Bills Aren't Necessarily Searching for THE Best QB

[Kelly101]

1 hour ago, jmc12290 said:

Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor.

 

There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom.  Point blank, period.

How can he be considered Legitimate? 

Bills were 31st ranked in passing, cant be all on everything else.

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

I do believe Darnold is good enough to warrant moving up to number 1. I would be willing to trade 4 1st round selections for Darnold because I think he is a franchise guy. 

No no and NO

[Punching Bag]

None of these QBs are a Manning but some are 

This article still applies and Johnny Football was a bust.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-10-worst-first-round-quarterbacks-drafted-since-2000/

[Shaw66]

If you're going to analyze it in terms of probabilities, of course, the probabilities are interesting.   If there's a 50% chance that Darnold will be a true franchise, a 40% chance that Mayfield will and a 20% chance that Rudolph will, drafting Mayfield AND Rudolph is slightly more likely to get you a franchise guy, and you can do that burning less draft capital.  

 

The point is, even if we all agreed who the best QB prospect is, it isn't necessarily the case that the smart move is to trade up to draft him.  

[BringBackOrton]

22 minutes ago, Kelly101 said:

How can he be considered Legitimate? 

Bills were 31st ranked in passing, cant be all on everything else.

Taylor is bottom of the barrel but he's still a starter.

[Kwai San]

14 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

None of these QBs are a Manning but some are 

This article still applies and Johnny Football was a bust.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-10-worst-first-round-quarterbacks-drafted-since-2000/

 

I'm no Johnny Football fan AT all - but I say 2 things worked against Johnny......being on the Browns and his perverse affinity for the party life.  Had he kept his head on his shoulders, the bottle from his lips and the nose from the blow - the warning signs were all there for ANYONE who wanted to see them he might have been a decent player.  He was a pretty decent player but he had his demons......AND the Browns.

[BadLandsMeanie]

54 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

No its actually not like that at all. The franchise isn't going out of business if the draft doesn't work out. We will still play again, being wrong or unlucky in the draft isn't a death sentence. It has happened before and your analogy is just more hyperbole.

In my analogy the player isn't the franchise. The player is the general manager. 

Anyway it isn't hyperbole. It is sensible. It may not be the way you or anyone else wants to go. But it is a valid approach.

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If you're going to analyze it in terms of probabilities, of course, the probabilities are interesting.   If there's a 50% chance that Darnold will be a true franchise, a 40% chance that Mayfield will and a 20% chance that Rudolph will, drafting Mayfield AND Rudolph is slightly more likely to get you a franchise guy, and you can do that burning less draft capital.  

 

The point is, even if we all agreed who the best QB prospect is, it isn't necessarily the case that the smart move is to trade up to draft him.  

Exactly.

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

Or how you end up with Phillip Rivers. 

To an extent, and maybe I misunderstood - but if the idea is to take a qb to appease the team, or fans, or whomever - unless you really like a guy it's more picking from the scraps if he isn't your top guy per se but just someone who fits the need. Tough to do if ur job could depend on it

[BringBackOrton]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If you're going to analyze it in terms of probabilities, of course, the probabilities are interesting.   If there's a 50% chance that Darnold will be a true franchise, a 40% chance that Mayfield will and a 20% chance that Rudolph will, drafting Mayfield AND Rudolph is slightly more likely to get you a franchise guy, and you can do that burning less draft capital.  

 

The point is, even if we all agreed who the best QB prospect is, it isn't necessarily the case that the smart move is to trade up to draft him.  

Players have ceilings and floors though.  You take the player who has the highest ceiling and most acceptable floor.

[Nihilarian]

28 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Even '83 was tricky for the guys who actually had to do the picking.  Blackledge was the top rated QB by more than a couple of draft magazines.  Remember that in 1983 there was nothing close to the media coverage that the draft receives today.  You had a few magazines and ESPN where Kiper was still more a curiosity than a revered "expert."  

Back then they had pro football weekly which was a godsend if you loved pro football and nothing else came close. 

 

There were reasons that Kelly and Marino fell in that year's draft. Kelly with his severe shoulder separation and Marino with his reported weed abuse. Both were winners in College though. 

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Players have ceilings and floors though.  You take the player who has the highest ceiling and most acceptable floor.

That's my point.   Of course, where anyone's floor is is impossible to determine.  But what I'm saying is that if there are four, for example, above the floor, going after best isn't necessarily the smart move.   

 

It's all unknowable, of course, and Beane's going to do the best he can.   If he trades up, some people will like it and some won't.  In fact, many of those in favor of trading up will be disappointed, because Beane won't take THEIR guy. 

 

SOME of us know what is the right thing to do.   WHO those people are will be known only several years from now.   

[RochesterRob]

11 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Back then they had pro football weekly which was a godsend if you loved pro football and nothing else came close. 

 

There were reasons that Kelly and Marino fell in that year's draft. Kelly with his severe shoulder separation and Marino with his reported weed abuse. Both were winners in College though. 

  Yep, PFW was pretty good and I believe there was Smith and Street as well.

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You are in Las Vegas at the blackjack tables and based on the cards you have and the ones you have seen out you believe that you have a 60% chance to win and a 40% chance to lose this hand. 

 

Do you bet your entire bankroll, and hitchhike home if you lose?

 

Or do you bet part of your fund and then steadily play the odds using your skill to assure that you have the advantage over time? 

 

Both approaches have merit but the more steady pace evens out the randomness of betting it all on a one shot advantage.

 

I think the player who bets it all on big shots, will eventually wind up hitchhiking home. And the player who consistently and steadily plays his advantage while allowing for losses, will make his living at playing blackjack.

 

I think McBean is the steady player and so I agree with the OP.

 

 

 

I understand Illinois stopped being a part of the lottery system. Although on a longer term, it's proved that lotto benefits the state the variations of returns could have bankrupted the state. I agree in general with your post and the OP but we could soon venture into deep waters.

"Trusting the process" means you have to have enough political capital built up with the ownership and with the fans to suffer setbacks. The Pegulas themselves - with the failures of both franchises - have little left in town. 

Best HC since Marv Levy and the best GM since Polian. Plenty of rope from me.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I would have to look but I recall someone on WGR said that the reason they traded back last year when they could have grabbed Mahomes was because they were going to address QB in 2018.  I don't know if it was directly from McBeane or just wgr speculation but they acted like it was a "done deal" that they would be trying to draft their future starting QB.

 

 

Unless of course they meant AJ or it was just making it look like they had a plan but they didn't.  Who knows?

Plans have to be reassessed when conditions change.  When they traded back last year, They thought that their own(Bills’) pick would be much earlier than it turns out to be (21).  Further, the 2017 NCAA season was played and the Bills’ opinions of the QBs in this class may have changed (for better or worse).

 

There are other teams that have (had in the Jets’ case) that are also desperate to get a QB prospect and that is driving up the price to move up and also locking up the early picks such that it will be hard to find a trade partner early enough to get one of the best prospects.

 

i am virtually sure that their plan was to use their extra picks to move up for a QB, but competition, changing conditions and opinions may preclude them fro being able to execute that plan.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

I do believe Darnold is good enough to warrant moving up to number 1. I would be willing to trade 4 1st round selections for Darnold because I think he is a franchise guy. 

 

Hes is clearly the closest to a slam dunk in this class. 

[Lurker]

12 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Yep, PFW was pretty good and I believe there was Smith and Street as well.

 

Street and Smith was nowhere as near as good as PFW.   It was just a compilation of content from NFL beat reporters (i.e., Larry Felser-types).   PFW, on the other hand, had the all-time GOAT of draftnicks, Joel Buchsbaum--who was nearly on par with scouts/personnel evaluators in terms of the amount of film work he did.    Boy, I miss his draft guide, which I devoured every year around this time...

,

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Plans have to be reassessed when conditions change.  When they traded back last year, They thought that their own(Bills’) pick would be much earlier than it turns out to be (21).  Further, the 2017 NCAA season was played and the Bills’ opinions of the QBs in this class may have changed (for better or worse).

 

There are other teams that have (had in the Jets’ case) that are also desperate to get a QB prospect and that is driving up the price to move up and also locking up the early picks such that it will be hard to find a trade partner early enough to get one of the best prospects.

 

i am virtually sure that their plan was to use their extra picks to move up for a QB, but competition, changing conditions and opinions may preclude them fro being able to execute that plan.

Yes, yes, yes.

 

If Cousins signed with NYJ and Alex Smith went to CLE or DEN things would be a lot different.

[BadLandsMeanie]

I wish the draftniks would break down the QB by round results more thoughtfully than they do.

For one example is there any difference between results when a team takes a QB at 1 or 2 or 3 because they paid a kings ransom to get there, and those who just were at the that slot based on their record.

 

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  2018 - 2 1st's

 

  2019 - 1 1st

 

  2020 - 1 1st

 

  That is what you are talking and no thanks to that.  

On the whole I agree with much of what you've said elsewhere ... but if that was all it took, to get 1 overall, then yes. 

Because if you are right, you are doubly right. You not only get that ONE guy at that ONE position, you also deny him to your divisional opponent and get presumably the next gen for your division at the time the Big Dawg is seeing a setting sun. With another 3 second round picks and coming off the second best 2017 draft, not to mention $100MM in cap space in 2019 ... it's playing chess instead of checkers.

But only, only to take the first QB off the docks. Its too much to pay for a 6' QB that grabs his crotch at #4 or #5. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Hes is clearly the closest to a slam dunk in this class. 

Because you think so has no relevance to what reality will be.  Clearly???

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Because you think so has no relevance to what reality will be.  Clearly???

 

Clearly that’s the concensus at large is what meant. 

 

He’s nearly unanimous as the the top prospect.

 

It’s not my opinion.

 

I don’t belive any of these guys are worth trading up for and I belive bills will have a shot at some decent prospects where they sit. But he is the nearly unanimous top prospect in the class. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Clearly that’s the concensus at large is what meant. 

 

He’s nearly unanimous as the the top prospect.

 

It’s not my opinion. 

I get you now.  I like Rosen myself.  But they each have positives and negatives.  I think a lot of their decision will be based on their interviews vs.  their on field performance

[Tyrod's friend]

4 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I wish the draftniks would break down the QB by round results more thoughtfully than they do.

For one example is there any difference between results when a team takes a QB at 1 or 2 or 3 because they paid a kings ransom to get there, and those who just were at the that slot based on their record.

 

I don't think there's enough of a sample to make a conclusion. Really the game changed in 2012 with the rookie cap change, and from where I sit, you're a bit nuts to draw any conclusions about 2 years of football. I mean ... does anyone here know if Watson or Wentz are going to return 100%? Wentz is a violent player and not every big QB gets to play as long as Big Ben. Mahomes hasn't thrown a truly meaningful pass yet.

So you have 2012-2015.  

Call back in 2021 and I think you can make a decision.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I get you now.  I like Rosen myself.  But they each have positives and negatives.  I think a lot of their decision will be based on their interviews vs.  their on field performance

 

If  Rosen is there at 12, take him (if he passed the personality sniff test to bills brass) AND get white or Rudolph in the third or fourth if still around. 

 

I want ant to see those other picks to get some stars in the d front 7 along with some o line talent and a fast wr

Edited March 22, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor.

 

There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom.  Point blank, period.

System fit as well

[The Wiz]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Plans have to be reassessed when conditions change.  When they traded back last year, They thought that their own(Bills’) pick would be much earlier than it turns out to be (21).  Further, the 2017 NCAA season was played and the Bills’ opinions of the QBs in this class may have changed (for better or worse).

 

There are other teams that have (had in the Jets’ case) that are also desperate to get a QB prospect and that is driving up the price to move up and also locking up the early picks such that it will be hard to find a trade partner early enough to get one of the best prospects.

 

i am virtually sure that their plan was to use their extra picks to move up for a QB, but competition, changing conditions and opinions may preclude them fro being able to execute that plan.

Plans change, sure.  Do you think the bills were trying to be in a better position to draft (higher than 21) or do you think they were trying to win football games or planning on the chiefs to be awful?

 

I get that where they are changes things, along with how the 2017 class ended up, but they have enough in this draft to move to #2 or #1 if they really wanted to.  It's just a matter of how much is being asked for those picks and whether or not they are willing to give up the farm.

 

Even if they valued someone enough to give up futures, that's their choice.  We just have to wait and see and either applaud or call for their heads.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Well, there aren't awards for being wrong.

From that view point it would be worse to give up all those picks and be wrong so lets just not be wrong what ever we do.  If they believe they found a transforming talent go get him.  But don't make it so you can't get the other pieces.  A lot of free agent money next year tho.

3 hours ago, fansince88 said:

My point is we dont know what they plan. All we know is what we know. We know that last year they felt they needed to upgrade from TT. This year we dont know what their plan is except it doesnt include TT.

It did include TT they used him to get 65

[BadLandsMeanie]

15 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

But only, only to take the first QB off the docks. Its too much to pay for a 6' QB that grabs his crotch at #4 or #5. 

Well in light of recent scandals about how so many prominent men have been behaving, I don't think it is so bad because Mayfield was only grabbing his own crotch.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

They'll take the guy they really want and not reach for one.  And I doubt they think there are 5 franchise guys in this draft. 

If they did they would have traded for 3.  I think they are evaluating still because the price is really high.  They want to be certain.

[The Wiz]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

If they did they would have traded for 3.  I think they are evaluating still because the price is really high.  They want to be certain.

They are probably letting the market cool after the Jets trade for sure.  I think they can make a deal with NYG closer to or on draft day.

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Plans change, sure.  Do you think the bills were trying to be in a better position to draft (higher than 21) or do you think they were trying to win football games or planning on the chiefs to be awful?

 

I get that where they are changes things, along with how the 2017 class ended up, but they have enough in this draft to move to #2 or #1 if they really wanted to.  It's just a matter of how much is being asked for those picks and whether or not they are willing to give up the farm.

 

Even if they valued someone enough to give up futures, that's their choice.  We just have to wait and see and either applaud or call for their heads.

That is not exactly clear.  Nobody knows if the 1st or 2nd pick is for sale.  Why would Cleveland trade pick 1?  They also need a QB prospect and they already have more high draft picks than do the Bills.  As for the Giants, I don’t know why they would not sit tight at 2 and take their successor for Manning.  

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

If  Rosen is there at 12, take him (if he passed the personality sniff test to bills brass) AND get white or Rudolph in the third or fourth if still around. 

 

I want ant to see those other picks to get some stars in the d front 7 along with some o line talent and a fast wr

Just a gut feeling, but 5 years from now I think a guy taken day 2or 3, like White, turns out to be the best QB in this class.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, jr1 said:

I hope they don't draft a QB for the entertainment on the forum

They have scouts all over this board to gather information. 

1-Because they know there are top scouts that go to high level business meetings.

2-They are really concerned about what we think they should do.  They don't want to get in trouble with the posters on TSW.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

I would have to look but I recall someone on WGR said that the reason they traded back last year when they could have grabbed Mahomes was because they were going to address QB in 2018.  I don't know if it was directly from McBeane or just wgr speculation but they acted like it was a "done deal" that they would be trying to draft their future starting QB.

 

 

Unless of course they meant AJ or it was just making it look like they had a plan but they didn't.  Who knows?

 

There's also the real possibility that they just didn't like either Mahomes or Watson enough to draft one of them at #10.  It's even possible that they may not think any of the QBs in this draft are worth the #12 pick much less trading up further.  As others have said, we don't know how they have the QBs rated, and trading up to #12 might have actually been with the intention to have a shot at somebody like Roquan Smith.

 

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

The reason why everyone has a different favorite is because all of them have flaws and each team has different ideas on which ones they can live with and which ones they can't.

 

5 years from now this will be looked back at as the most over hyped QB class in NFL history

 

2011 was supposed to be the QB draft to rival '83 and '04 ... the best QBs to come out of that draft were Cam Newton, Andy Dalton (2nd round), and Tyrod Taylor (6th round).

 

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

 

or another super class like 1983....elway, Kelly, marino

 

Only in your dreams.  None of the QBs in this class are so good that they stand out among their fellow top QB prospects, much less among all the prospects in the draft.  One or two may turn out to be decent starting NFL QBs but it's doubtful that there's any even 1 HOFer much less 3 among them ... and that's true of all of the QB classes, large or small, except for 1983 and 2004.

 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That is not exactly clear.  Nobody knows if the 1st or 2nd pick is for sale.  Why would Cleveland trade pick 1?  They also need a QB prospect and they already have more high draft picks than do the Bills.  As for the Giants, I don’t know why they would not sit tight at 2 and take their successor for Manning.  

Simple they want to win now, and not pick a guy to ride the bench for a season or two

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I would have to look but I recall someone on WGR said that the reason they traded back last year when they could have grabbed Mahomes was because they were going to address QB in 2018.  I don't know if it was directly from McBeane or just wgr speculation but they acted like it was a "done deal" that they would be trying to draft their future starting QB.

 

 

Unless of course they meant AJ or it was just making it look like they had a plan but they didn't.  Who knows?

Beane wasn't the GM.  From what I read Whaley wanted a QB.  He really liked Trubisky but McD vetoed it.

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That is not exactly clear.  Nobody knows if the 1st or 2nd pick is for sale.  Why would Cleveland trade pick 1?  They also need a QB prospect and they already have more high draft picks than do the Bills.  As for the Giants, I don’t know why they would not sit tight at 2 and take their successor for Manning.  

Everything is for sale for the right price.  

 

Cleaveland has pick #4.  They can give up #1 if they don't value the QB's the same as other teams.  They also traded for TT (I'm assuming as a bridge QB but you never know).

 

The Giants could end up with 3-5 extra picks in the first 3 rounds and possibly a pick or 2 next year if the bills decided to throw everything at them.  That's why they wouldn't sit tight at 2. They could basically get a new set of starters for a QB that will probably not even play unless he's lights out. 

 

If Eli is the problem and they don't replace him, they stockpile picks and can throw him under the bus in 2 years while they sit on a top pick next year and have another #1 pick to compliment him if we go that route.

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Beane wasn't the GM.  From what I read Whaley wanted a QB.  He really liked Trubisky but McD vetoed it.

It was a comment after the draft, not during or before.  Again, I remember hearing it on the radio and don't know exactly when it happened but it was after Whaley was gone.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Just a gut feeling, but 5 years from now I think a guy taken day 2or 3, like White, turns out to be the best QB in this class.

 

Certainly wouldn’t be the first time.  When I start listing off the best QBs in the league in my view it takes a bunch drafted later than where the bills are picking. And when I look for championship rings i find 2 out of 8, Ben just barely  at 11

Edited March 23, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I agree with this and I think the only reason for trade talks is if the Browns and Giants don't want Darnold as their #1 guy.  Then and only then it would make some semblance of sense to trade the farm for that elite QB.

 

Darnold at 7.0 which is what they graded Wentz at. All the other QB's grade pretty close with Rosen at 6.1, Allen & Mayfield at 6.0. Jackson at 5.9 and Rudolph at 5.6. Like the 1983 draft, I think we could see six QB's go in the first round. Of all those 83 QBs, #1 Elway, #7 Blackledge, #14 Kelly, #15 Eason, #24 O'Brien, #28, Marino. Only one was a bum, 2 were starters and three were HoFes. 

 

What the difference between this year and past years is that this GM/scouting dept finally knows what they are doing and aren't just grabbing for straws like the team did with JP Losman to fill a need. What the team also needs to do that they failed at in past years is to truly develop a young QB. If they get Darnold I could see starting him day one and all the rest all need time to develop.

 

I wouldn't be unhappy should the team not move up if Darnold is already gone. Then take one of the top four at #12 if one should drop and if not take BPA at #12 and Mason Rudolph at #22. 

 

What's interesting to me is why the Pittsburgh Steelers have so much interest in Rudolph. 

Because he is a good QB.  Better than most give him credit for.

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Beane wasn't the GM.  From what I read Whaley wanted a QB.  He really liked Trubisky but McD vetoed it.

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/josh_rosen_to_the_buffalo_bills_is_what_ive_heard_repeatedly_says_eric_galko.html

 

"A year ago, the Buffalo Bills were linked to Mitch Trubisky, partially by me. (It was) confirmed many times throughout the process... Doug Whaley (was) their GM at the time in Buffalo. I was told him and part of the front office really liked Trubisky. I think that's well-founded. They were higher on Trubisky than we were, but Trubisky looks pretty good. I think it was a good decision to be aggressive towards him.

 

Although Whaley was on board with getting Trubisky, Galko said head coach Sean McDermott decided to kick the can on adding a quarterback high in the draft.

 

"But when Sean McDermott got there, (he) really won over a lot of that front office, a lot of that ownership group and they believed in McDermott. And McDermott believed in Tyrod Taylor and he said, 'Hey, let's kick the can on drafting a quarterback right now.' They didn't move up for Trubisky. They moved back and the Chiefs go up and get Pat Mahomes and they took Tre'Davious White, which they're definitely happy with, but they passed on basically two quarterback opportunities they had and that's not counting Deshaun Watson either..."

 

But I think they feel they're a quarterback away from being a consistent playoff team and getting back there for many years.