Lacanfora: Bills have reached out to Raiders about Khalil Mack trade

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Other than the salary cap, what is different today than 1987 when it comes to acquiring such a player? If anything, pressuring the opposing QB is even more important than it was back then given the proliferation of passing offenses. And if a team has a ton of projected cap room for the next several seasons, the cap constraint issue is negligible. 

 

I'm curious to see just how silly I turn out to be given the number of teams that will be involved in the bidding process to acquire Mack. 

Draft rules have changed significantly, which alters their value. Specifically the wage scale and 5th year option.

[ThunderGun]

18 minutes ago, Logic said:

On the one hand, I'd love it if Mack were a Bill, and I still believe in the importance of a quality edge rusher.

On the other hand, I can't remember the last time someone paid mega money to a non-QB and it wound up having a huge impact on their team.

Mario Williams, Ndamukong Suh, etc, etc....I just rarely see the impact match the pay grade.

Idk how much he signed for, but Demarcus Ware definitely played a key role in getting the Broncos over the hump and winning a Chip.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

I can recall watching Bennett tearing it up at Alabama and wanting to cry as Indy drafted O'Landa with their first-round pick. I was ecstatic when the Bills traded for him.  

 

I for one don't think the Bills overpaid for Bennett. I realize that lots do think the Bills overpaid.

Same here. Acquiring Bennett shifted the balance of power in the AFC East over night. And, even though they'll never admit it now, there was no shortage of people screaming how much we overpaid and how much we'd regret it. Like Polian, I would argue that players who can manufacture QB pressure from the edge on their own are the second most important player on the team. 

[BillnutinHouston]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Same here. Acquiring Bennett shifted the balance of power in the AFC East over night. And, even though they'll never admit it now, there was no shortage of people screaming how much we overpaid and how much we'd regret it. Like Polian, I would argue that players who can manufacture QB pressure from the edge on their own are the second most important player on the team. 

 

I recall that John Murphy hated the Bennett trade, he said the Bills "mortgaged the future". 

 

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Draft rules have changed significantly, which alters their value. Specifically the wage scale and 5th year option.

I understand and agree with that, but what does that have to do with the question of acquiring an elite talent via trade? The point you make suggests that because of the rookie wage scales and option years in place, we can just select a Khalil Mack in the draft. OK, fine, but I have a few questions about that strategy:

 

Is there another Khalil Mack in the next draft?

Are we guaranteed to be selecting high enough to draft him?

If not, how much draft capital will we have to spend in order to move up and get him?

And just how much less is that draft capital investment on a prospect vs. what we'd spend on an established All Pro in his prime?

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Same here. Acquiring Bennett shifted the balance of power in the AFC East over night. And, even though they'll never admit it now, there was no shortage of people screaming how much we overpaid and how much we'd regret it. Like Polian, I would argue that players who can manufacture QB pressure from the edge on their own are the second most important player on the team. 

To give you an idea just how much the league has changed since then, take a look at what the Rams were able to extract in that same trade for a mostly washed up Running Back.  Obscene.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, ThunderGun said:

Idk how much he signed for, but Demarcus Ware definitely played a key role in getting the Broncos over the hump and winning a Chip.

 

Wasn't that a stacked top 10 defense before Ware arrived though? We don't have the same kind of top tier defense.

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

I recall that John Murphy hated the Bennett trade, he said the Bills "mortgaged the future". 

 

Murph was not alone. 

 

There was another guy who hated the Bennett trade but for all the right reasons. 

 

Don Shula. 

 

He knew that changed the AFC East immediately and he said as much. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, K-9 said:

I understand and agree with that, but what does that have to do with the question of acquiring an elite talent via trade? The point you make suggests that because of the rookie wage scales and option years in place, we can just select a Khalil Mack in the draft. OK, fine, but I have a few questions about that strategy:

 

Is there another Khalil Mack in the next draft?

Are we guaranteed to be selecting high enough to draft him?

If not, how much draft capital will we have to spend in order to move up and get him?

And just how much less is that draft capital investment on a prospect vs. what we'd spend on an established All Pro in his prime?

No, not the point I was making. The main currency being used to acquire Mack is draft picks and those picks' value has changed to most NFL FO's. It'd be like if the US switched from Gold to Diamonds. Everything with a price would start to be re-evaluated.

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

44 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

I'm usually not in favor of the big names/big splash, but I disagree in this case.  Dude can get to the QB;  that's been a big problem since Mario Williams mentally retired.  Plus he seems to love Buffalo.

 

Assuming they can sign him to a new deal, I'd trade a first and some combo of other picks/players for him.

And you'd have to hope that Mack wouldn't mentally retire.  I don't know if he would or would not, but despite everyone's opinions, NOBODY knows the answer to that question. Now that's the case with almost every player in the league (I can't see KW mentally retiring), but do you want to bet $100 million and some high draft choices on it?

[Domdab99]

Is he really a 1st round draft pick better than what we have right now? No need for this. He's like a Mario Williams...a cool, shiny bauble who won't translate to wins.

[Dablitzkrieg]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

Is he really a 1st round draft pick better than what we have right now? No need for this. He's like a Mario Williams...a cool, shiny bauble who won't translate to wins.

I am assuming/hoping this is sarcasm?

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

To give you an idea just how much the league has changed since then, take a look at what the Rams were able to extract in that same trade for a mostly washed up Running Back.  Obscene.

Running backs may have been devalued, but edge rushers who can manufacture pressure on their own certainly haven't. What LA was able to extract is immaterial to what we obtained. I think it's a good question for Colts fans though. 

 

You raise a good point here in that it would be nice if we can get another team involved in the transaction as it would make it more palatable for Oakland to deal him to us perhaps. 

[Heitz]

Man, did this guy sign here yet, or what!? ??

[North Buffalo]

F5, twitter refresh etc

[mannc]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Running backs may have been devalued, but edge rushers who can manufacture pressure on their own certainly haven't. What LA was able to extract is immaterial to what we obtained. I think it's a good question for Colts fans though. 

 

You raise a good point here in that it would be nice if we can get another team involved in the transaction as it would make it more palatable for Oakland to deal him to us perhaps. 

If you want a good laugh, take a look at the hot garbage the Rams ended up drafting with all those premium picks.

[OrtonHearsaWho]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

Is he really a 1st round draft pick better than what we have right now? No need for this. He's like a Mario Williams...a cool, shiny bauble who won't translate to wins.

 

Um, yes he is.  I don't get the Mario hate either.  He was badly misused when Rex came to town but before that he was a very good player.  Elite pass rushers change the entire defense.

[billsfan89]

46 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Why is the premium for the second most important position on a team so much less today than it was before? The only difference in terms of team dynamic is the salary cap that I can see. Not an insignificant consideration, but for teams with a ton of projected cap room for the next several years, it's not much of a constraint. And with multiple teams in the bidding, somebody is going to have to up their offer. 

 

Polian invested that much for a great potential player in Bennett whereas Mack has already established himself as a premier player in the league. And while I understand that Bennett was a finishing piece to the puzzle, I don't see the wisdom in passing up an opportunity to lock up a premier player at such a critical position, regardless. 

 

Teams Value cheap rookie contracts much more than they did in 1988. Mack's value is also diminished by the fact that you would be paying him a large 20 million dollar or more per year contract with a hefty guarantee. Even in the context of the Bennett trade, you were trading 3 future picks for a rookie. Mack is 27 years old and about to get paid. The Bills didn't even trade up for Bennett they drafted Shane Conlan at pick 8 then traded those 3 future selections plus Greg Bell a running back of value to get the number 2 pick outright. The Bills got the number 2 overall pick for 2 future firsts, a second rounder and a decent running back. 

 

Whereas with Mack they would be trading for a player who is older and taking up a lot of cap space.1st round picks are even more valuable now because it can lock in a player for 5 years fairly affordably. Teams are certainly willing to part with 1 first round pick and cap space for a premium player that isn't a QB but 2 first round picks and a 2nd is insane esp given the cap considerations.

 

Yes Mack is more proven than Bennett was but Bennett once again was younger and there wasn't the same cap considerations. It would just be insane to give up those picks for anything other than a QB or a player with multiple years left on a rookie deal. 

Edited August 24, 2018 by billsfan89

[Domdab99]

Just now, OrtonHearsaWho said:

 

Um, yes he is.  I don't get the Mario hate either.  He was badly misused when Rex came to town but before that he was a very good player.  Elite pass rushers change the entire defense.

 

If we can get him without giving up a first, great...but I don't see that happening...plus, he's going to cost a bundle. The FO seems to be doing a good job with the draft and grabbing the right people off of free agency.

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

No, not the point I was making. The main currency being used to acquire Mack is draft picks and those picks' value has changed to most NFL FO's. It'd be like if the US switched from Gold to Diamonds. Everything with a price would start to be re-evaluated.

I fully understand the concept you raise. I just don't buy that GMs necessarily value future draft picks so much more than proven All Pros in their athletic prime. Besides, it's a dynamic equation. Mack will have more value to some vs. others relative to their current team situations. 

 

Given the amount of teams involved in the bidding, I'll be surprised if he doesn't fetch two firsts at minimum. We are talking GMs who see Mack as their final piece on D perhaps; the guy that can change it all overnight; the immediate cost benefit vs. future value. I just don't think these new formulas are as cut and dried when it comes to acquiring an elite player at a critical position in a league where pressuring the QB is at a premium.