THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Brandon Beane Era Begins

[Fadingpain]

First, I'd be shocked and stunned if the Bills were not already ready to move beyond Tyrod and if they don't take a QB in next year's draft, way up at the top of the draft. That seems to clearly be their plan.

 

Second, I doubt the acquired draft picks from the deals yesterday will be used as draft picks as you suggest; rather, they will be used as currency to help broker a deal that gets us high enough in next year's draft to get the QB we want, within reason.

 

Third: I agree the right way to go is to build through the draft; that is true for pretty much all N. American team sports.

 

Fourth: I agree current management is following a BB model and now doing things the New England way. That is a very good thing.

 

Fifth: The bold moves yesterday with some planning and forethought remind just how bad management has been at this organization for a very long time. Doug Whaley's stint here was laughably bad. Well, it would be laughable if it didn't make me cry.

[CommonCents]

First, I'd be shocked and stunned if the Bills were not already ready to move beyond Tyrod and if they don't take a QB in next year's draft, way up at the top of the draft. That seems to clearly be their plan.

 

Second, I doubt the acquired draft picks from the deals yesterday will be used as draft picks as you suggest; rather, they will be used as currency to help broker a deal that gets us high enough in next year's draft to get the QB we want, within reason.

 

Third: I agree the right way to go is to build through the draft; that is true for pretty much all N. American team sports.

 

Fourth: I agree current management is following a BB model and now doing things the New England way. That is a very good thing.

 

Fifth: The bold moves yesterday with some planning and forethought remind just how bad management has been at this organization for a very long time. Doug Whaley's stint here was laughably bad. Well, it would be laughable if it didn't make me cry.

So they are about to allow the QB that they will soon replace to cost them all of their draft capital? In what world does that makes sense, if they have their mind made up on him then move him out and get a top 5 pick while playing Yates. That will eliminate the need to trade away all the picks!

[Fadingpain]

So they are about to allow the QB that they will soon replace to cost them all of their draft capital? In what world does that makes sense, if they have their mind made up on him then move him out and get a top 5 pick while playing Yates. That will eliminate the need to trade away all the picks!

It's not an all or nothing proposition; some combination of picks will be used to improve the draft position IMO.

 

I would be totally on board with moving Tyrod, but I don't think that is their plan; they are not going for a full tank, more of a moderated tank. LOL.

[CommonCents]

It's not an all or nothing proposition; some combination of picks will be used to improve the draft position IMO.

 

I would be totally on board with moving Tyrod, but I don't think that is their plan; they are not going for a full tank, more of a moderated tank. LOL.

A moderate tank just prolongs the misery at this point.

[Shaw66]

It's a bunch of excuses and apologies. There was NO PLAN. THERE IS NO PLAN. Did he articulate a PLAN yesterday? NO! He said he wasn't planning to trade them! but people approached! He's an opportunist, without a plan.

He's not going to lay out his plan in public. What he thinks about players and the future is confidential for plenty of good reasons. All you can do is divine the plan from what you see him do.

 

They clearly have a good idea about the kind of cornerbacks they want, because they got rid of two expensive cover guys and went after a zone guy. They clearly have an idea of what kind of receivers they want, because with Bolding and Matthews they have two excellent possession receivers with size and who fight for the ball.

 

They also have shown and said that the draft is at the core of their player acquisition strategy. We probably haven't seen the end of top players getting traded for lesser players plus a high pick. Hughes, Dareus and McCoy all are candidates. Personally, I'd hate to see Dareus or McCoy go, but after yesterday, anything is possible.

First, I'd be shocked and stunned if the Bills were not already ready to move beyond Tyrod and if they don't take a QB in next year's draft, way up at the top of the draft. That seems to clearly be their plan.

 

Second, I doubt the acquired draft picks from the deals yesterday will be used as draft picks as you suggest; rather, they will be used as currency to help broker a deal that gets us high enough in next year's draft to get the QB we want, within reason.

 

Third: I agree the right way to go is to build through the draft; that is true for pretty much all N. American team sports.

 

Fourth: I agree current management is following a BB model and now doing things the New England way. That is a very good thing.

 

Fifth: The bold moves yesterday with some planning and forethought remind just how bad management has been at this organization for a very long time. Doug Whaley's stint here was laughably bad. Well, it would be laughable if it didn't make me cry.

I agree with what you're saying about Taylor, and I think I said the same thing. If I had to handicap it, I'd put a 10% probability on Taylor being the long-term starter. But I also think these guys are smart; they're going to see what Taylor does this season and make their decision about the future next February.

So they are about to allow the QB that they will soon replace to cost them all of their draft capital? In what world does that makes sense, if they have their mind made up on him then move him out and get a top 5 pick while playing Yates. That will eliminate the need to trade away all the picks!

There's plenty of logic in what you say; it happens in the NBA all the time.

 

But it doesn't happen in the NFL, and Beane said yesterday it isn't in his DNA. He hates losing, so he's not going to set himself to lose. He and McDermott think the Bills can be just as good with the new guys as with Watkins and Darby.

 

Plus, except for the losses and the high pick, there's no upside in unloading Taylor now. Can't get anything for him - he's on a short contract, it's already very late in the season to install a new QB in the starting role, and he doesn't have much of a track record. Unloading him would be purely a tank job; Beane won't do that and the fans won't stand for it.

 

As I said elsewhere, I'd think it's more likely that one or more of Dareus, McCoy or Hughes gets moved.

[Maury Ballstein]

We got back solid starters ?

 

Is EJ Gaines gonna be more solid than Drayton Florence ?

 

I can see him getting torched already.

 

Tankification

[Uncle Joe]

So here I sit on the 45th parallel in Oregon and the eclipse arrived 10 days early!

A few days ago I was thinking the Boldin signing would be good for Sammy. This I why I don't make predictions and let the season play out..

 

I like all the draft picks we are stock piling and the subsequent cap contaiment, BUT:

 

1) I do not want to see a package of picks for a can't miss franchise QB that misses. Instead some level headed QB pick management.

2) I would like to see the numerous picks used to draft talent and depth. The Bills super bowl teams had depth. Guys would go down and the next man up would produce. But that was before free agency>
But this also assumes that our new front office and scouting department has the ability to do this. No more McCargos, Maybins, Sheppards, Losmans, Spillers et al.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Good to see again Shaw66, your posts on the old BBMB were always entertaining and insightful.

 

My only comment is everything you wrote about the Pegula's is based on a lot of assumptions, reasonable assumptions and I certainly hope everything you wrote is accurate. I debated several here yesterday that though if the Bills go 5-11 or worse over the next two years the Pegula's would fire coaches and front office, i think that is rubbish. This is a rebuild and I think the Pegula' are in it for the long haul, no quick magic fixes. Unless the Bills are an utter embarrassment on the field as they were with the Rex era, McDermott/Beane are going anywhere for a long time.

[Fadingpain]

He's not going to lay out his plan in public. What he thinks about players and the future is confidential for plenty of good reasons. All you can do is divine the plan from what you see him do.

 

They clearly have a good idea about the kind of cornerbacks they want, because they got rid of two expensive cover guys and went after a zone guy. They clearly have an idea of what kind of receivers they want, because with Bolding and Matthews they have two excellent possession receivers with size and who fight for the ball.

 

They also have shown and said that the draft is at the core of their player acquisition strategy. We probably haven't seen the end of top players getting traded for lesser players plus a high pick. Hughes, Dareus and McCoy all are candidates. Personally, I'd hate to see Dareus or McCoy go, but after yesterday, anything is possible.

 

I agree with what you're saying about Taylor, and I think I said the same thing. If I had to handicap it, I'd put a 10% probability on Taylor being the long-term starter. But I also think these guys are smart; they're going to see what Taylor does this season and make their decision about the future next February.

 

There's plenty of logic in what you say; it happens in the NBA all the time.

 

But it doesn't happen in the NFL, and Beane said yesterday it isn't in his DNA. He hates losing, so he's not going to set himself to lose. He and McDermott think the Bills can be just as good with the new guys as with Watkins and Darby.

 

Plus, except for the losses and the high pick, there's no upside in unloading Taylor now. Can't get anything for him - he's on a short contract, it's already very late in the season to install a new QB in the starting role, and he doesn't have much of a track record. Unloading him would be purely a tank job; Beane won't do that and the fans won't stand for it.

 

As I said elsewhere, I'd think it's more likely that one or more of Dareus, McCoy or Hughes gets moved.

Agreed on Tyrod. I'm sure they will maintain some flexibility (why not?) and if Tyrod somehow blossoms into that which he is not this year, they may change their course of action mid-plan.

 

Where we sit right now in terms of organizational leadership smells as good as it has in a very long time. At least to my nose!

So here I sit on the 45th parallel in Oregon and the eclipse arrived 10 days early!

 

A few days ago I was thinking the Boldin signing would be good for Sammy. This I why I don't make predictions and let the season play out..

 

I like all the draft picks we are stock piling and the subsequent cap contaiment, BUT:

 

1) I do not want to see a package of picks for a can't miss franchise QB that misses. Instead some level headed QB pick management.

2) I would like to see the numerous picks used to draft talent and depth. The Bills super bowl teams had depth. Guys would go down and the next man up would produce. But that was before free agency>

But this also assumes that our new front office and scouting department has the ability to do this. No more McCargos, Maybins, Sheppards, Losmans, Spillers et al.

Love the solar eclipse reference; you don't get that every day at this forum.

 

I realize a top rated QB prospect can be very hit or miss in the NFL...but in contrast, I would support the move.

 

It's the most direct way to get a real QB. If we hit, we are good for another decade of playoffs. If we miss, we are right where we were anyway.

 

I suppose the alternative is to just randomly take guys in the 4th round and hope one turns into the next Drew Brees, but that plan may take a while.

 

Like several more N. American total solar eclipses worth of time.

[HumbleAndHungry]

Well thought out post . Can't say I disagree

[Beast]

We got back solid starters ?

Is EJ Gaines gonna be more solid than Drayton Florence ?

I can see him getting torched already.

Tankification

And how would that be any different from Darby? You did watch him play last year, correct?

 

Also, why are some having a difficult time taking what Beane said at face value? SIGNABILITY. Reading between the lines, the Bills either deemed it fiscally irresponsible to sign a player for huge money that has an injury history OR Sammy expressed desire to move on and the regime obliged him as they are selling themselves to the players and what they are building.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[Jasovon]

Either Tyrod takes us to the playoffs or we draft a QB high next year, even if we go to the playoffs I think we're done with Tyrod and want to follow in the footsteps of the Titans, Bucs, Eagles etc. and just get our guy and build from there.

[Figster]

I think these moves show us that Russ Brandon has little to no influence on the team now. There is no way he let's Sammy go with the tickets he could bring in

I think the opposite, rebuilding means job security for everyone. Many of the season ticket holders are locked in by now expecting to see our 3 core superstars in Sammy, Shady, and T Mobile because that why you go, to watch playmakers make plays. Bill Polian will tell you the sprinkling of star players is a necessity for a championship caliber football team. Buffalo gave up allot to get Sammy Watkins and recieved a fraction of what he cost in return. Russ Brandon is perfectly willing to gut a football team just like he decimated a veteran Bills Oline as acting GM back in the day without a second thought and brought in a popular over the hill player to appease the fan base. Sound familiar? it should.

 

How can the OC of your football team call for more anticipation on throws from his QB Then send the last WR on the roster he has any chemistry with packing. From an offensive perspective dealing Sammy hurt the team and it did not seem like a move/disruption a new GM or HC wants to make in my humble opinion.

 

The Bills are getting put into rebuild mode like the Sabres and the push is coming from R Brandon IMO.

 

Thanks for the great read OP and I understand the philosophy behind building through the draft.

[DirtDart]

Shaw great post and I'd say your spot on.

 

What excites me the most is for the first time in a long team it appears that the Bills have a plan. We are going to have several options at addressing the QB position next year.

 

If TT pans out were loaded with picks to build a winner and to your point its going to be with rookie cap friendly contracts.

 

If we have to go in another direction we can make a serious run at either Kirk Cousins or perhaps Jimmy Garopplo. and again the Bills are loaded with Picks to build a team around them.

 

Or this Bills can package their stock pile of picks and try to land Darnold, Rudolph, or Rosen.

 

Dare we say the Bills just won the offseason by setting this team up for the long haul???

I am genuinely excited about the hires, and direction of both Franchises. I think the fact they both have a plan, and seem to be building accordingly bodes well for the future.

 

Great post Shaw.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

I agree. Whaley was solid at aquiring talent and wanted to collect as much of it as possible to compensate for not have a qb. Beane wants the qb and is doing everything he can to set him self up to get one. Weather it is thru the draft or having cap space to buy one in the unlikely event one becomes available

[Uncle Joe]

Love the solar eclipse reference; you don't get that every day at this forum.

 

Thanks.

 

I realize a top rated QB prospect can be very hit or miss in the NFL...but in contrast, I would support the move.

 

It's the most direct way to get a real QB. If we hit, we are good for another decade of playoffs. If we miss, we are right where we were anyway.

 

I suppose the alternative is to just randomly take guys in the 4th round and hope one turns into the next Drew Brees, but that plan may take a while.

 

I wouldn't limit the QB draft to the 4th round. Find your guy(s) (not named EJ) and pick em when the opportunity is right.

 

Like several more N. American total solar eclipses worth of time.

 

Don't make me do the math. I'm still working on the Astro liberal arts major hypotenuse reference

[Just in Atlanta]

Nice post. Good logic.

 

But make no mistake: This is a far bigger gamble than keeping Watkins/Darby and it says to the league and fans that this is a throwaway season.

[Beast]

I think the opposite, rebuilding means job security for everyone. Many of the season ticket holders are locked in by now expecting to see our 3 core superstars in Sammy, Shady, and T Mobile because that why you go, to watch playmakers make plays. Bill Polian will tell you the sprinkling of star players is a necessity for a championship caliber football team. Buffalo gave up allot to get Sammy Watkins and recieved a fraction of what he cost in return. Russ Brandon is perfectly willing to gut a football team just like he decimated a veteran Bills Oline as acting GM back in the day without a second thought and brought in a popular over the hill player to appease the fan base. Sound familiar? it should.

 

How can the OC of your football team call for more anticipation on throws from his QB Then send the last WR on the roster he has any chemistry with packing. From an offensive perspective dealing Sammy hurt the team and it did not seem like a move/disruption a new GM or HC wants to make in my humble opinion.

 

The Bills are getting put into rebuild mode like the Sabres and the push is coming from R Brandon IMO.

 

Thanks for the great read OP and I understand the philosophy behind building through the draft.

 

When did Taylor become a superstar?

[McBean]

The Rockpile Review by Shaw66

 

The Brandon Beane Era Begins

 

Brandon Beane arrived in Buffalo three months ago. He was the new guy in town, replacing the last new guy, who replaced the new guy before him. Over time, each new guy made his mark on the team, and then he left. He made a mark, but he didnt win.

 

So Beane took over in May, and now its his turn to make his mark. He did a few deals, nothing very remarkable. It seemed as though wed have to wait until free agency and the draft in 2018 to get a sense of who this man is and what his team-building strategy looks like. Or so it seemed.

 

Less than a day after an ordinary and uneventful preseason opener, Beane reshaped the 2017 starting lineup and set himself up to build the team that he and Sean McDermott envision.

 

In separate deals, Beane traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby and filled their spots in the lineup with quality starters. He also banked second- and third-round picks in the 2018 draft.

 

Yesterday, we could only speculate about how and what Beane and McDermott want to build. Today, its pretty clear.

 

1. They want to build through the draft. Beane confirmed it in his press conference. Why through the draft? Because drafted players cost less than free agents; acquiring less expensive players means more players under the cap with the talent and skills McDermott wants.

 

2. McDermott is confident that system trumps talent, that a lot of good players playing in the right system will beat great players whose talents force the team to adjust to them. He knows Watkins is better than Matthews and Darby is probably better than Gaines, but he also knows that Matthews and Gaines plus the two guys the Bills can draft next year are probably better, collectively, than Watkins and Darby.

 

3. They think they need a true franchise quarterback, not just a good quarterback. Taylor may be a good a quarterback, but he almost certainly isnt a franchise quarterback. Are they done with Taylor? Not necessarily. But the deals put the Bills in position to go after the QB they want if Taylor doesnt make major strides this season. And if Taylor has a good but not great season, dont be surprised if the Bills trade down again in 2018, stockpiling 2019 picks so that they can have one more year to look at Taylor.

 

4. Theyre students of the Belichick way. Belichick trades his top talent rather than pay it. He can afford to pay a GIllislee $4 million because he isnt paying anyone other than a QB $14 million. Beane and McDermott will take a good role player (Matthews) over a better, but costlier star (Watkins). Belichick stockpiles draft picks, often trading down. McDermott traded down in the 2017 draft, instead of trading up for a Watkins. In every practice McDermott puts his players into a particular game situation tells them the situation, tells them how to respond, puts them on the field to practice it. It was reported as innovative, but Belichick has been doing that for years.

 

5. The Pegulas have turned this team over to Beane and McDermott. The deals were bold moves, and Beane must have gone to the Pegulas, if not for their prior approval, at least as a courtesy. A GM that didnt have his owners confidence might have been told to cool it, to hold on to the guy who, at least on paper, was your biggest star. It seems the Pegulas response was its your decision.

 

6. Doug Whaleys approach to his job was to acquire and keep talent. He proudly announced that he had his top six, the highly paid guys who will lead the team: Taylor, Glenn, Watkins, McCoy, Dareus, Gilmore and Hughes). And in truth it wasnt a bad collection of players. But Whaley never articulated, and his acquisitions never revealed, a greater plan about how to build a team. He was hampered by having had a coach (Rex) and maybe another (Marrone), who also didnt have a well-defined strategy. The GMs and coaches, to one extent or another, seemed to think it was enough to get good players and coach em up. McDermott and Beane have a plan; they have an idea of who players fit the plan. (Sounds a bit like Belichick, doesnt it?) Gilmore didnt fit, not at that price (he may be a fit in Belichicks, but not McDermotts). Watkins didnt fit, not at that price. Hughes, Dareus, Glenn, Taylor, McCoy all have gotten the message.

 

7. Beane may be young, but hes in charge. He handled the press conference like a real pro. Straight, on-point answers to some questions, always positive about the players he decided to trade while emphasizing that in return he got players who can play, and flatly and directly declining to answer questions that reveal his future plans.

 

8. Beane may be young, but like Whaley, he isnt afraid. First time GM, one of the youngest in the league; a lot of guys in that position would have backed away from the table and just let 2017 play out with the hand he was dealt. Not Beane.

 

9. Weve heard a lot about how the Bills will be running a variant of the west coast offense, with an emphasis on possession passing and strong running. We saw a lot of short passes in the preseason opener. The acquisitions of Boldin and Matthews reinforce that view. Big targets, possession receivers. The trades scream that the Bills want to be effective, not flashy.

 

I hated to see Sammy go. Hes a special talent, and its so much fun to watch special talent perform for the team I root for. Itll be brutal to watch if he puts up a monster season this year, and he could.

 

But I like the moves. I like them because the team may be better this season (and in any case not terribly worse) than 2016, and I like them because the moves should make the team stronger going forward.

 

Most of all I like them because they say that the Bills, for the first time in a long time, have men in charge who have a plan, who are pursuing that plan every day, and who wont be distracted froam the goal. They have men in charge who have the full support, emotional and financial, of the owners. I like that.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full days hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Great post.

 

This is the most confident I've been with this team in 20 years.

 

Yesterday was a great day and we'll reap the benefits for a very long time IMO.

[Figster]

When did Taylor become a superstar?

touche,

 

Is there anything more exciting then T Mobile to Sammy long or Tyrod avoiding a sack and running for a TD?

 

I'm not a season ticket holder or someone who puts a great deal of time and money traveling long distances to catch games.

 

I feel for our fellow patrons/Bills fans that do go the extra mile.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Figster

[baskingridgebillsfan]

Nice post. Good logic.

 

But make no mistake: This is a far bigger gamble than keeping Watkins/Darby and it says to the league and fans that this is a throwaway season.

disagree. Signing Watkins is the risk. The team won 7 games without both last year. Plus Rex was a total mess. This team is what it has been and like most teams without a qb. Bad year 6 wins good year 10 wins. Considering the schedule is look rough 7 sounds about right.

[Beast]

Is there anything more exciting then T Mobile to Sammy long or Tyrod avoiding a sack and running for a TD?

Yes.

 

Winning games.

 

Again, when did Taylor become a superstar?

Edited August 12, 2017 by Binghamton Beast

[Crusher]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

[stuvian]

We are becoming an organization rather than an assembly of players. I feel bad for guys like Kyle Williams who have given us everything year in year out in that he may not be around for the next upswing. Its clear that Beane and Co. are much more developed in their thinking than DW ever was. We are building long term value rather than trying to get a wild card now so that our contracts will get renewed.

 

Maybe Dennison can engineer a 30 TD season out of TT. If there is a franchise QB in next year's draft we're going to land him.

[Figster]

Yes.

 

Winning games.

 

Again, when did Taylor become a superstar?

I'm the wrong person to ask...

[RoyBatty is alive]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

 

 

Ah but unlike in the past, right now the Bills have enough "currency" (2 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) in terms of picks that realistically the will land a legit POTENTIAL franchise QB, probably the first or second pick in the draft so if they go 2-12 or 7-9 it won't matter much. I assume the Jets get their QB in the #1 slot and we are not far behind.

 

Unlike in the past the Bills appear to have a long term plan, not just patching holes so they can muddle along and go 7-9..

 

Trust me, you are not going to see this regime do a boneheaded trade up to get a WR, QB is the play al the way.

We are becoming an organization rather than an assembly of players. I feel bad for guys like Kyle Williams who have given us everything year in year out in that he may not be around for the next upswing. Its clear that Beane and Co. are much more developed in their thinking than DW ever was. We are building long term value rather than trying to get a wild card now so that our contracts will get renewed.

 

Maybe Dennison can engineer a 30 TD season out of TT. If there is a franchise QB in next year's draft we're going to land him.

Correct analysis here.

[Crusher]

 

 

Ah but unlike in the past, right now the Bills have enough "currency" (2 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) in terms of picks that realistically the will land a legit POTENTIAL franchise QB, probably the first or second pick in the draft so if they go 2-12 or 7-9 it won't matter much. I assume the Jets get their QB in the #1 slot and we are not far behind.

 

Unlike in the past the Bills appear to have a long term plan, not just patching holes so they can muddle along and go 7-9..

 

Trust me, you are not going to see this regime do a boneheaded trade up to get a WR, QB is the play al the way.

 

Correct analysis here.

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

[RoyBatty is alive]

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

Possibly, the Jets are in an almost shameful tank mode this year, we will win a few games and I dont think it will be because of TT more so it will be new coaching. Cleveland might have their guy in Kizer so the leading worst teams looking for a QB will possibly be the Bills & Jets, maybe the 49ers. This is supposedly a deep QB class of potentially elite QBs.

[Shaw66]

Nice post. Good logic.

 

But make no mistake: This is a far bigger gamble than keeping Watkins/Darby and it says to the league and fans that this is a throwaway season.

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

The OP totes the same company line year after year...regime after regime. More of the same.

 

Trying to emulate the Pats is a nice idea, but it's not something that anyone else has really been able to do...mostly because Belichek is by far and away the best coach in the game, and he has a brilliant QB that runs his system exactly how he wants him to.

 

I am more skeptical of this regime after the recent moves, and I don't believe in dumping a star like Watkins for pennies on the dollar. This wasn't even character over talent...it was draft picks over elite talent, and I don't believe in that.

 

Maybe it works if the Bills tank and get that ever so elusive QB that can do it all behind a defense that McDermott and Beane restructure and rebuild with their own guys, but these are much easier said than done.

 

As always...time will tell. If I had to guess though, I would say this ends up another failed regime that couldn't get the right QB because they won too many games playing a low risk, low reward brand of football that doesn't lose games, but doesn't win many either, so we never get the QB required to make the jump into a true contender.

 

I will as always hope I am wrong and will root for the best.

 

This regime is doing things completely differently then the last 2. they are putting stock in the draft and bringing in the right players for what the coaching staff wants. We actually have options next year instead of being hamstrung because of trading away your picks.

 

Say what you will about Mathews but his stats are better then Sammy's over the last 3 years and we landed a CB that's better suited for a zone scheme. Then you add in a 2nd and 3rd round pick. So I'm confused how this was pennies on the dollar.

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

 

Shaw to your point even if this team goes 5-11 we stock piled picks for next years draft. Our worst case scenario on paper no longer looks that bad.

[HappyDays]

Agreed almost entirely Shaw. Only part I disagreed with was this:

 

he also knows that Matthews and Gaines plus the two guys the Bills can draft next year are probably better, collectively, than Watkins and Darby.

Beane is smart enough to know Matthews and Gaines are not better than Watkins and Darby, and 2 unknown prospects that we're taking a year from now shouldn't even factor in.

 

But it was still smart for a different reason. If Beane is pretty sure Watkins and Darby aren't coming back once their rookie deals are up, we might as well recoup something for them instead of renting them for a year and watching them walk. It's a brilliant move that past regimes would never make because they were too afraid to look past the upcoming season. That's how you build a team, looking ahead. Accept the short term loss for the long term gain.

 

Good moves that make me feel optimistic about the future. But now everything rides on the 2018 draft and that's a little scary.

[wiskibreth]

The Clinton political model eh? I bet you are right.

 

I know he's right.

[Shaw66]

 

This regime is doing things completely differently then the last 2. they are putting stock in the draft and bringing in the right players for what the coaching staff wants. We actually have options next year instead of being hamstrung because of trading away your picks.

 

Say what you will about Mathews but his stats are better then Sammy's over the last 3 years and we landed a CB that's better suited for a zone scheme. Then you add in a 2nd and 3rd round pick. So I'm confused how this was pennies on the dollar.

 

 

Shaw to your point even if this team goes 5-11 we stock piled picks for next years draft. Our worst case scenario on paper no longer looks that bad.

Crushed is difficult to respond to. He sounds rational but he's perpetually negative. If you notice, he said stockpiling picks to get a an doesn't work and being mediocre doesn't work. His solution is to tank, even though no team in the history of the league has done that. Well, maybe the Colts.

 

The packers have gotten TWO franchise QBs without tanking. The Psts got theirs withour tanking. Brees went in the second round. Crushers just good at being being negative.

 

And he accused me of being an optimist. My piece was optimistic only when I said I liked what they're doing. I have no idea if it will work. I think the season and the next seasons depend on what kind of HC McDermott is. My view is that he's 50-50 or worse to be any good.

[Figster]

I don't think it's such a big gamble. Losing Watkins and Darby means the Bills will lose, at most. One more game than if they'd kept them. And Matthews and Gained will cut into that considerably. Plus I suspect that Watkins wasn't a good fit for the offense. I'm guessing we will see run dominant, possession passing ball co tell offense, and a gifted burner like Sammy is a luxury in that offense. Matthews fits better.

 

Of course, everything is a gamble, and the Bills could go 5-11. However, if that happens, it will be because McD is failing, not because Sammy wasn't in the lineup.

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

It's a bunch of excuses and apologies. There was NO PLAN. THERE IS NO PLAN. Did he articulate a PLAN yesterday? NO! He said he wasn't planning to trade them! but people approached! He's an opportunist, without a plan.

You've officially lost your ****.

[JM2009]

It doesn't matter how many picks you have when the top teams in the draft need a QB.

 

This team needs to tank and leapfrog the Jets.

 

TT and his game management offense will net us enough wins to not get our guy...book it.

My goodness I actually agree with this.

[Billzgobowlin]

Shaw great post and I'd say your spot on.

 

What excites me the most is for the first time in a long team it appears that the Bills have a plan. We are going to have several options at addressing the QB position next year.

 

If TT pans out were loaded with picks to build a winner and to your point its going to be with rookie cap friendly contracts.

 

If we have to go in another direction we can make a serious run at either Kirk Cousins or perhaps Jimmy Garopplo. and again the Bills are loaded with Picks to build a team around them.

 

Or this Bills can package their stock pile of picks and try to land Darnold, Rudolph, or Rosen.

 

Dare we say the Bills just won the offseason by setting this team up for the long haul???

Cleveland has stockpiled picks for the past three years. The important thing is what can we do with the assets.

[HappyDays]

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

This is how the deal could end up looking really bad. If the Bills just miss the playoffs and our passing offense is just okay, and Sammy stays healthy all year, there will be real questions about the Bills punting to next year when they could have won NOW.

 

But I also think that scenario is incredibly unlikely.

[Shaw66]

Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

 

 

with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

I'm not as worried as you because of the offense. Taylor's job is to read and throw. I think its less about communication than the previous offense. It's the receivers job to get to the spot and he has two for receivers, veterans, who can do that. Two guys with size and who catch in traffic. So I think the transition to new receivers will be easier than you say. I may be wrong.

[Billzgobowlin]

Crushed is difficult to respond to. He sounds rational but he's perpetually negative. If you notice, he said stockpiling picks to get a an doesn't work and being mediocre doesn't work. His solution is to tank, even though no team in the history of the league has done that. Well, maybe the Colts.

 

The packers have gotten TWO franchise QBs without tanking. The Psts got theirs withour tanking. Brees went in the second round. Crushers just good at being being negative.

 

And he accused me of being an optimist. My piece was optimistic only when I said I liked what they're doing. I have no idea if it will work. I think the season and the next seasons depend on what kind of HC McDermott is. My view is that he's 50-50 or worse to be any good.

This is a very good point and needs to be highlighted. We will not become a better team with tanking. The only way we get a franchise QB is if our scouting department finds one. You can draft Peyton Manning, Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russell 1st overall. The "best" qb in the class doesn't mean you have your qb.