What it costs to move up

[maryland-bills-fan]

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1^st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2^nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value.

 

The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year.

 

Pick.............. value..........running sum

 

12 ...............1200 ..................1200

23 ................760 ...................1960

53............... 370.................... 2330

56................ 340................... 2670

65 ...............265 ...................2935

96 ...............116 ...................3051

117............. 60 .....................3111

 

2019 picks??  finish in 16th place ??  Discount at 50%?

1st rounder......................500 points

2nd rounder....................220 points

 

====================================================================

 

Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick

 

team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up

================================================================

Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1^st round

 

Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2^nd round

 

Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right.

                                                                                  1st round            2nd round                  3rd round                        4th round

 

Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56           ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,              

 

Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,            ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12,      ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96             ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,        56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

fish 11

 

=======================================================================================

Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB.

 

At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2^nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board.

 

So what happens  lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4^th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[DFT]

About three fitty...

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, DFT said:

About three fitty...

I got a coupon 

[ddaryl]

Buy 1 get 1 free sale, but act now

[BuffaloBillyG]

BOGO Cheese anyone?

[row_33]

because what we can take a pound of sawdust from past drafts and spin it into gold

 

 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I really thought the time between free agency and the draft was going to fly by. Boy was I wrong. This is taking forrrreevvvvvverrrrr...

[DrDawkinstein]

Good lord, when do you go back to school?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Crusade much?

 

[racketmaster]

I’m at the point where I don’t care if the Bills give up all of their picks this year for #2, if it is Sam Darnold. He’s the apple of the Bills eye and who will care about those 2nd and 3rd round picks 5-10 years later. If you think he is the guy who can be here for the next 15 years, there will be plenty of future drafts to build around him. 

[BillsVet]

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I’m at the point where I don’t care if the Bills give up all of their picks this year for #2, if it is Sam Darnold. He’s the apple of the Bills eye and who will care about those 2nd and 3rd round picks 5-10 years later. If you think he is the guy who can be here for the next 15 years, there will be plenty of future drafts to build around him. 

 Yes, it would cost this entire draft (with those extra 3 players in the first 3 rounds) and next year's 2nd round pick. The wide receivers would scare nobody.  We have only one starting type linebacker and the offensive line is old and might completely implode.  It would be ugly football for at least the next two years.   I wonder if the city and if a NFL team in the city could stand that.

[4merper4mer]

29 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

Crusade much?

 

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

 

 

love u too bb

 

[Putin]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1^st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2^nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value.

 

The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year.

 

Pick.............. value..........running sum

 

12 ...............1200 ..................1200

23 ................760 ...................1960

53............... 370.................... 2330

56................ 340................... 2670

65 ...............265 ...................2935

96 ...............116 ...................3051

117............. 60 .....................3111

 

2019 picks??  finish in 16th place ??  Discount at 50%?

1st rounder......................500 points

2nd rounder....................220 points

 

====================================================================

 

Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick

 

team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up

================================================================

Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1^st round

 

Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2^nd round

 

Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right.

                                                                                  1st round            2nd round                  3rd round                        4th round

 

Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56           ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,              

 

Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,            ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12,      ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96             ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53        ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                  ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12       ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,        56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,                   ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117

 

fish 11

 

=======================================================================================

Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB.

 

At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2^nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board.

 

So what happens  lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4^th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

 

It’s good that you brought up the Jets at #3 

not me or anyone else here for that matter even thought about the  possibility of making a deal with the Jets ,  who knows since we’re in the same division we could even get a discount to move up !!!

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just now, Putin said:

It’s good that you brought up the Jets at #3 

not me or anyone else here for that matter even thought about the  possibility of making a deal with the Jets ,  who knows since we’re in the same division we could even get a discount to move up !!!

I hear they would throw in a bushel basket of footballs as well.

[slaphappy]

13 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

The waaaaaaaaahhhhhh I want a QB crowd doesn't like math much so they Alinsky people talking about it.  I never saw you as a commie.

You have no idea how excited I am that we can call people commie on here.

[maryland-bills-fan]

54 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Good lord, when do you go back to school?

  Naw I'm finished with school.   Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4?  So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

  Naw I'm finished with school.   Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4?  So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

  Denial is one heck of a drug for the trade up at all costs crowd.  I could see some of these people dispensing advice to other people on important life matters while their own lives are a tire fire.  The Colts pick at 6 given your price would be very tempting IF the Bills were 100 percent convinced that was their guy.  Any doubts and walk away from doing it.  The Manziel thread makes me think that there is all too often a wishful thinking stance teams take with top problematic prospects in that they expect a person to change their life long ways even thinking that money will now be the carrot.  I've seen too many down here in everyday America throw away money and marriage because they could not learn self control and self discipline.  I've seen too many people in a marriage think that they can change their partner and that certainly happens less than 50 percent of the time.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just want to point out the Bills have pick 22... not 23.

 

Carry on.