TigerJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Dan Lavoie, resident draftnik at Buffalo Rumblings has just done an article on what it might cost the Bills to move up into position to take one of the top QBs. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/1/16/16892834/buffalo-bills-trade-up-2018-nfl-draft-pick-dave-gettleman-kansas-city-chiefs-quarterback-value-chart He uses the 20 draft pick value chart that most would say is obsolete, yet there really is no other guideline available. He acknowledges this, but it at least provides a guideline/starting point for thinking about a trade. In essence, Buffalo's two first round picks could get them to 7th overall, trading with Tampa Bay. Adding their own second round pick takes them to 4th overall. Adding their second second round pick takes them to 3rd overall. Getting to the Giants' 2nd overall pick would require all of the above plus the Bills first round pick in 2019 or possibly Cordy Glenn. Of course, Buffalo isn't going to make a decision any time soon. They will also be looking in free agency. What they do in free agency will have a strong effect on draft strategy. I thought this would help those who advocate trading to assess the practicality of getting to certain levels in round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Here's what I posted yesterday, which utilized 2 different trade value charts: Posted yesterday at 10:02 AM Okay, so the major assumptions I'm making here is that no players are involved in the trades, and I have not considered the teams in these picks or their needs. Based on estimates of the picks we will have, here's what we've got: 1st overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we cannot get the 1st overall pick - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, 2-24, Future 2nd, and 3-31 2nd overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, Future 2nd, 3-31 3rd overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, 3-31 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, 2-21, 2-24 4th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, 3-31 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, Future 2nd, 3-31 5th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, Future 2nd 10th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, 2-21, 4-21 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 3-31 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 or we could have started Peterman and got it for free. hmmmmmmmmmmmm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marv's Neighbor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Don't move up! All the "top QB's" don't turn out to be top QB's!. Remember EJ, RJ etc.?? Maybe it's the "J" initial curse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Here's what I posted yesterday, which utilized 2 different trade value charts: Posted yesterday at 10:02 AM Okay, so the major assumptions I'm making here is that no players are involved in the trades, and I have not considered the teams in these picks or their needs. Based on estimates of the picks we will have, here's what we've got: 1st overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we cannot get the 1st overall pick - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, 2-24, Future 2nd, and 3-31 2nd overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, Future 2nd, 3-31 3rd overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-21, 3-31 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-21, 1-22, 2-21, 2-24 4th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, 3-31 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, Future 2nd, 3-31 5th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 2-24, Future 2nd 10th overall pick: - Based on the new trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, 2-21, 4-21 - Based on the old trade chart we would need to give: - 1-22, Future 1st, 3-31 Thanks, Hokie. I think that's a workable minimum. It would make some sense to move up 11 slots (to 10th maybe) at the cost of a 2nd and 3rd or 4th, if there's a QB there we think highly of. I would not give a future first for it. I think it's a realistic starting place to think that to move into one of the first 2 draft slots, we would need to give up 3 1sts (our two this year, and next), 3 2nds, and a third. We have options but D*mn that's a steep price, for something that historically, is about even odds to get right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Original Byrd Man Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said: Don't move up! All the "top QB's" don't turn out to be top QB's!. Remember EJ, RJ etc.?? Maybe it's the "J" initial curse? If this team was a QB away from being a SB contender then I would say trade up, but they are not nearly that close, so draft a QB that falls to them and use the other picks to hopefully fill the voids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I would not trade up , too many teams need a QB this year. I would gamble with the best QB there at 21. Lets see what FA they bring in or trade for Alex Smith if the price is right. I would think other teams will bid up his draft price thou. Just too many positions to address this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The BLUES Brothers Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I don't see us selling the farm to move up to the top 2 At best like you said move up into the top 10. It will come down to what FA QB we chase and land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Beef on Weck said: l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors. How many people's heads would explode if we traded up to 10 and took Smith, then selected Rudolph at 21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I did a mock and it took me both firsts and one of our seconds to trade up to number 5. I took Lamar Jackson QB, Louisville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Trade every draft pick for the next 3 drafts. The only thing that matters is a QB!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BmarvB Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 There will be teams looking to make a deal for an extra pick or two in the early rounds, and maybe a team or two looking to move down in the first round. Just sit tight and wait for the right offer to come along before moving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 39 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Trade every draft pick for the next 3 drafts. The only thing that matters is a QB!! Sounds like sarcasm. Right? Anyway, for all those who think giving up a boatload of picks to grab an unproven college kid for immediate insertion into the role of Bills Savior, this week's championship games feature Keenum, Bortles, Foles and one time 6th round pick Tom Brady. Might there be a lesson here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Beef on Weck said: l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors. I would too. Other than a QB, he’s the guy I’d want most for this team. Can’t see us trading up for him and I can’t see him falling to 21. Prefect fit for us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, yungmack said: Sounds like sarcasm. Right? Anyway, for all those who think giving up a boatload of picks to grab an unproven college kid for immediate insertion into the role of Bills Savior, this week's championship games feature Keenum, Bortles, Foles and one time 6th round pick Tom Brady. Might there be a lesson here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Roquan Smith is the only player I would trade up for. Let the QB come to us. Trade down, not up. Picks, picks, and more picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 (edited) You build around a QB. You must have a good prospect to build around to truly start any kind of era otherwise all we have is what we have had not good enough and new staffs every few seasons. Trade up and get us a QB to build around that is worth calling a franchise worthy prospect so maybe this staff c an last more then 3 seasons. Stop avoiding the most important position in football. You build around a solid talented QB not the other way around. 19 minutes ago, Pete said: Roquan Smith is the only player I would trade up for. Let the QB come to us. Trade down, not up. Picks, picks, and more picks Let the QBs come to us, sounds exactly what Whaley did all those years and he never got a good one that way because other teams don't play the waiting game unless they already have a good one on the team. Waiting around is great when you have a good starting QB, we have one of the lowest ranked throwing QBs in the NFL, they better move to the front and stop messing around with the most important position in football or this staff will be the next out the door. Fans have waited long enough for OBD to go all in on getting one. Give us a QB to be proud of not these QBs other teams laugh at because they "made him be a QB". You say picks picks picks. I would rather have quality over quantity. Bring in 30 players and only 2 make the roster and you still need a QB how did moving back to get more picks help at all? Edited January 16, 2018 by xRUSHx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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