PlayoffsPlease Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 There have been 11 different teams to win the Super Bowl since the 2001 Superbowl. This table shows the tenure of the head coach, the GM and the QB before winning their first championship. There are two outliers, Bill Cowher getting 14 years before winning a championship, and Peyton Manning taking 9 years as QB for the colts. If those two are removed, the average HC tenure and QB tenure before winning is almost exactly three seasons. Important note, this is to win the super bowl, not to become "competitive" . The facts strongly suggest that if a team is not even competetive after three years of a head coach/ QB combo, it is not likely that combo is going to ever win a championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 about a week and a half... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, no name said: about a week and a half... ...so we're 3 1/2 weeks overdue then, right?............ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasovon Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 I think looking at teams around the league like the Eagles, Rams, Bears, maybe vikings; you can build a championship calibre team in 2 seasons. Season 1: Get QB in draft and then give him some on field experience, clear cap space Season 2: go hard after FA to surround your young gun and try to make a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 It's not about how long - it's about getting it right. The average time a QB gets to show he's the franchise QB is in the 3-4 year mark and also the head coach gets that much time. It's a constant starting over that makes it appear it's taking that much time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, White Linen said: It's not about how long - it's about getting it right. The average time a QB gets to show he's the franchise QB is in the 3-4 year mark and also the head coach gets that much time. It's a constant starting over that makes it appear it's taking that much time. I’d argue that it’s not constantly starting over, but starting over and continually failing .The amount of time it’s taking is also real, not just an apparition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Wentz was drafted in 2016, if that's who you're using there. McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020. They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP. They will address O as much as possible next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COTC Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 (edited) 3 years Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. Edited October 20, 2018 by COTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, TPS said: Wentz was drafted in 2016, if that's who you're using there. McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020. They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP. They will address O as much as possible next year. Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach. He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used. But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. 35 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...so we're 3 1/2 weeks overdue then, right?............ I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response. The OP is simply a chart of data. Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach. He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used. But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response. The OP is simply a chart of data. Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. As you can tell, I wasn't sure. It does matter if you're talking about building from scratch and drafting your own QB, as the Bills are doing. Appreciate the data though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 It doesn't really take as long as some Bills fans think. And while on the topic, it helps that winning an NFL championship is probably the easiest championship to win in N. American major league sports. A Stanley Cup being by far the hardest. You really don't need to get on much of a roll or have much of a hot streak to suddenly find yourself in the AFC championship game, or the Superbowl, or as the Superbowl champion. Any of which would be an incredible feat around WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Statistic analysis. Take away the 30% of the data that does not fit my narrative goal for reason. Then show the stats clearly back my narrative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: It doesn't really take as long as some Bills fans think. And while on the topic, it helps that winning an NFL championship is probably the easiest championship to win in N. American major league sports. A Stanley Cup being by far the hardest. You really don't need to get on much of a roll or have much of a hot streak to suddenly find yourself in the AFC championship game, or the Superbowl, or as the Superbowl champion. Any of which would be an incredible feat around WNY. Harder to make the playoffs though compared to the NBA and NHL. Also, a hard cap makes it harder to buy a championship team like you often can in baseball and to a lesser extent basketball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach. He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used. But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response. The OP is simply a chart of data. Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. ...congratulations on STILL being able to comprehend it......quite impressive IMO............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 It depends on the process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Soon as you get a good QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Not great at math, can someone crunch the numbers for the average if you don’t remove the 2 outliers mentioned? Also, what about personnel variables as in, a franchise type QB versus a Trent Dilfer type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, iinii said: It depends on the process. ...OR....2099 whichever wins out first............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Not a good idea to ask Bills fans that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: There have been 11 different teams to win the Super Bowl since the 2001 Superbowl. This table shows the tenure of the head coach, the GM and the QB before winning their first championship. There are two outliers, Bill Cowher getting 14 years before winning a championship, and Peyton Manning taking 9 years as QB for the colts. If those two are removed, the average HC tenure and QB tenure before winning is almost exactly three seasons. Important note, this is to win the super bowl, not to become "competitive" . The facts strongly suggest that if a team is not even competetive after three years of a head coach/ QB combo, it is not likely that combo is going to ever win a championship. Thanks for taking the time to do this. It's an interesting concept to examine. A few things I would like to point out however: 1. Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis. There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 2. The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL. For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league. Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 3. I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire. The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more). However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together. My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild. The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5. It's way too early to know anything. The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season. They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league. One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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