John Kryk: Bills' Defense First Model is Backward in Today's NFL

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, blitzboy54 said:

Ha!

 

On pace as the WORST offense in NFL history but you disagree.  

 

Great is great. Mahomes may not have put up video game numbers but he is still great. No way you can justify passing on him.  Almost every prognosticator on the planet said to stay away from Allen but we traded up for him. No part of this article is wrong. Complete train wreck.

 

Every offensive player we shipped out is having a carrier year outside of Taylor. But you disagree.  

 

 

 

 

Give me a break....put Mahomes behind this line and give him no one to throw to...is he better than what the Bills have as of right now? Of course, but he also had a year with Reid and A. Smith tutoring him. So if that doesn't alter your perception, than you've simply decided to flog McD and Beane while ignoring context. In either respect...nothing else to be said. 

[mjt328]

31 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

By the time the offense is any good in this hypothetical rebuild, we'll have exactly zero edge pass rushers. You know, the most important position on defense.

 

Jerry Hughes is getting old and Trent Murphy will be in a hoverround. 

 

This whole damn rebuild consists of nothing but euphemisms for incompetence.

 

We are talking about the difference of ONE YEAR.

 

Focus on the offense in 2018.  Focus on the offense in 2019.  It doesn't matter.

We were starting a rookie QB this year.  We weren't going to be good, no matter what we did. 

The worst four offenses in the NFL are Buffalo, Cleveland, Arizona and the NY Jets.  Guess what they all have in common?

 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, mjt328 said:

 

We are talking about the difference of ONE YEAR.

 

Focus on the offense in 2018.  Focus on the offense in 2019.  It doesn't matter.

We were starting a rookie QB this year.  We weren't going to be good, no matter what we did. 

The worst four offenses in the NFL are Buffalo, Cleveland, Arizona and the NY Jets.  Guess what they all have in common?

 

They all drafted bad quarterbacks.

[Jrb1979]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

They all drafted bad quarterbacks.

Maybe but those teams aren't on pace to be the worst offense in a long time. It may be lack of talent in the Bills but other teams manage to scheme recievers open. 

[mjt328]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

They all drafted bad quarterbacks.

 

Almost all quarterbacks are BAD as rookies.  Jared Goff was awful his first season, and he now runs the best offense in the entire NFL.

 

The biggest complaint I keep hearing is that Beane didn't surround Josh Allen with tons of offensive weapons as a rookie.

But even if you surround a rookie QB with talent (see Dak Prescott for example) - he EVENTUALLY needs to prove he can succeed in the NFL on his own merits.

 

This team isn't built for now.  It's being built for 2019, 2020 and beyond. 

So quit trying to judge this team NOW.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Almost all quarterbacks are BAD as rookies.  Jared Goff was awful his first season, and he now runs the best offense in the entire NFL.

 

The biggest complaint I keep hearing is that Beane didn't surround Josh Allen with tons of offensive weapons as a rookie.

But even if you surround a rookie QB with talent (see Dak Prescott for example) - he EVENTUALLY needs to prove he can succeed in the NFL on his own merits.

 

This team isn't built for now.  It's being built for 2019, 2020 and beyond. 

So quit trying to judge this team NOW.

 

That all sounds nice.  However we listen to a HC in McDermott who continually talks of running the ball and being tough because of Buffalo weather.   Never have I heard him talk of a high powered offense that forces defenses to be on their heels because of explosive play potential.   He seems philosophically out of step with the modern NFL.

[Lurker]

42 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Thats the way the league is going. Why is it that Bills fans from the Rockpile days yearn for smash mouth pound the rock football. 

 

Because 'score-a-TD-every-drive' football is BORING...    

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Almost all quarterbacks are BAD as rookies.  Jared Goff was awful his first season, and he now runs the best offense in the entire NFL.

 

The biggest complaint I keep hearing is that Beane didn't surround Josh Allen with tons of offensive weapons as a rookie.

But even if you surround a rookie QB with talent (see Dak Prescott for example) - he EVENTUALLY needs to prove he can succeed in the NFL on his own merits.

 

This team isn't built for now.  It's being built for 2019, 2020 and beyond. 

So quit trying to judge this team NOW.

 

 

I'm of the OPINION that none of these rookie QB's are going to pan out. That's an opinion I'm entitled to hold.

 

I was, however, being glib in my response. And I don't agree that almost all rookie quarterbacks are BAD. Most of the good ones are just below average.

 

For every Jared Goff, there's 100 Kyle Boller's.

[Rockpile233]

I’m disgusted by the offense and, what I perceive to be, extremely poor planning relative to Josh Allen’s development. With that being said I’m sure they will use newly freed funds and draft capital to upgrade the offensive personnel this offseason. I think they run out of excuses if things are not radically improved next season.

 

What is really bothering me though is the subject of this thread in general. Sure they have loads of rescources this offseason, but nothing gives me confidence they have the vision or coaching to build an offense that wins today. Unless McDermott is feeding misinformation on his guiding philosophies, he believes in the run game, field position, hard defense, etc. Basically what won yesterday.

 

It’s hearing him talk that has me very pessimistic with this regime and making this year seem a waste rather than a rebuild.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Rockpile233

[CuddyDark]

I disagree with this. I don't think it's backward, it's just hard to build. Just as hard as landing a great QB. Teams have done it. Sea. Minn. Balt. Pitt. Cincy. If they're going for a power defense and 20 passes type team they are closer to that style than having a great passing offense with a great pocket passer.

[Chris66]

The new rules changed the landscape. Its no different than what the nhl went through a few years ago. Teams were building big heavy teams. Nhl changed some rules and now you dont need those guys anymore.

[ctk232]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's hard to win if you're the "worst" on either side of the ball, but if you're talking top 5 O + bottom 5 D vs bottom 5 O + top 5 D the team with the top offense is winning a lot more often than the team with the top D in 2018. 

It's kind of funny to mention that - I've mentioned a few times two of my mates from undergrad are bucs fans and we all convene remotely on sundays to collectively grieve about our teams (other party is a Jets fan). But the topic gets mentioned almost weekly that the Bucs and Bills are exact opposites of each other, yet very comparable. The Bucs have an offense with, albeit, Fitz at QB but still right sight better than our current stable of QBs, but absolutely no defense. The way we act about our offense, Bucs fans are acting equally so about their Defense. It's a pretty pathetic defense to say the least, as are some of the comments. And we all know what the Bills have. 

 

I always say I'd take the Bucs situation over the Bills any day in those conversations, as it's at least fun to watch. But what's funny is they've won 3 games to our 2. And while they have a bye week on us, the end result isn't all that different. Now the Bucs don't have a top 5 offense, but top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense only get you so far until your offense just can't keep up anymore. Case example: the jags made it to the conference championship on the backs of a defense last year - I mean, Blake Bortles? Really? Does anyone really think it was Bortles that got the Jags that far last year? 

 

The only real difference the switched scenarios would have here is that it'd be an easier pill for us to swallow every week watching the Bills, and maybe we have one more win than we do. But in reality, and quite obviously, you need both to compete - while it's just simply easier for offenses to move the ball in the current NFL the actual reality of that translating into results of W's v. L's is varied thanks to teams like the Jags. While they are fewer and far between, defense is not irrelevant to having success in today's NFL and this whole thread is a year too early. Let's talk about the offense when we've actually built the damn offense...it doesn't matter where we start until we end up where we've intended - and no GM, no matter how bad, intends to only have half of a football team.

Edited November 6, 2018 by ctk232

[Chris66]

29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

We are talking about the difference of ONE YEAR.

 

Focus on the offense in 2018.  Focus on the offense in 2019.  It doesn't matter.

We were starting a rookie QB this year.  We weren't going to be good, no matter what we did. 

The worst four offenses in the NFL are Buffalo, Cleveland, Arizona and the NY Jets.  Guess what they all have in common?

 

And the one that hires a new offense oriented hc will have a better chance to succeed.

[ctk232]

40 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

We are talking about the difference of ONE YEAR.

 

Focus on the offense in 2018.  Focus on the offense in 2019.  It doesn't matter.

We were starting a rookie QB this year.  We weren't going to be good, no matter what we did. 

The worst four offenses in the NFL are Buffalo, Cleveland, Arizona and the NY Jets.  Guess what they all have in common?

 

So while I agree to a point, you have to keep in mind that while there is definite correlation there, you're implying causation. You can create lists to support your beliefs as much as you want: mike tomlin, marvin lewis, dan quinn, ron rivera, AND bill belichick all DCs before their success, John Harbaugh was a ST coach, just to name a few.

 

You can also create a list of offensive minded coaches currently struggling to counter on the other end as well: Jason Garrett, Adam Gase, Pat Shurmur, even Kyle Shanahan who we seem to love after one game by Mullens, and Dirk Koetter.

 

Point is there's a lot that goes into an HC being successful, and it is true that a defensive minded coach is likely not going to have the best offensive mind, but that isn't a blanket argument you can use to discredit an HC of any background. 

Edited November 6, 2018 by ctk232

[C.Biscuit97]

Like I can’t believe this even needs to be stated.  McDermott is a dime a dozen nfl head coach.  But much like Dick Jauron, he would be best if was the head coach of a team with a franchise qb.  He would be fine in that role.

 

but to give a guy with his idea of nfl football complete power over this franchise is kinda insane.

[Cash]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

We are talking about the difference of ONE YEAR.

 

Focus on the offense in 2018.  Focus on the offense in 2019.  It doesn't matter.

We were starting a rookie QB this year.  We weren't going to be good, no matter what we did. 

The worst four offenses in the NFL are Buffalo, Cleveland, Arizona and the NY Jets.  Guess what they all have in common?

 

 

Do you really think the offense can go from worst in modern NFL history to good (or even mediocre) in just one year? I think that realistically, we're looking at a bottom 5 or bottom 10 offense next year, even if the Bills do a good job rebuilding it in the offseason. 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Almost all quarterbacks are BAD as rookies.  Jared Goff was awful his first season, and he now runs the best offense in the entire NFL.

 

Goff's turnaround coincided with a coaching change. Do you think he would be doing this well if Fisher was still his HC?

 

For the record, I still don't think McD should be fired this year. But he shouldn't feel comfortable, either. Presiding over the worst offense in league history should make anyone's seat warm. 

[mjt328]

34 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

Do you really think the offense can go from worst in modern NFL history to good (or even mediocre) in just one year? I think that realistically, we're looking at a bottom 5 or bottom 10 offense next year, even if the Bills do a good job rebuilding it in the offseason. 

 

It happens all the time.

Every year, you can can find teams (offense or defense) that go from the bottom of the NFL to the Top 10.

 

SO MUCH hinges on the development of Josh Allen. 

He was very raw coming out of college.  Right now, he's struggling with pretty much everything - reading a defense, holding the ball too long, throwing mechanics.  Even slight improvements in any of these areas can make a world of difference

 

 

34 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

Goff's turnaround coincided with a coaching change. Do you think he would be doing this well if Fisher was still his HC?

 

There are many factors  in Goff's improvement.

McVay's system helped.  Adding receiving weapons helped.  Improving the offensive line helped.

But don't discount how much better Goff himself became as a QB.

 

The Rams were the perfect example of an offensive turnaround.

I think a team like the Chicago Bears is more of a realistic goal.  They have improved drastically with some solid (but unspectacular) free agent additions, and marginal improvement from their second year QB.

 

 

34 minutes ago, Cash said:

For the record, I still don't think McD should be fired this year. But he shouldn't feel comfortable, either. Presiding over the worst offense in league history should make anyone's seat warm. 

 

I don't get the impression McDermott is "comfortable."

He wants to win.  He wants to get better.

 

Even if he didn't expect this level of bad from his offense, I think he knew they would struggle.

That's why he talks about being run-heavy and relying on the defense.  Not because it's a long-term strategy.  But because he knew it would be necessary with a rookie QB.

 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

We'll see how much he means this in the offseason. 

 

 

[Beast]

Whatever the flavor of the year is, so goes the “trend”.

 

If anyone here tells me that the Seahawks team that won the SB earlier this decade couldn’t win it today, I’d say you are nuts.

 

There are, and always will be, more than one way to win a Championship.

[Fadingpain]

On 11/6/2018 at 1:22 PM, Lurker said:

 

Because 'score-a-TD-every-drive' football is BORING...    

You and maybe seven other people in the world think that way.

 

The Rams/Saints game is widely regarded as the crowning jewel of the NFL season so far and is precisely the brand of football the NFL, the teams, and 99.999% of all fans want to see in 2018.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion of it as being boring, but please acknowledge that your opinion is irrelevant amidst today's landscape and furthermore, please be aware that the team which can always get that last score in a wild shootout is the team that is going to win most of the time in today's league.

 

If a team doesn't have one hell of a good passing QB and a creative offense, it's going nowhere.

 

I'll make a bold prediction:  when the season is over for all but 4 teams in January,  you'll see that the teams still playing football can all score points at will.

 

You know, playing "boring" football.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Fadingpain

[JohnC]

On 11/6/2018 at 10:18 AM, Mr. WEO said:

This "break, don't bend" D is not so great.   7th worst in points allowed.

One of the reasons the defense has allowed so many points is because it is on the field so much. Our offense is a three and out  machine not giving it a break. Upgrading the offense will upgrade the defense. If this regime doesn't primarily focus on upgrading the offense this offseason then it will be making a big mistake. We have the cap and draft capital to get it done. I'm confident that it will be done because it would be irrational not to do so. 

[greeneblitz]

This thinking by McDermott is the number one reason I believe that they should just fire the guy, no matter that I still think he's a good coach in most other ways, as long as he's stubborn and stuck on defense 1st, we'll always be losers under him.

[Bing Bong]

Dude's an idiot. any team dominant on one side of the ball and competent on the other is a good team. We're not either right now but rule changes don't preclude an elite defense from having an equal effect on the game. The other team is playing the same rules. So if it's so easy to March up and down the field we're going to be able to March up and down and have a competitive advantage in stopping the other team from doing so quite as much. 

 

It's just relative to the league any given season if the best defense gives up 30 points a game and the league is averaging 50 then ya don't have to score 50 on a bad offensive night. You nab the easy 35 if rules begin to get that whack on offense. Eagles D did just enough to stop Brady to win with a clear competitive advantage compared to Pats that couldn't stop Nick Foles. The Jags played shootouts after the Bills because they were playing jacked up offenses with poor defense.

 

The teams that win Superbowls are dominant on one side and top 10 on the other. Doesn't matter which way but it's recently been the better defensive teams that win anyway! Like every recent year! 

 

Eagles D > Pats D, Pats D > Falcons D, Broncos D > Panthers D, Seattle D > Broncos D, Giants D > Pats D.

 

Doesn't matter if it's a shootout, Nick Foles beat Brady because they were subpar defending him. Jags had it on Steelers. If it's so easy to score that Bortles can do it, his defense is just as closely matched against a great offense yet slightly gave the edge to win. Falcons shootout likewise. Just have to be better than the team on one side of the ball than they are on your side.

Edited November 10, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[greeneblitz]

On 11/6/2018 at 1:05 PM, LSHMEAB said:

They all drafted bad quarterbacks.

idiotic thinking like this is why the Bills haven't drafted and developed a top rookie QB in over 30 years.

 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, greeneblitz said:

idiotic thinking like this is why the Bills haven't drafted and developed a top rookie QB in over 30 years.

 

Really? It's my fault? Sheesh. I had no idea I had that kind of power! 

 

I need to re-consider everything.

[stuvian]

Kryk assumes that the way things unfolded was the way it was intended. Pegs was not going to let an outgoing GM make a franchise QB decision. The success of Mahomes does not mean Allen is a failure. 

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, JohnC said:

One of the reasons the defense has allowed so many points is because it is on the field so much. Our offense is a three and out  machine not giving it a break. Upgrading the offense will upgrade the defense. If this regime doesn't primarily focus on upgrading the offense this offseason then it will be making a big mistake. We have the cap and draft capital to get it done. I'm confident that it will be done because it would be irrational not to do so. 

 

The D is only 16th in the NFL at forcing 3 and outs.  They need to become a 3 and out machine.

 

Last week, the D was on the field for only 26 minutes.  27 points.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The D is only 16th in the NFL at forcing 3 and outs.  They need to become a 3 and out machine.

 

Last week, the D was on the field for only 26 minutes.  27 points.

The defense is playing on a team that can't score. The offense is historically bad. They are on the field much more than normal. It is wearing them down. Snapshot stats don't tell the full story. Trust your eyes and use common sense. 

[Perry Turtle]

13 hours ago, stuvian said:

Kryk assumes that the way things unfolded was the way it was intended. Pegs was not going to let an outgoing GM make a franchise QB decision. The success of Mahomes does not mean Allen is a failure. 

Whaley didn't make a single pick in 2017, it was all McDermott.  Whaley stuck around playing the role of scouting director, providing data to McDermott to make decisions.

 

Allen could be successful, but he was also much more expensive.  The Bills offense could use a couple of extra 2nd rounders on the roster right now.

 

In the end, if you want to build your team around great QB play, you need some one other than a defensive minded Head Coach overseeing his development.

[stuvian]

8 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Whaley didn't make a single pick in 2017, it was all McDermott.  Whaley stuck around playing the role of scouting director, providing data to McDermott to make decisions.

 

Allen could be successful, but he was also much more expensive.  The Bills offense could use a couple of extra 2nd rounders on the roster right now.

 

In the end, if you want to build your team around great QB play, you need some one other than a defensive minded Head Coach overseeing his development.

You are right about Allen being more expensive than Mahomes at 22 overall. 

[26CornerBlitz]

This is a continuation of the same theme.

 

 

[ctk232]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

This is a continuation of the same theme.

 

 

So I get the obvious: McD is a defensive minded HC, and we have a vastly more talented and better performing defense than we do an offense. While this all would certainly make sense to coin this team a "defense first team" in the immediate moment, I'm not sure it's entirely accurate. 

 

Clearly with McD's experience, it was always likely that the defense would begin to take shape before the offense would. But considering we are no where near the end of this rebuild/process, and the offense is to supposedly be addressed this offseason, why put a label on what this team is now versus what it may be in two years? Given that amount of time Allen could potentially develop into a top passer, we could have a whole new OL and WR corps, Shady will be gone not too long from now and hopefully we have a sustainable replacement for him at RB, but we could just as likely have one pass heavy offense once all is said and done. The skeptics in us all have reasonable doubt for why this may not happen - but it seems odd to say that this is exactly what is the long term plan, and not just the short term strategy while they attempt to build out the offense.

 

In a nutshell, if the plan was to rebuild both sides of the ball, and our defense was simply in a better position to be addressed roster/talent wise than the offense was (lacking a QB) long term, and we had just drafted our first round rookie QB that needs to be developed, I might also adopt a defense first strategy for the first year or two while he develops and they can fully build an offense around him.

 

If we still see that philosophy then, that might be justification for these kinds of articles.