Foreigner Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 At 2:31 PM today there was a story written by a Tim Marcin for Newsweek questioning whether this is the end of the NFL, "The end of the NFL?". In it, he lists the usual subjects plus a new one added perhaps for shock, which we will list last. 1. The Ray Rice demestic abuse case. 2. Injuries 3.Kaepernick and the National Anthem. 4. Poor TV ratings. 5. Roger Goodell & deflategate. 6. CTE in deceased players. 7. And the new one, a Sexual Harassement Lawsuit filed in October apparently against a few NFL network people. I believe the NFL will be around long after any of us are around watching and enjoying the game. For one thing, where are young men after coming from college football factories going to make pay that should last a lifetime. And all the auxiliary money going towards office people, stadium people, TV and media people, and on and on. But the big thing is the entertainment and great football we see every weekend like the Steelers, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Eagles, and the Snow game that occurred last weekend. It is great performances and maybe heartbreak, but that is NFL football and America's sport is going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW95 - JA17 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The nasty injuries turn me off. When I watch a sports game these days ( Especially NHL and NFL ) I feel like there is a good chance I will watch someone die before my eyes. The games are so fast and powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It has a good short term future but two things threaten its viability. One is the greed of the owners. If they take games off the normal networks and start charging premiums they'll lose fans and revenue. The second are parents. How many parents will decide to not allow their kids to play because of short and long term health problems? Great topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, KW95 said: The nasty injuries turn me off. When I watch a sports game these days ( Especially NHL and NFL ) I feel like there is a good chance I will watch someone die before my eyes. The games are so fast and powerful. .......probably in my 55 years of following the game, Stingley came the closest (perhaps Kevin Everett but I think his injury was freakish versus Tatum head hunting).....sad part was Stingley died at 55 totally paralyzed......Tatum never tried to make amends and died from diabetes after his leg was amputated...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The thing that will threaten the league will be when they can diagnose CTE before the player is dead. Once they can do that players will have to confront hard facts about whether it's worth the risk to their lives as opposed to now where they can ignore it because they just don't know for sure. I believe it's estimated that the technology will be available within the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 They love the money. Until the time comes that they only make $100,000 a year, it will keep going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW95 - JA17 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 some player from Seattle I believe 2 years ago returned a kickoff/punt and at midfield got rocked. I turned to my wife and said I think this player is dead. the hockey player that died Canada was my former student. Donald Sanderson. He was an average player but liked to get involved in the tough stuff. No reason for him to even play that senior league. he was a very intelligent kid. One of the most intelligent I've every taught. Once he got on the ice, he turned into some other human being. Its nice to see that fighting is not really part of the NHL anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: The second are parents. How many parents will decide to not allow their kids to play because of short and long term health problems? I think we will see a significant change, in a decade+ in how the talent in the NFL is developed. Fewer and fewer kids might play in high school. But if a college coach from a BCS school comes calling on a kid who plays track and field and basketball and is willing to give the kid a full scholarship it may be too hard for some kids and really legally adults once they are in college, to turn down. As long as money remains at the college level, the NFL should still have a football factory at the college level. The other possibility is that it could also open up doors for other countries to send their kids to American universities. Edited December 12, 2017 by Sammy Watkins' Rib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The NFL is going to die from self inflicted wounds. IMHO it's inching ever closer to the NBA on turf. I cannot imagine that people are going to continue to invest so much time and money into games that repeatedly appear to be decided by the referees. Just watch the highlights and let me know who the refs decided won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I disagree. Football is a dying sport. I'm not saying it's dead, or going to be dead anytime soon, but the trajectory of the league is downward. Youth participation is falling, and will likely continue to fall. In a sport where the average life expectancy of a player seems to be considerably less than the average life expectancy of athletes who play any other major sport, parents will continue to hold their kids back from playing and put them in other sports instead where you don't run the risk of living the majority of your life with the effects of severe brain trauma. The NFL has nothing that is going to get participation to increase. All that's going to happen is the league is going to continue to lose market share of youth participation, and eventually, maybe 50+ years from now, it will have been lapped by other spectator sports. My guess is that soccer will be the sport that capitalizes over time. There's no major risk of injury, it's global and as MLS continues to improve it's quality US interest will ascend with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 ...where else are MAJOR advertisers going to throw their money on Sundays?.....ESPN Poker?.....ESPN Spelling Bee?.....Lawrence Welk re-runs?......Cooking with Julia Child?....oh wait she's dead.....come renewal time, the "cash cow" may see less "cream" as in lower dollars due to rate adjustments, but we're still talking BILLIONS..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 NFL will always dominate. Maybe not as much as a few years ago when it peaked, but there will always be tons of kids wanting to play, and tons of fans like us who want to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, billsfan11 said: NFL will always dominate. Maybe not as much as a few years ago when it peaked, but there will always be tons of kids wanting to play, and tons of fans like us who want to watch I'm not sure that tons of kids will always want to play. At some point common sense will prevail and parents will force their kids into other sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, jrober38 said: I'm not sure that tons of kids will always want to play. At some point common sense will prevail and parents will force their kids into other sports. There may be a decline but there will still be tons. Think about it even now. If one person quit the NFL, there would literally be thousands and thousands of people who would push their own grandma down the stairs to take his spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Soccer will not replace football, until idiots are not able to get guns and kill school children. Football is a violent sport, but we live in a violent country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: There may be a decline but there will still be tons. Think about it even now. If one person quit the NFL, there would literally be thousands and thousands of people who would push their own grandma down the stairs to take his spot. I'm not saying it's going to die anytime soon, but think about how much advancement there's been in NFL head injuries over the past 10 years and how it's affected the game, and imagine what things are going to look like in 50 years. My guess is we're going to have a generation of players from the 90s and 2000s dying early due to CTE. It's going to become a full fledged epidemic among NFL players, and as the scientific research behind the affects of playing football gets more worrying, participation will continue to decline and eventually you'll have such a poor product on the field viewers will turn their attention elsewhere. As I said, the NFL has nothing that's going to make more people play the game, which is pretty much the opposite of every other pro league in North America. Basketball is growing, baseball is growing (they also don't compete against anything in the summer months), hockey is growing, soccer is growing. The NFL on the other hand is losing market share, and I don't see anything that's going to turn that around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 34 minutes ago, MDH said: The thing that will threaten the league will be when they can diagnose CTE before the player is dead. Once they can do that players will have to confront hard facts about whether it's worth the risk to their lives as opposed to now where they can ignore it because they just don't know for sure. I believe it's estimated that the technology will be available within the next decade. I agree that CTE casts a long dark shadow over the game of football. Parents had reason to think that prior to CTE football was a wholesome activity for their kids. There is strong reason to question this belief now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I'm not saying it's going to die anytime soon, but think about how much advancement there's been in NFL head injuries over the past 10 years and how it's affected the game, and imagine what things are going to look like in 50 years. My guess is we're going to have a generation of players from the 90s and 2000s dying early due to CTE. It's going to become a full fledged epidemic among NFL players, and as the scientific research behind the affects of playing football gets more worrying, participation will continue to decline and eventually you'll have such a poor product on the field viewers will turn their attention elsewhere. As I said, the NFL has nothing that's going to make more people play the game, which is pretty much the opposite of every other pro league in North America. Basketball is growing, baseball is growing (they also don't compete against anything in the summer months), hockey is growing, soccer is growing. The NFL on the other hand is losing market share, and I don't see anything that's going to turn that around. I hear your points but I respectfully disagree. Everyone who plays football now knows the danger of playing football. Its not a secret anymore. Like I said, do I think there will be a decline in kids playing? Probably, ya. Because to your point, I'm sure more research will be done to illustrate the dangers. But I don't think it's going to come close to jeopardizing the sport. As long as we continue to watch, and as long as million dollar contracts are given out to these players, I think the NFL will always have a massive waiting list of people who would do anything to make it pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 There will probably be technological advances bringing safer helmets, down the line, but irregardless people will go against the risk because it is about the money, and when people say it is not about the money, it is always about the money. It is like the business of the US is business. It is about corporations and companies of all size doing what they can to make more profits. It is about robbing banks, cheating people, drug addicts hitting people over the head to steal a wallet with $10 for a fix, it is about someone with a 35 inch TV wanting a 65 inch set. We could go on and on about people wanting better homes, clothes, cars. It is always about the money and there will be very few draft choices give up the money for the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: I agree that CTE casts a long dark shadow over the game of football. Parents had reason to think that prior to CTE football was a wholesome activity for their kids. There is strong reason to question this belief now. ...in spite of all of the negatives, the "cash cow" will carry on even if it means "less milk"......BUT we're still talking BILLIONS in TV revenues...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The money and greed was why I listed that before injury risk as a factor affecting the league. Mark Cuban said greed would ruin the NFL and he may have a point. You're already seeing on line sites wanting to stream games. If the average fan who wants to turn on CBS or NBC is told they have to pay to watch, it will be interesting to see how many say forget it. Plus the league is increasingly worried about in stadium attendance. Not to mention the falloff in quality of play with Thursday night games and such. Factors such as these will begin to affect advertising revenues if the league doesn't recognize the potential harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Beard Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 College football is still huge. The football powerhouses that get into the championship games are going strong. A lot of those college players want to go professional. Even if college football starts to decline, there will still be plenty of players who will want to go to the NFL. Maybe the caliber of the players will start to decline, but there will still be plenty of people who want to play. I don't think the game will die because of a lack of people who want to play. The popularity of the NFL may decline because of the high cost associated with going to games as well as the cost to TV networks to buy the rights to the games. The other stuff is a distraction, but it won't kill the game. Tweaking the rules and bad refs don't help, but they aren't going to kill it anytime soon. The protests are hardly in the news anymore. I often make a parallel to NASCAR. NASCAR peaked about 20 years ago. Now it's on less popular cable TV channels, and the stands rarely look crowded. The cost of fielding a car and the constant search for sponsorships are factors that are causing many teams to give up. The constant tweaking of the rules is also killing NASCAR. I can't enjoy it anymore. Stage racing, the chase for the championship, mystery cautions, and rules that make all the cars practically identical make it no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The league has peaked with Brady, once he's gone it's downhill IMO, and not just because he retires. Brady will be kind of a historical landmark for when the league was at its best. NFL fans are a dying breed, it will fade away. 100 years from now there will be no NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, T-Bomb said: The league has peaked with Brady, once he's gone it's downhill IMO, and not just because he retires. Brady will be kind of a historical landmark for when the league was at its best. NFL fans are a dying breed, it will fade away. 100 years from now there will be no NFL. ....SCARIER part is you'll STILL be around.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ....SCARIER part is you'll STILL be around.............. THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, T-Bomb said: THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE! ....you're nominated to carry the torch.......I'll be in Hell's Kitchen and they don't have LCD's that can withstand the heat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Even if the ratings dipped slightly, they are so far beyond any other sport it's silly to say the NFL will die anytime soon unless the owners do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Is this a joke? "Injuries"? Yeah, this is a new phenomenon that will kill the league. "Poor" TV ratings for a product that is far and away the most reliable ratings king ever? "Sexual harassment" involving a bunch of former players in jobs not related to the NFL? Too funny. People who can't stop clutching their pearls over football should get out and let the rest of us enjoy the game in peace. Enough already with these types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marv's Neighbor Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 After seeing the stands at Soldier Field for the Packers game, I think the NFL may already be dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinceThe70s Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Is this a joke? "Injuries"? Yeah, this is a new phenomenon that will kill the league. "Poor" TV ratings for a product that is far and away the most reliable ratings king ever? "Sexual harassment" involving a bunch of former players in jobs not related to the NFL? Too funny. People who can't stop clutching their pearls over football should get out and let the rest of us enjoy the game in peace. Enough already with these types I think the injury/CTE concerns are a legit threat to the NFL in a few ways. Parents unwilling to let their kids play and the potential for lawsuits against the league to name two. Although I do think the NFL has been oversaturating their product with the Thursday night and other extra games, I agree, the poor tv ratings argument is a joke. I'll change my mind if and when the world wide Super Bowl ratings start to suffer and advertisers stop going over the top with SB commercials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 18 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said: I think the injury/CTE concerns are a legit threat to the NFL in a few ways. Parents unwilling to let their kids play and the potential for lawsuits against the league to name two. Although I do think the NFL has been oversaturating their product with the Thursday night and other extra games, I agree, the poor tv ratings argument is a joke. I'll change my mind if and when the world wide Super Bowl ratings start to suffer and advertisers stop going over the top with SB commercials. The league settled a lawsuit. No legitimate suits going forward will succeed given what the players universally know about CTE. Thursday night is a ratings winner---even more so than MNF. Why would the NFL get rid of that? Edited December 13, 2017 by Mr. WEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: The league sealed a lawsuit. No legitimate suits going forward will succeed given what the players universally know about CTE. Thursday night is a ratings winner---even more so than MNF. Why would the NFL get rid of that? Because the players and coaches hate it and the quality of play is generally inferior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Because the players and coaches hate it and the quality of play is generally inferior None of that matters. These guys have to be the best at what they do for 16 or so days a year. And for playing a kid's game, they are paid beyond our comprehension. Also, there will never be a shortage of college players clamoring to get to the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinceThe70s Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: The league sealed a lawsuit. No legitimate suits going forward will succeed given what the players universally know about CTE. Thursday night is a ratings winner---even more so than MNF. Why would the NFL get rid of that? I'm no law expert but I'm skeptical that the NFL has insulated themselves from future lawsuits. From my laymans perspective we are an overly litigious society and I never underestimate the power of a jury. As for ratings, I didn't say the NFL would get rid of Thursday night. It's just my personal observation that between the week 1 Thursday opener and MNF double header, Sunday, Monday and Thursday night games, and late season Saturday night games the league may be over-saturating the product. But I also agreed with you that the poor ratings argument is a joke. I still watch most of those games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, SinceThe70s said: I'm no law expert but I'm skeptical that the NFL has insulated themselves from future lawsuits. From my laymans perspective we are an overly litigious society and I never underestimate the power of a jury. As for ratings, I didn't say the NFL would get rid of Thursday night. It's just my personal observation that between the week 1 Thursday opener and MNF double header, Sunday, Monday and Thursday night games, and late season Saturday night games the league may be over-saturating the product. But I also agreed with you that the poor ratings argument is a joke. I still watch most of those games. What argument could a current player make? "I didn't know the risk"? Nope. Also, there is no way to pi CTE on the NFl. It cn easily, based on almost all current expert opinion, be concluded that most players enter the NFL with the greatest risk of accruing the hundreds or thousands of hits which cause the disease well behind them. No one can argue credibly that pro football is the sole cause of CTE. As for TNF, those games have been played for some years now. No reason to say that suddenly the league is saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: None of that matters. These guys have to be the best at what they do for 16 or so days a year. And for playing a kid's game, they are paid beyond our comprehension. Also, there will never be a shortage of college players clamoring to get to the NFL. Wait till the next CBA negotiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: Wait till the next CBA negotiation For....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: For....? I think the player's union will come out strong against Thursday night games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinceThe70s Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Mr. WEO said: What argument could a current player make? "I didn't know the risk"? Nope. Also, there is no way to pi CTE on the NFl. It cn easily, based on almost all current expert opinion, be concluded that most players enter the NFL with the greatest risk of accruing the hundreds or thousands of hits which cause the disease well behind them. No one can argue credibly that pro football is the sole cause of CTE. As for TNF, those games have been played for some years now. No reason to say that suddenly the league is saturated. What argument? Beats me, I'm surprised by what the lawyers come up with for lawsuits on a regular basis. Will they win? Beats me, perhaps not. Will all of this affect parents decisions on which sport their kids play? Seems plausible. Did I say the league is "suddenly" saturated? For me, it has happened over time and honestly color rush adds to my fatigue...but as I said it hasn't affected my viewing habits yet and um...I did agree with you about the ratings, right? Did you read that part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 11 hours ago, SinceThe70s said: What argument? Beats me, I'm surprised by what the lawyers come up with for lawsuits on a regular basis. Will they win? Beats me, perhaps not. Will all of this affect parents decisions on which sport their kids play? Seems plausible. Did I say the league is "suddenly" saturated? For me, it has happened over time and honestly color rush adds to my fatigue...but as I said it hasn't affected my viewing habits yet and um...I did agree with you about the ratings, right? Did you read that part? I did read that yes. And I agree with the color rush--ridiculous clown suits. I guess some players can file a frivolous lawsuit. But what would be the point of a hopeless suit? Prospective jurors (i.e. NFL fans) are tired of seeing these guys headhunt and cheap shot each other and then turn around and blame their employer for their future health problems. 11 hours ago, oldmanfan said: I think the player's union will come out strong against Thursday night games. Then they will be coming out strong for a pay cut. The NFL just got 900 million for 2 seasons ($45 million PER GAME) last year for TNF. You really think that the NFLPA or even the players individually will take that pay cut for a game they have to play what, once a year?? No way at all the happens. Edited December 13, 2017 by Mr. WEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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