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Tampa Bay: hires new HC Bruce Arians

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3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I mentioned, Palmer put up 35 TDs to 30 INTs in Oakland. Jameis has 88 TDs to 58 INTs in Tampa. Jameis has undoubtedly been better in Tampa than Palmer was in Oakland, and probably better than Palmer was in Cinci too. It wasn't until he got to Arizona and was coached by Arians that Palmer learned how to protect the ball; up until then, he was more turnover prone than Jameis (at least in terms of INTs).

Arians also developed Ben and Luck. He’s a GREAT coach for QBs. I did hear yesterday something I didn’t know previously, that Freddie Kitchens was the QB coach in Arizona when Palmer was there and didn’t get much credit which all went to Arians... but should have gotten some 

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59 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I mentioned, Palmer put up 35 TDs to 30 INTs in Oakland. Jameis has 88 TDs to 58 INTs in Tampa. Jameis has undoubtedly been better in Tampa than Palmer was in Oakland, and probably better than Palmer was in Cinci too. It wasn't until he got to Arizona and was coached by Arians that Palmer learned how to protect the ball; up until then, he was more turnover prone than Jameis (at least in terms of INTs).

 

In his BEST season (which is now 3 long seasons ago...) Winston put up these numbers:  4090/28/18/86 rating. 

 

In Palmers ONLY (nearly:15 games) full season in Oakland (throwing to Heyward-Bey and Darreus Moore) he put up these:  4018/22/14/85 rating.

 

Better than Palmer in Cincy?  Turnover prone?

 

'05:  3836/32/12/101

'06:  4035/28/13/94

'07:  4131/26/20/87

 

So you are wrong on all counts.   Sure Arians is a great HC, but when Palmer got to AZ, he had Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson on his offense as well.  That might have helped.

 

Winston is a head case who has thrown for over 22 TDs once in his career.  He's thrown for 38 TDs vs 25 ints the past 2 years and has 2 complete seasons in 4.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

In his BEST season (which is now 3 long seasons ago...) Winston put up these numbers:  4090/28/18/86 rating. 

 

In Palmers ONLY (nearly:15 games) full season in Oakland (throwing to Heyward-Bey and Darreus Moore) he put up these:  4018/22/14/85 rating.

 

Better than Palmer in Cincy?  Turnover prone?

 

'05:  3836/32/12/101

'06:  4035/28/13/94

'07:  4131/26/20/87

 

So you are wrong on all counts.   Sure Arians is a great HC, but when Palmer got to AZ, he had Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson on his offense as well.  That might have helped.

 

Winston is a head case who has thrown for over 22 TDs once in his career.  He's thrown for 38 TDs vs 25 ints the past 2 years and has 2 complete seasons in 4.

 

 

Thanks for digging into the numbers weeds on this. Winston is a reclamation project who at times lost his job to a journeyman backup. I like Arians, but at his age and given what he has to work with, not sure this was the best coaching renaissance opportunity for him. 

Edited by NoHuddleKelly12
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11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

In his BEST season (which is now 3 long seasons ago...) Winston put up these numbers:  4090/28/18/86 rating. 

 

In Palmers ONLY (nearly:15 games) full season in Oakland (throwing to Heyward-Bey and Darreus Moore) he put up these:  4018/22/14/85 rating.

 

Better than Palmer in Cincy?  Turnover prone?

 

'05:  3836/32/12/101

'06:  4035/28/13/94

'07:  4131/26/20/87

 

So you are wrong on all counts.   Sure Arians is a great HC, but when Palmer got to AZ, he had Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson on his offense as well.  That might have helped.

 

Winston is a head case who has thrown for over 22 TDs once in his career.  He's thrown for 38 TDs vs 25 ints the past 2 years and has 2 complete seasons in 4.

 

 

 

Palmer played 25 games for Oakland; it seems silly to only look at roughly half of them. In Cinci, Palmer threw INTs on 3.1% of his passes, and that ballooned to 3.4% in Oakland. Jameis has thrown INTs on 3.0% of his passes, so yes, Palmer was more INT-prone than Jameis was pre-Arians. And again, I don't know why you would focus on just one season for Jameis when he's now played four years in Tampa. During that time, he has thrown 88 TDs to 58 INTs, which still isn't great but it's significantly better than Palmer's 35/30 split in Oakland. Looking at Palmer Pre-Arians, he put up 189 TDs to 130 INTs, which is a worse ratio than Jameis. Palmer was also worse in terms of TD%, INT% (as I already mentioned), ANY/A, QBR, and passer rating.

 

Edit: Obviously this doesn't mean that Jameis will now turn into a borderline MVP candidate like Palmer did under Arians, but Jameis is basically in the same exact spot as Palmer was before he linked up with Arians, except Jameis is almost 10 years younger.

Edited by DCOrange

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29 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Palmer played 25 games for Oakland; it seems silly to only look at roughly half of them. In Cinci, Palmer threw INTs on 3.1% of his passes, and that ballooned to 3.4% in Oakland. Jameis has thrown INTs on 3.0% of his passes, so yes, Palmer was more INT-prone than Jameis was pre-Arians. And again, I don't know why you would focus on just one season for Jameis when he's now played four years in Tampa. During that time, he has thrown 88 TDs to 58 INTs, which still isn't great but it's significantly better than Palmer's 35/30 split in Oakland. Looking at Palmer Pre-Arians, he put up 189 TDs to 130 INTs, which is a worse ratio than Jameis. Palmer was also worse in terms of TD%, INT% (as I already mentioned), ANY/A, QBR, and passer rating.

 

Edit: Obviously this doesn't mean that Jameis will now turn into a borderline MVP candidate like Palmer did under Arians, but Jameis is basically in the same exact spot as Palmer was before he linked up with Arians, except Jameis is almost 10 years younger.

 

I picked his full season in Oak to compare full seasons.  In fact, after a rough half season his first year in Oak, he was able to get his yards back over 4000 and his INT to 2.5%--all without Bruce Arians!

 

Look, you said Winston is better than Palmer was in Oakland.  Maybe 3 year ago he was, but not now.  You also said Winston now is better  than Palmer was in Cincy.  That's demonstrably false.  So is the claim that Arians somehow fixed Palmer.   Palmer was a 2 time Pro Bowler QB in Cincy (3 of his seasons were INT% 2.8 or less, by the way).  Arians is a great coach, no doubt.  But I'm not convinced he fixed the mechanics of a long term veteran who was successful elsewhere and even tossed for over 4000 on a mediocre Oakland team (that's why AZ picked him up).  It's just as likely that Palmer's numbers improved (slightly) because he had better offensive weapons to play with.   Winston has Jackson and Evans to throw to and he's tossing 19 TDs in 13 games last year??  And 19 more this year in 9 games---and old Fitzy had 17 in 7!

 

I think Arians is crazy for passing on the Browns (if he did) to go coach one of the least attractive vet starters in the NFL.  Maybe he just wants to die in Florida instead of AZ.

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Just watched Bruce's introduction and i have always liked him. If we didnt have McDermott i would want Arians. If he can get Jameis going they will be dangerous.

 

Really liked when he said the players are his system and is going to design it around them.

 

 

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On 1/8/2019 at 7:54 PM, LittleJoeCartwright said:

That was a short retirement .

Thanks. I don't understand all his retirements. Does he retire every time his starting QB retires?

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19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Sure Arians is a great HC, but when Palmer got to AZ, he had Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson on his offense as well.  That might have helped.

 

Nah Chris Johnson came later he was picked up off the street late into training camp as I recall. He did inherit Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald as his starting wide receivers so he wasn't without talent. 

 

I am not sure Jameis is salvageable at this stage but there is still a lot of talent in there and if anyone can do it I'd back BA to do it. The biggest issue in Tampa is that defense. Bowles is a good hire but he will need better players.

 

By the way my understanding in Cleveland is that once Arians knew Kitchens was a genuine contender for the job he asked for his name to be withdrawn. 

 

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah Chris Johnson came later he was picked up off the street late into training camp as I recall. He did inherit Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald as his starting wide receivers so he wasn't without talent. 

 

I am not sure Jameis is salvageable at this stage but there is still a lot of talent in there and if anyone can do it I'd back BA to do it. The biggest issue in Tampa is that defense. Bowles is a good hire but he will need better players.

 

By the way my understanding in Cleveland is that once Arians knew Kitchens was a genuine contender for the job he asked for his name to be withdrawn. 

 

 

True about Johnson.  and I forgot about Floyd. 

 

Then it's on the Browns for putting Kitchens at the top of that list when they could have had a guy like Arians. 

 

Bowles Jets D sucked.  Not sure how that will change in Tampa.

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