Startling Star statistic

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

No it didn’t, or not really. They were going to be up against it regardless, and anyway they needed a player for that position. Not many players wanted to come to Buffalo last season, and you’re obligated to overpay a little (it was, along with Oakland, the least popular destiantion among polled players). But last year was a wash anyway because they KNEW they were going to face face a cap problem (of their own creation) and planned accordingly. Not signing Star would not have really have changed the situation. Besides, who else was out there? The years that always mattered for Beane and McDermott were the years beginning in 2019.

 

I disagree. Wasted cap space is wasted cap space.  Moving forward it impacts carryover so wasted cap space is money that won’t be available to add pieces/retain players when the Bills make a run.  Again, this isn’t the end of the world, but it’s poor practice and will catch up to a team that keeps doing it.  Sure, it doesn’t impact the team today, but it certainly could down the road. 

 

To expand on this, I see the Bills approach as this:  They cut a lot of cap and players recently to give themselves room to rebuild the roster.  This offseason they spent a lot of money in free agency to shore up some real problem areas.  I think we were all happy to see things like the OL and WR corps greatly improve.  But they overpaid, sometimes by a lot, for the majority of those players.

 

Now we can argue that the plan was reasonable. We took some pain last year and, with the money saved, overpaid some players to reshape the team.  Fine.  Furthermore we can say that Star was one of those players - he was just brought in a year earlier. Also fine.  But we’ve spent that wad of cash we saved up and moving forward the team has to be more prudent in terms of spending.  If a player isn’t a big difference maker, then we have to build through the draft and find decent FA deals.  If we don’t, things will get out of hand quickly - and that will hinder our ability to make a push for a contender. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

We really shouldn’t be arguing about overpays (or even bringing it up, frankly) for a team that still has a ton of cap space after 8000 FA signings and is currently slated to lead the league in cap space next year with a number closing in on $100 million. I could care less if they make the occasional overpay. It’s the very definition of a red herring given the situation.

 

 

There is the matter of him not being good as well.

 

I guess you missed the part of the discussion where I pointed out that he had never made less than 8 TFL+QB hits in a season but had only 1 last year(if I recall it was in the final game against Miami).

 

The 1 tech in this defense needs to make some plays.   It's not a 2 gap front with a full time nose tackle.   

 

Getting value might not be important to you at this time but getting quality players always matters, dave.   

 

The problem with continually moving the goal posts with regard to the Star Lotulelei acquisition is that it's still a chip-shot kick........it's right in front of your face.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There is the matter of him not being good as well.

 

I guess you missed the part of the discussion where I pointed out that he had never made less than 8 TFL+QB hits in a season but had only 1 last year(if I recall it was in the final game against Miami).

 

The 1 tech in this defense needs to make some plays.   It's not a 2 gap front with a full time nose tackle.   

 

Getting value might not be important to you at this time but getting quality players always matters, dave.   

 

The problem with continually moving the goal posts with regard to the Star Lotulelei acquisition is that it's still a chip-shot kick........it's right in front of your face.

I never disagreed with you on quality; I just don't think the pay is an issue. Also, in a relative context, who was better last year at that position? I honestly don't know, but unless there was someone better as a space plugger, they probably were justified in getting him given that they needed someone to fill the role. FWIW, the defense was actually really good overall last year (#2 in defensive DVOA) despite featuring no superstars. I'm not attributing that to him, but they have a particular system, and he does fill a role in that system. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I disagree. Wasted cap space is wasted cap space.  Moving forward it impacts carryover so wasted cap space is money that won’t be available to add pieces/retain players when the Bills make a run.  Again, this isn’t the end of the world, but it’s poor practice and will catch up to a team that keeps doing it.  Sure, it doesn’t impact the team today, but it certainly could down the road. 

 

To expand on this, I see the Bills approach as this:  They cut a lot of cap and players recently to give themselves room to rebuild the roster.  This offseason they spent a lot of money in free agency to shore up some real problem areas.  I think we were all happy to see things like the OL and WR corps greatly improve.  But they overpaid, sometimes by a lot, for the majority of those players.

 

Now we can argue that the plan was reasonable. We took some pain last year and, with the money saved, overpaid some players to reshape the team.  Fine.  Furthermore we can say that Star was one of those players - he was just brought in a year earlier. Also fine.  But we’ve spent that wad of cash we saved up and moving forward the team has to be more prudent in terms of spending.  If a player isn’t a big difference maker, then we have to build through the draft and find decent FA deals.  If we don’t, things will get out of hand quickly - and that will hinder our ability to make a push for a contender. 

Unless you're absolutely terrible at managing the cap (which Beane isn't) or overpaying for position players because you're making a SB run (which is justified, but the Bills haven't had any chance at that in ages), you should always find yourself in a reasonable cap situation if you're not paying a QB. The Bills' 2018 situation was partly a result of very bad cap management by Whaley (trying to run out a SB contender without an upper-level QB) and partly a result of Beane's decision to bite the bullet in 2018 and move cap dollars into that year. The latter was strategic. The Bills' cap situation is going to be great for at least the next two years after this one. Seriously, everyone needs to check out the Bills' cap situation on sportrac for 2020. McCoy and Hughes comes off the books. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Unless you're absolutely terrible at managing the cap (which Beane isn't) or overpaying for position players because you're making a SB run (which is justified, but the Bills haven't had any chance at that in ages), you should always find yourself in a reasonable cap situation if you're not paying a QB. The Bills' 2018 situation was partly a result of very bad cap management by Whaley (trying to run out a SB contender without a upper-level QB) and partly a result of Beane's decision to bite the bullet in 2018 and move cap dollars into that year. The latter was strategic. The Bills' cap situation is going to be great for at least the next two years after this one. Seriously, everyone needs to check out the Bills' cap situation on sportrac for 2020. McCoy and Hughes comes off the books. 

 

Your argument that poor cap management is acceptable if you aren’t paying a franchise QB  a veteran contract is ridiculous.  Sure, you can get away with it to some degree because of that, but you’re not maximizing talent on the field and you’re setting yourself up for major problems down the road.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Your argument that poor cap management is acceptable if you aren’t paying a franchise QB  a veteran contract is ridiculous.  Sure, you can get away with it to some degree because of that, but you’re not maximizing talent on the field and you’re setting yourself up for major problems down the road.

What??? When did I ever say that poor cap management is acceptable? And when is $10 million per a sky-high contract #? It's truly middle-of-the road -- i.e., completely normal -- for mid-career (still in their 20s) d-line vets who have performed well in the past. To be clear, I am not passing judgment on his performance last season. The Bills gave Dareus $16 mil per and Mario Williams $16.5 mill per in a period when the cap was literally $57 million less in 2012 and $34 million less in 2015 than than it was last season.

 

People really should look at sportrac and bone up on cap history. It goes up a lot every year because the league makes even more boatloads of money ever year! The Bills most expensive player NEXT season will be Mitch Morse (not Star!) at $11 million per, which is PEANUTS for a best-paid player. 

[GreggTX]

He's dead on average for a star-ting DT. This signing was a mistake and is compounded by the fact that we gave him a long term deal. By the end of the 2019 season, he may well be the 3rd best DT on the roster behind Oliver and Harry. J Phillips has little to no chance of passing him up, though. I wonder if McBeane will realize this and trade him and either Murphy or Shaq. Unlikely, but they admitted their mistake with KB and moved on. It's harder to do that with a guy that has the right attitude like Star. KB was immature and disinterested.

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Unless you're absolutely terrible at managing the cap (which Beane isn't) or overpaying for position players because you're making a SB run (which is justified, but the Bills haven't had any chance at that in ages), you should always find yourself in a reasonable cap situation if you're not paying a QB. The Bills' 2018 situation was partly a result of very bad cap management by Whaley (trying to run out a SB contender without an upper-level QB) and partly a result of Beane's decision to bite the bullet in 2018 and move cap dollars into that year. The latter was strategic. The Bills' cap situation is going to be great for at least the next two years after this one. Seriously, everyone needs to check out the Bills' cap situation on sportrac for 2020. McCoy and Hughes comes off the books. 

 

I sincerely hope you're wrong about Hughes.

[dave mcbride]

14 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

He's dead on average for a star-ting DT. This signing was a mistake and is compounded by the fact that we gave him a long term deal. By the end of the 2019 season, he may well be the 3rd best DT on the roster behind Oliver and Harry. J Phillips has little to no chance of passing him up, though. I wonder if McBeane will realize this and trade him and either Murphy or Shaq. Unlikely, but they admitted their mistake with KB and moved on. It's harder to do that with a guy that has the right attitude like Star. KB was immature and disinterested.

 

I sincerely hope you're wrong about Hughes.

As I said above, people really need to look at $10 million in context. It is not that much in today's NFL. It's not 2012 anymore. 

 

Re Hughes, he's a UFA next year. He gets to choose where he wants to go. Maybe he wants to stay with the Bills; maybe not. He will be 32 by the start of the 2020 season, though, and I'm not crazy about handing out big, years-long contracts for past production. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Unless you're absolutely terrible at managing the cap (which Beane isn't) or overpaying for position players because you're making a SB run (which is justified, but the Bills haven't had any chance at that in ages), you should always find yourself in a reasonable cap situation if you're not paying a QB. The Bills' 2018 situation was partly a result of very bad cap management by Whaley (trying to run out a SB contender without an upper-level QB) and partly a result of Beane's decision to bite the bullet in 2018 and move cap dollars into that year. The latter was strategic. The Bills' cap situation is going to be great for at least the next two years after this one. Seriously, everyone needs to check out the Bills' cap situation on sportrac for 2020. McCoy and Hughes comes off the books. 

 

Not true.

 

There were dumb moves like extending McCoy unnecessarily and not putting suspension clauses in Dareus deal.  IMO those are an indictment of Whaley for being a road scout GM and not having control over issues that Brandon, Pegula's and Rex were meddling in.  But on the whole they weren't that poorly positioned cap wise and had a strong roster in 2015-2016.

 

The Bills were always positioned to have lot's of cap room in 2018 and beyond........there were a number of players who figured to be coming off the books just as guys like Gilmore, Woods and Watkins were coming into UFA and Dareus was basically set up to come off the books after 2019 so contracts for those prime age players didn't even have to be backloaded much to retain them.  

 

Beane is plenty culpable for making bad cap decisions and squandering some of the vast funds that were available because of how the previous regime had structured things.    He pissed away almost $10M on camp bodies AJ McCarron and Corey Coleman alone.    The unnecessary Wood extension.   Giving McCoy incentives on top of his double dipped 2017 salary.   Going 0-9 in UFA last year including the absurd Star Lotulelei deal.   I could go on but the truth is that they haven't been ANY shrewder than the previous regime wrt the salary cap they just had a lot more room to work with.   

 

      

[C.Biscuit97]

On 4/28/2019 at 11:22 PM, eball said:

 

Has Lorax given you the impression he’s a liar?

 

Amazing what armchair athletes think they know about the inner workings of a team. 

OMG, was I this annoying when I was a homer?  I get constant negative people suck but you’re the exact opposite.  But you’re right.  Lorax would definitely come out and say Star was overpaid.  Are you serious?

 

if this was a Whaley signing, people would kill him. $10 million for a guy who can be playbooked off the field is not a great investment.  The Pats would simply go spread and Star couldn’t play.  That’s not great. 

22 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

He's Tongan.

You’re right and my bad for assuming.  I like Tongans too. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

He's dead on average for a star-ting DT. This signing was a mistake and is compounded by the fact that we gave him a long term deal. By the end of the 2019 season, he may well be the 3rd best DT on the roster behind Oliver and Harry. J Phillips has little to no chance of passing him up, though. I wonder if McBeane will realize this and trade him and either Murphy or Shaq. Unlikely, but they admitted their mistake with KB and moved on. It's harder to do that with a guy that has the right attitude like Star. KB was immature and disinterested.

 

I sincerely hope you're wrong about Hughes.

 

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

As I said above, people really need to look at $10 million in context. It is not that much in today's NFL. It's not 2012 anymore. 

 

Re Hughes, he's a UFA next year. He gets to choose where he wants to go. Maybe he wants to stay with the Bills; maybe not. He will be 32 by the start of the 2020 season, though, and I'm not crazy about handing out big, years-long contracts for past production. 

 

I spend a lot of time on Spotrac and the importance of good written contracts is huge.  Money is everything in the NFL.

I remember when Star was being talked about in FA last year and Spotrac (if I remember correctly) had Star's "Market Worth"

at around 6.8 which I thought was reasonable.  Give an extra 1 million because of the McDermott/Star history.

 

The contract IMO is heavy in salary (2 million per) and was on the long side for his age (should of been no more than 4 years).

The Bills have signed a lot of fair priced team/player contracts but Star and Murphy's were not.

Lot's of good contracts this year BUT I think that has more to do with Buffalo being a better destination for players compared to

last year.

 

I would like for Star's play (statistics and snap count) to be better this year.  However, I don't think Star's contract is anything to

worry about this year unless his play falls off a cliff. 

 

As for Hughes, I would like to see him extended for 2 years at 13-14 million.  That is reasonable for his performance

and age and I think factors a little of "it's better to stay home in Buffalo" than move on to a new team.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

I spend a lot of time on Spotrac and the importance of good written contracts is huge.  Money is everything in the NFL.

I remember when Star was being talked about in FA last year and Spotrac (if I remember correctly) had Star's "Market Worth"

at around 6.8 which I thought was reasonable.  Give an extra 1 million because of the McDermott/Star history.

 

The contract IMO is heavy in salary (2 million per) and was on the long side for his age (should of been no more than 4 years).

The Bills have signed a lot of fair priced team/player contracts but Star and Murphy's were not.

Lot's of good contracts this year BUT I think that has more to do with Buffalo being a better destination for players compared to

last year.

 

I would like for Star's play (statistics and snap count) to be better this year.  However, I don't think Star's contract is anything to

worry about this year unless his play falls off a cliff. 

 

As for Hughes, I would like to see him extended for 2 years at 13-14 million.  That is reasonable for his performance

and age and I think factors a little of "it's better to stay home in Buffalo" than move on to a new team.

Hughes is not worth that money.  It was an all time great trade for us but his age plus lack of production (at some point you have to finish) aren’t worth that coin.  Those are the type of contracts that will kill you in the future.  

 

There are young pass rushers who can do what Hughes doesn’t for much less.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not true.

 

There were dumb moves like extending McCoy unnecessarily and not putting suspension clauses in Dareus deal.  IMO those are an indictment of Whaley for being a road scout GM and not having control over issues that Brandon, Pegula's and Rex were meddling in.  But on the whole they weren't that poorly positioned cap wise and had a strong roster in 2015-2016.

 

The Bills were always positioned to have lot's of cap room in 2018 and beyond........there were a number of players who figured to be coming off the books just as guys like Gilmore, Woods and Watkins were coming into UFA and Dareus was basically set up to come off the books after 2019 so contracts for those prime age players didn't even have to be backloaded much to retain them.  

 

Beane is plenty culpable for making bad cap decisions and squandering some of the vast funds that were available because of how the previous regime had structured things.    He pissed away almost $10M on camp bodies AJ McCarron and Corey Coleman alone.    The unnecessary Wood extension.   Giving McCoy incentives on top of his double dipped 2017 salary.   Going 0-9 in UFA last year including the absurd Star Lotulelei deal.   I could go on but the truth is that they haven't been ANY shrewder than the previous regime wrt the salary cap they just had a lot more room to work with.   

 

      

Do you really think $10 million per given a $177 million cap is "absurd"?  I don't mean to criticize because I usually agree with you, but the cap went up $57 million since just 2012. It sounds like a lot of money to us ordinary Joes, but today it's a garden variety salary for a vet. 

 

Re: Whaley, I said it was a combo of the two, and I should have been clearre. Whaley would have had the Bills up against it regardless, although it would have been manageable; but add in the new GM who wanted a fresh start, and you get a one-year manufactured cap crisis. That said, Beane couldn't have manufactured that "crisis" if he didn't have $16 mil per contracts like the one Dareus had. In retrospect, Dareus was a massive overpay whose performance was roughly equal in quality to Star's last season. 

 

In any event, the money is such a small matter given the Bills' cap situation that I'm shocked people are harping on it. And again, $10 million ain't what it used to be. For a vet at a relatively premium position, it's good-middle-reliever money (in baseball terms). 

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Hughes is not worth that money.  It was an all time great trade for us but his age plus lack of production (at some point you have to finish) aren’t worth that coin.  Those are the type of contracts that will kill you in the future.  

 

There are young pass rushers who can do what Hughes doesn’t for much less.

At the risk of sounding like the most broken record of all time, people REALLY need to look at the massive increase in the size of the cap in the past half dozen years and ignore the raw number, however gaudy it may look. Add in the NFL's streaming deals that will be coming down the pike in the next year or two, and $13-14 million per will seem like relative chump change. 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Do you really think $10 million per given a $177 million cap is "absurd"?  I don't mean to criticize because I usually agree with you, but the cap went up $57 million since just 2012. It sounds like a lot of money to us ordinary Joes, but today it's a garden variety salary for a vet. 

 

Re: Whaley, I said it was a combo of the two, and I should have been clearre. Whaley would have had the Bills up against it regardless, although it would have been manageable; but add in the new GM who wanted a fresh start, and you get a one-year manufactured cap crisis. That said, Beane couldn't have manufactured that "crisis" if he didn't have $16 mil per contracts like the one Dareus had. In retrospect, Dareus was a massive overpay whose performance was roughly equal in quality to Star's last season. 

 

In any event, the money is such a small matter given the Bills' cap situation that I'm shocked people are harping on it. And again, $10 million ain't what it used to be. For a vet at a relatively premium position, it's good-middle-reliever money (in baseball terms). 

At the risk of sounding like the most broken record of all time, people REALLY need to look at the massive increase in the size of the cap in the past half dozen years and ignore the raw number, however gaudy it may look. Add in the NFL's streaming deals that will be coming down the pike in the next year or two, and $13-14 million per will seem like relative chump change. 

I hear you Dave but that doesn’t mean you should hand out bad contracts.  I think Star is good at his role but I think it silly to pay that much to a guy who can be schemed off the field (Brandon Spikes was like this).  It’s a different NFl.  And I can find a payer younger than 31 to give me 22 sacks in 4 years for less than $13 million/ year.  

 

But guys are very replacable for a lot less. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

What??? When did I ever say that poor cap management is acceptable? And when is $10 million per a sky-high contract #? It's truly middle-of-the road -- i.e., completely normal -- for mid-career (still in their 20s) d-line vets who have performed well in the past. To be clear, I am not passing judgment on his performance last season. The Bills gave Dareus $16 mil per and Mario Williams $16.5 mill per in a period when the cap was literally $57 million less in 2012 and $34 million less in 2015 than than it was last season.

 

People really should look at sportrac and bone up on cap history. It goes up a lot every year because the league makes even more boatloads of money ever year! The Bills most expensive player NEXT season will be Mitch Morse (not Star!) at $11 million per, which is PEANUTS for a best-paid player. 

 

Regarding cap management, how about in these two posts?

 

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

We really shouldn’t be arguing about overpays (or even bringing it up, frankly) for a team that still has a ton of cap space after 8000 FA signings and is currently slated to lead the league in cap space next year with a number closing in on $100 million. I could care less if they make the occasional overpay. It’s the very definition of a red herring given the situation.

 

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I’m not sure of your point. The cap doesn’t matter for the Bills right now, and the Bills actually TRIED to push cap dollars into the 2018 season with the expectation that they’d be free and clear for the next few seasons (easy to do when you’re not paying a qb or any true star contracts). Check out sportrac for 2020.

 

For someone who spouts off about knowing cap management you don’t seem to understand a whole lot about it.  Two contract examples: You can refer to my previous posts on Star’s deal.  It’s a huge overpayment for a two down run stuffer. Poe’s is the next highest for that and it isn’t nearly the contract Star got.  Again, I’ve explained that in a previous post.  To compare his value to that of complete DTs who are 3 down players is pretty ridiculous. Let’s also cover Morse.  He’s a solid center, but he is no better than slightly above average. Yet he has the highest average annual salary of any center in the game.  You miss the point is cap management entirely if you don’t understand the issue there - and you sure don’t judging by your comments on it. 

 

You also miss the point concerning the cap situation going forward.  You look and see a relatively low number and think everything is fine.  But you’re missing a lot of important things- like who isn’t on that list of players and how much those players will make.  An easy example is DE.  We will need to add 2-3 players there and two should be impact players.  That’s just one position.  Also look at teams with rookie FQBs that competed last season or are ready to compete this season.  LA Rams, Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.  The Rams are already up against the cap and even though the Bears and Browns show room both have active spending above the current league cap.  They can do that because they both had plenty of carryover.  Every dollar counts toward making a championship push with that FQB on his rookie deal - just as much as it does when you’re paying that FQB later.  The former is trying to go from a bad team with a top pick and get on top.  The latter is trying to stay on top.  That should all be obvious to anyone who can understand how the cap works.  

 

[GreggTX]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

As I said above, people really need to look at $10 million in context. It is not that much in today's NFL. It's not 2012 anymore. 

 

Re Hughes, he's a UFA next year. He gets to choose where he wants to go. Maybe he wants to stay with the Bills; maybe not. He will be 32 by the start of the 2020 season, though, and I'm not crazy about handing out big, years-long contracts for past production. 

 

Agreed on both points except we're stuck with Lotulelei for 4 more years or we eat dead money to upgrade the position. Oliver will be facing double teams instead of Star.

 

We won't need to offer Hughes a 4 year contract because no one else will either and I still think he can be productive for a couple more years, but that's just a guess. DE could be our primary need next offseason.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Do you really think $10 million per given a $177 million cap is "absurd"?  I don't mean to criticize because I usually agree with you, but the cap went up $57 million since just 2012. It sounds like a lot of money to us ordinary Joes, but today it's a garden variety salary for a vet. 

 

Re: Whaley, I said it was a combo of the two, and I should have been clearre. Whaley would have had the Bills up against it regardless, although it would have been manageable; but add in the new GM who wanted a fresh start, and you get a one-year manufactured cap crisis. That said, Beane couldn't have manufactured that "crisis" if he didn't have $16 mil per contracts like the one Dareus had. In retrospect, Dareus was a massive overpay whose performance was roughly equal in quality to Star's last season. 

 

In any event, the money is such a small matter given the Bills' cap situation that I'm shocked people are harping on it. And again, $10 million ain't what it used to be. For a vet at a relatively premium position, it's good-middle-reliever money (in baseball terms). 

At the risk of sounding like the most broken record of all time, people REALLY need to look at the massive increase in the size of the cap in the past half dozen years and ignore the raw number, however gaudy it may look. Add in the NFL's streaming deals that will be coming down the pike in the next year or two, and $13-14 million per will seem like relative chump change. 

 

Let's not downplay it.  $26.5M guaranteed was absurd.   His AAV won't start creeping down toward $10M per until after year 3.   You see him on the roster for 3 more seasons?

 

I'm with you on the salary cap situation.............but why get rid of so many good players and then overpay a guy like Star?   They COMPOUNDED the Dareus issue.   Dareus was playing outstanding in McD's scheme.    A LOT better than Star.   I mean Star is going to end up costing them around $14M per season to rent for a couple years.    Factor in Cole Beasley's deal and you are pretty close to the AAV's for the league's best CB in Stephon Gilmore and 1200 yard Bob Woods.     You and I both know some of the rhetoric used to explain letting players go was horsesh*t in the first place.    But what that means is they gotta' OWN their choices.

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Let's not downplay it.  $26.5M guaranteed was absurd.   His AAV won't start creeping down toward $10M per until after year 3.   You see him on the roster for 3 more seasons?

 

I'm with you on the salary cap situation.............but why get rid of so many good players and then overpay a guy like Star?   They COMPOUNDED the Dareus issue.   Dareus was playing outstanding in McD's scheme.    A LOT better than Star.   I mean Star is going to end up costing them around $14M per season to rent for a couple years.    Factor in Cole Beasley's deal and you are pretty close to the AAV's for the league's best CB in Stephon Gilmore and 1200 yard Bob Woods.     You and I both know some of the rhetoric used to explain letting players go was horsesh*t in the first place.    But what that means is they gotta' OWN their choices.

I want to be clear - I am not justifying Star's play. It needs to be better. I'm just saying that $10 million per is not really a bad deal for a guy who was two years removed from a very productive season and who was at the center of an intermittently excellent defense in a division packed with explosive offenses (he had a GREAT rookie season, but I realize that that's ancient history).  I have no idea about years 4 and 5; let's see how he does this year. His whole career has been one where good seasons alternated with non-descript ones.  Re Dareus, he did play alright (not great though!) in 2017, but he was hurt a lot with the sort of injuries that come with being out of shape. He was a beast on his first contract, but I also think it's become clear that he's the sort of person you need to be very wary about giving a big second contract to. Frankly, he was a headache and extremely immature his last couple/few seasons in Buffalo. 

 

Woods is seriously underpaid (5 years/$34 million) given his productivity and he's one we should never have let get away. No argument on that one.

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I want to be clear - I am not justifying Star's play. It needs to be better. I'm just saying that $10 million per is not really a bad deal for a guy who was two years removed from a very productive season and who was at the center of an intermittently excellent defense in a division packed with explosive offenses (he had a GREAT rookie season, but I realize that that's ancient history).  Re Dareus, he did play alright (not great though!) in 2017, but he was hurt a lot with the sort of injuries that come with being out of shape. He was a beast on his first contract, but I also think it's become clear that he's the sort of person you need to be very wary about giving a big second contract to. Frankly, he was a headache and extremely immature his last couple/few of seasons in Buffalo. 

 

Woods is seriously underpaid (5 years/$34 million) given his productivity and he's one we should never have let get away. No argument on that one.

 

 

It's not $10M per.  He was guaranteed $26.5M at signing.

 

Obviously you don't see Star on the roster in 2021 because you didn't answer the question.

 

If he's cut after this year.........which seems likely after his "performance" last year........ he will have cost them about $14M per season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

23 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

That's a lot of speculation.  Star and whether he is worth the money has been disgusted to death.

Star has the highest cap money this year because the Bills do not have any premiere signing.

It's also his high water mark on cap hit and will go down some the following years while the overall cap goes up.

 

You're new and I'll try to recap what I see as the 3 main results of peoples opinions on Star from all the threads.

1.  Star isn't worth the money and is no good at what he does.

2.  Star's stats don't reflect what he is paid to do and he is doing his job.

3.  Star is getting paid a little more (debated as to how much more) than he is producing.

 

I'm in the 3rd group.  That being said I'm hoping his play improves with a more established defense and improved

play by Edmunds.  I think and it's only speculation on my part that Star was asked to protect the young MLB by

"staying home" in the middle more than he has in the past. 

 

This is a pretty apt summation and I would also be in Group 3.  Star's contract makes him something like the #9 paid DLman.  I think that's about 5-10 slots too high, depending upon contract details I'm not motivated to excavate right now.

 

My point overall would be, be startled by his performance or lack thereof on the field (as you like), but

1) not by his snap count, which is the same as it was in great defense years in Carolina (2014-2015)

2) not by his % of the Bills cap, which is #1 only because (as you point out) we don't have any marquee players we're paying - he'd only be #5-#8 on many another team

3) it's legitimately very tough to look at an OLman (or a DT) and grade their performance on each play from the outside, because you don't know what the assignment was.

 

I was under-impressed by the signing when it happened and felt at the time we had over-paid for the player he was.  But if the coaches and players say he's doing what he's asked, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope that Horrible Harry takes a step and that Oliver is "all that", and he can return towards his Carolina form this year.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

2) To that point......Kyle was the same guy or better than he had been in 2017..........no drop-off.........he just played about 3%-4% fewer snaps because of better depth at 3T.

 

That may be, but the KW I remember ran in 2013-2015 - and the last few years have seen him drop off markedly from what he was then.

I don't think that (nor playing next to a rookie and in front of one) can be excluded from play into Star's apparent drop off last year, but I acknowledge that I did not deep-dive into the DL play last year.

 

Quote

3) Question.......if you "tie up 2 blockers on every play"........but you play less than 50% of snaps.........aren't you mathematically single blocked?  

 

No

 

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

What do you think his production is worth?    

I'm not talking about stats.

Do you think he's so uniquely talented for McFrazier's special ops 1 tech position that it can be verified neither by eye or stat test whether his contributions are worth $26.5M guaranteed?

What's the difference between what Lorax says about Star and what Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman?

It seems like bickering for the sake of bickering...........they clearly overpaid by A LOT and that will be more than clarified soon enough.

 

I've addressed the contract value question elsewhere....I wasn't a fan of the signing overall, and I certainly don't think he's uniquely talented for McDermott's system.  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically, and I hope they are fulfilled not just on the field, but in his off-field prep and mentoring.

 

I just don't roll with being "shocked, shocked" that the guy played less than 50% of the snaps, when that was the case during the best D McDermott fielded in CAR and McDermott is known to want a DL rotation - and frankly, if they overpaid, at the time, they may have had to overpay to bring in the guys they wanted.  Not many FA lining up to come to a team without a QB that appears to be jettisoning players.

 

What Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman was proven exactly correct - it was taken in the media as praise, but in fact had a possible different interpretation of being reckless with the ball and throwing a lot of picks - which one must admit is exactly what Peterman did.  Favre led the league in INTs several seasons.  Albeit, he didn't throw 5 per half ever that I know of.  So Nate Favre outdid the Master Gunslinger there.

 

By the way, what I view as KW's best seasons were 2012-2015 (injury shortened), when he was 29-32 yrs old.  So 30 can be a prime age for a DT, even an "undersized" one such as Kyle.

[Big Turk]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:33 AM, MJS said:

I'm fine with him, but it does seem his paycheck is too large for the role he is playing. Hopefully that doesn't impact us negatively in the future.

 

Anybody know the details of his contract and when the Bills have a good out?

 

The team has plenty of cap room...they aren't paying a QB yet so no need to panic...his deal will expire before the Bills would need to commit major jack to a QB.

Edited April 30, 2019 by matter2003

[ColoradoBills]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

This is a pretty apt summation and I would also be in Group 3.  Star's contract makes him something like the #9 paid DLman.  I think that's about 5-10 slots too high, depending upon contract details I'm not motivated to excavate right now.

 

My point overall would be, be startled by his performance or lack thereof on the field (as you like), but

1) not by his snap count, which is the same as it was in great defense years in Carolina (2014-2015)

2) not by his % of the Bills cap, which is #1 only because (as you point out) we don't have any marquee players we're paying - he'd only be #5-#8 on many another team

3) it's legitimately very tough to look at an OLman (or a DT) and grade their performance on each play from the outside, because you don't know what the assignment was.

 

I was under-impressed by the signing when it happened and felt at the time we had over-paid for the player he was.  But if the coaches and players say he's doing what he's asked, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope that Horrible Harry takes a step and that Oliver is "all that", and he can return towards his Carolina form this year.

 

 

I looked at the snap count and see your point.

Also, I agree his role is hard to evaluate.  So it's up to OBD to value him correctly (which is hard for us to do).

 

The only thing about a player like Star will be McDermott and the "loyalty" factor if his play is not in line with cost.

Maybe I should say "his guy" type of a thing.  I don't think any of us yet know where that lies.

I don't think he's Rex Ryan kind of HC (LOL, I pray he isn't) but I'm looking at this years roster and seeing IF there can be a clue to it.

Right or wrong I'm using DiMarco as the canary in the coal mine this year.  I think his usefulness has played out.

 

I digressed, but I also kind of think that McDermott is more the emotional guy and Beane is more the business guy.

I hope they work together well.

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I looked at the snap count and see your point.

Also, I agree his role is hard to evaluate.  So it's up to OBD to value him correctly (which is hard for us to do).

 

The only thing about a player like Star will be McDermott and the "loyalty" factor if his play is not in line with cost.

Maybe I should say "his guy" type of a thing.  I don't think any of us yet know where that lies.

I don't think he's Rex Ryan kind of HC (LOL, I pray he isn't) but I'm looking at this years roster and seeing IF there can be a clue to it.

Right or wrong I'm using DiMarco as the canary in the coal mine this year.  I think his usefulness has played out.

 

I digressed, but I also kind of think that McDermott is more the emotional guy and Beane is more the business guy.

I hope they work together well.

 

You make the point that I was thinking about. I don't think we have any idea what it was that caused McDermott and Beane to want to bring Star to the Bills. I firmly believe it was some combination of his play, and his attitude and his leadership skills.

 

McDermott has said often that it is important to have a leader in every room. That means he wanted to have a leader in the defensive line room, and he knew that Kyle Williams would be leaving after 2018. I think Beane signed Star in order to fill the leadership void in the defensive line room. He also signed him because they knew about his work ethic and his general leadership skills.

 

I think any effort to evaluate whether Star is worth what he's being paid has to be made in light of what it was that McDermott and Beane wanted, and I don't think we really understand that fully.

 

As others have said, even his play on the field is tough to evaluate.  If his job is to force double teams and simply to occupy blockers, I doubt any of us has studied his play that carefully to know how effective he has been. And M D platoons d linemen, so expecting much more tha. 50% of the snaps isn't reasonable.  

 

I think Beane knew exactly what he was doing when he wrote that check. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That may be, but the KW I remember ran in 2013-2015 - and the last few years have seen him drop off markedly from what he was then.

I don't think that (nor playing next to a rookie and in front of one) can be excluded from play into Star's apparent drop off last year, but I acknowledge that I did not deep-dive into the DL play last year.

 

 

No

 

 

I've addressed the contract value question elsewhere....I wasn't a fan of the signing overall, and I certainly don't think he's uniquely talented for McDermott's system.  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically, and I hope they are fulfilled not just on the field, but in his off-field prep and mentoring.

 

I just don't roll with being "shocked, shocked" that the guy played less than 50% of the snaps, when that was the case during the best D McDermott fielded in CAR and McDermott is known to want a DL rotation - and frankly, if they overpaid, at the time, they may have had to overpay to bring in the guys they wanted.  Not many FA lining up to come to a team without a QB that appears to be jettisoning players.

 

What Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman was proven exactly correct - it was taken in the media as praise, but in fact had a possible different interpretation of being reckless with the ball and throwing a lot of picks - which one must admit is exactly what Peterman did.  Favre led the league in INTs several seasons.  Albeit, he didn't throw 5 per half ever that I know of.

 

 

1) No doubt.

 

2) I was anything but shocked that a down trending two down lineman played less than half of the snaps on a bad team.    Knew that would be the case.   He was in decline in Carolina that's why the signing was universally panned.  He fell off even more than anticipated though.  The fact that there weren't many FA lining up to sign with Buffalo is part of the reason you keep your own players.  Kept KB on the roster for most of a season where he wasn't even trying........but couldn't make it work with Dareus who was.   Lord McDermott works in mysterious ways.  

 

3) Hyde on Brandon Reilly:

 

"I feel like he's that (Adam) Thielen from Minnesota type guy," Hyde said. "He doesn't look like he's going to beat you over the top. He doesn't look like he's going to go up and get a ball on you. But when that ball is thrown, he's going to make plays."

 

Are we clear about the value of quotes from players about teammates?

 

[dave mcbride]

57 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not $10M per.  He was guaranteed $26.5M at signing.

 

Obviously you don't see Star on the roster in 2021 because you didn't answer the question.

 

If he's cut after this year.........which seems likely after his "performance" last year........ he will have cost them about $14M per season.

I quickly adjusted my response after I posted that. See above.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You make the point that I was thinking about. I don't think we have any idea what it was that caused McDermott and Beane to want to bring Star to the Bills. I firmly believe it was some combination of his play, and his attitude and his leadership skills.

 

McDermott has said often that it is important to have a leader in every room. That means he wanted to have a leader in the defensive line room, and he knew that Kyle Williams would be leaving after 2018. I think Beane signed Star in order to fill the leadership void in the defensive line room. He also signed him because they knew about his work ethic and his general leadership skills.

 

I think any effort to evaluate whether Star is worth what he's being paid has to be made in light of what it was that McDermott and Beane wanted, and I don't think we really understand that fully.

 

As others have said, even his play on the field is tough to evaluate.  If his job is to force double teams and simply to occupy blockers, I doubt any of us has studied his play that carefully to know how effective he has been. And M D platoons d linemen, so expecting much more tha. 50% of the snaps isn't reasonable.  

 

I think Beane knew exactly what he was doing when he wrote that check. 

 

I'm sure he was.  He is also needed to fill the role he plays in McDermott's D.  It is by definition a thankless job.

I also have speculated that when Edmunds was drafted (and was struggling some) that McDermott would of wanted Star to keep

Tremaine as clean as possible.  How well Star and Edmunds play together will be very important this year.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

What??? When did I ever say that poor cap management is acceptable? And when is $10 million per a sky-high contract #? It's truly middle-of-the road -- i.e., completely normal -- for mid-career (still in their 20s) d-line vets who have performed well in the past. To be clear, I am not passing judgment on his performance last season. The Bills gave Dareus $16 mil per and Mario Williams $16.5 mill per in a period when the cap was literally $57 million less in 2012 and $34 million less in 2015 than than it was last season.

 

People really should look at sportrac and bone up on cap history. It goes up a lot every year because the league makes even more boatloads of money ever year! The Bills most expensive player NEXT season will be Mitch Morse (not Star!) at $11 million per, which is PEANUTS for a best-paid player. 

 

 

In context those were every down ALL PRO type players that would earn $20M+ with those resumes on the open market now.

 

And a good NT back then was lucky to get $4M.   If they were lucky.  Terrance Knighton would be a KIND comp to Lotulelei from that period.

 

Snax Harrison blew the lid off of the NT market with his $10M plus deal with the Giants but that dude was not just a plugger he was getting 80 tackles per year!

 

No matter how you slice it the payday they gave Star was nuts.   2.5x the guarantee that the Panthers gave his replacement Dontari Poe.    Neither played well last year(PFF rated Poe considerably higher) but at least the Panthers aren't tied into a declining DT by a huge contract.   Very, very poor value.    

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

 

I would like for Star's play (statistics and snap count) to be better this year.  However, I don't think Star's contract is anything to

worry about this year unless his play falls off a cliff. 

 

 

 

 

It fell off a cliff last year.

 

He was not providing the challenge he used to for OL and statistically he was invisible.

 

Compare his production in Carolina to the numbers of Damon Harrison when he broke the zero/one tech market when he signed with the NYG.

 

That guy was getting 80 tackles per season AND occupying two blockers and making plays in the backfield..........and even then people shook their heads about the contract because it's not a skillset that is worth that much money.   

 

That's why people scoffed at the Star signing.

 

But then he went out and was a shell of his former self.

 

I think some fans don't realize that the starting point of what he was doing in Carolina wasn't even worth the money.

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

I assume this contract was debated at the time we signed him, frankly I don't recall the exact reasons. To replace Dareus, McD presumably wanted someone he knew to continue to change the culture of the team, he wanted the leadership, the accountability and someone who also bought into the process. Additionally they needed to fill a hole:

 

After trading Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars last October, the Bills allowed a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns and an AFC-worst 1,487 rush yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Of those yards, 1,105 were inside the tackles, and opponents' 4.8 yards per rush inside the tackles was tied for worst in the NFL. 2016 third-round pick Adolphus Washington filled in for Dareus and was ranked 113th among NFL defensive tackles by Pro Football Focus. 

 

The Panthers ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (88.1) last season. If Lotulelei did not perform well, Carolina's run defense did not suffer because of it. Moreover, Bills coach Sean McDermott should have a strong idea of how Lotulelei fits into his defensive system after coaching him for four seasons (2013-16) as Panthers defensive coordinator

 

You also have to look at the state of the team. In the 2017 offseason, after we hired McD, fired the FO, passed over Mahomes, traded Watkins, lost woods, overpaid Tolbert, traded darues during the season and got lucky by making the playoffs and over acheived that year. In 2018 new GM, traded TT, Signed AJ, traded Glenn, drafted a not widely loved QB in the draft, John brown wouldn't sign here, etc; the HC declared Nate the starter, Vontae quit at half time,  yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly a model of stability.

 

We overpaid to bring a guy the HC trusted to help with the transition and fill a self-made hole (yes Dareus was an ####### and needed to go). It sure wasn't a great contract for performance, but that was not the entire reason he came in here IMO. The presence he brought into the locker room I assume accounted for a couple million and this year, we had no problem signing FAs. If he played any role in helping turn the tide in terms of stability and getting players to trust the process, he was worth it. That being said, going forward, we should not be handing out awful contracts, which we did not do this offseason when we signed like 879,321 players. 

 

JMO

 

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically

Beane's been clear.  They had a choice.  They didn't have the players they wanted.  They could have moved them over a few years and managed the cap less drastically or they could clean house and live with the cap mess.  They decided that the fastest way to get where they want to be was clean house.

 

Given that, I don't think the notion of "getting a pass" applies.  Like lots of new GMs and coaches, they wanted different players.  The only question of relevance is whether they're getting the job done. It looks to me like they are.  The particular question here is whether getting Star and at his price was a good move.  I don't.know, and I don't trust anyone's conclusions here about that.  I'd like to know what McB thinks about that question. 

[eball]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG, was I this annoying when I was a homer?  I get constant negative people suck but you’re the exact opposite.  But you’re right.  Lorax would definitely come out and say Star was overpaid.  Are you serious?

 

if this was a Whaley signing, people would kill him. $10 million for a guy who can be playbooked off the field is not a great investment.  The Pats would simply go spread and Star couldn’t play.  That’s not great. 

 

 

Star is/was a piece of the transition puzzle -- a McD guy who would reinforce the culture.  I'm sure they expected more out of him, but I won't call the signing a "swing and miss" because the Bills' D was actually pretty good.  As others have noted, 10-14M/season isn't an exorbitant deal under the current cap.  If Star only plays half the snaps this season and is gone after 2019 the Bills won't be in bad shape.

 

So my point, at the end of the day, is why are we so concerned about Star's contract?

[ColoradoBills]

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It fell off a cliff last year.

 

He was not providing the challenge he used to for OL and statistically he was invisible.

 

Compare his production in Carolina to the numbers of Damon Harrison when he broke the zero/one tech market when he signed with the NYG.

 

That guy was getting 80 tackles per season AND occupying two blockers and making plays in the backfield..........and even then people shook their heads about the contract because it's not a skillset that is worth that much money.   

 

That's why people scoffed at the Star signing.

 

But then he went out and was a shell of his former self.

 

I think some fans don't realize that the starting point of what he was doing in Carolina wasn't even worth the money.

 

 

 

Bad, it's not that I disagree with your points.  I believe they all have merit.

I guess we just differ on the degree.  I also am sticking with Star trying to keep the rookie kid as free as possible.

Star "ain't goin' nowhere" this year so we all will see how he performs this coming season.

I know you will be watching!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane's been clear.  They had a choice.  They didn't have the players they wanted.  They could have moved them over a few years and managed the cap less drastically or they could clean house and live with the cap mess.  They decided that the fastest way to get where they want to be was clean house.

 

Given that, I don't think the notion of "getting a pass" applies.  Like lots of new GMs and coaches, they wanted different players.  The only question of relevance is whether they're getting the job done. It looks to me like they are.  The particular question here is whether getting Star and at his price was a good move.  I don't.know, and I don't trust anyone's conclusions here about that.  I'd like to know what McB thinks about that question. 

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

 

 

 

 

 

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

They were also LOUSY in the red zone.

 

That's where a DT who can't get past the LOS is a big problem.

 

People think you want to get bigger in the redzone.........you want to get QUICKER in the redzone........penetration is the key there.

 

Hopefully Ed Oliver helps that but the exchange is a pretty good Kyle Williams so it's not 100% gain...........they need Star or Harrison (or another player to maybe become available the way Snacks did last year) and that guy needs to show enough to command some attention on quick hitting redzone plays.

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

 

The only thing I would add is Daboll.  People wanted to hang him after 3 games last year. The guy had nothing to work with.

We will see if the Bills got a competent or dare we hope better than competent OC.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

Hmmm...

Usually, when yards and points don't match with points much worse, it's a sign that the D is being disadvantaged by TOs.  And we did have a lot of offensive TOs, tied for 2nd most in the league last year.

 

I don't think a 3 yd difference in average drive start between us and our opponents should be that significant?  I don't doubt you, but what are you looking at to say that?

[MJS]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

The team has plenty of cap room...they aren't paying a QB yet so no need to panic...his deal will expire before the Bills would need to commit major jack to a QB.

All true. My comment was from back in January, though. For some reason someone decided to resurrect this thread.

[dave mcbride]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

They were also LOUSY in the red zone.

 

That's where a DT who can't get past the LOS is a big problem.

 

People think you want to get bigger in the redzone.........you want to get QUICKER in the redzone........penetration is the key there.

 

Hopefully Ed Oliver helps that but the exchange is a pretty good Kyle Williams so it's not 100% gain...........they need Star or Harrison (or another player to maybe become available the way Snacks did last year) and that guy needs to show enough to command some attention on quick hitting redzone plays.

#2 in defensive DVOA, which is a lot more important than the counting stats (to me, at least).  The key driver in that was the fact that opposing QBs had a collective passer rating of 82.6, which is REALLY low in this day and age (3rd in the league behind Baltimore and Chicago:  http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&tabSeq=2&season=2018&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&qualified=false).  Team passer rating differential is the king of all stats, but the issue for the Bills is that their own team passer rating was a hilariously low 62.6. It's hard to be that bad. Even Arizona's historically awful offense had a team rating of 69.0. 

The Bills' D was 3rd in net yards per passing attempt and 10th in yards given up per rush. Pretty good across the board relative to the rest of the league ... 

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

Got it.  They had a choice.  You can argue about whether it would have been possible to build a winner just moving forward with what McD inherited.  I really dont know.  

 

On another point, good discussion about how significant second I. total yards really is.  I like the points about DVOA and passer rating.  Those are two gos measures of how effective the D really was.  My impression was that the offense struggled so that badly that the defense simply couldn't win games alone.  A decent offense with that defense would have won a.bumch of games. 

 

O line has to perform this season.  And Allen.  And Daboll.