Where are we at? Miracle Playoff run or does each win just ruin draft position?

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, dubs said:

 

Neither

 

probably finish about 6-10 or 7-9. Pick in the top third. Miss playoffs draft position is fine. 

 

I agree that's probably what happens.

 

But I think the question the OP asked was whether we should actively try to lose to improve draft position.

 

I agree.  Win at all costs, even if we aren't going to the playoffs.  For once, with a young QB, we can say winning in even a meaningless season (in terms of playoffs) is actually meaningful.

19 hours ago, matter2003 said:

There is no miracle playoff run, we are simply ruining draft position.

 

There is no carryover effect year to year in the NFL so any argument about building momentum for next year is garbage

 

bullcrap.

 

With these young players, it's important to win.  Draft position is largely meaningless as long as Beane keeps drafting well and we make good use of all that CAP money we're getting freed up this offseason.

12 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

 

I'd normally say the same thing but when you look at our schedule the only tough game remaining bis the Patriots... If we can just pull off that upset we are looking at a real playoff probability. The issue is the Ravens.  Even if we do run the table they have to lose 3 games even though we are only 2 games behind them due to there win against us. Not sure what happens with a 3 way tie however.

 

I think the Colts are the bigger obstacle.

7 hours ago, eball said:

The Bills are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 5 to go.  6-5 is 6th place.  Win out and I guarantee they make it.  There's only one game remaining on their schedule that, today, looks unwinnable, and we all know who it is, but if they somehow win the next three and are 7-7 heading to Foxboro all bets are off.

 

Colts and Ravens both beat Buffalo and are 6-5.

 

Both of those teams would need to go 2-3 or worse in their remaining 5 games.

 

I don't know how you can possibly think that's a guarantee.

Edited November 26, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[billsfan89]

23 hours ago, matter2003 said:

There is no miracle playoff run, we are simply ruining draft position.

 

There is no carryover effect year to year in the NFL so any argument about building momentum for next year is garbage

 

Players developing usually means you win some games, the Bill's sport 5 young starters on offense (Zay, Foster, Teller, Dawkins, and Allen) the Bill's are also sporting 6 young starters on defense (White, T.Johnson, Wallace, Shaq, Milano, and Edumonds) the defense also gives critical snaps to Phillips another young player. 

 

That's 11 out of 22 staters that are either first or second year players. Plus several other young players getting critical snaps on both sides of the ball. 

 

So yes there isn't really carry over momentum but young players gaining experience and developing positively is something that builds for next season.

[ComradeKayAdams]

16 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

 

I'd normally say the same thing but when you look at our schedule the only tough game remaining bis the Patriots... If we can just pull off that upset we are looking at a real playoff probability. The issue is the Ravens.  Even if we do run the table they have to lose 3 games even though we are only 2 games behind them due to there win against us. Not sure what happens with a 3 way tie however.

 

No, the real issue is the Colts. These guys have won 5 straight, have a franchise QB, and have a very easy remaining schedule. Someone please tell me where their minimum 3 losses are coming? At Jax, at Titans, at Texans, home against Cowboys, home against Giants. Maybe they lose to the Texans, but I don't seem them losing 2 additional games.

 

Here's where the playoffs stand: assume the 6 playoff teams as the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, and 9-7 Bills. The Pats aren't finishing 1-4 unless Brady gets injured. So all we have left is the final wildcard post. The 7 teams in the way of the Bills for that final wildcard spot:

 

1. Colts: biggest problem, as explained above. Must lose 3 more games.

2. Ravens: second biggest problem. Must lose 3 more games, but very possible. At KC, at LA Chargers, and then 1 more loss among 3 games of: at Atlanta, TB, Cleveland.

3. Bengals: must lose 2 more games. I'd say this is likely. How about losses at Pittsburgh and at LA Chargers?

4. Broncos: need any single additional loss to an AFC opponent. How about a loss to the LA Chargers at home? Their other 4 games are very easy, so hopefully they don't get hot.

5. Browns: any single loss will suffice. Very likely. Probably as early as this weekend vs Texans. Their final 3 games are teams on this list, so they are more like our allies than our foes at the moment.

6. Titans: we only need them to lose 1 more time, assuming they go on to lose to Texans tonight. Their next 4 games are very easy, but this is also not a good enough of a team to think they will not slip up at least once more. Their final game is against the Colts, but we most likely will need them to win that one.

7. Dolphins: no need to scoreboard watch with these guys, so long as we finish 9-7 and therefore sweep them.

 

So to summarize: if the Bills win Sunday while the Ravens lose in Atlanta and the Colts lose in Jacksonville....then it is fair to start taking the playoffs seriously.

[Bing Bong]

Just win baby. Let whatever happens happen. But let's give JA the keys to drive without worrying about a stupid overall pick position mid season. He's a rookie Quarterback, tanking is the last thing on his mind.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, MichaelAbdallah said:

 

No, the real issue is the Colts. These guys have won 5 straight, have a franchise QB, and have a very easy remaining schedule. Someone please tell me where their minimum 3 losses are coming? At Jax, at Titans, at Texans, home against Cowboys, home against Giants. Maybe they lose to the Texans, but I don't seem them losing 2 additional games.

 

Here's where the playoffs stand: assume the 6 playoff teams as the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, and 9-7 Bills. The Pats aren't finishing 1-4 unless Brady gets injured. So all we have left is the final wildcard post. The 7 teams in the way of the Bills for that final wildcard spot:

 

1. Colts: biggest problem, as explained above. Must lose 3 more games.

2. Ravens: second biggest problem. Must lose 3 more games, but very possible. At KC, at LA Chargers, and then 1 more loss among 3 games of: at Atlanta, TB, Cleveland.

3. Bengals: must lose 2 more games. I'd say this is likely. How about losses at Pittsburgh and at LA Chargers?

4. Broncos: need any single additional loss to an AFC opponent. How about a loss to the LA Chargers at home? Their other 4 games are very easy, so hopefully they don't get hot.

5. Browns: any single loss will suffice. Very likely. Probably as early as this weekend vs Texans. Their final 3 games are teams on this list, so they are more like our allies than our foes at the moment.

6. Titans: we only need them to lose 1 more time, assuming they go on to lose to Texans tonight. Their next 4 games are very easy, but this is also not a good enough of a team to think they will not slip up at least once more. Their final game is against the Colts, but we most likely will need them to win that one.

7. Dolphins: no need to scoreboard watch with these guys, so long as we finish 9-7 and therefore sweep them.

 

So to summarize: if the Bills win Sunday while the Ravens lose in Atlanta and the Colts lose in Jacksonville....then it is fair to start taking the playoffs seriously.

 

If the Bills, Colts, and Titans end up in a 3-team tie for the wildcard, the tiebreaker is divisional first, which means it goes to Colts vs Titans. If the Titans win that tiebreak, we make the playoffs.

[Bing Bong]

On 11/25/2018 at 9:08 PM, matter2003 said:

There is no miracle playoff run, we are simply ruining draft position.

 

There is no carryover effect year to year in the NFL so any argument about building momentum for next year is garbage

I really don't think the lockerroom gives a **** about their draft position. Pretty sure Allen wants to kick *** now and assume his GM is a good drafter to build him a better roster. Any player worried about ruining draft position isn't doing their job: to compete on Sundays and impress the FO rather than losing their jobs to a high draft pick because they're purposefully sucking for no benefit of their own.

 

Allen tanks to 0-16 for THE PROCESS and gets a #1 overall QB drafted over him. He ain't a loser.. wants to win football games and let the Eggheads upstairs deal with the mess he's wreaking what with winning and all.

 

Of course it carries over! What SB winning team ever said they weren't excited and confident their winning year after seeing themselves turn the jets on and learn how they can beat up NFL teams the year prior. What are they gonna to forget how they win games? Falling just short makes you hungrier you squandered a year with poor play to begin the season and hopeful your second half finish from the last year is what your team is actually capable of.

 

Bills teams Virtually always either suck all year or start out hot and Peter out. Let's see what a good second half of the season means for once.

Edited November 27, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[BruceVilanch]

I've never understood the logic on ruining draft position. The NFL is unique in the fact that you can find gamechangers throughout the first two rounds. Russel Wilson in the third (i know we aren't looking at QBS) OBJ I believe was a late round pick in the first, Tre White was 27th, Gronk went in the second rd I believe. Those are just examples off the top of my head. 

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

I really don't think the lockerroom gives a **** about their draft position. Pretty sure Allen wants to kick *** now and assume his GM is a good drafter to build him a better roster. Any player worried about ruining draft position isn't doing their job: to compete on Sundays and impress the FO rather than losing their jobs to a high draft pick because they're purposefully sucking for no benefit of their own.

 

Allen tanks to 0-16 for THE PROCESS and gets a #1 overall QB drafted over him. He ain't a loser.. wants to win football games and let the Eggheads upstairs deal with the mess he's wreaking what with winning and all.

 

Of course it carries over! What SB winning team ever said they weren't excited and confident their winning year after seeing themselves turn the jets on and learn how they can beat up NFL teams the year prior. What are they gonna to forget how they win games? Falling just short makes you hungrier you squandered a year with poor play to begin the season and hopeful your second half finish from the last year is what your team is actually capable of.

 

Bills teams Virtually always either suck all year or start out hot and Peter out. Let's see what a good second half of the season means for once.

 

21 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I've never understood the logic on ruining draft position. The NFL is unique in the fact that you can find gamechangers throughout the first two rounds. Russel Wilson in the third (i know we aren't looking at QBS) OBJ I believe was a late round pick in the first, Tre White was 27th, Gronk went in the second rd I believe. Those are just examples off the top of my head. 

 

The most idiotic part about the "ruining draft position" argument is that we (hopefully) already have our Franchise QB.

 

In our situation, you try to win, period.

 

Let your college scouts do their job and rake in a deserving All-pro CB at #27 or a freak talent super young LB at #16.

 

We're fine. Let Allen and the other young players build a culture of winning.

[GunnerBill]

There is no miracle playoff run... but a 7-9 finish, given the the paucity of offensive talent that we have fielded for most of the year, would be close enough to a miracle. 

[Warcodered]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

There is no miracle playoff run... but a 7-9 finish, given the the paucity of offensive talent that we have fielded for most of the year, would be close enough to a miracle. 

I doubt anyone here really thinks it's likely. Hell I think I saw somewhere that if they did manage to win out(that's a huge if) there chances would 30 some odd percent. People are just having fun while they're winning and there is "technically" a chance.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Warcodered

[Victory Formation]

Well, the only offensive position worth taking high in the draft this year is Jonah Williams and Greg Little. As we start to go further down the board you'll see Tyler Biadasz and Beau Benzschawel. Personally I'd rather pick later in the 1st for a nice OG/C prospect. I think that matters more than RT. I'd trade down to 24-25 and take one of the Wisconsin kids. No high end OL prospects but plenty of good ones RDs 2-3.

[May Day 10]

On 11/27/2018 at 4:56 AM, Jeetz1231 said:

I've never understood the logic on ruining draft position. The NFL is unique in the fact that you can find gamechangers throughout the first two rounds. Russel Wilson in the third (i know we aren't looking at QBS) OBJ I believe was a late round pick in the first, Tre White was 27th, Gronk went in the second rd I believe. Those are just examples off the top of my head. 

 

A year like last year, when you have top end talent tiered at the QB position, it is important (although I have no regrets about what played out breaking the drought).

 

The Cam Newton year comes to mind as well.  There was a ton of talent, and we missed on Newton and Von Miller and got Mr Fat Stuff.  AJ Green went next.  The Bills got some 'feel good' wins that meant zilch.

 

IMO, this draft it doesnt matter that much.  In fact, positional needs for the Bills are probably low top 10 or lower.  Allen looking improved/good and gaining confidence is worth way way more than a couple draft slots.

[swnybillsfan]

draft position is most important when trying to find that franchise qb. seeing as how we have swung on Allen, i think that rattling off a few wins, gaining confidence, and possibly a bit of chemistry/cohesion, would be a wonderful thing. also, if your young qb shows a bit of promise, as do the coaching staff and some young players, then that is good for attracting free agents. draft position be damned! (i kinda wanted to trade down if we drafted high anyway)

[bdutton]

To me its all about player development.  

 

If we win, great.  You are building a winning mindset.  If you don't win, you at least get vital experience for the younger players especially at QB/OL and DEF while having decent draft capital.

 

Next year will be win or bust.  We have lots of cap space to pay to bring in quality free agents at key areas of need.  We are building around Allen so we need to see him develop and if possible win doing it.

[Mat68]

With the team needs, finishing in the bottom of the league will not help this offense.  The Bills need an infusion of offensive talent.  The top half of the draft is pretty much all defense.  Picking from 10 to 15 would be ideal for the pick of o lineman or skill position player.  The bigger improvement this year by Allen just makes 2019 more promising.  

[FLFan]

We need to stack as many wins as possible.  While I do not buy in to momentum, I do buy in to teams learning what it takes to win.  Crucially important with the young core on this team, starting with Allen.  Winning breeds confidence and positive experience to be leaned on going forward.  Losing breeds, well, losing.

[zow2]

We have the QB so I don't care about draft position.  Hope to see Allen play well, the Offense continue to improve, The D play physical and dictate.  Win as many games as possible.  I'd love to see them win at Foxboro.  That would be awesome.

Edited November 28, 2018 by zow2

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

With the team needs, finishing in the bottom of the league will not help this offense.  The Bills need an infusion of offensive talent.  The top half of the draft is pretty much all defense.  Picking from 10 to 15 would be ideal for the pick of o lineman or skill position player.  The bigger improvement this year by Allen just makes 2019 more promising.  

 

I'm very early in my process I have 14 guys with "preliminary" 1st round grades so far based on TV watching only. 1 of those is an offensive player.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I doubt anyone here really thinks it's likely. Hell I think I saw somewhere that if they did manage to win out(that's a huge if) there chances would 30 some odd percent. People are just having fun while they're winning and there is "technically" a chance.

 

Yeah, that's because the 2 teams sitting at 7-5 and vying for the #6 seed both beat us.

 

And the Colts have been playing good football lately.

 

Root for the Jags this weekend and the Titans week #17 against the Colts and hope the Titans lose one--but ONLY one--more of their remaining games and that would take care of the tiebreaker with the Colts because they'd be eliminated by the Titans in any tiebreaking procedure, first.

 

The Ravens, now that I look at it, aren't losing any tiebreaker if we end up with the same record as them even with a 3rd team in there at 9-7.  Their conference record is too good.

[Bing Bong]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, that's because the 2 teams sitting at 7-5 and vying for the #6 seed both beat us.

 

And the Colts have been playing good football lately.

 

Root for the Jags this weekend and the Titans week #17 against the Colts and hope the Titans lose one--but ONLY one--more of their remaining games and that would take care of the tiebreaker with the Colts because they'd be eliminated by the Titans in any tiebreaking procedure, first.

 

The Ravens, now that I look at it, aren't losing any tiebreaker if we end up with the same record as them even with a 3rd team in there at 9-7.  Their conference record is too good.

The phish have a good start and are talented and underperforming on defense as well. I think we finish 3rd. But anywhere near .500 builds a great case and momentum for JA to ride.