Shaq Lawson on roster bubble

[BringBackOrton]

We hardly knew ya Shaq!

 

[MAJBobby]

20 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

We hardly knew ya Shaq!

 

 

Or more likely

Boesen, Fede, Lewis, Love, or Odighizuwa 

And it was Odighizuwa as the Cuttee. 

 

@BillsFanatics 

 

The #Bills have signed DE Ryan Russell & have released DE Owa Odighizuwa.

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Or more likely

Boesen, Fede, Lewis, Love, or Odighizuwa 

And it was Odighizuwa as the Cuttee. 

 

@BillsFanatics 

 

The #Bills have signed DE Ryan Russell & have released DE Owa Odighizuwa.

Are you getting nervous?

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Are you getting nervous?

 

And why would I be getting nervous again?

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He wasnt wrong.  If Whaley had taken Lynch and showed a commitment generally to finding a franchise QB, he’d probably still be here.  You can justify a failed QB pick to your bosses.  What was the point of the Lawson pick?  How do you justify that pick when you still don’t have a QB?  Hell, the linked thread mentions that the Cowboys tried to trade for the Bills’ pick so they could take Lynch but Whaley said no - so the Cowboys lucked out on Prescott instead (because they were focused on drafting a QB).  Whaley could’ve traded the pick and taken Jack (as many of us here were begging him to do) or just taken Jack there... but staying put and taking Lawson was inexcusable given the position and the opportunity cost and lo and behold, that was the last draft Doug Whaley ran on his own and he is no longer an NFL GM.  When you factor in the trade that was passed on - the Bills essentially took Lawson over an extra 2nd and 3rd and next year’s 1st or whatever it was - and the guy was injured and isn’t even a pass rusher when healthy.

 

This isn’t hindsight, it’s foresight - look at the draft day thread, some of us were saying these things at the time!

 

Certainly Jack's sophmore year made his slip down the board look ever more odd. If you knew he was gonna be extremely limited as a rookie (he was) but then start to look like the player he was in college you pick him. He was BPA at that point but obviously the whole league got spooked by the injury not just the Bills.

 

And no, there was no justification for picking Paxton Lynch in the first round. He had bust written all over him and right through the middle of him. And even if we were playing Badol's always take the best QB on your board (I like the sentiment but some years it just doesn't work) after Wentz and Goff my next two ranked QBs were both 2nd rounders. One was Connor Cook (which wouldn't have worked out so well either), the other was Dak Prescott. 

 

I admit I was a big Shaq fan, he was a top 10 player on my board and I really liked the pick. I was wrong and have no issue with owning it. But wanting Paxton Lynch is never right and never justifiable. A curosry look at his tape told you the story. He was not going to be a good NFL QB. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, Joe Miner said:

 

Sure.  Thought he could have been good for the Bills.  He's been a major disappointment.

 

Good luck getting that group to ever admit they were wrong about anything.  But they'll definitely let you know when someone else was wrong.

 

I was also OK with selecting EJ Manuel..........and as I said at the time........it was only wrong if they weren't willing to go right back to the well immediately if they aren't completely sold that he is a franchise QB.

 

Early round QB's still turn into franchise QB's much less than 20% of the time.........if you are advocating taking one every year until you get one.......as I do.......then you are going to accept being wrong in the short term in hopes of hitting that lucky number and creating a 10--15 year SB competitive window when you hit on that pick.

 

But if you don't ever go all-in on a QB on draft day you don't deserve to get that 15 year stud QB.     Bills never have until they just pushed all the chips in on Allen.

 

The thing about 1st round picks is that their inherent value has always been that opportunity to get a franchise changing player that you really don't have a realistic shot at getting elsewhere.

 

And the way the game has evolved........QB is really the ONLY franchise changing position.   

 

So if you are QB deprived and not using your first rounders on the QB position you aren't really using your first round picks right.

 

I used to have a positional value chart posted here and basically I had QB at a 10 value.......... and elite pass rusher was the next position of value all the way down at 4.0 and it dropped downward significantly from there.

 

I'm still holding out one last breath of hope that Shaq can somehow improve his awful get-off and become a serviceable player........but IMO Shaq's ceiling was a sub 3 value........which is just too low to justify using a golden ticket on.

 

 

[Doc]

Not sure I see anyone at backup DE worth keeping over Shaq.  I was hoping Owa would stick but he's gone.

Edited July 30, 2018 by Doc

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Certainly Jack's sophmore year made his slip down the board look ever more odd. If you knew he was gonna be extremely limited as a rookie (he was) but then start to look like the player he was in college you pick him. He was BPA at that point but obviously the whole league got spooked by the injury not just the Bills.

 

And no, there was no justification for picking Paxton Lynch in the first round. He had bust written all over him and right through the middle of him. And even if we were playing Badol's always take the best QB on your board (I like the sentiment but some years it just doesn't work) after Wentz and Goff my next two ranked QBs were both 2nd rounders. One was Connor Cook (which wouldn't have worked out so well either), the other was Dak Prescott. 

 

I admit I was a big Shaq fan, he was a top 10 player on my board and I really liked the pick. I was wrong and have no issue with owning it. But wanting Paxton Lynch is never right and never justifiable. A curosry look at his tape told you the story. He was not going to be a good NFL QB. 

 

 

LOL I absolutely did not "want" Lynch.......deep down I am like every fan......I WANT the sure bet immediate impact players.

 

But I also didn't "want" Brady or Russ or Cousins or Garoppolo in round one either.

 

None of them looked like a franchise QB coming out and each team that got them was simply lucky because they took a shot in a general direction based on a little info and a lot of hope.

 

 Knowing what you don't know is an underrated aspect of the evaluation process....you are quite good and work hard at it but I'm not sure you understand this just yet.

 

I mean........the audacity to think that you know so much more about NFL QB play than a ringed-up GM and HOF QB in John Elway that you can say a pick he made was impossible to justify?

 

C'mon dude.   Really??

 

I know you are a little miffed about what happened with your Shaq evaluation..........but listen to yourself.    Just WAY over the top.

 

Yeah I get it though.......sometimes we are sold on a QB prospect and he pans out and we make the mistake of thinking we have it figured out.......but we do not.  

 

It's exponentially harder to predict QB success than any other position. 

 

None of those guys I mentioned looked like a franchise QB coming out.     Great football minds with massive amounts of data didn't know.

 

The point of the exercise is taking your shots at toolsy QB's. 

  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 6/20/2018 at 9:42 AM, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Agreed.  In fact, current comments from Beane have suggested that Beane and McD have been satisfied with how SL has responded to their “demands” related to dropping some weight and physical conditioning in general.

 

That said, I could see them moving him for the right compensation.

 

Agree on both points.  Also Leslie Frazier comments.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

LOL I absolutely did not "want" Lynch.......deep down I am like every fan......I WANT the sure bet immediate impact players.

 

But I also didn't "want" Brady or Russ or Cousins or Garoppolo in round one either.

 

None of them looked like a franchise QB coming out and each team that got them was simply lucky because they took a shot in a general direction based on a little info and a lot of hope.

 

 Knowing what you don't know is an underrated aspect of the evaluation process....you are quite good and work hard at it but I'm not sure you understand this just yet.

 

I mean........the audacity to think that you know so much more about NFL QB play than a ringed-up GM and HOF QB in John Elway that you can say a pick he made was impossible to justify?

 

C'mon dude.   Really??

 

I know you are a little miffed about what happened with your Shaq evaluation..........but listen to yourself.    Just WAY over the top.

 

Yeah I get it though.......sometimes we are sold on a QB prospect and he pans out and we make the mistake of thinking we have it figured out.......but we do not.  

 

It's exponentially harder to predict QB success than any other position. 

 

None of those guys I mentioned looked like a franchise QB coming out.     Great football minds with massive amounts of data didn't know.

 

The point of the exercise is taking your shots at toolsy QB's. 

  

 

I wouldn't have taken Paxton Lynch in the 3rd round. I don't care what John Elway did or didn't think. What is the evidence he is a good Quarterback evaluator anyway? 

 

I am fine with taking shots on Quarterbacks. I wanted the Bills to do that too. And some bigger gambles than others. Anyone who thought the right play was a shot on Paxton Lynch was wrong. That includes John Elway. 

 

As for knowing everything you don't know.... maybe I don't. I will tell you what I do know though.... Paxton Lynch is a bust. I knew that long before Denver drafted him. 

Edited July 30, 2018 by GunnerBill

[thenorthremembers]

9 hours ago, Uncle Joe said:

So just out of curiosity why do you think he is dropping weight instead of bulking up?

I feel like the strength of his game is being stout at the point of attack and stopping the run.  I don't see him as a pass rush specialist type, at all.

 

There were times over his first two years they moved him inside a bit.   That being said, I always thought a good comparison for Shaq coming into the league was Brandon Graham, and if you know what you're getting with him, good run support and limited pass rush you have an average NFL starter.   

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I was also OK with selecting EJ Manuel..........and as I said at the time........it was only wrong if they weren't willing to go right back to the well immediately if they aren't completely sold that he is a franchise QB.

 

Early round QB's still turn into franchise QB's much less than 20% of the time.........if you are advocating taking one every year until you get one.......as I do.......then you are going to accept being wrong in the short term in hopes of hitting that lucky number and creating a 10--15 year SB competitive window when you hit on that pick.

 

But if you don't ever go all-in on a QB on draft day you don't deserve to get that 15 year stud QB.     Bills never have until they just pushed all the chips in on Allen.

 

The thing about 1st round picks is that their inherent value has always been that opportunity to get a franchise changing player that you really don't have a realistic shot at getting elsewhere.

 

And the way the game has evolved........QB is really the ONLY franchise changing position.   

 

So if you are QB deprived and not using your first rounders on the QB position you aren't really using your first round picks right.

 

I used to have a positional value chart posted here and basically I had QB at a 10 value.......... and elite pass rusher was the next position of value all the way down at 4.0 and it dropped downward significantly from there.

 

I'm still holding out one last breath of hope that Shaq can somehow improve his awful get-off and become a serviceable player........but IMO Shaq's ceiling was a sub 3 value........which is just too low to justify using a golden ticket on.

 

 

You are wasting your breath. Half of this place thinks the EJ pick itself set us back 5 years, but really, it was the way we operated after that screwed us.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

You are wasting your breath. Half of this place thinks the EJ pick itself set us back 5 years, but really, it was the way we operated after that screwed us.

 

 

Yeah I've never understood why the NFL is so bad at QB math.

 

I get that personnel people and coaches feel like they can't do the statistically intelligent long play and draft the best possible QB within reach until they get one..........those guys jobs are on the line.

 

But an owner has to be smart enough to know that their organization must be QB-centric if they expect to have any kind of long term success and that the smart thing to do is put people in charge that can groom young QB's and give them a directive and then give them room to make it work.

 

The Bills are kinda' still playing it the dumb way with a defensive coach who immediately picked a bad OC.........but at least they were finally all-in on a QB and the second OC.....despite a gruesome prior track record as an NFL OC ........at least provides a sliver of hope because he worked with Brady.

 

[BringBackOrton]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I've never understood why the NFL is so bad at QB math.

 

I get that personnel people and coaches feel like they can't do the statistically intelligent long play and draft the best possible QB within reach until they get one..........those guys jobs are on the line.

 

But an owner has to be smart enough to know that their organization must be QB-centric if they expect to have any kind of long term success and that the smart thing to do is put people in charge that can groom young QB's and give them a directive and then give them room to make it work.

 

The Bills are kinda' still playing it the dumb way with a defensive coach who immediately picked a bad OC.........but at least they were finally all-in on a QB and the second OC.....despite a gruesome prior track record as an NFL OC ........at least provides a sliver of hope because he worked with Brady.

 

If I was an owner, I’d ask my HC and GM interviewers to explain the sunk cost fallacy and how that pertains to the modern NFL.

 

Rex wouldn’t have made it to the second question.

[SpillerDownTheSideline]

I don't think this roster bubble for Shaq Lawson is as big as everyone thinks. Just because he hasn't lived up to his pick selection, doesn't mean he will just be cut for the sake of cutting him.

 

Until an option better than Shaq (Mack perhaps) becomes available, he will remain a Bill. 

 

Esp, with how we rotate ends and the lack of production from anyone outside Shaq/Jerry on the roster. Plus Shaq is a confirmed solid player vs the run.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by SpillerDownTheSideline

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

If I was an owner, I’d ask my HC and GM interviewers to explain the sunk cost fallacy and how that pertains to the modern NFL.

 

Rex wouldn’t have made it to the second question.

 

I don't get the sense they interviewed Rex.  The way they talk about it he came into this room starting rambling his egotistical horse sh*t the Pegulas sat there lapping it up, Russ said "don't let him leave the room", they hired him, he asked "is this on?" And the rest thankfully is now consigned to history.  

[PaattMaann]

14 minutes ago, SpillerDownTheSideline said:

I don't think this roster bubble for Shaq Lawson is as big as everyone thinks. Just because he hasn't lived up to his pick selection, doesn't mean he will just be cut for the sake of cutting him.

 

Until an option better than Shaq (Mack perhaps) becomes available, he will remain a Bill. 

 

Esp, with how we rotate ends and the lack of production from anyone outside Shaq/Jerry on the roster. Plus Shaq is a confirmed solid player vs the run.

 

 

 

there are better options than Shaq on the Bills current roster, Murphy and Yarborough being two (Hughes doesn't count as he is the starter on the other side). This is why Shaq remains on the roster bubble. I think he is kept though for rotational purposes. 

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

there are better options than Shaq on the Bills current roster, Murphy and Yarborough being two (Hughes doesn't count as he is the starter on the other side). This is why Shaq remains on the roster bubble. I think he is kept though for rotational purposes. 

 

Not exactly.  EY brings decent pass rush ability, but he's a liability in the run game. 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

there are better options than Shaq on the Bills current roster, Murphy and Yarborough being two (Hughes doesn't count as he is the starter on the other side). This is why Shaq remains on the roster bubble. I think he is kept though for rotational purposes. 

 

Lorax can provide some pass rush as well and I believe he stated McDermott already told him that he would be used more in this area.

If Shaq makes the team....I can see him getting only like 20% of the snaps.

[PaattMaann]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Lorax can provide some pass rush as well and I believe he stated McDermott already told him that he would be used more in this area.

If Shaq makes the team....I can see him getting only like 20% of the snaps.

 

yea I didnt include Lorax just because of his OLB position rather than DE, but yes he can used in place of a DE

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not exactly.  EY brings decent pass rush ability, but he's a liability in the run game. 

 

We're keeping 4 likely anyway.  Shaq also is big enough and has some rip to him that he can be used inside on obvious passing downs.  

 

Russells contract is unlikely to have any guaranteed money - so he has to seriously outplay lawson for us to consider trading/cutting lawson.  Yarbrough is also not guaranteed either.

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

yea I didnt include Lorax just because of his OLB position rather than DE, but yes he can used in place of a DE

 

Yeah - he's starting at SAM in our base defense right now though and none of lacey, stanford, humber particularly impresses me to the point that he needs to move positions.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Not exactly.  EY brings decent pass rush ability, but he's a liability in the run game. 

 

Yup.  And he only had 1 sack last year, although I'm not sure about QB pressures.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

there are better options than Shaq on the Bills current roster, Murphy and Yarborough being two (Hughes doesn't count as he is the starter on the other side). This is why Shaq remains on the roster bubble. I think he is kept though for rotational purposes. 

 

Yep - gotta have backups... Russell had 2 sacks and 17 combined tackles in 14 games last year (6 starts - 459 snaps).  Lawson had 4 sacks and 33 combined tackles in 11 (10 starts - 435 snaps).

 

 

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yup.  And he only had 1 sack last year, although I'm not sure about QB pressures.

 

He had 464 snaps - so more than both russell and lawson.

 

So production-wise - lawson has outperformed both in actual game situations

Edited July 30, 2018 by dneveu

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

He had 464 snaps - so more than both russell and lawson.

 

Yeah, but why?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Yeah, but why?

 

Injury.  Considering Murphys injury history i guess it makes sense to not bring back a guy with history of injury.  

 

However in fewer snaps he was more productive than both of the guys who would be replacing him.  He'd be involved in limited snaps either way.

 

I look at it like this - if we cut lawson (and eat cap) we're keeping russel, lawson will likely get scooped up.  Maybe we could trade him - but that would assume the value meets the fact that we'd be paying pretty much the same cap hit as keeping him.

 

If we cut russell and lawson gets hurt... its also likely russell will still be available.  

[Bill from NYC]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I was also OK with selecting EJ Manuel..........and as I said at the time........it was only wrong if they weren't willing to go right back to the well immediately if they aren't completely sold that he is a franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

Maybe so, but you were also the first to point out his flaws. You said that his arms were so long than it slowed his release. I had never heard that criticism of a qb before so I paid careful attention and it was true....he had an odd release due to the extra arm motion. EJ, for unknown reason(s), also became considerably slower of his feet than he was in college. He looked like he was running in sand.

 

The Bills took him because they had no choice. They had passed on so many qbs that they were forced to draft him (or Geno Smith) and even at that, traded back 8 spots. Those were ugly days indeed.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 7/30/2018 at 2:32 PM, Bill from NYC said:

Maybe so, but you were also the first to point out his flaws. You said that his arms were so long than it slowed his release. I had never heard that criticism of a qb before so I paid careful attention and it was true....he had an odd release due to the extra arm motion. EJ, for unknown reason(s), also became considerably slower of his feet than he was in college. He looked like he was running in sand.

 

The Bills took him because they had no choice. They had passed on so many qbs that they were forced to draft him (or Geno Smith) and even at that, traded back 8 spots. Those were ugly days indeed.

 

Yeah EJ is all arms and legs and he clearly had abbreviated his motion to avoid having a Byron Leftwich-esque long release.    His footwork was horrendous considering he played enough in college to start 4 bowl games and had been attending all the big camps in HS.   But he was a pretty talented "ball of clay" athlete and high character.  I just thought it was going to take a LONG time to develop him.  But you gotta' take chances at the only position that REALLY matters.  Buddy Nix knew he had to take a shot at a QB.  Paxton Lynch is also a guy with a lot to overcome but physically he is also a considerably better QB prospect.