Accuracy vs. precision

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Magox

 

I love the term "phantom pressure".  It is so descriptive and so accurate.

 

Yes, Mag, that is definitely a real thing with this young man.

 

Great post, btw.

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Sorry to be speaking out of school a bit on the OT, but didn't someone here also link to a stat that showed that Allen was far and away (maybe by as much as more than 50%) the QB that had the most yards passing through the air before the ball got to his receiver?

 

I bring it up from the strained point (with little to back it up, mind you) that as the ball travels through the air more there is a greater variable on what can happen, either with the coverage or even the receivers perception of the catch that has to be made, as well as the type of pass that needs to be made.

 

For example, if I am standing next to oldmanfan, maybe 6-7 feet away, accuracy and precision go a little bit out the window as even if these are off, because as we toss the ball back and forth we can recover fairly easily given the limited variation on the equation of what can happen...I could be high, low, whatever on every single toss, but it will still be just a toss and there is little in between us that can change what is going on.

 

As that distance grows I think things are a little more up in the air, no pun intended.  I can have a higher completion percentage on shorter throws even if they are erratic, due to the above, accuracy and precision be damned.

 

My main point is even if this kid is 50-50, if the throw goes almost 10 yards I will take that as much on 3rd down as I would take someone who is 60-40, but the pass goes 6 yards and the receiver is stopped before the first down marker.

 

Again, my apologies as it is slightly off topic, it's just this thread made me think of it.

 

 

 

 

I agree.  And it's yet another variable that isn't accounted for when looking at a single statistic.  Both accuracy and precision will fall off over distance.  Sharpshooters aren't as good with either the farther out they get. 

1 hour ago, napmaster said:

 

This is a blanket statement which needs to be broken down and it's where the scouts make their money.  If the inaccuracy is deemed to be caused by a correctable flaw in mechanics,  then the low accuracy, high precision guy should not be dismissed.  The positive is the repeatability in location, and the location itself may or may not be correctable.

Good point.  If there is a specific flaw then hopefully you fx it and improve.  Bottom line to me thought, is give me a guy that's accurate, not necessarily precise.

[US Egg]

Accuracy vs. precision....like this ?

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree.  And it's yet another variable that isn't accounted for when looking at a single statistic.  Both accuracy and precision will fall off over distance.  Sharpshooters aren't as good with either the farther out they get. 

 

Oldman, we also really have to start wrapping our heads around what this regime is going to be asking this kid to do.

 

Which I believe is:  make the mid rang throws (10-20 yards), be able to move while making those throws, but hold your horses a bit as we are still primarily a running teams so even given that big arm don't expect to do it more than 30 times a game.

 

Allen may only throw 30 times a game, and he likely still may only complete 17 of those passes (56.6%).  The hope is those passes do more, travel farther and keep the chains going up field along with our running game.  I think even a steady diet of 7.5-8 yards per attempt (225-240 yards per game) helps this anemic passing game out a great deal.

Edited May 8, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Ramza86]

20 minutes ago, GG said:

Watch the Iowa & Oregon games

 

Just finished the Iowa game. He threw the two picks. 

 

You dont like to see that 1st pick. I dont think it was the wrong throw....but he had a free runner going at him and he threw it on the inside. Mistake. 

 

Dont really care about the second one. Hes just trying to make a play. Game was over.

 

I didnt really see anything outside of that to be honest. There was 1 play it was a 3rd and 7 and he went with his 1st option and gained 6. Short of the 1st. They went for it on 4th and converted. 

 

The one thing I did notice is, he got a little more rattled as the game went by and the game was getting out of reach. Iowa kept on bringing rushers and they kept getting to him.

 

The line truly failed him in 2017.

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Oldman, we also really have to start wrapping our heads around what this regime is going to be asking this kid to do.

 

Which I believe is:  make the mid rang throws (10-20 yards), be able to move while making those throws, but hold your horses a bit as we are still primarily a running teams so even given that big arm don't expect to do it more than 30 times a game.

 

Allen may only throw 30 times a game, and he likely still may only complete 17 of those passes (56.6%).  The hope is those passes do more, travel farther and keep the chains going up field along with our running game.  I think even a steady diet of 7.5-8 yards per attempt (225-240 yards per game) helps this anemic passing game out a great deal.

Agreed.  I will be very interested to see what Daboll runs this coming year.  You still have Shady and assuming he doesn't fall off from last year (hopefully) it would be kind of silly to not ride a horse like that.  Regardless of whether it's AJ and Allen, I expect they'll do just what you're describing.  Hopefully with a bit higher percentage completion rate. 

 

The over the top reaction to Allen is the product of several things:  misunderstanding of the proper use of statistics, a sort of built in defense mechanism many Bills fans have after years of QB disappointment, the age of the Internet and assuming you can have an answer right now instead of realizing you can't have an immediate answer all the time, people thinking they actually know more from watching some film than the pro scouts and GMS that spend countless hours observing and actually interviewing guys.  And so on.

 

I'm looking forward to see what both he and McCarron bring to the table.  Also how much Peterman improves.  I'm content to actually watch them play before coming to any conclusions.

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Agreed.  I will be very interested to see what Daboll runs this coming year.  You still have Shady and assuming he doesn't fall off from last year (hopefully) it would be kind of silly to not ride a horse like that.  Regardless of whether it's AJ and Allen, I expect they'll do just what you're describing.  Hopefully with a bit higher percentage completion rate. 

 

The over the top reaction to Allen is the product of several things:  misunderstanding of the proper use of statistics, a sort of built in defense mechanism many Bills fans have after years of QB disappointment, the age of the Internet and assuming you can have an answer right now instead of realizing you can't have an immediate answer all the time, people thinking they actually know more from watching some film than the pro scouts and GMS that spend countless hours observing and actually interviewing guys.  And so on.

 

I'm looking forward to see what both he and McCarron bring to the table.  Also how much Peterman improves.  I'm content to actually watch them play before coming to any conclusions.

 

 

Very well said and a number of great points.  I bow to you, Sir.

 

...I am at the office right now and the bowing is a little awkward...people are talking.  I'm going to stop now, but you get the idea.

[Dick Drew]

Regarding accuracy/precision I recently watched a video of an interview of Joe Montana.  He was asked "Who do you think is the greatest QB of them all?"

After giving it some thought he replied;  "You have to consider Dan Marino.  No one has ever thrown passes with the accuracy and precision of Marino, and remember he wasn't throwing to 6'5" speedsters.  He made Mark Duper & Marc Clayton unbeatable.

As an aside; in our fantasy leagues of 1985 through 1988 we excluded Marino from drafts because he was so prolific a scorer that whoever drafted him won the league championship.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Every QB misses some throws. What are your major issues?

Including Marsha!

[Mrbojanglezs]

when I watch him he seems very accurate, the only times he is off target is when he rushes his footwork or throws from an awkward base.

 

Jordan Palmer has been working on that with him,  so as long as he can keep his footwork good, I don't think accuracy will be a problem.

 

He played a lot of hero ball at WYO, he carried that team on his shoulders, he was forcing downfield throws. Not a lot of dink and dunk driving up his completion % #s.

[dpberr]

Whether shooting a rifle or throwing a football, years of learned behavior and bad habits takes a long time to correct.  It's not something training camp is going to fix.  

 

In regards to Josh Allen, I am one of those fans concerned about the completion percentage because I think the "look at the quality of his wide receivers!" argument is fanboy excuse making.  I'm ok with the pick - if Allen is successful, the Bills are too.  

 

The inaccuracy suggests that there is learned behavior and/or mechanics that require adjustment.  If Allen follows an Aaron Rodgers career track, I'm sure there would be improvement.  However, if he's thrust into the starting role this year, he's going to rely on those instincts and methods that have gotten him this far and that's bad news.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, dpberr said:

Whether shooting a rifle or throwing a football, years of learned behavior and bad habits takes a long time to correct.  It's not something training camp is going to fix.  

 

In regards to Josh Allen, I am one of those fans concerned about the completion percentage because I think the "look at the quality of his wide receivers!" argument is fanboy excuse making.  I'm ok with the pick - if Allen is successful, the Bills are too.  

 

The inaccuracy suggests that there is learned behavior and/or mechanics that require adjustment.  If Allen follows an Aaron Rodgers career track, I'm sure there would be improvement.  However, if he's thrust into the starting role this year, he's going to rely on those instincts and methods that have gotten him this far and that's bad news.  

 

 

Again, don't confuse accuracy with precision.  Accuracy is surrounding the bull's eye but not necessarily hitting the middle of the bull's eye.  Precision is hitting your spot every time, but the spot is on the outer ring of the dart board.

 

Taking that to the football field, if you throw the ball relatively close to a receiver, but may not hit him right between the numbers, that is good accuracy and not as good precision.  And that does then factor in the quality of the receiver.  Not only whether they have good enough hands to catch a ball that is not necessarily right on the numbers, but the "catch radius" term that is popular right now. 

[ganesh]

9 minutes ago, dpberr said:

Whether shooting a rifle or throwing a football, years of learned behavior and bad habits takes a long time to correct.  It's not something training camp is going to fix.  

 

In regards to Josh Allen, I am one of those fans concerned about the completion percentage because I think the "look at the quality of his wide receivers!" argument is fanboy excuse making.  I'm ok with the pick - if Allen is successful, the Bills are too.  

 

The inaccuracy suggests that there is learned behavior and/or mechanics that require adjustment.  If Allen follows an Aaron Rodgers career track, I'm sure there would be improvement.  However, if he's thrust into the starting role this year, he's going to rely on those instincts and methods that have gotten him this far and that's bad news.  

 

 

well said.  I think that is a fair assessment.   Hope Allen will get the opportunity to overcome such a pitfall! Go Bills!

[Robert James]

2 hours ago, bmur66 said:

So we need to send Josh to a gunsmith?

 

To his credit, he went to two on his own: Jordan Palmer and Kirk Cousins.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

There's been a lot of talk about the accuracy (or lack of) with our first round QB. But the entire concept of accuracy is misunderstood by many.  Some claim that his percentage completion rate should not be used as a measure of accuracy, in that he my be off target but his receivers still make the catch.

 

This is a classic example of mistaking accuracy for precision.  Statistically, accuracy is how close you come to hitting a specific value.  Precision is how often you can repeat a specific value, even if that value is not close to the expected value.  Classically the difference between the two is shown with a dartboard picture:

 

 

So if you look at the high accuracy, low precision picture, that might be the kind of QB that works well in the NFL, but needs his WRs to make catches when the ball is close to them.  The low accuracy, high precision guys are the ones you want to avoid, as they might be able to hit a specific spot every time, but the pot isn't anywhere near the receiver.  and of course, the guys who are both very precise and very accurate at ideal.

 

From what I've read about Allen, he is accurate, but needs to work on precision.  I can live with that vs. being precise but not accurate.

 

Good post!

 

I think practically speaking, the difference between accuracy and precision for NFL QB is less telling than you might think, and reflects why it's considered so important for WR and QB to work together as much as possible to build "chemistry".

 

What "chemistry" really means, practically speaking, is that the WR knows where the ball is going to be placed on every route for different defensive coverage, and the QB is consistent in where he places the ball.   If the ball is precise, but not accurate (provided it's not hospitality-tent inaccurate, which would be missing the target altogether), a good NFL-quality WR can usually adjust his route to where the ball is going to be.  A good example of this to watch on film IMO would be Mason Rudolph to Washington.  The ball isn't placed quite right, but Washington knows where it's going to be and adjusts.  It can be made to work - most of the time.  It can cost you in the sense of a higher DOD catch with less YAC possible and more risk to the WR.

 

2 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Anticipation and timing. But his biggest supporters like Jordan Palmer blame that on the WR's. 

 

? I haven't heard that from Palmer.  I'd be surprised - he's pretty couth, too couth to throw young college WR under the bus like that.

 

I thought Allen's OC gave a very balanced take.  He made it clear that he thought Allen had areas to improve, and owned the completion %, while also making the point that their offense had failed to give him a pocket and otherwise "underperformed". 

[eball]

2 hours ago, GG said:

Watch the Iowa & Oregon games

 

I haven't watched them, but I'll point out these are two examples of which Allen was the only player on his own roster at a level equal or greater to just about every player on the other teams' rosters.  Think he maybe thought he had to "do everything" in those games to give them a chance?

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

There's been a lot of talk about the accuracy (or lack of) with our first round QB. But the entire concept of accuracy is misunderstood by many.  Some claim that his percentage completion rate should not be used as a measure of accuracy, in that he my be off target but his receivers still make the catch.

 

This is a classic example of mistaking accuracy for precision.  Statistically, accuracy is how close you come to hitting a specific value.  Precision is how often you can repeat a specific value, even if that value is not close to the expected value.  Classically the difference between the two is shown with a dartboard picture:

 

 

So if you look at the high accuracy, low precision picture, that might be the kind of QB that works well in the NFL, but needs his WRs to make catches when the ball is close to them.  The low accuracy, high precision guys are the ones you want to avoid, as they might be able to hit a specific spot every time, but the pot isn't anywhere near the receiver.  and of course, the guys who are both very precise and very accurate at ideal.

 

From what I've read about Allen, he is accurate, but needs to work on precision.  I can live with that vs. being precise but not accurate.

 

Nice write-up.

 

Accuracy in the NFL doesn't (usually) mean the same thing it does to you.  Accuracy in this world means hitting receivers consistently - even in tight windows.   "Accuracy" for QBs combines the concepts of accuracy and precision.  Maybe it shouldn't.  

 

I wonder if there's any research to suggest precision is more correctable than accuracy, as you suggest? 

Completion percentage doesn't accurately measure accuracy or precision.  

Edited May 8, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

? I haven't heard that from Palmer.  I'd be surprised - he's pretty couth, too couth to throw young college WR under the bus like that.

 

I thought Allen's OC gave a very balanced take.  He made it clear that he thought Allen had areas to improve, and owned the completion %, while also making the point that their offense had failed to give him a pocket and otherwise "underperformed". 

Listen from 3:30 on. It's the exact conversation we're having. 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Anticipation and timing. But his biggest supporters like Jordan Palmer blame that on the WR's. 

You gotta admit.....when you watch the film his pass targets didnt do him any favors.....

 

Then he goes to the senior bowl where the receivers are better quality and looks much better

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You gotta admit.....when you watch the film his pass targets didnt do him any favors.....

 

Then he goes to the senior bowl where the receivers are better quality and looks much better

Yes. His practice tape wasn't that good though, got better as the week went on. I don't take much from the game itself. 

 

Can fans, media, front office, and coaches be patient with Allen? That's the biggest question. One thing for sure is Pegula, Beane, and and McDermott picked this QB. So I don't think we will see coaches and management clash over Josh Allen like we did with JP Losman and EJ Manuel. Everyone will be committed to Allen unlike past 1st round QB's. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by TheTruthHurts