Watkins and production.

[T-Bomb]

The Bills used a first, and another first, for potential. But for just a 2nd, I think I'd rather keep the player and give TT every opportunity to prove himself than give Watkins away.

But I ain't no GM

 

Sometimes when you're cleaning up someone else's mess, the **** has to go.

[LeGOATski]

i don't know much about gains...

Do you even lift, bro?

 

 

 

It's all about the QB...and then role players...at least on offense. Once you have that franchise guy in place, you can pick and choose where you spend your money to benefit the team most.

 

Spending it on a WR with no QB is not a good plan.

 

I think they saw a good opportunity to get value from a Watkins deal and took it. There were no guarantees, otherwise.

[PolishDave]

A third round comp pick is after every team has selected in the third round. Its essentially a 4th round draft pick.

That second round draft pick has the potential to be a top fifteen in the second round.

The rams have our receiving corps from last year, donald held out training camp, their star de tore an acl and isnout, and they have a new coachimg staff.

 

Yep. It is also possible that the Rams pick will be a lot lower than you think. In the end it really doesn't matter. Still not enough for what the Bills gave up. I think Watkins stock will be way higher part way into the season than it is now. And even if it is not, having him for this entire year - balling out hard core for the Bills - would have been worth it. And that is regardless of what they ended up doing with him after the season.

[Malazan]

He would have been on pace for over ~1000 yards when he got hurt for the season. Plantar Fasciitis

[Alphadawg7]

If stayed in buffalo and Stayed healthy (big if)

 

75 catches 1222 yards 8-10 TDs

 

That's based off looking at what was his best 9 game stretch at the end of 2015

 

That is not as "big" of an "if" as people make it out to be. Again, I have to point out that most people who continue to harp on that don't really understand his injury. He had 2 real things...

 

1. Rib injury...but he got that from a huge shot to the ribs, that doesn't make a guy injury prone, that is just football. He came back and dominated the NFL as one of most dominant WR's in football the rest of that season.

 

2. The foot injury...its a difficult injury to recover from, but is not a lingering or reoccurring injury. In fact, you are less likely to hurt it again once fully recovered than you were before you had it as its almost always stronger after. We have had a lot of questionable medical decisions for a while here in Buffalo, and Sammy clearly came back to early last year while there was still discomfort and tried to play through it only further aggravating it. There is no "fix" other than time really, so all he could do was sit and wait. Had he maybe sat out and focused on debuting maybe early in the season instead, he may have avoided it all together and had a healthy season last year.

 

So, people can point out the missed time and ignore all the context of the injury all they want, but the reality is neither of his 2 injuries that caused him to miss time were ticky-tack, reoccurring, or long term.

 

Watkins has no prior injury issues coming into the NFL, nor is he getting hurt the way Goodwin did. He had bad luck on a foot injury and took a big shot in the ribs. That doesn't just make you "injury prone". No one would complain if we got Dez or Julio here, and those guys have had frequent issues with injuries. Same with Calvin, Alshon, D. Thomas, OBJ, etc. Its a violent position that takes some of the biggest hits in the game. It happens.

 

PS: I am not saying he can't or wont get hurt again, I just think its way too early in his career to just decide he can't make it through a season given the circumstances of his actual injuries.

Edited August 15, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Bill_with_it]

 

Yep. It is also possible that the Rams pick will be a lot lower than you think. In the end it really doesn't matter. Still not enough for what the Bills gave up. I think Watkins stock will be way higher part way into the season than it is now. And even if it is not, having him for this entire year - balling out hard core for the Bills - would have been worth it. And that is regardless of what they ended up doing with him after the season.

You cant hang in to an asset just because the amount of capital you spent to get the asset. Thats how you lose big.

Its likely regardless of what Sammy did or didnt do the GM had no intentions of paying him to what sammy tweeted as changing the salary market for wr.

So instead of letting the season play out, or using the tag next year, they thought it better to grab someone in a trade along with a draft pick. Which will assist in building the future of this ball club, will not destroy our cap, and acquire the players this fo want on the team.

[teef]

The Bills used a first, and another first, for potential. But for just a 2nd, I think I'd rather keep the player and give TT every opportunity to prove himself than give Watkins away.

But I ain't no GM

i'm not sure that we can rate getting a 2nd as bad because whaley way overpaid for watkins. it always is on the mind, but i think to an extent we have to separate the two.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

16 games?

 

I'd say 65-70 catches, 900-1000 yards, and 7-8 TDs

[MAJBobby]

 

That is not as "big" of an "if" as people make it out to be. Again, I have to point out that most people who continue to harp on that don't really understand his injury. He had 2 real things...

 

1. Rib injury...but he got that from a huge shot to the ribs, that doesn't make a guy injury prone, that is just football. He came back and dominated the NFL as one of most dominant WR's in football the rest of that season.

 

2. The foot injury...its a difficult injury to recover from, but is not a lingering or reoccurring injury. In fact, you are less likely to hurt it again once fully recovered than you were before you had it as its almost always stronger after. We have had a lot of questionable medical decisions for a while here in Buffalo, and Sammy clearly came back to early last year while there was still discomfort and tried to play through it only further aggravating it. There is no "fix" other than time really, so all he could do was sit and wait. Had he maybe sat out and focused on debuting maybe early in the season instead, he may have avoided it all together and had a healthy season last year.

 

So, people can point out the missed time and ignore all the context of the injury all they want, but the reality is neither of his 2 injuries that caused him to miss time were ticky-tack, reoccurring, or long term.

 

Watkins has no prior injury issues coming into the NFL, nor is he getting hurt the way Goodwin did. He had bad luck on a foot injury and took a big shot in the ribs. That doesn't just make you "injury prone". No one would complain if we got Dez or Julio here, and those guys have had frequent issues with injuries. Same with Calvin, Alshon, D. Thomas, OBJ, etc. Its a violent position that takes some of the biggest hits in the game. It happens.

 

PS: I am not saying he can't or wont get hurt again, I just think its way too early in his career to just decide he can't make it through a season given the circumstances of his actual injuries.

It is a big if when there are rumblings out of a medical staff that are concerned with that foot

[teef]

 

I have no doubt that if he stayed healthy he would have definitely without question put up at least 85+ catches, at least 1300+ yards, and at least 8+ TD's. I actually believe he could have challenged all receiving franchise records as well, he is that good, and he and Taylor connect that well.

 

And that is not based on homerism, that is based on his flat out production with TT when he was healthy. If anyone takes his last 9 games of 2015 when he was healthy finally after the bye week, you can project them out over 16 games and realize not only am I not crazy, but its likely probable. The only question mark was just about staying on the field, not what he can produce.

 

If Goff can even be average, he could possibly still approach those numbers this year. Goff has had some promising looking moments this offseason, but he also had an atrocious practice yesterday and still has those types of days. He threw 3 picks that should have been 5 picks yesterday in practice. So, is Goff gonna be able to be average, or is he going to be just awful is the real question to what Sammy can do this year. The jury is also still out on whether or not the OL rebuild for the Rams has had any progress yet.

this is a great post, but to say "at least" those number is very wishful thinking. he hasn't come close, so i just don't know what would have changed (other than health) to cause his numbers to skyrocket.

[LeGOATski]

 

Yep. It is also possible that the Rams pick will be a lot lower than you think. In the end it really doesn't matter. Still not enough for what the Bills gave up. I think Watkins stock will be way higher part way into the season than it is now. And even if it is not, having him for this entire year - balling out hard core for the Bills - would have been worth it. And that is regardless of what they ended up doing with him after the season.

I think they took the guarantee. Between Watkins injury history and the apparent negative team dynamic (based on McD/Boldin WR comments), Watkins was a risk to their overall goal. This regime seems to look at WRs as role players, not franchise guys. They wanted to set that precedent right away. They're not going to franchise or pay huge money to a WR.

 

I agree that they could've traded him later, but then it would be harder to get a player in return that would be able to contribute right away. Maybe they would just get draft picks.

[jethro_tull]

A big part of the decision probably involves the type of receiver Watkins is and whether that is the best fit for Dennison's offense. Watkin's strength is as a dynamic, home run deep route speed receiver and not necessarily a short route possession receiver.

Dennison's offense is definitely a passing / possession offense. Watkin's ~53.8% catch percentage might not have been a good fit for a passing possession offense.

[PolishDave]

You cant hang in to an asset just because the amount of capital you spent to get the asset. Thats how you lose big.

Its likely regardless of what Sammy did or didnt do the GM had no intentions of paying him to what sammy tweeted as changing the salary market for wr.

So instead of letting the season play out, or using the tag next year, they thought it better to grab someone in a trade along with a draft pick. Which will assist in building the future of this ball club, will not destroy our cap, and acquire the players this fo want on the team.

 

You are basing decisions off of 2018 while throwing away the 2017 season. I don't want to throw 2017 away because I paid thousands of $$ for tickets to watch the team try to win a championship - even if they fall short. When you downgrade talent - it is hard to make the case that you are honestly trying to win. Its bull ****. And everyone knows it.

 

One of the most exciting things leading up to the start of this season for me as a fan (and many others I have talked with) was going to be seeing this offense with a fully healthy Watkins. Beaner just pulled the rug out on that.

[Kirby Jackson]

this is a great post, but to say "at least" those number is very wishful thinking. he hasn't come close, so i just don't know what would have changed (other than health) to cause his numbers to skyrocket.

Targets, 7.67 targets a game is 3 less than the top guys get. He'd have needed about another 25-30 targets on the year to get there.

[Bill_with_it]

 

You are basing decisions off of 2018 while throwing away the 2017 season. I don't want to throw 2017 away because I paid thousands of $$ for tickets to watch the team try to win a championship - even if they fall short. When you downgrade talent - it is hard to make the case that you are honestly trying to win. Its bull ****. And everyone knows it.

 

One of the most exciting things leading up to the start of this season for me as a fan (and many others I have talked with) was going to be seeing this offense with a fully healthy Watkins. Beaner just pulled the rug out on that.

A) You don't know if Sammy was fully healthy.

B) When Sammy was out versus when Sammy was in last year played no significant change in the win las column marginal at best either way.

C) Saying you are mad because you wont get to see the occasional exciting Watkins play is one thing but saying that Watkins will be the reason we wint be able to win a championship is total garbage.

D) If the reason you spen money is to watch Sammy play and you arent excited about the rest of the team then it might be time for you to become a Rams fan.

[oldmanfan]

Assuming no injury about 80 catches for around 1100 yards. I think Dennison and TT would have got the ball to him a lot more often.

[Alphadawg7]

this is a great post, but to say "at least" those number is very wishful thinking. he hasn't come close, so i just don't know what would have changed (other than health) to cause his numbers to skyrocket.

 

He has come close. In the final 9 games of 2015, his 2nd year, and Tyrods first as a starter with a bad coaching staff, Sammy put up big numbers. Had he not missed time early in the season with the Rib injury, those 9 games project out to be:

 

Actual stats over those 9 games: 900 yards, 49 Rec, 8 TDs.

 

Projected over a full 16 games season had he not been hurt to start the year: 1600 yards, 87 Rec, 14 TD's.

 

And again, only his 2nd year, and TT as a first year starter at QB with Rex and Co running the show.

 

So this notion he hasn't come close is a bit misguided given the whole disclaimer was on the assumption he has a relatively healthy season. If he did, I think he challenges those totals again, and I even scaled back on yards and TD's. I mean he scored 8 TD's in just 9 games last time he was healthy for a stretch with 900 yards receiving. Too many people here are linking his year end totals to his ability to produce when in reality it was 100% tied to the rib injury and the foot injury, not his ability to produce here with Taylor. In the one game last year when Sammy was somewhat healthy at end of season, Tyrods last start, he put up over 150 yards and a TD as well.

 

All evidence suggest my projection was conservative to say the least assuming he remained healthy for 14+ games this year.

[PABillsfan23]

 

You could have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick from losing Watkins. He will very likely sign a big money deal with someone. All of a sudden that 2nd round pick doesn't seem like as much seeing that you also gave up a 6th. So a 6th and probably a 3rd for a chance to pick a name out of a hat in the second round next year. The more you go over it, the more insane the trade was. Only thing that justifies it is if Watkins gets hurt or otherwise underperforms drastically. And I wouldn't bet on the drastic underperformance in a contract year.

Rams 2nd round pick will most likely be in the top 8 of the round.. Id much rather have that than a 3rd comp pick. Let the Rams deal with his contract demands.

[eball]

No matter how well Sammy does in LA, I'll sleep comfortably knowing it wouldn't likely have impacted the Bills' W-L record and they're stocked for the 2018 draft.

 

I'm rooting for him to stay healthy and reach his potential.

[KDIGGZ]

more than Matthews

 

/end thread

[MarlinTheMagician]

He is playing with Goff. Numbers will be pedestrian if healthy, and worse if not. And what I am really interested in is NEXT YEAR's numbers, after he has gotten paid. Glad we don't own that issue.