Fascinating about Josh Allen’s critics is they never played the position

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

17 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

Yes. You can’t criticuze Allen. But you can post positives with the addition of of course he needs to develop. It’s exaclty what’s happening here. 

Btw I like Allen.  Ive never posted anything against him. Weird ha? 

 

i don’t  need to answer your condescending questions. Yes you as well. 

oh mykidsdad, I mean ned  boy

[NickelCity]

13 minutes ago, VW82 said:

If you go back to the start of the season and add up all the throws where he made the right decision and just missed the mark, it's going to be a high number compared to the rest of the NFL.

 

You know, the attempts I've seen getting that info have been so flagrantly biased (both for and against) that I can't say with any certainty, but I'm not sure it's going to be a high number compared to the rest of the NFL. I just don't think his misses would be an outlier if we were able to document which throws missed the mark when he had an intended target. I use "able" because look at that throw he "missed" to Zay in the endzone where he expected Zay to stop and turn, when he instead kept running. A missed read by Josh, not an inaccurate pass, though. 

 

Either way, in my opinion completion percentage is a legit gripe, inaccuracy seems to be a case of poor correlation and word choice. 

[Bing Bong]

17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

That's not what's happening here.  If you actually read the posts almost all of Allen's supporters make it clear that he has a lot to work on and needs to improve his passing game.  The thing we react to is the mindless Allen hate that keeps resurfacing under the guise of "analytics".  This just seems irrational to me.

 

 

 

dude there's a thread complaining about QBR and how it's not a fair metric since Stafford has a much higher one than Allen, another thread championing "adjusted completion %" because Allen is ranked 10th, another saying he will be MVP next year, this thread saying analysts who aren't former players don't know anything, a thread saying we picked the right Josh (like it matters how crappy another quarterback is to measure Allen's ability), and my favorite a thread wowed that he's the #45 rushing Bill of all time. No wait my favorite is the "who's the JA of the defense we can draft" thread. These threads are useless haha.

 

We watch all the games. He passes the eye test, he has shown he can make all the throws good quarterbacks are expected to make. He's ran for a lot of yards. He's super promising.. duh. We're now desperately seeking for validation elsewhere, and complaining if we don't get it. Maybe the posts elsewhere are constructive but these threads are just mob mentality snowballing him into a god. 

 

I like the "Josh Allen Progression" thread. That has the posts you're talking about. Not the ones b****ing about how Sal (or whatever radio jockey of the day is annoying Bills fans with JA blasphemy) and how numbers are making Josh look bad except for when certain numbers make him look good! and these former PLAYERS (newsflash, they heap praise on every young QB in broadcast) know more than some nerd analyst! 

 

There's too much JA on my forum! Allen supporters can be objective in the right thread. But check out the first pages of the adjusted completion % thread and don't tell me it's a big JA love fest vilifying anyone who thinks differently.

 

I guess I'm being cranky about us being excited for Josh. I am over the moon. But I don't see a need to complain or vilify someone with differing opinions. I just think it's insecurity. Let's be confident that JA will show the world without a shadow of a doubt what we know and not have to look over our shoulder all the time about it!

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My god.  What a silly premise for a thread.  Since I played college football my opinion (it should  ) should count more than people who didn’t?  What a dumb statement.

 

jim kelly  wanted the Bills to draft Tim Tebow.  Michael Jordan is considered one of the worst owners in sports.  Belichick played D 3 football.  Polian played club football.

 

i know it is party time (and I’m happy) that we scored 2 tds to beat the lions.  But it’s amazing some of you don’t get why Allen was criticized as a prospect.  He wasn’t that good at Wyoming and these type of prospects fail all lthe time.  Let’s hope for the best but it’s way too early for a victory lap.  

 

Your post makes no sense and a little bit of sense all at the same time.  I mean you just compared guys like Belichick and Polian who spent their whole careers mastering and understanding every inch of football, to some journalists who haven't done even have 1% of the knowledge of those guys.  

 

No one said you need to have played the sport to be a coach or journalist.  But if you think even for a second these journalist know anything remotely close to what those ex players know then you are either gullible, foolish, or lying.  And not all ex players are going to be good scouts either, so pointing out Jordan was a bad GM does not mean Romo isnt a good analyst of QB's.  So there is literally no correlation.  

 

NO ONE PERSON will ever be right 100%, hell they wont even be right 50% of the time.  The best GM's in football draft more busts than hits over their career...why, because its impossible to predict the future.  To cite some miscues by Kelly or Jordan to somehow prove that they somehow dont know anymore than journalists do is utterly ridiculous.  You know who is wrong MORE than GM's though?  Journalists.  

 

So yes, having played the game, broke down film and played the position absolutely gives them a more qualified and skilled opinion.  So you are wrong there.  But where you make some sense is the point that being an ex-player doesn't automatically make them geniuses or right either.  ITS ALL OPINION, nothing more, nothing less.  But I will certainly weigh the opinion of an ex-player who sits down and watches tape on Allen more than a journalist who stat box checks to form an opinion.  Most those guys are NOT watching Josh Allen full game tape each week, where guys like Romo, Dilfer, etc get paid to do just that, know how to do it, and enjoy doing it.  Even if a journalist watched a full game on Allen, they have NO IDEA how to break that film down.  

 

Bottom line:  People with real film study experience know how to analyze a play to understand the result.  Journalist analyze the result with no depth of understanding of the circumstances that contributed to that result.  

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

To be a critic, no.  But to completely understand what it takes to be a QB and how to run an offense....you do.  

 

You are so wrong.  People like Bill Barnwell, Mike Schopp, or Cian Fahey have no clue what they are talking about.  If you think they are knowledgeable, you are fooling yourself 

 

False. Former QBs have one set of experience: theirs. Analysts, whose job is to understand and break down the play of QBs have watched thousands. Every time I hear somebody say I've been doing X for 25 years, as some sort of basis for a claim, I know there's a high chance something stupid is about to come out of their mouth. If QB's were so great at breaking down QBs, more of them would be coaches.

[Royale with Cheese]

18 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

You mean “the” Allen who shall never be criticized?  

 

You were the leader of the "Tyrod shall never be criticized" group.

[VW82]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

You know, the attempts I've seen getting that info have been so flagrantly biased (both for and against) that I can't say with any certainty, but I'm not sure it's going to be a high number compared to the rest of the NFL. I just don't think his misses would be an outlier if we were able to document which throws missed the mark when he had an intended target. I use "able" because look at that throw he "missed" to Zay in the endzone where he expected Zay to stop and turn, when he instead kept running. A missed read by Josh, not an inaccurate pass, though. 

 

Either way, in my opinion completion percentage is a legit gripe, inaccuracy seems to be a case of poor correlation and word choice. 

 

Having watched that throw 20+ times now, I disagree. Perhaps he did expect Zay to sit on the route but Josh still threw behind him even accounting for that. But even if you give him the benefit of the doubt on that one, there are so many to choose from on the year. 

 

I think any time the crux of your argument is you're smart and everyone else is stupid you're on shaky ground. For the record, I know what accuracy means, and I have a feeling Trent Dilfer knows better than most what accuracy means, and so when he says Josh has some issues to work out with his accuracy and his mechanics (on Russillo's podcast), I believe him, especially because it matches what I'm seeing as well (and again, what the adjcomp% numbers at least hint at). Oldmanfan is also making this claim (essentially that the rest of us are dumb and don't understand accuracy vs. precision), and so because a picture is worth a 1000 words here it is. Can we all agree that maybe the rest of us aren't saying he's inaccurate because we just don't understand the definition? I would categorize Allen on the year as low accuracy, low precision, but trending in the right direction on both. 

 

  

 

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by VW82

[without a drought]

This should rule out anyone here from voicing their opinions on Allen or any current or past QB.

 

If you think your view should be heard, send me your resume and I'll let you know if you're qualified.

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Having watched that throw 20+ times now, I disagree. Perhaps he did expect Zay to sit on the route but Josh still threw behind him even accounting for that. But even if you give him the benefit of the doubt on that one, there are so many to choose from on the year. 

 

I think any time the crux of your argument is you're smart and everyone else is stupid you're on shaky ground. For the record, I know what accuracy means, and I have a feeling Trent Dilfer knows better than most what accuracy means, and so when he says Josh has some issues to work out with his accuracy and his mechanics (on Russillo's podcast), I believe him, especially because it matches what I'm seeing as well (and again, what the adjcomp% numbers at least hint at). Oldmanfan is also making this claim (essentially that the rest of us are dumb and don't understand accuracy vs. precision), and so because a picture is worth a 1000 words here it is. Can we all agree that maybe the rest of us aren't saying he's inaccurate because we just don't understand the definition? I would categorize Allen on the year as low accuracy, low precision, but trending in the right direction on both. 

 

  

 

 

You're right, I shared this picture.  And Allen fits the high accuracy/low precision.  The vast majority of his throws are catchable balls, but could be more precise. In your own thread after the Lions game you could only point out two balls that were truly inaccurate.  So you cite data indicating he's accurate but use it to say he's inaccurate.  That is why you don't understand the term and why your posts can be discounted.  Because you come into the analysis with a foregone conclusion and try to fit your data to that preconceived conclusion.

[Bing Bong]

18 hours ago, BlueandRed said:

Let’s not put the horse before the Carriage.  

 

Yes. We are excited and what he is showing with no talent help around him. 

 

He needs more time to prove he is a franchise qb. 

 

Id say, be patient until end of next year. The negativity should end then, if he is the real deal. 

Perfect. My sentiments exactly.

[VW82]

15 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You're right, I shared this picture.  And Allen fits the high accuracy/low precision.  The vast majority of his throws are catchable balls, but could be more precise. In your own thread after the Lions game you could only point out two balls that were truly inaccurate.  So you cite data indicating he's accurate but use it to say he's inaccurate.  That is why you don't understand the term and why your posts can be discounted.  Because you come into the analysis with a foregone conclusion and try to fit your data to that preconceived conclusion.

 

Wrong. I said he had much better accuracy against the Lions both in that thread (only 3 bad throws out of 26) and in this thread. You've gone from claiming that I just don't understand the definition to literally putting words in my mouth. If you're going to comment, at least read the post. Don't make sh!t up!

 

Allen had some accuracy problems in the Jets game, and in several others this year. When you add it all up, I think he's been inaccurate compared to his peers. I'm fine with you disagreeing with that - I don't get what you're watching, but who cares. We're all Bills fans, right? Everyone's entitled to their opinion. This weird and ineffective attacking of other posters, telling them they're not seeing what they claim to see because they're too dumb to understand, and then completely misrepresenting their posts nonsense is getting tiresome.  

[NickelCity]

45 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I think any time the crux of your argument is you're smart and everyone else is stupid you're on shaky ground. For the record, I know what accuracy means, and I have a feeling Trent Dilfer knows better than most what accuracy means, and so when he says Josh has some issues to work out with his accuracy and his mechanics (on Russillo's podcast), I believe him, especially because it matches what I'm seeing as well (and again, what the adjcomp% numbers at least hint at). Oldmanfan is also making this claim (essentially that the rest of us are dumb and don't understand accuracy vs. precision), and so because a picture is worth a 1000 words here it is. Can we all agree that maybe the rest of us aren't saying he's inaccurate because we just don't understand the definition? I would categorize Allen on the year as low accuracy, low precision, but trending in the right direction on both. 

 

Would love to know what caused you to deduce the bolded. I also never implied that you didn't know what accuracy means, I just think (1) completion percentage is an extremely poor indicator of it, and (2) to my eye he has not been terribly inaccurate. Plenty of people disagree with me on the latter, I just don't think when they use completion percentage it bolsters their argument at all. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

Wrong. I said he had much better accuracy against the Lions both in that thread (only 3 bad throws out of 26) and in this thread. You've gone from claiming that I just don't understand the definition to literally putting words in my mouth. If you're going to comment, at least read the post. Don't make sh!t up!

 

Allen had some accuracy problems in the Jets game, and in several others this year. When you add it all up, I think he's been inaccurate compared to his peers. I'm fine with you disagreeing with that - I don't get what you're watching, but who cares. We're all Bills fans, right? Everyone's entitled to their opinion. This weird and ineffective attacking of other posters, telling them they're not seeing what they claim to see because they're too dumb to understand, and then completely misrepresenting their posts nonsense is getting tiresome.  

I'm sorry you find it tiresome but you refuse to understand the difference between accuracy and precision.  Some of the analysis on this will always be subjective; one person might say a pass is way off and another will say it was closer.  But confusing accuracy with precision is an important distinction.  It's not like Allen routinely misses guys by yards; he needs to work on his precision.

 

i agree everyone is entitled to their opinion and applaud that you break down every pass; that is a much better way of going at analysis vs. just looking blindly at some stat.  I do object to people misusing or overinflating stats to support an opinion though.  That's my background as a scientist I suppose.  I review tons of papers for journals and they commonly get rejected because of inappropriate stats or because of poor study design.  I see a lot of that in these Allen threads.

[Chicken Boo]

20 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Are you not excited from what you have seen from him so far?

 

Sure he has a few flaws, but I can’t remember being this optimistic about having a potential franchise QB

 

Speaking for myself, I actually like what I see and hope Allen keeps improving.  I will still criticize him when it's warranted. 

 

Thems the breaks.  Bills fans need thicker skin.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Chicken Boo

[VW82]

5 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Would love to know what caused you to deduce the bolded. I also never implied that you didn't know what accuracy means, I just think (1) completion percentage is an extremely poor indicator of it, and (2) to my eye he has not been terribly inaccurate. Plenty of people disagree with me on the latter, I just don't think when they use completion percentage it bolsters their argument at all. 

 

My apologies. You alluded to poor word choice which is what so many inaccuracy deniers (hah) seem to be doing, with many going so far as to outright say the rest of us don't know what the word means (see multiple examples in the this thread and others). By itself, raw completion percentage is a shaky argument. Looking at it and adjcomp%, and listening to experts talk about his accuracy, and watching the games...that's an educated opinion. I respect your opinion to disagree based on your own evidence. I would tend to think you're probably in the minority though obv that doesn't mean you're incorrect...but I think you are    

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

False. Former QBs have one set of experience: theirs. Analysts, whose job is to understand and break down the play of QBs have watched thousands. Every time I hear somebody say I've been doing X for 25 years, as some sort of basis for a claim, I know there's a high chance something stupid is about to come out of their mouth. If QB's were so great at breaking down QBs, more of them would be coaches.

 

Ok so let’s take QB’s out of the equation.  But what makes a great analyst is actual NFL experience - either as player, coach, or talent evaluator.  The OP point was the people who are heavily critical about Allen are the ones with ZERO experience analyzing NFL QB’s.  It’s a well-stated point - as Barnwell, Schoop, Ledyard, etc have never actually done ANYTHING in football.

 

See, I could LOVE the medical industry.  I watch ER on TV, all kinds of operations on YouTube, and have even read any medical journals.  Do you want me performing surgery on you?  No, probably not.  Why?  Because I’m not qualified.  

 

The people in the know, have tempered their analysis about Allen like many of us have.  It’s early to say if he’ll be good or bad.  We just don’t know.  Yet it doesn’t stop the clowns in the media from spouting off an uninformed opinion   AND it doesn’t stop foolish people from believing that these clowns actually know something about football.  They don’t 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Phil The Thrill

[Hebert19]

I did and I'm his biggest fan.  So that should help your cause. 

[VW82]

27 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm sorry you find it tiresome but you refuse to understand the difference between accuracy and precision.  Some of the analysis on this will always be subjective; one person might say a pass is way off and another will say it was closer.  But confusing accuracy with precision is an important distinction.  It's not like Allen routinely misses guys by yards; he needs to work on his precision.

 

i agree everyone is entitled to their opinion and applaud that you break down every pass; that is a much better way of going at analysis vs. just looking blindly at some stat.  I do object to people misusing or overinflating stats to support an opinion though.  That's my background as a scientist I suppose.  I review tons of papers for journals and they commonly get rejected because of inappropriate stats or because of poor study design.  I see a lot of that in these Allen threads.

 

Based on the way you've interpreted my posts, and the frequent and blatant misrepresentations of not only the work accumulated but also the general conclusions in them, I'd be terrified to have you review my paper. Hopefully your reading comprehension is better IRL.

 

I was completely up front with you about limitations to doing what I was doing, going through the throws individually and without proper comparison. The picture I posted illustrating accuracy and precision, which you claim you also posted, is something that I think a child could comprehend, and so even if there might have been confusion before (on your part) there shouldn't be any now. For you to continually go back there honestly makes me think you're actually just trolling to be a jerk, and so at this point, and with all due respect. I'm going to ask you to stop. I'm sorry I referenced you in the other post. I won't do that again.  

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by VW82

[row_33]

I refuse to broadcast my opinions in a radio or TV gig for under $2.5 million a year

 

 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Based on the way you've interpreted my posts, and the frequent and blatant misrepresentations of not only the work accumulated but also the general conclusions in them, I'd be terrified to have you review my paper. Hopefully your reading comprehension is better IRL.

 

I was completely up front with you about limitations to doing what I was doing, going through the throws individually and without proper comparison. The picture I posted illustrating accuracy and precision, which you claim you also posted, is something that I think a child could comprehend, and so even if there might have been confusion before (on your part) there shouldn't be any now. For you to continually go back there honestly makes me think you're actually just trolling to be a jerk, and so at this point, and with all due respect. I'm going to ask you to stop. I'm sorry I referenced you in the other post. I won't do that again.  

 

As I said I applaud your effort to break down each throw and while I may not agree on each interpretation that is a much better way to approach things.  I am not trolling by any means.  But because I do have I think a better overall idea of statistics than some here I try to point out the errors many commit in using them.  My intent is to be educational and if it comes across as confrontational that is not my intent.