't. If they value 6 players the same at 9 knowing Washington is taking a QB at 9 and they'll land 1/6 at 15 and want the extra pick(s) like Oakland did last year, then they could take the fair or reduced value. I just see the chances of that being slim given their recent history. 

If Washington loves one of these guys, I agree, they’ll do what it takes to get him.  I just don’t understand why anyone would love Lock or Jones that much.  Imo, both will be there when they select without trading up.  Never know about Elway though.  Trades up for Paxton Lynch.  Had to settle for starting simien for 2 years.  Pays keenum 22 mill a year.  Passes on Allen and Rosen.  

[P51]

On 1/30/2019 at 2:12 PM, NewEra said:

If Washington loves one of these guys, I agree, they’ll do what it takes to get him.  I just don’t understand why anyone would love Lock or Jones that much.  Imo, both will be there when they select without trading up.  Never know about Elway though.  Trades up for Paxton Lynch.  Had to settle for starting simien for 2 years.  Pays keenum 22 mill a year.  Passes on Allen and Rosen.  

 

I agree with all of this, I am not big on the Lock or Jones love myself, I havent gotten into them much yet, but my initial evals on them have them as closer to 3rd round guys than 1st... Elways a wild card for sure, I could see him doing about anything, which fits the mold, I thought he lucked into his situation initially as a GM and recently his true ability is starting to show through. 

[John from Riverside]

A couple of things....

 

Cody Ford is going higher then the 2nd I think....and would actually be my trade down scenario guy

 

second..

 

Is it me or does that RB look like Travis Henry?  Loved the way Travis used to run.

[John from Riverside]

I think Kelvin B. gives the fanbase nightmares of what a huge physical can separate pass catching target might look like.

 

In truth...they dont all look like that....the NFL rules make it easy for a big physical guy to push around a DB and catch a ball if they know how to do it right.......we currently do not have one of those on this team.