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Peterman will never live down the 5-pick half . . .


Dr. K

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12 hours ago, B Fan in LA said:

I would be very interested in seeing some sort of evidence to support this claim, that Eric Wood publicly said he made an error.

This is the first I've heard this...........not saying you're wrong............just don't remember ever seeing it.

 

It was in one of the posts made at the time of the game.  I'll try to find it in the archives.  Not making this up, I swear.

 

Now whether one believes it, or thinks Wood was publically covering for his brother lineman, that's another issue.

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57 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INTs in a game last year, too. Two of them were run back for TDs. 

 

Should he have been sent packing to never play again?

 

If you go back and look, I posted a list containing  many examples of QBs who had 5+ INTs in a game. It happens. It happens to Super Bowl MVPs and it happens to 5th round rookies in their 1st ever start. Get over it. 

 

Tyrod Taylor had multiple games last year with less than 100 yards passing going into the 4th Q. Were you thinking he should be out of the league for those unacceptable performances? Or because he didn't turn the ball over, those abysmal passing days were ok with you?

 

 

This is ridiculous, but I’ll play. 

 

Narrow that list down to 5 picks in the first half, IF he played the second, how many more would he have had?

 

(hypothetical) 2,3 maybe 4 more. That would of make 7-9 picks in that game. How many successful  qbs have done that?

 

 Big Ben is a very talented, yet lazy QB. He is already a hall of famer, with effort he could of been goat. There is no comparison, no he obviously should not of been sent packing. 

 

In real time, Peterman panics. 

 

 

We all know TRod scored points and helped tremendously with his legs, because of him, we were #1 in rushing for two years straight. His yards came elsewhere. We will miss Trod. 

Edited by COTC
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6 hours ago, COTC said:

 

This is ridiculous, but I’ll play. 

 

Narrow that list down to 5 picks in the first half, IF he played the second, how many more would he have had?

 

(hypothetical) 2,3 maybe 4 more. That would of make 7-9 picks in that game. How many successful  qbs have done that?

 

 Big Ben is a very talented, yet lazy QB. He is already a hall of famer, with effort he could of been goat. There is no comparison, no he obviously should not of been sent packing. 

 

In real time, Peterman panics. 

 

 

We all know TRod scored points and helped tremendously with his legs, because of him, we were #1 in rushing for two years straight. His yards came elsewhere. We will miss Trod. 

 

Hypothetically, he could have thrown 8 more INTs in the 2nd half, or 10 or 0. Hypothetically, what if he came back in the 2nd half and tossed 5 TDs? 

 

How many successful QBs have thrown 5 TDs in a half after throwing 5 INTs? (See how the 'hypothetical' game works?)

 

The point is that if it can happen to an established, veteran, SB-winning QB -- it can absolutely happen to a 5th round rookie forced into starting his first game on the road because the previous starter was incapable of running a passing offense. 

 

Tyrod scored points, yes. Usually between 3 and 17 of them over the course of an entire game.

 

As for his running ability, Tyrod was a defensive coordinator's dream matchup -- of course, no DC would never admit it, but it's true. Look at it this way... a good QB would generally be around 285 passing yards and 2-3 TDs on a given Sunday. Tyrod's production generally looked more like 160 yds passing, 35 yds rushing, and 1 TD. I'm no genius, but 195 total yards is far better than 285. One TD is also far better than allowing 2 or 3. If I'm a DC, I'll take Tyrod running around and producing FGs & punts all day long as opposed to someone who is capable of lighting up my secondary for 4 TDs. 

 

Also, if I'm a DC, I also know that once my team has a lead of 7 or more... its game over for Tyrod. He's not bringing his team back from behind, ever. 

 

We'll miss Tyrod the person... but definitely not Tyrod the QB.

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Lucky for Peterman, it's a "what have you done for me lately" kind of league. The narrative can quickly change after a couple of wins. At least locally. National talking heads will use it as a foundation for describing how terrible or how great he is as time passes. "The Bills should've known after those 5 interceptions..." or "Remember when Peterman threw 5 interceptions in a half? We don't. He's been great! Who would've thought!"

 

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
22 hours ago, B Fan in LA said:

I would be very interested in seeing some sort of evidence to support this claim, that Eric Wood publicly said he made an error.

This is the first I've heard this...........not saying you're wrong............just don't remember ever seeing it.

 

It was in one of the posts made at the time of the game.  I'll try to find it in the archives.  Not making this up, I swear.

 

Now whether one believes it, or thinks Wood was publically covering for his brother lineman, that's another issue.

 

The issue I find most troubling about your comment, that Eric Wood took the blame for a bad snap count, is that it presumes

there was only one occurrence where a Charger was penetrating the backfield unabated, or nearly unabated.

 

If you saw the game, or just watch the Joey Bosa Video on Youtube, you will see multiple occurrences of Chargers running past

our O Line with little or no contact. For example, in the video, if you go to the 1:00 minute mark you will see Mills not lined up against

anybody, probably out of position, and 2 Chargers come unabated. It doesn't look like there's a snap count issue on that play.

 

The at the 1:18 mark, Bosa again comes nearly unabated save for a brief patty cake from Mills. Look at the expression Shady makes

after the play. WTF ? Is this the play Wood blows the snap count ?

 

At the 1:30 mark, Bosa lines up against Dawkins, and again a patty cake hand slap.

 

How lame is this O Line ?

 

If they weren't pissed off at McD for starting Peterman, they're just horrible at what they do.

Yet they are still with the team........... and starting.......... and making terrible plays.....and getting paid A LOT of money.

 

 

Edited by B Fan in LA
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What is the probability of  Peterman being another Jeff Tuel vs being another Tom Brady ?    Just going by odds of a 5th round QB being a productive starter(and not considering preseason stats ) ,  it seems foolish to think Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season in actual games--especially now that the OL is much worse.

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19 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

What is the probability of  Peterman being another Jeff Tuel vs being another Tom Brady ?    Just going by odds of a 5th round QB being a productive starter(and not considering preseason stats ) ,  it seems foolish to think Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season in actual games--especially now that the OL is much worse.

 

probably 100% he is going to be closer to Tuel than Brady career-wise

 

actually I can say that for most QBs in the NFL, some not even born for another 20 years

 

 

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3 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

What is the probability of  Peterman being another Jeff Tuel vs being another Tom Brady ?    Just going by odds of a 5th round QB being a productive starter(and not considering preseason stats ) ,  it seems foolish to think Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season in actual games--especially now that the OL is much worse.

 

I'm sure there were guys like you saying the same thing about the 'Ol Gunslinger after his first two appearances at QB. Favre's stat line from those two games? 8-18 for 73 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs. In fact, his first two NFL completions were to members of the other team's defense. 

 

Now, it's highly, highly, highly unlikely (bordering on "impossible") Peterman has anywhere near the career Brett Favre had. However, is it really foolish to think that Peterman could become the next Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick... or dare I say it, a better passing version of Tyrod Taylor? Those guys are all elite backups/fringe starters in the NFL. No reason NP couldn't hit that level and have a nice career. 

 

You said it's foolish to think that Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season... for that to be true, you would have to claim that most (if not all) players DON'T improve from their rookie year, and that what you see in the beginning is the ceiling. It's an absolutely ridiculous statement to make -- especially considering how the kid has performed this preseason. 

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

yeah but I think Manning played in other games as well..

 

Exactly the point -- even the GOATs have bad days, but we didn't make a final verdict on their careers because of it. Give Peterman a chance to rebound and see how he does. So far, it's trending in the right direction, but it could absolutely fall apart once the games are real. 

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3 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

Tyrod scored points, yes. Usually between 3 and 17 of them over the course of an entire game.

 

not sure where you get this from. Bills were top 1/3 in the league in scoring in 2015 and 2016.  Then something changed and scoring went way down. It wasn't Hotrod.

 

Shady also dropped 1.4 yards from his ypc last year btw.

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5 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

 

Exactly the point -- even the GOATs have bad days, but we didn't make a final verdict on their careers because of it. Give Peterman a chance to rebound and see how he does. So far, it's trending in the right direction, but it could absolutely fall apart once the games are real. 

 

Actually I think these "even HOFers have a (similarly) bad day" arguments are really not worth making.  You are only comparing a nobody like NP to the absolute worst performance of a great QB to find a similarity.  Therefore, it's not a really powerful point to make.

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1 hour ago, B Fan in LA said:

The issue I find most troubling about your comment, that Eric Wood took the blame for a bad snap count, is that it presumes

there was only one occurrence where a Charger was penetrating the backfield unabated, or nearly unabated.

 

No, it does not presume anything.  It offers Wood's explanation for the play where Bosa, mic'd up, says "he didn't try to block me at all"

 

If you observed last Sunday's game, you will see numerous instances where a Bengal was penetrating the backfield unabated, or nearly unabated.  Do you attribute this to some conspiracy theory that the line was upset at Allen getting the start? 

Maybe they just suck as a line when faced with a stout D.

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12 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

I'm sure there were guys like you saying the same thing about the 'Ol Gunslinger after his first two appearances at QB. Favre's stat line from those two games? 8-18 for 73 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs. In fact, his first two NFL completions were to members of the other team's defense. 

 

Now, it's highly, highly, highly unlikely (bordering on "impossible") Peterman has anywhere near the career Brett Favre had. However, is it really foolish to think that Peterman could become the next Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick... or dare I say it, a better passing version of Tyrod Taylor? Those guys are all elite backups/fringe starters in the NFL. No reason NP couldn't hit that level and have a nice career. 

 

You said it's foolish to think that Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season... for that to be true, you would have to claim that most (if not all) players DON'T improve from their rookie year, and that what you see in the beginning is the ceiling. It's an absolutely ridiculous statement to make -- especially considering how the kid has performed this preseason. 

 

 

 

 

Exactly the point -- even the GOATs have bad days, but we didn't make a final verdict on their careers because of it. Give Peterman a chance to rebound and see how he does. So far, it's trending in the right direction, but it could absolutely fall apart once the games are real. 

 

preseason is a key word here.

 

Below is a list of top performers from 2017 preseason based on QB rating.  

 

 

Jacoby BrissettJ. Brissett NE 62 41 66.1 465 7.5 4 6.5 1 1.6 45 4 22 103.2
Jimmy GaroppoloJ. Garoppolo NE 63 44 69.8 463 7.3 3 4.8 1 1.6 38 4 18 100.2
Jake RudockJ. Rudock DET 56 37 66.1 380 6.8 3 5.4 1 1.8 29 2 18 95.8
Stephen MorrisS. Morris IND 56 38 67.9 399 7.1 1 1.8 0 0.0 51 2 10 94.3
Sean MannionS. Mannion LA 76 49 64.5 490 6.4 2 2.6 0 0.0 38t 2 15 91.4
Brandon AllenB. Allen JAX 58 38 65.5 516 8.9 3 5.2 3 5.2 43t 1 5 89.4
Brett HundleyB. Hundley GB 76 48 63.2 482 6.3 3 3.9 1 1.3 38 11 99 88.8
Jameis WinstonJ. Winston TB 69 47 68.1 495 7.2 0 0.0 1 1.4 29 4 26 82.7
Matt SimmsM. Simms ATL 77 44 57.1 613 8.0 1 1.3 1 1.3 65 9 63 81.8
Nate SudfeldN. Sudfeld WAS 56 33 58.9 360 6.4 0 0.0 0 0.0 31 3 14 78.0
Nathan PetermanN. Peterman BUF 79 43 54.4 453 5.7 1 1.3 0 0.0 28 4 18 75.6
Matt McGloinM. McGloin PHI 109 76 69.7 581 5.3 1 0.9 3 2.8 38 1 6 74.0
Kellen MooreK. Moore DAL 59 32 54.2 392 6.6 1 1.7 1 1.7 46 1 13 73.6
Joshua DobbsJ. Dobbs PIT 64 38 59.4 406 6.3 2 3.1 3 4.7 58t 6 43 68.9
Christian HackenbergC. Hackenberg NYJ 74 42 56.8 372 5.0 2 2.7 2 2.7 26 9 59 68.1
A.J. McCarronA. McCarron CIN 66 40 60.6 440 6.7 0 0.0 2 3.0 31 3 25 67

 

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I hope he never lives it down.  It provides the narrative pre-requisite and a marvelous first act to "The Nathan Peterman Story," the magical (but true) tale of courage and redemption, as the once-maligned QB rises from the ashes to become the G.O.A.T.

Coming soon to a screen near you.

Edited by Blue on Blue
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Just now, Blue on Blue said:

I hope he never lives it down.  It provides a marvelous first act to "The Nathan Peterman Story," the magical (but true) tale of courage and redemption, as the once-maligned QB rises from the ashes to become the G.O.A.T.

Coming soon to a screen near you.

 

24862622_1579648978789132_56256321914614

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46 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

What is the probability of  Peterman being another Jeff Tuel vs being another Tom Brady ?    Just going by odds of a 5th round QB being a productive starter(and not considering preseason stats ) ,  it seems foolish to think Peterman will perform any better than how he did last season in actual games--especially now that the OL is much worse.

 

Last preseason, Peterman was 43 of 79, 54% completion for 113 YPG.

This year for 3 games, Peterman is 33 for 41, 80.5% completion for 143 YPG.

(per NFL.com  stats)

 

There are two kinds of statisticians - Baysian statisticians and the other kind :).  The former include all available information into their calculation of odds - which would include preseason stats.  Yes, overall, the odds of a late round QB succeeding in the NFL are poor, but that's quite a preseason improvement between last year and this.  I'd like to see the odds on 5th round picks that are given a chance and show that kind of improvement between their 1st and 2nd season.

 

While I'm no way a Peterman fan, I can't understand the reluctance to give the man props for the way he's played through TC and preseason.  My main concern about Peterman is whether he's yet learned to recognize his limitations, throw the ball away, and live to play another down.  Because he's spent parts of preseason throwing against next month's burger flippers, that remains TBD in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

not sure where you get this from. Bills were top 1/3 in the league in scoring in 2015 and 2016.  Then something changed and scoring went way down. It wasn't Hotrod.

 

Shady also dropped 1.4 yards from his ypc last year btw.

You see the pattern right?   The scoring and yards per season kept dwindling.   Teams learned how to defense against him.    Make him a QB was the phrase often spoken by the opponents defenses. 

 

yeah, blame Shady.  

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Last preseason, Peterman was 43 of 79, 54% completion for 113 YPG.

This year for 3 games, Peterman is 33 for 41, 80.5% completion for 143 YPG.

(per NFL.com  stats)

 

There are two kinds of statisticians - Baysian statisticians and the other kind :).  The former include all available information into their calculation of odds - which would include preseason stats.  Yes, overall, the odds of a late round QB succeeding in the NFL are poor, but that's quite a preseason improvement between last year and this.  I'd like to see the odds on 5th round picks that are given a chance and show that kind of improvement between their 1st and 2nd season.

 

While I'm no way a Peterman fan, I can't understand the reluctance to give the man props for the way he's played through TC and preseason.  My main concern about Peterman is whether he's yet learned to recognize his limitations, throw the ball away, and live to play another down.  Because he's spent parts of preseason throwing against next month's burger flippers, that remains TBD in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

This is a fair position on Peterman.

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28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Last preseason, Peterman was 43 of 79, 54% completion for 113 YPG.

This year for 3 games, Peterman is 33 for 41, 80.5% completion for 143 YPG.

(per NFL.com  stats)

 

There are two kinds of statisticians - Baysian statisticians and the other kind :).  The former include all available information into their calculation of odds - which would include preseason stats.  Yes, overall, the odds of a late round QB succeeding in the NFL are poor, but that's quite a preseason improvement between last year and this.  I'd like to see the odds on 5th round picks that are given a chance and show that kind of improvement between their 1st and 2nd season.

 

While I'm no way a Peterman fan, I can't understand the reluctance to give the man props for the way he's played through TC and preseason.  My main concern about Peterman is whether he's yet learned to recognize his limitations, throw the ball away, and live to play another down.  Because he's spent parts of preseason throwing against next month's burger flippers, that remains TBD in my opinion.

 

Bravo, well stated!!    (and yeah I know you weren't a big fan ;))   I've been trying to inflect that on the TBD doubtful  this past month. 

 

It is a 50/50 deal.  He'll either suck (more if that's even possible by some), or he'll prove to be adequate, maybe adequate enough for another team to garner interest. 

 

38 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

preseason is a key word here.

 

Below is a list of top performers from 2017 preseason based on QB rating.  

 

Where are the preseason stats for you know who?  

 

They were as horrific as they were in 4 games last season.  under 50 rating. (the higher one) 

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

You see the pattern right?   The scoring and yards per season kept dwindling.   Teams learned how to defense against him.    Make him a QB was the phrase often spoken by the opponents defenses. 

 

yeah, blame Shady.  

We scored more points in 2016 than 2015 though. 20 more points, 109 fewer yards. Then we got Dennison and scoring dropped by 97 points and yards dropped by 824...

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12 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

You see the pattern right?   The scoring and yards per season kept dwindling.   Teams learned how to defense against him.    Make him a QB was the phrase often spoken by the opponents defenses. 

 

yeah, blame Shady.  

 

How much did the new OC contribute to the problem?  He WAS fired less than 24 hours after the season was over.  I was just noting a drop off in the entire offense from 2016 to 2017, not just one guy.

 

Let's review the pattern:

In 2015 we scored 379 points

In 2016 we scored 399 points (kind of a backwards dwindle)

In 2017 we scored 302 points.

 

What changed in 2017?  It was also coupled with Shady's 1.4 ypc drop.  What changed on the offense between 2017 and 2018?  It wasn't because of one player falling off a cliff IMHO. 

 

FYI - You can look it up here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/index.htm

 

If I had to blame it on one guy, it would be Denison. 

Edited by reddogblitz
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Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We scored more points in 2016 than 2015 though. 20 more points, 109 fewer yards. Then we got Dennison and scoring dropped by 97 points and yards dropped by 824...

one right one wrong my memory didn't serve well enough 2 years back. 

 

First I saw blame Shady and now its the OC.    That doesn't change the fact that defenses knew how to stop Taylor in 2017. 

3 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

What changed in 2017?  It was also coupled with Shady's 1.4 ypc drop.  What changed on the offense between 2017 and 2018?  It wasn't because of one player falling off a cliff IMHO. 

 

If I had to blame it on one guy, it would be Denison. 

Did I say Taylor fell off the cliff?   (nice try)   I said what I said again above. 

Christ if it wasn't for Hauschka it would have been even worse in PPG.  

 

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Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

one right one wrong my memory didn't serve well enough 2 years back. 

 

First I saw blame Shady and now its the OC.    That doesn't change the fact that defenses knew how to stop Taylor in 2017. 

 

Serious question: Do you think the changes the OC made between 2016 and 2017 had any effect on defenses knowing how to stop Hotrod in 2017?

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4 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Serious question: Do you think the changes the OC made between 2016 and 2017 had any effect on defenses knowing how to stop Hotrod in 2017?

2017 - Rate 89.2 QBR 60.0
2016 - Rate 89.7 QBR 61.4
2015 - Rate 99.4 QBR 65.3

 

The OC the OC .... Why was Roman fired when he was the best OC?  

 

Who pushed for it in week 2?   Rex, or maybe the offense? 

 

Do we know for sure the more points weren't because of facing weaker defenses?  

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

First I saw blame Shady and now its the OC.

 

 

Did I say blame Shady (nice try).

 

I was making an observation that other parts of the offense regressed substantially along with Taylor and scoring.

 

If it weren't for kickers, the Patriots would have only won maybe 3 super bowls.  Fail to see the point on this one. 

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1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

2017 - Rate 89.2 QBR 60.0
2016 - Rate 89.7 QBR 61.4
2015 - Rate 99.4 QBR 65.3

 

The OC the OC .... Why was Roman fired when he was the best OC?  

 

It's not tyrods fault.

It never was and it never will be.

You know that right?

You have to know that by now.

It's obviously not Tyrod's limitations as a QB that contributed to the decline.

Nope.

Not him.

Never him.

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Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

2017 - Rate 89.2 QBR 60.0
2016 - Rate 89.7 QBR 61.4
2015 - Rate 99.4 QBR 65.3

 

The OC the OC .... Why was Roman fired when he was the best OC?  

 

You have to ask Rex about that.    I have not idea.

 

The only stat I care about are wins.

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1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Did I say blame Shady (nice try).

 

I was making an observation that other parts of the offense regressed substantially along with Taylor and scoring.

 

If it weren't for kickers, the Patriots would have only won maybe 3 super bowls.  Fail to see the point on this one. 

Hokie another VT fan did

 

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Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's not tyrods fault.

It never was and it never will be.

You know that right?

You have to know that by now.

It's obviously not Tyrod's limitations as a QB that contributed to the decline.

Nope.

Not him.

Never him.

 

Do you think anything besides Hotrod's performance affected last years drop of 97 points from 2016?

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Because his approach to game prep was awful. Too many plays.

too many plays YET the best offense with Taylor!!!   

 

a poor excuse Hokie.

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

not sure where you get this from. Bills were top 1/3 in the league in scoring in 2015 and 2016.  Then something changed and scoring went way down. It wasn't Hotrod.

 

Shady also dropped 1.4 yards from his ypc last year btw.

See what you did.   You made me blame Hokie when it was you that put part of the blame on Shady 

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

No, I did nothing of the sort.

my apologies ...  see above 

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1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Do you think anything besides Hotrod's performance affected last years drop of 97 points from 2016?

 

Absolutely.

-OC

-Wr talent purge

 

Definitely affected it.

 

The league realizing that forcing Tyrod to play from the pocket and "be a QB" was the biggest factor.

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3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

too many plays YET the best offense with Taylor!!!   

 

a poor excuse Hokie.

Roman legitimately had the offense preparing 80+ plays per week in 2016. In weeks 1 & 2 we ran ~50 plays in the entire games. Lack of repetitions was leading to poor execution.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Roman legitimately had the offense preparing 80+ plays per week in 2016. In weeks 1 & 2 we ran ~50 plays in the entire games.

and they had seemingly the best offense 

 

Why would Tyrod  seemingly stop passing late in games with 3 separate OC's?    

 

I can name 2 key games where he was killing it in the passing game then stopped in the second which inevitably knocked the Bills from the WC spot. 

'15 was the lead then loss @ Chiefs  and in '16 it was the lead and loss @ Raiders

 

Are all OC's that stupid? 

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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