highest percentage of passes dropped -

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Richard Matthews is known for solid hands. He's there. But rumor is that he and Terry R don't see eye to eye.

[Bing Bong]

6 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

I really don't understand the K.Benjamin  thing and probably never will...

You should! That's his career. I wasn't aware Buffalo magically makes you catch better 

[Buddo]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

What about Nate's?

 

Allen has played the whole year.

 

 

 

Well, Nate mostly throws to the opposition, so I'm not sure his part in this, is that significant.

 

Against the Chargers, there were some tough balls to catch, that better receivers should catch.  Against the Vikes, there should be no excuses - just about every ball was well placed to be caught easily, on all the drops.

[Rookie84]

11 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Boo this guy!

Just Joshing around man, lol.

 

Seriously though, I'm sure this all levels out as the season goes on and more chemistry is developed between Allen and the WRs.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Rookie84
Spelling

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/9/27/17911480/the-bills-have-the-highest-percentage-of-passes-dropped

Does anyone know what the heck is going on?

Holy freakin: CRAP!!!

I really don't understand the K.Benjamin  thing and probably never will...

 

I don't think the KB thing is a thing.  Look it up - since a rookie, he's been a 50% of targets caught kind of guy.  Last game, he was a 62% guy.  That's good for KB. 

He's not truly a #1.  Others have pointed out, he's used to being the guy who takes advantage of the fact that the #1 corner is covering somebody else.  So for a #2 WR who historically only catches 50% of the targets he gets, he's kind of doing as expected.  Beane may have traded for him hoping he'd take a step given the chance, so far he hasn't, but that was a hope, not a reasonable expectation for a guy now in his 5th season.

 

With the caveat that targets are not drops:

Week 1 10 receptions out of 27 targets, 37.0%

Week 2 12 receptions out of 22 targets, 54.5%

Week 3  11 receptions out of 17 targets, 64.7%

 

So at least part of what's going on:

We had a horrible first game where the only thing our guys were able to catch in the Baltimore rain was a cold

We had a blow-out second game where we were slinging it and taking some marginal shots

We had a third game where we got out to a lead early, had no need to take high-risk shots, and our catch % wasn't that remarkable

 

I think if it were broken down game by game, you'd find the drops track with the overall catch % - horrid the first 6 quarters, unremarkable (good or bad) the second 6 quarters.

 

Which team gonna show up in Green Bay tomorrow, can't tell you.

 

10 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Richard Matthews is known for solid hands. He's there. But rumor is that he and Terry R don't see eye to eye.

 

I wondered about that. 

The evidence presented is that he didn't like Terry R's play calling as OC of Tenn.  Well, neither did Tenn

Terry R isn't calling plays here.

 

Seems like they should at least talk to him.  I would think, though, that wanting to see a bit more of what Allen is like as a QB might factor into it.

I'm sure he'd prefer to go to someone more established.

 

 

[Doc]

I'd like to know the actual number of drops Josh has had from his WR's.  As it stands right now, he's 39/70 (55.7%).  Three drops gets him to 60%.  Eight drops gets him to 67.1%, which is about league average.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Insult? I called you a genius. 

You took everything I wrote in the first post literally, why change it up now? 

Oh... probably because you knew exactly what I meant in my original post but had to take the opportunity to agitate instead of have a grown up discussion. Speaks to your character.

 

Dude, you used the word "genius" sarcastically.  Cowboy up, don't weasel.

 

Free clue: you're talking to a guy who has been paid money by NFL teams for college scouting reports.  He knows something.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Doc said:

I'd like to know the actual number of drops Josh has had from his WR's.  As it stands right now, he's 39/70 (55.7%).  Three drops gets him to 60%.  Eight drops gets him to 67.1%, which is about league average.

 

There's an interesting meta-issue behind that "average completion" number.

 

Last year the league average (of the 32 QB with the highest number of passing attempts) was under 63%, 62.7 to be exact.  This year, it's currently running higher, at 65%. 

 

Is it going to stay higher because of the new QB hit penalties, or will there be some "regression to the mean" as the season wears on?

 

As far as Allen, he's gone from 40% to 54% to 68% completions over the last 3 games, so I think it's probably fair to say there's been more to it than drops.  Learning to take what the D is giving him and get the ball out quickly instead of going for the game-changer on every throw is part of it.   Not having to play against the clock and throw his way out of a deficit is likely part of it too.

 

 

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's an interesting meta-issue behind that "average completion" number.

 

Last year the league average (of the 32 QB with the highest number of passing attempts) was under 63%, 62.7 to be exact.  This year, it's currently running higher, at 65%. 

 

Is it going to stay higher, or will there be some "regression to the mean" as the season wears on?

 

 

 

I wonder if this has to do with early-season conservative play-calling or, perhaps, more checkdowns early in the season.  I think 65% would be a high average, as 60% seems to be the unofficial "line" between good/bad for many people (fans).

[BarleyNY]

I notice that Cleveland is second on the list. Both teams made a change at QB from one with a lesser arm to one with a stronger arm (much more so with Allen).  In addition to the change in velocity of the throws the WRs have to adjust to the new QBs haven’t had much of a (any?) chance to work with them. Things should get better with practice. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I wonder if this has to do with early-season conservative play-calling or, perhaps, more checkdowns early in the season.  I think 65% would be a high average, as 60% seems to be the unofficial "line" between good/bad for many people (fans).

 

It's a fair question.  You'd recognize a bunch of the top names - Brees, Carr, Goff, Cousins, Rivers - and say "yep, them guys good"

Some are newbies to a list like that (even if not to the NFL) - Fitzpatrick, Trubisky, Mahomes

Others, I wonder if checkdowns are it - Tannehill, Manning, etc.

 

I never looked, but it's possible that other years have started out hot and seen regression to the mean.

I think the necessary completion percentage to be good has crept up over the last 5 years or so, though. 

[jethro_tull]

18 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

been saying this since training camp confirmed by the desperation move to pick up corey coleman-

The Bills have (1) legitimate starting wide receiver and he ain't that good.  The rest are not starting NFL quality receivers and most of them would need a stretch to call them legit backups.  

But- when we do develop or acquire some good ones- LOOK OUT!  

 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/9/27/17911480/the-bills-have-the-highest-percentage-of-passes-dropped

 

Does anyone know what the heck is going on?

 

Holy freakin: CRAP!!!

 

I really don't understand the K.Benjamin  thing and probably never will...

 

 

 

 

 

[The Wiz]

55 minutes ago, Doc said:

I'd like to know the actual number of drops Josh has had from his WR's.  As it stands right now, he's 39/70 (55.7%).  Three drops gets him to 60%.  Eight drops gets him to 67.1%, which is about league average.

From the Vikings game I could count 3 although some would argue Foster's drop as a tough catch vs a drop.

 

I think there were 2 drops in the LA game. 

 

Don't remember much of the Baltimore game since I didn't really watch much after the first half.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

From the Vikings game I could count 3 although some would argue Foster's drop as a tough catch vs a drop.

 

I think there were 2 drops in the LA game. 

 

Don't remember much of the Baltimore game since I didn't really watch much after the first half.

 

My opinion of what seems like a dropped ball never seems to match the ESPN guys scoring it so I don't try

[Sky Diver]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My opinion of what seems like a dropped ball never seems to match the ESPN guys scoring it so I don't try

 

I think some people confuse real football with Madden. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

I think some people confuse real football with Madden. 

 

Undoubtedly, but in this case, I think the difference lies in the instructions given to the ESPN scorers: Drop are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort" and "Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion"

 

In other words: in real football (not Madden) many of the catches good NFL WR make would not be scored as "drops" if they weren't hauled in.

 

If you have a former NFL QB who pulls no punches commenting the game and saying the ball was perfectly thrown, the WR needs to make that catch in "real football" or he'll be "NFL" (not for long)

[Sky Diver]

I get a chuckle when some folks think that catching a 60 yrd pass when the receiver is running full speed is easy, or when an NFL receiver misses such a pass it’s because he can’t track a ball or he has poor hand eye coordination.

 

The greatest receiver of all time had many horrible drops.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Sky Diver

[The Wiz]

50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My opinion of what seems like a dropped ball never seems to match the ESPN guys scoring it so I don't try

It's hard to judge for sure.  Same as if a defender makes a hell of a play to rake the ball out.  Do you call that a drop or a great defensive play?  Not really asking just kind of saying two people could see it either way.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

19 hours ago, Buddo said:

I think it’s a combination of not especially good receivers,  and Allen’s arm. 

 

 

....Benjamin's "Robert Royal Hands Transplant" is the real culprit...............

[Sky Diver]

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....Benjamin's "Robert Royal Hands Transplant" is the real culprit...............

 

Benjamin can’t separate and he doesn’t seem to have much desire to fight for the ball. His problem seems to be a lack of motivation.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Sky Diver said:

 

Benjamin can’t separate and he doesn’t seem to have much desire to fight for the ball. His problem seems to be a lack of motivation.

 

...but his mouth sure as hell is workin' well with his "Cam yaps".......I'm an old school crustacean and despise yipsters like this who are non-performers........and in a contract year with absurd WR money being thrown around, the "Intel chip between his ears" has a definite malfunction......let 'em hand out Gatorade......oh wait, he'll drop THAT too...SMH......

 

[The Wiz]

10 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

I get a chuckle when some folks think that catching a 60 yrd pass when the receiver is running full speed is easy, or when an NFL receiver misses such a pass it’s because he can’t track a ball or he has poor hand eye coordination.

 

The greatest receiver of all time had many horrible drops.

 

 

Easy, no.  The only job he has on the team because he doesn't play special teams, yes.

 

And yes, the greatest receiver of all time had a bunch of drops.  He's still the greatest receiver of all time.

 

Foster is JAG at this point and will be gone if he doesn't start catching those passes.

[Sky Diver]

15 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Easy, no.  The only job he has on the team because he doesn't play special teams, yes.

 

And yes, the greatest receiver of all time had a bunch of drops.  He's still the greatest receiver of all time.

 

Foster is JAG at this point and will be gone if he doesn't start catching those passes.

 

Disagree. Very few receivers would even be in a position to attempt to catch some the passes Allen and Foster didnt connect on.

 

And Foster plays special teams.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Sky Diver

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Foster plays special teams.

Nothing to say about the rest?

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Nothing to say about the rest?

 

About what? It often takes a receiver two or three years before they are productive. Look at Eric Moulds, for example.

 

You expect Foster to be All-Pro after 3 games?

[Augie]

Has anyone suggested bringing Peterman back to improve this statistic? He throws a much softer ball that is far easier to catch. Does it matter which team catches the ball? 

 

 

 

.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Augie

[Scott7975]

22 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Disagree. Very few receivers would even be in a position to attempt to catch some the passes Allen and Foster didnt connect on.

 

And Foster plays special teams.

Very few?  There are receivers all over the league catching deep balls.

[Sky Diver]

Allen wasn’t even taking first team snaps in preseason. It will take some time to develop chemistry with his receivers.

 

No patience here.

[The Wiz]

Just now, Sky Diver said:

 

About what? It often takes a receiver two or three years before they are productive. Look at Eric Moulds, for example.

 

You expect Foster to be All-Pro after 3 games?

Not at all.  I expect him to catch balls that hit him in the hands when he is able to beat defenders deep.

[Sky Diver]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Very few?  There are receivers all over the league catching deep balls.

 

Foster has elite speed and he’s able to get off the line of scrimmage. His ability to separate has been impressive.

Just now, The Wiz said:

Not at all.  I expect him to catch balls that hit him in the hands when he is able to beat defenders deep.

 

I guess you need to have patience and lower your expectations for a first year player.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Foster has elite speed and he’s able to get off the line of scrimmage. His ability to separate has been impressive.

 

I guess you need to have patience and lower your expectations for a first year player.

I expect a WR to catch balls (Not just Foster, all of them).  What expectation for a WR is lower than that?

[GoodHands15]

Chris Simms onSimms and Lefkoe made a point on last nights pod to point out Foster as a guys to keep an eye on. His big takeaway from film review was how consistently Foster was taking the top off.

Edited September 29, 2018 by GoodHands15

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, GoodHands15 said:

Chris Simms onSimms and Lefkoe made a point on last nights pod to point out Foster as a guys to keep an eye on. His big takeaway from film review was how consistently Foster was taking the top off.

 

That’s pretty obvious if you have watched any of the games.

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Allen wasn’t even taking first team snaps in preseason. It will take some time to develop chemistry with his receivers.

 

No patience here.

 

He has to start to catch perfectly thrown deep balls, not every one but some of them.

It's what he is getting paid to do.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

About what? It often takes a receiver two or three years before they are productive. Look at Eric Moulds, for example.

 

You expect Foster to be All-Pro after 3 games?

 

...at the same time and if he wasn't a 'Bama boy, would you be in a UDFA WR's corner as a starter who struggled with hand/eye coordination?........if you EVER want to gain ONE OUNCE of credibility around these parts (probably could care less), put aside your abysmal "Bama homerism and objectively analyze.....if for one damn second a UDFA player from any other school was a starter and struggled with fundamentals of hand/eye coordination, I'd bet the farm you'd be a charter member of the "TBD One & Done Gang" calling for his immediate head.....deny the charade and we'll know the validity of your stance and posts......PERIOD...........

 

 

DRAFT ANALYSIS:

Weaknesses

• Short strider with longer torso
• Production over four seasons was abysmal
• Never came close to reaching athletic potential and struggled to find meaningful snaps until senior season
• Drifts towards coverage out of route stems
• Football instincts are below average
• Converts on a low percentage of opportunities relative to his position
• Gives away pattern breaks down the field allowing for easier coverage
• Falters in his stack and track on deep throws
• Fumbled three times on 37 touches over last two seasons

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...at the same time and if he wasn't a 'Bama boy, would you be in a UDFA WR's corner as a starter who struggled with hand/eye coordination?........if you EVER want to gain ONE OUNCE of credibility around these parts (probably could care less), put aside your abysmal "Bama homerism and objectively analyze.....if for one damn second a UDFA player from any other school was a starter and struggled with fundamentals of hand/eye coordination, I'd bet the farm you'd be a charter member of the "TBD One & Done Gang" calling for his immediate head.....deny the charade and we'll know the validity of your stance and posts......PERIOD...........

 

 

DRAFT ANALYSIS:

Weaknesses

• Short strider with longer torso
• Production over four seasons was abysmal
• Never came close to reaching athletic potential and struggled to find meaningful snaps until senior season
• Drifts towards coverage out of route stems
• Football instincts are below average
• Converts on a low percentage of opportunities relative to his position
• Gives away pattern breaks down the field allowing for easier coverage
• Falters in his stack and track on deep throws
• Fumbled three times on 37 touches over last two seasons

 

Do you think the Bills' coaches cared what college he went to when they put him on the roster?

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Build the offensive line in FA next year.

Get a playmaker WR priority #1 in the draft.

Give Allen the tools he needs and we could be looking at something special for the future.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Do you think the Bills' coaches cared what college he went to when they put him on the roster?

 

 

...no but you sure as hell do with obnoxious subjectivity.....I'm just wasting time and valuable bandwidth for others who choose to OBJECTIVELY discuss/debate....

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Do you think the Bills' coaches cared what college he went to when they put him on the roster?

 

 

What Oldtimer and others (including myself) are saying is this.....................

 

IF your boy Foster was on the Buffalo Bills practice squad

 

AND there was another UDFA that has had the EXACT season so far as Foster (7 targets 2 catches for 30 yards, with that big drop)

 

YOU would be screaming for the Bills to drop that UDFA in favor for the Foster on the Practice Squad.

 

You know and we know you would.  That is blind "homerism".

Edited September 29, 2018 by ColoradoBills

[Sky Diver]

5 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...no but you sure as hell do with obnoxious subjectivity.....I'm just wasting time and valuable bandwidth for others who choose to OBJECTIVELY discuss/debate....

 

How objective is it to list Foster's weaknesses, but not his strengths?

 

If my assessment is so far off, why is he in the roster? Are the Bills' coaches Alabama homers too?

Edited September 29, 2018 by Sky Diver