Cool Detailed Analysis - Zay Jones

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, Logic said:

I respect your take, and I respectfully disagree with it.

Zay Jones will be a Buffalo Bill in 2019. He's cheap labor that's trending up. Beane and McDermott mentioned him in the year-end press conference as a guy who looks to be coming into his own.

I don't think he'll ever be the dominant #1 wideout that Bills fans seem to want him to be. I DO think, though, that he can have a long and productive career as a possession receiver out of the slot and a security blanket for his quarterback. Now if only the Bills would wise up and start actually PLAYING him in the slot more often.

 

All good and yeah, the slot is where I said his ceiling is next year IMO as I just don't see how he has a good shot to start as WR1 or WR2 once we go out and acquire more WR's.  

 

As I mentioned, Foster has already passed him on depth chart, and they clearly are going to draft/sign/trade for at least one WR expected to be a starter.  That leaves that person and Foster as the favorites to start at WR next year.  So right now, Zay IMO is going to be competing to be the 3rd WR and he already has potential competition with the recent signing of Williams.  Now factor in that we likely add more WR's via FA/Trade/Draft and now he is competing with multiple WR's for the WR3/Slot role.  

 

Im not rooting against Zay, I have just lost faith that he can be a reliable and quality starter in this league.  There just isnt any facet of the game (YET as he can always get better) that he is particularly good at.  Watching him get manhandled in games like the Lions and Pats games was just hard to watch.  He doesn't "win" his routes often enough, has unreliable hands, doesn't make many contested catches, doesn't have a good catch radius, doesn't adjust or come back to the ball well, isnt great at getting separation, and doesn't have top end speed.  

 

So for me that is why I don't see Zay as a lock once he his lined up against better competition for that WR3/Slot spot.  Be great if he takes a step forward, but his performance this year for me was not good enough for me to feel his job is safe next year.

 

15 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Re-read the chart.  They had an identical catch percentage.  

 

This is an important, driving factor for Beane.  And it is something that is almost NEVER considered on this board.  

 

Well its not considered right now because we have no reason to focus on cheap labor with so much cap room and the need to spend a lot of it.  Now his cheap price tag was certainly a value for the Bills this past season with so much dead cap money, but next year that won't help save his job IMO.  So I believe Zay making his case for one of the top 3 WR's on the roster next year will come down to his ability to play well, not his price tag.  

Edited January 7, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good and yeah, the slot is where I said his ceiling is next year IMO as I just don't see how he has a good shot to start as WR1 or WR2 once we go out and acquire more WR's.  

 

As I mentioned, Foster has already passed him on depth chart, and they clearly are going to draft/sign/trade for at least one WR expected to be a starter.  That leaves that person and Foster as the favorites to start at WR next year.  So right now, Zay IMO is going to be competing to be the 3rd WR and he already has potential competition with the recent signing of Williams.  Now factor in that we likely add more WR's via FA/Trade/Draft and now he is competing with multiple WR's for the WR3/Slot role.  

 

Im not rooting against Zay, I have just lost faith that he can be a reliable and quality starter in this league.  There just isnt any facet of the game (YET as he can always get better) that he is particularly good at.  Watching him get manhandled in games like the Lions and Pats games was just hard to watch.  He doesn't "win" his routes often enough, has unreliable hands, doesn't make many contested catches, doesn't have a good catch radius, doesn't adjust or come back to the ball well, isnt great at getting separation, and doesn't have top end speed.  

 

So for me that is why I don't see Zay as a lock once he his lined up against better competition for that WR3/Slot spot.  Be great if he takes a step forward, but his performance this year for me was not good enough for me to feel his job is safe next year.

 

 

Well its not considered right now because we have no reason to focus on cheap labor with so much cap room and the need to spend a lot of it.  Now his cheap price tag was certainly a value for the Bills this past season with so much dead cap money, but next year that won't help save his job IMO.  So I believe Zay making his case for one of the top 3 WR's on the roster next year will come down to his ability to play well, not his price tag.  

 

I think you are getting too bogged down in terms like "WR1" and slot.  At the NFL level, coaches don't really think in those terms.  They put WRs all over the field.  They categorize WRs by their skill sets and role in the team.  Even the third WR on the depth chart plays well over 50% of the snaps, with the fourth guy still getting upwards of 20% of snaps.  Where they line up in a "base set" is irrelevant to playing time. 

 

We will obviously keep Foster, we will bring in a new guy with a high-ish pick or in FA, but after that it is all Zay.  He is the most senior WR on this team and has chemistry with Josh Allen.  He is a high pick that is still in the middle of his development phase. 

 

I appreciate all your arguments, I really do, but there is less than zero chance he is not on this team next year.  

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think you are getting too bogged down in terms like "WR1" and slot.  At the NFL level, coaches don't really think in those terms.  They put WRs all over the field.  They categorize WRs by their skill sets and role in the team.  Even the third WR on the depth chart plays well over 50% of the snaps, with the fourth guy still getting upwards of 20% of snaps.  Where they line up in a "base set" is irrelevant to playing time. 

 

We will obviously keep Foster, we will bring in a new guy with a high-ish pick or in FA, but after that it is all Zay.  He is the most senior WR on this team and has chemistry with Josh Allen.  He is a high pick that is still in the middle of his development phase. 

 

I appreciate all your arguments, I really do, but there is less than zero chance he is not on this team next year.  

 

All good, and get your side.  But here is my question...You think that after all the WR talk by both Beane and McD that they will only add 1 more WR this offseason?  In your opinion, did you feel we were 1 WR away from having a good WR group?  

 

Thats where we really differ.  If we ONLY add one more relevant WR via FA or Draft, then sure, I agree with you that Zay's roster spot is likely safe unless he has more offseason issues, or a bad camp.  But, I just don't think that McD and Beane feel we only need to add one WR in addition to Williams.  And Williams himself right now seems to be quite intriguing if his off field stuff is under control.  

 

I think its more realistic that there will be 3 new relevant WRs (one of which is Williams plus 2 more not yet on the roster) competing for significant playing time with both Foster and Zay come camp, and Foster has already passed Zay.  And like I said earlier, there isnt one part of the game anyone can honestly say that Zay excels at right now, so how will he do if competing against better competition for playing time is my big question.

Edited January 7, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good, and get your side.  But here is my question...You think that after all the WR talk by both Beane and McD that they will only add 1 more WR this offseason?  In your opinion, did you feel we were 1 WR away from having a good WR group?  

 

Thats where we really differ.  If we ONLY add one more relevant WR via FA or Draft, then sure, I agree with you that Zay's roster spot is likely safe unless he has more offseason issues, or a bad camp.  But, I just don't think that McD and Beane feel we only need to add one WR in addition to Williams.  And Williams himself right now seems to be quite intriguing if his off field stuff is under control.  

 

I think its more realistic that there will be 3 new relevant WRs (one of which is Williams plus 2 more not yet on the roster) competing for significant playing time with both Foster and Zay come camp, and Foster has already passed Zay.  And like I said earlier, there isnt one part of the game anyone can honestly say that Zay excels at right now, so how will he do if competing against better competition for playing time is my big question.

 

I think Beane is more likely to add a high-value and a low-value WR.  That low-value WR will not push Zay out.  People forget that before we drafted Zay, the Panthers (including Beane) were going to draft him.  I think Beane likes Zay.  Giving up on a second round pick that he wanted in the draft after two seasons (with #2 production) is highly unlikely. 

 

You have to take Beanes comments in context.  They got burned by Kelvin, had to cut Foster early, and were throwing together pieces through the remainder of the year.  WR obviously needs to be addressed, and they will want more out of Zay, but I just don't think they were criticizing Zay as much as they unit as a whole. 

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

On 1/3/2019 at 4:42 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Trading up for any non qb is probably stupid.  But if you honestly thought OBJ was a better receiver pre draft than Sammy, you’re a liar.  Sammy was one of the great college receivers ever:  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sammy-watkins-1.html

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/odell-beckham-jr-1.html

 

for the record, I loved Mike Evans. 

This is not an over statement. One of four college players in history to be named an All American as a true freshman and the ONLY receiver ever to be named as such. Coming out, he was leaps and bounds ahead of the class according to scouts; there was Watkins and then everyone else. 

[C.Biscuit97]

31 minutes ago, K-9 said:

This is not an over statement. One of four college players in history to be named an All American as a true freshman and the ONLY receiver ever to be named as such. Coming out, he was leaps and bounds ahead of the class according to scouts; there was Watkins and then everyone else. 

Thank you.  It’s the classic hindsight.  Sammy struggles with injuries, a bad throwing qb, and an outdated offense.  He was supposed to be Hopkins.  It never worked out that way, and you shouldn’t trade up for any position but qb.  

 

But pre draft, there was zero debate Sammy was the number 1 receiver (I was huge Evans guy though because I thought he made Manziel).

[ROCBillsBeliever]

On 1/3/2019 at 5:23 PM, TaskersGhost said:

 

How so?  

 

Jones was the 4th overall WR taken in the '17 Draft.  For a high 2nd-rounder much more is expected.  

 

5 WRs drafted after him have posted more yards, in all but one case significantly more yards than Jones.  

3 rookie WRs from this year's class posted more yards this season than he did.  They were drafted about where he went;  10 & 12 spots ahead and 4 behind.  

11 WRs from this year's class had more yards in their rookie seasons than Jones did.  Nearly half of them were round 3 and day-3 picks.  9 were drafted at positions later than his.  

 

The NFL has made it easier than ever, literally, for QBs and WRs to excel in the passing game.  This is why RBs have little value anymore as well.  

 

Meanwhile, Jones ranked 177th (out of 202) in catch % this season, well ahead of where he was last season.  Last season he was 210th out of 212 with only Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman behind him.  

 

He hasn't had a single 100-yard game in two seasons.  This past game was only his second game of over 70 yards and it too, like most of the most of the rest of his play, was in he equivalent of garbage time.  Even in this past game, 58 of hiis 93 yards and one of his two TDs came when the game was already over 35-17 in the 4th quarter.  He only had 3 catches for 35 yards and all of his drops in the first 3 quarters.  

 

If you look at his splits you'll see that he's a poster-boy for garbage time stats.  He was at EC too, that was easily seen, for anyone looking that is, well before that draft.  

 

Those are all facts.  

 

Isn't it simply possible that he was a bad pick at 36th overall and the staff misjudged the value in the NFL of a QB in college that also made a living, in a spread offense often featuring 5 WRs, in garbage time?  Because to me that's clearly the case and was upon drafting him.  All of that was out there for anyone that did the homework, which the team should have done.  

 

In order to be a starting WR in the NFL you have to be reliable, and there's absolutely nothing on record that even remotely indicates that Jones is reliable when the game is on the line or in the early stages.  This ain't college, there's no room for a spread offense like EC ran, perptually, and the talent that Jones is going against is far different than what he faced in college and he simply hasn't answered the bell like his draft peers have.  He doesn't beat anyone.  

 

He's a project, one that isn't worth the time and energy and that likely will never be more than a depth-caliber WR.  If McBeane treats him as one of two starters next season they do so at their own risk.  

Facts:

Peterman

Taylor

Anderson

 

All threw many passes to Zay.

 

Fact:

All threw many bad passes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/3/2019 at 12:50 PM, dneveu said:

Knock on JuJu coming out was speed, didn't seem to have enough coming out of his breaks.

Interested to see how he does if they actually do trade AB.  

Coming out AB was a highly productive undersized receiver who lacked physicality.  I think it may also have something to do with developing receivers, not just scouting them.

 

Yes.  And having a probable future HOF QB throwing to them gotta help.

[BakersBills]

4 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Re-read the chart.  They had an identical catch percentage.  

 

This is an important, driving factor for Beane.  And it is something that is almost NEVER considered on this board.  

 

 

Who cares, I watched them both play.

 

It’s an insult to moulds, Jones is 3 levels below him.

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

21 minutes ago, BakersBills said:

 

 

Who cares, I watched them both play.

 

It’s an insult to moulds, Jones is 3 levels below him.

 

 

 

Oh. You’re one of those posters. I’ll just move along. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I would keep Jones on a short leash, if he is still dropping passes and running sloppy routes then they should try and trade or relese him before the season starts. I honestly think he fills more of a 4th or 5th WR role. If he was good on ST he might have some value as a 4th WR but Jones is horrible on ST.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I would keep Jones on a short leash, if he is still dropping passes and running sloppy routes then they should try and trade or relese him before the season starts. I honestly think he fills more of a 4th or 5th WR role. If he was good on ST he might have some value as a 4th WR but Jones is horrible on ST.

Unless he breaks out next year, it’s going to hard to ever justify that trade up.  It’s just a bad move.  That said, it’s a sunk cost at this point so he just becomes a 3rd/4th: Josh Reed guy that has some value.

[Jay_Fixit]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:44 AM, freddyjj said:

I had JuJu in Rd 3 for Bills that Mock

Dude, we should re-name the board after you.

[TigerJ]

Zay's first year was a struggle for him.  There seemed to be some confidence issues.  He was much improved this past season, but he's still a work in progress.  It's not at all unreasonable to expect significant improvement going forward.  He does some things very well.

[BakersBills]

7 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Oh. You’re one of those posters. I’ll just move along. 

You can cherry pick all you want. 

 

Zay jones is mediocre until prove otherwise.

 

dude doesn’t show up when it matters.

[GETTOTHE50]

He did have that smooth moon walk move to get up though.

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 hours ago, BakersBills said:

You can cherry pick all you want. 

 

Zay jones is mediocre until prove otherwise.

 

dude doesn’t show up when it matters.

 

 

“Zay doesn’t play well in the big moments”

 

so you isolated discrete moments in a season to pass your judgment about Zay. 

 

Do you know what “cherry pick” means? Because that is the definition of cherry picking.

[DCOrange]

On 1/3/2019 at 1:44 PM, WMDman said:

I personally think Zay had a fine season and has been developing nicely, I look forward to next year when he is hopefully in the slot

 

The thing is I think he's probably a lot more comfortable in the slot and probably projects best playing in the slot moving forwards, but philosophically speaking, I feel like Daboll might prefer a short, quick slot WR like he had in New England rather than a more well-rounded but not particularly special in any category type like Zay. I think a guy like Adam Humphries or Cole Beasley would be a significant upgrade over Zay in the slot.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

We should be happy with the development of Zay Jones and Robert Foster. Your'e only as good as your QB and we had one of the worst QB situations in the league for the first half of last season. They're going to be much better next year.

[Billsfan1972]

Seen very little & I think the stats bare it out.

 

I hope he makes a huge jump in 2019, and then will come the question that seems to be the Bills bugaboo......  Paying players at skilled positions....