Domdab99 Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 So I've been doing a lot of mocks because I'm a loser with no life, and I've found what I think is an interesting opportunity should the first few picks of the draft decidedly DO NOT go the Bills' way. The mocks I do allow trades, and I've found that when the worst happens and the Bills cannot trade-up into the top 6 - AND Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, and Jackson are all picked in the first 6 or 7 picks, TRADING DOWN in the first round give us a QB AND some interesting picks. For example: Bills Picks Picks: 1:22 1:23 2:11 2:21 2:23 3:1 3:32 4:21 5:29 6:13 Pick Player Pos College 1:22 Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St. 1:23 Calvin Ridley WR Alabama 2:11 Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise St. 2:21 Sam Hubbard EDGE Ohio St. 2:23 Tim Settle NT Virginia Tech 3:1 D.J. Moore WR Maryland 3:32 Mason Cole C Michigan 4:21 Deon Cain WR Clemson 5:29 Tony Brown CB Alabama 6:13 Davin Bellamy EDGE GeorgiaTrades trades: Acquired via (NE): 1:23, 2:11 Traded away: 1:12 ************* Now, I'm not saying this is the best draft, and I doubt we would ever make a trade with the Patriots, but this is just one draft that allows the Bills to still get a QB this draft while filling other roster spots. You can see that we traded 12 to the Pats for their first and #43. Not bad. We still pick the last remaining "top 6" QB, as well as getting some really great help in other spots. Here's another example: Pick Player Pos College 1:22 Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St. 1:25 Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama 2:21 Sam Hubbard EDGE Ohio St. 2:23 James Washington WR Oklahoma St. 2:25 D.J. Moore WR Maryland 3:1 Malik Jefferson LB Texas 3:25 Brian O'Neill OT Pitt 3:32 Fred Warner LB Brigham Young 4:21 Deon Cain WR Clemson 5:29 Kameron Kelly CB San Diego St. 6:13 Brian Allen G Michigan St. Acquired Via Traded Away 1:25, 2:25, 3:25 TEN 1:12 We traded down with TENN for what you see above. Anyway....if our wanted QBs are all gone - and we aren't going to reach for an Allen or Rudolph at 12, it wouldn't be horrible totrade down 12 and pick up more picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakin Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Yes, you are a loser. But seriously...if you want a QB like Rudolph, why not pick him at 12 and trade the 22. Why risk someone jumping you again and grabbing him? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bakin said: Yes, you are a loser. But seriously...if you want a QB like Rudolph, why not pick him at 12 and trade the 22. Why risk someone jumping you again and grabbing him? Because Rudolph is not a first round QB...choosing him at 12 would be horrible. This is a "worst-case" scenario. I realize that if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson are all chosen in the top 10, that the Bills (and other teams) will likely panic and trade up to get either Rudolph or Allen. Now, if it's Allen that's picked in the top 10, and Jackson falls to us at 12, I think picking him would be fine, if still a bit of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakin Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 I dunno. Now you are picking a QB just to pick a QB. I would go BPA in round 1 and see what’s left in Round 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bakin said: I dunno. Now you are picking a QB just to pick a QB. I would go BPA in round 1 and see what’s left in Round 2. I can see that...but if you don't pick Rudolph here, you're going to be choosing Lauletta or Falk in a lower round. So it depends on what you're willing to do at QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Danger warning. The QB-in-the-top-5 crowd will be coming at you in the morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Danger warning. The QB-in-the-top-5 crowd will be coming at you in the morning. Hard to get one when they've either all been picked in the top 5 and/or the top 5 teams refuse to trade down with the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 3 hours ago, Domdab99 said: Because Rudolph is not a first round QB...choosing him at 12 would be horrible. This is a "worst-case" scenario. I realize that if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson are all chosen in the top 10, that the Bills (and other teams) will likely panic and trade up to get either Rudolph or Allen. Now, if it's Allen that's picked in the top 10, and Jackson falls to us at 12, I think picking him would be fine, if still a bit of a stretch. Choosing a QB who can't play is horrible no matter what round you draft him in. Not picking a QB who can play is a horrible decision no matter what round you make it in. No one is going to applaud you if you put a QB on your roster who fails just because you didn't take him until the 3rd round as all you have accomplished is to waste a pick and fail to fill the most important hole in the roster. And you are not going to garner praise for passing up a QB who ends up being a long time starter because he went too early. The cardinal sins of the draft are 1) drafting a bust and 2) passing on a starter. If you think Mason Rudolph or Darnold or Allen or Lauletta or whoever is a future star, do what you must to get him on your roster. The argument for drafting Rudolph should begin with "I think this guy is going to get us to the promised land because..." If it begins with "We can get him cheap...." then I think maybe you are focusing on getting a good grade on your mock draft rather than winning football games. It is McDermott's and Beane's job to figure out the odds of each of these guys making it in this league and then do what they can to get the best of them on the roster and, failing that, to get the next best guy on to the roster and so on. If they are making decisions based on a belief that "hey, its all a crap shoot" so lets just "take a flyer" on so and so then they should both be fired. Imagine making a hiring decision at work that way. "Well, its all just a crap shoot so I took a flyer on the guy who was my 10th choice because I got him for $2.00/hr. cheaper than my top choice." Brilliant. Shrewd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 4 hours ago, Domdab99 said: Because Rudolph is not a first round QB...choosing him at 12 would be horrible. This is a "worst-case" scenario. I realize that if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson are all chosen in the top 10, that the Bills (and other teams) will likely panic and trade up to get either Rudolph or Allen. Now, if it's Allen that's picked in the top 10, and Jackson falls to us at 12, I think picking him would be fine, if still a bit of a stretch. Why do all the experts have Allen going 1 or 2, and why is the Politically Correct thing to say on TBD to not take him anywhere? I hope the Bills draft him just for the entertainment value it will be on this board. It will be better than the Tyrod tussles on here. GO BILLS! DRAFT ALLEN! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Danger warning. The QB-in-the-top-5 crowd will be coming at you in the morning. There are quite a bit "fill the holes" and "trade back" people on this board, and a horde of threads with that mindset. I don't see why you think you are being persecuted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 4 hours ago, Domdab99 said: Hard to get one when they've either all been picked in the top 5 and/or the top 5 teams refuse to trade down with the Bills. All damnable lies according to them. If the Bills do not pick in the top 5 it will be due to incompetence, being tight with picks, or lack of manhood in the matter. There is no excuse even if the cost is way out of wack with the projected value. They are all HOF QB's who will be around for 15 years or more so two full drafts should be no problem as payment according to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heff Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 No way we trade with New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmotionallyUnstable Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 I find it hard to believe the Bills would find someone willing to move up to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 I like trade up AND trade down scenarios. Trade down, get value and lots of important pieces. Trade up and get our guy, no matter the cost. QB is soooooo important. #cantwait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 We can have a really good draft if we do trades the other team wouldn't agree to and drafted players who'll likely be gone 20 picks before our pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Domdab99 said: So I've been doing a lot of mocks because I'm a loser with no life, and I've found what I think is an interesting opportunity should the first few picks of the draft decidedly DO NOT go the Bills' way. The mocks I do allow trades, and I've found that when the worst happens and the Bills cannot trade-up into the top 6 - AND Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, and Jackson are all picked in the first 6 or 7 picks, TRADING DOWN in the first round give us a QB AND some interesting picks. For example: Bills Picks Picks: 1:22 1:23 2:11 2:21 2:23 3:1 3:32 4:21 5:29 6:13 Pick Player Pos College 1:22 Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St. 1:23 Calvin Ridley WR Alabama 2:11 Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise St. 2:21 Sam Hubbard EDGE Ohio St. 2:23 Tim Settle NT Virginia Tech 3:1 D.J. Moore WR Maryland 3:32 Mason Cole C Michigan 4:21 Deon Cain WR Clemson 5:29 Tony Brown CB Alabama 6:13 Davin Bellamy EDGE GeorgiaTrades trades: Acquired via (NE): 1:23, 2:11 Traded away: 1:12 ************* Now, I'm not saying this is the best draft, and I doubt we would ever make a trade with the Patriots, but this is just one draft that allows the Bills to still get a QB this draft while filling other roster spots. You can see that we traded 12 to the Pats for their first and #43. Not bad. We still pick the last remaining "top 6" QB, as well as getting some really great help in other spots. Here's another example: Pick Player Pos College 1:22 Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St. 1:25 Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama 2:21 Sam Hubbard EDGE Ohio St. 2:23 James Washington WR Oklahoma St. 2:25 D.J. Moore WR Maryland 3:1 Malik Jefferson LB Texas 3:25 Brian O'Neill OT Pitt 3:32 Fred Warner LB Brigham Young 4:21 Deon Cain WR Clemson 5:29 Kameron Kelly CB San Diego St. 6:13 Brian Allen G Michigan St. Acquired Via Traded Away 1:25, 2:25, 3:25 TEN 1:12 We traded down with TENN for what you see above. Anyway....if our wanted QBs are all gone - and we aren't going to reach for an Allen or Rudolph at 12, it wouldn't be horrible totrade down 12 and pick up more picks. In option one, I don’t see your 2nd through 6th picks still being there. But, I’m wrong a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebrastripes Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 1 hour ago, What a Tuel said: There are quite a bit "fill the holes" and "trade back" people on this board, and a horde of threads with that mindset. I don't see why you think you are being persecuted. It's the "snowflake" mentality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said: I find it hard to believe the Bills would find someone willing to move up to 12. it will be easy to, if the goal is to move us out of a spot so that team can get the qb that we're too stupid to take when we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Domdab99 said: Because Rudolph is not a first round QB...choosing him at 12 would be horrible. This is a "worst-case" scenario. I realize that if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson are all chosen in the top 10, that the Bills (and other teams) will likely panic and trade up to get either Rudolph or Allen. Now, if it's Allen that's picked in the top 10, and Jackson falls to us at 12, I think picking him would be fine, if still a bit of a stretch. I never understand this thinking. If a player isn't good, why draft him at all? A bust is a bust in any round. The whole reach-vs-value thing is a game draft geeks play that is essentially meaningless when it comes to winning football games.... which is what we are trying to do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 2 hours ago, RochesterRob said: All damnable lies according to them. If the Bills do not pick in the top 5 it will be due to incompetence, being tight with picks, or lack of manhood in the matter. There is no excuse even if the cost is way out of wack with the projected value. They are all HOF QB's who will be around for 15 years or more so two full drafts should be no problem as payment according to them. Then there’s the other side. Same people who told us such things as: ”All EJ needs is more time.” ”Keep Whaley, it’s not his fault.” ”Great move putting Marv in charge, he”ll turn this around.” ”Russ is a genius.” ”Ralph’s forgotten more than you’ll ever know about football.” and my favorite, ”Just be happy you still have a team.” There’s plenty of reasons why, after all these years, the majority is farting in their general direction. DARE TO BE GREAT, McBEANE! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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