Bills trade Sammy Watkins to Rams for CB Gaines, 2nd rd pick

[Saint Doug]

After a couple days to digest this, here are my thoughts. The Bills offense will be no worse than they were last year because Watkins wasn't even on the field last year and they did pretty good. Our defense was the reason we didn't make the playoffs, not Sammy's absence.

 

That said, if we kept Sammy, I think it would've been worth the difference between a 2nd and a 3rd comp pick (if we don't sign him). It would've been worth it to see if he could turn it around. My guess is they had no intention, for good or bad, of resigning him next season. Declining the 5th year option supports this. So, I suppose it was best to get what you could, a 2nd rounder. This trade had nothing to do with EJ Gaines. He was a toss in.

[Boatdrinks]

Posted this in the other trade thread, but, in a vacuum, $10 million per year for a guy who will usually be in the line-up and give you about 900 yards and 5-6 TDs is good value.

Edit: Also, unsure how Matthews/Jones/Boldin seems like anything worse than an above average top 3 WRs.

It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR.

[BUFFALOTONE]

With respect to the highlighted segment that is the core issue. What do you do with the picks? If they make good picks the rebuild strategy will work. If they don't draft well then this strategy or any roster building strategy will fail. If some of the picks are parlayed into acquiring a legitimate qb prospect then how can anyone complain, especially since this franchise hasn't had a franchise qb for almost a quarter century?

That's the crux of this entire thing. Can they draft well. It's a new unproven regime, but it's what we have to lean on. All we can do is hope they put the right people in the right place. It was obvious the disconnect between scouts, front office and whomever wanted lay say or control. Whaley was in over his head from the beginning. Made a few good moves but panicked and was impulsive on others. Can't have that at this level with that big of a spot light.

[BillsFan4]

He was being facetious

Lol. Thanks. it's hard to tell on the internet sometimes...

 

Yeah, I was tying to be nice. But I really didn't see all that much similarity.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR.

 

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years.

 

An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history.

 

If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

[Boatdrinks]

After a couple days to digest this, here are my thoughts. The Bills offense will be no worse than they were last year because Watkins wasn't even on the field last year and they did pretty good. Our defense was the reason we didn't make the playoffs, not Sammy's absence.

That said, if we kept Sammy, I think it would've been worth the difference between a 2nd and a 3rd comp pick (if we don't sign him). It would've been worth it to see if he could turn it around. My guess is they had no intention, for good or bad, of resigning him next season. Declining the 5th year option supports this. So, I suppose it was best to get what you could, a 2nd rounder. This trade had nothing to do with EJ Gaines. He was a toss in.

If the bar is last years moribund passing Offense, then yes it should be no worse than that (although none of these WRs were here withTT previously) . That could mean chemistry issues early on . Keeping SW was absolutely worth the payoff for the Bills if he stayed healthy. It would have cost them nothing but a very manageable 5th year salary to retain him for 2 seasons. An awful move for theBills unless they get hugely lucky with that 2nd rounder ( unlikely). Gaines is a throw in player to make it appear a little better for the Bills FO.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years.

 

An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history.

 

If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

 

Not when considering the number of target opportunities and the significant difference in YPC in favor of Sammy.

[Boatdrinks]

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years.

 

An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history.

 

If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

 

So you think ABs best days are not behind him? This isn't even the SB Boldin with the Ravens back in '13. Watkins YPC was significantly higher than JM if I recall. Matthews isn't going to take the top off a defense. Can't put too much stock in a rookie WR. They often struggle to get off the line in year one. Edited August 13, 2017 by Boatdrinks

[oldmanfan]

It's an aging vet with his best days behind him, an unknown rookie that will likely have his ups/ downs, and a good #2 WR.

. And better than last year when Sammy was out

[JohnBonhamRocks]

 

Not when considering the number of target opportunities and the significant difference in YPC in favor of Sammy.

 

Tough to get targets when you're not playing.

[BillsFan4]

The only thing I remember is a poster here a month or so ago saying he talked to a player or heard from a player (can't remember) that they felt the offense ran better without Sammy because the QB didn't always feel pressured to target him. Don't shoot the messenger btw - it is just a random post that I remember and it kind of stuck in my head. I guess, if true, it would be kind of like when Megatron left Detroit and - though I don't watch a lot of Lions football - I understand from casually paying attention that some Lions fans felt the offense actually improved because Stafford was just spreading the ball around. Again, I know people are very sensitive about this topic and I'm not saying this to be true, it is just stuff I read and thought it was relevant to the discussion.

I remember that too. I had been wanting to bring that up but I couldn't remember where I read it though.

 

Yeah he said a number of Bills players felt the offense opened up more withOUT Sammy in the lineup.

 

Like you said, who knows if it's true. But I could see it TBH. We know Sammy wanted the ball forced to him any time he had 1 on 1 coverage, since he literally said it to the press.

 

I could especially see it being true while Doug Whaley was still here. I am not sure on this but I want to say that I even remember hearing something along those lines before (on Whaley & Sammy getting the ball).

[mannc]

A few questions about the trade:

 

Were there other offers for SW?

 

How long have they been shopping him?

 

Would SW have had a higher trade value if Bills had picked up his 5th year option? (Seems obvious to me.)

 

If so, why wasn't it picked up?

 

Why wasn't SW traded before this year's draft?

[NoSaint]

Edit: Also, unsure how Matthews/Jones/Boldin seems like anything worse than an above average top 3 WRs.

Above average?!?

[JohnBonhamRocks]

So you think ABs best days are not behind him? This isn't even the SB Boldin with the Ravens back in '13. Watkins YPC was significantly higher than JM if I recall. Matthews isn't going to take the top off a defense. Can't put too much stock in a rookie WR. They often struggle to get off the line in year one.

 

His best days are certainly behind him. Good thing the range of 500-800 yards and 4-8 TDs is not as good as his best days and still totally possible to reach this year.

 

Matthews and Jones both run in the 4.4s, so while they aren't likely to line up to Goodwin at the Olympics, they can still get down field. Yeah, Watkins has a better YPC, but again that's when he's playing.

 

I won't go so far as to say Jones is a lock for any type of production, but if I had to put too much stock into a rookie WR, then a guy with Jones' sustained production would be my choice.

[Saint Doug]

If the bar is last years moribund passing Offense, then yes it should be no worse than that (although none of these WRs were here withTT previously) . That could mean chemistry issues early on . Keeping SW was absolutely worth the payoff for the Bills if he stayed healthy. It would have cost them nothing but a very manageable 5th year salary to retain him for 2 seasons. An awful move for theBills unless they get hugely lucky with that 2nd rounder ( unlikely). Gaines is a throw in player to make it appear a little better for the Bills FO.

The passing offense was offensive, but I still don't think Sammy would've fixed it. We had wide open receivers last year and TT couldn't get them the ball. In this case, and many others, an elite WR isn't going to win you a championship, but an elite QB will.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Above average?!?

 

At least.

[BringBackOrton]

 

Tough to get targets when you're not playing.

Jordan Matthews got 2 more targets per game last year and had 4.4 less yards per catch.

 

Watkins is a way better player. Matthews is Stevie Johnson 2.0.

[NoSaint]

I remember that too. I had been wanting to bring that up but I couldn't remember where I read it though.

 

Yeah he said a number of Bills players felt the offense opened up more withOUT Sammy in the lineup.

 

Like you said, who knows if it's true. But I could see it TBH. We know Sammy wanted the ball forced to him any time he had 1 on 1 coverage, since he literally said it to the press.

 

I could especially see it being true while Doug Whaley was still here. I am not sure on this but I want to say that I even remember hearing something along those lines before (on Whaley & Sammy getting the ball).

We've seen that a bunch but how many games did we puta heavy focus on Sammy and suffer? It's got to be an incredibly limited number of games he got the targets a #1 should and many of those were good days for the offense

[BillsFan4]

Shady has said something to Sammy. Haven't seen anyone else but I'm not really looking.

I found Shady's quotes to be interesting. This one in particular -

 

"Sammy's one of them guys where, he's been like a superstar his whole life," McCoy said. "He hasn't had a real older mentor that has done more than him that can really give him advice. It's one thing to take advice from older guys that he's probably better than or done more than. But a guy that can really talk about success on the field and off the field, and listen to ... that's something we've been developing even in my short period of time here"

 

 

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of felt that McCoy was implying that Sammy never had any real interest in listening to or taking advise from any veteran players that were not as talented as he was. Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but that's what I got from it.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Jordan Matthews got 2 more targets per game last year and had 4.4 less yards per catch.

 

Watkins is a way better player. Matthews is Stevie Johnson 2.0.

 

When evaluating players, there is a choice to consider or not consider how their availability impacts their overall value.

 

I choose to consider it.

 

When I do, I see two guys from the same draft class who have averaged the following over their first three years (Matthews vs. Watkins):

- 75 vs. 51 catches

- 891 vs. 819 yards

- 6.3 vs. 5.6 TDs

 

PS: Johnson's best 3 years stretch in Buffalo is better than both Matthews and Watkins.

Edited August 13, 2017 by JohnBonhamRocks

[Crusher]

 

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years.

 

An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history.

 

If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

The difference is that Watkins played in a run dominant system with a limited QB throwing to him.

 

This is the problem I have with people using numbers...they ignore other factors and disregard what you can actually see when watching these two players at work.

 

Matthews isn't even in the same neighborhood as Watkins as a player...the margin in skill and talent is wide.

[BringBackOrton]

 

When evaluating players, there is a choice to consider or not consider how their availability impacts their overall value.

 

I choose to consider it. When I do, I see two guys from the same draft class who have averaged the following over their first three years (Matthews vs. Watkins):

- 75 vs. 51 catches

- 891 vs. 819 yards

- 6.3 vs. 5.6 TDs

 

PS: Johnson's best 3 years stretch in Buffalo is better than both Matthews and Watkins.

And yet, when evaluating players, NFL teams thought Sammy was worth a second round pick and a CB, but Jordan Matthews needed a 3rd attached to him to trade him for Darby.

 

SJ13 received a high number of targets and thus produced good numbers. Just like Matthews. But neither are very good.

 

If Sammy received as many targets on a per game basis as Matthews, he would have had way better numbers still playing in less games.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

When evaluating players, there is a choice to consider or not consider how their availability impacts their overall value.

 

I choose to consider it.

 

When I do, I see two guys from the same draft class who have averaged the following over their first three years (Matthews vs. Watkins):

- 75 vs. 51 catches

- 891 vs. 819 yards

- 6.3 vs. 5.6 TDs

 

PS: Johnson's best 3 years stretch in Buffalo is better than both Matthews and Watkins.

 

The per game average is the correct method for comparison with Matthews playing in 9 more games than Watkins.

[Boatdrinks]

The passing offense was offensive, but I still don't think Sammy would've fixed it. We had wide open receivers last year and TT couldn't get them the ball. In this case, and many others, an elite WR isn't going to win you a championship, but an elite QB will.

I won't disagree with that point. TT is most likely not going to be an elite QB. That will have to come from the draft most likely. That said, even a top QB needs targets and SW being here is better than not . It certainly wouldn't have impeded the Bills ability to get their QB in any way. SW and a future QB were not mutually exclusive. Could have had both.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

The difference is that Watkins played in a run dominant system with a limited QB throwing to him.

 

This is the problem I have with people using numbers...they ignore other factors and disregard what you can actually see when watching these two players at work.

 

Matthews isn't even in the same neighborhood as Watkins as a player...the margin in skill and talent is wide.

 

Again, not arguing talent vs. talent. Matthews isn't as good, but he's on the field more, so the stats even out.

 

Hypothetical: would you take the most talented WR in NFL history if you knew he could only play 8-12 games?

 

Watkins has played in a run-dominant system, agreed. Not sure how that would change had he stayed.

 

Matthews also caught balls from Sanchez/Foles/Bradford/Wentz. None of them are exactly blowing Taylor out of the water.

[BillsFan4]

We've seen that a bunch but how many games did we puta heavy focus on Sammy and suffer? It's got to be an incredibly limited number of games he got the targets a #1 should and many of those were good days for the offense

I agree. The offense didn't suffer. I just found it interesting that the players felt the offense opened up more without him (if indeed that is true).

 

McDermott seems very very focused on building a true team, where guys are 100% all in and willing to do whatever it takes for the team to win. It just kind of made me wonder (along with some of the other things we fans have read/heard) on how well Sammy truly fit into the locker room. I have no idea though. Just something I wondered about.

[Boatdrinks]

The difference is that Watkins played in a run dominant system with a limited QB throwing to him.

This is the problem I have with people using numbers...they ignore other factors and disregard what you can actually see when watching these two players at work.

Matthews isn't even in the same neighborhood as Watkins as a player...the margin in skill and talent is wide.

A very salient point. Of course the counter will be " but last year.." or " we have a limited QB" as if those factors are here permanently because it the Bills and well, we don't / can't have or like nice things. This McBeane combo is supposed to change things and acquire that QB. Why having a SW around , even ... gasp! .. before or when that QB gets here is a " problem" makes no sense.

Again, not arguing talent vs. talent. Matthews isn't as good, but he's on the field more, so the stats even out.

 

Hypothetical: would you take the most talented WR in NFL history if you knew he could only play 8-12 games?

 

Watkins has played in a run-dominant system, agreed. Not sure how that would change had he stayed.

 

Matthews also caught balls from Sanchez/Foles/Bradford/Wentz. None of them are exactly blowing Taylor out of the water.

 

But you don't KNOW that about Watkins. You either believe the anti Watkins macho crap on this board or you think you can predict the future. The fact is , SW could quite possibly not have another major injury and play 10+ more seasons.

[BringBackOrton]

 

Again, not arguing talent vs. talent. Matthews isn't as good, but he's on the field more, so the stats even out.

 

Hypothetical: would you take the most talented WR in NFL history if you knew he could only play 8-12 games?

 

Watkins has played in a run-dominant system, agreed. Not sure how that would change had he stayed.

 

Matthews also caught balls from Sanchez/Foles/Bradford/Wentz. None of them are exactly blowing Taylor out of the water.

Yes.

[Boatdrinks]

I agree. The offense didn't suffer. I just found it interesting that the players felt the offense opened up more without him (if indeed that is true).

McDermott seems very very focused on building a true team, where guys are 100% all in and willing to do whatever it takes for the team to win. It just kind of made me wonder (along with some of the other things we fans have read/heard) on how well Sammy truly fit into the locker room. I have no idea though. Just something I wondered about.

The offense didn't open up without Watkins. The play calling changed quite a bit after Roman was fired. That was the biggest difference in the O's style. The passing game would likely have been better with SW. More like we saw in say the 2nd MIA game.

[Magox]

Everyone gets that he is an elite level talent but we can't begin to have an honest discussion unless you recognize his durability issues and lack of overall production. And then combine that with what he most likely he will be commanding on the open market.

 

Some of you just want to sweep it under the rug as if this isn't a concern and then go on pretending as if he has already realized his potential and it's a given that this will be the case moving forward.

 

Durability matters, and that is part of the calculation that any responsible GM should take into account when evaluating the player. You can disagree with the judgement of the GM, but to not recognize the merit and the logic of the decision is lacking in thought

[BringBackOrton]

Everyone gets that he is an elite level talent but we can't begin to have an honest discussion unless you recognize his durability issues and lack of overall production. And then combine that with what he most likely he will be commanding on the open market.

 

Some of you just want to sweep it under the rug as if this isn't a concern and then go on pretending as if he has already realized his potential and it's a given that this will be the case moving forward.

 

Durability matters, and that is part of the calculation that any responsible GM should take into account when evaluating the player. You can disagree with the judgement of the GM, but to not recognize the merit and the logic of the decision is lacking in thought

You can't have a discussion about "lack of overall production" of a WR without acknowledging target discrepancies. You also can't have a discussion about what he will command without factoring what his replacement will cost.

 

Jordan Matthews will command $2-3M less than Sammy a year. That's it.

[3rdand12]

 

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years.

 

An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history.

 

If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

Well defensed

I like the cut of your jib on this one.

Sammy was likely not all in. Best thing for everyone was to get him a fresh start.

And I am learning to like Matthews as a very god fit in Beane/McDermott vision of the Bills.

[26CornerBlitz]

Everyone gets that he is an elite level talent but we can't begin to have an honest discussion unless you recognize his durability issues and lack of overall production. And then combine that with what he most likely he will be commanding on the open market.

 

Some of you just want to sweep it under the rug as if this isn't a concern and then go on pretending as if he has already realized his potential and it's a given that this will be the case moving forward.

 

Durability matters, and that is part of the calculation that any responsible GM should take into account when evaluating the player. You can disagree with the judgement of the GM, but to not recognize the merit and the logic of the decision is lacking in thought

 

Julio Jones and Dez Bryant sustained the same injury and both rebounded nicely. Sammy has now had a 2nd procedure and is now finally healthy after trying to play through it last season. I don't get this lack of production talk if you have done any kind of examination of his numbers.

[3rdand12]

I found Shady's quotes to be interesting. This one in particular -

 

"Sammy's one of them guys where, he's been like a superstar his whole life," McCoy said. "He hasn't had a real older mentor that has done more than him that can really give him advice. It's one thing to take advice from older guys that he's probably better than or done more than. But a guy that can really talk about success on the field and off the field, and listen to ... that's something we've been developing even in my short period of time here"

 

 

Maybe it's just me, but I kind of felt that McCoy was implying that Sammy never had any real interest in listening to or taking advise from any veteran players that were not as talented as he was. Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but that's what I got from it.

I can feel that as well.

[26CornerBlitz]

Well defensed

I like the cut of your jib on this one.

Sammy was likely not all in. Best thing for everyone was to get him a fresh start.

And I am learning to like Matthews as a very god fit in Beane/McDermott vision of the Bills.

 

Based on what?

[JohnBonhamRocks]

And yet, when evaluating players, NFL teams thought Sammy was worth a second round pick and a CB, but Jordan Matthews needed a 3rd attached to him to trade him for Darby.

 

SJ13 received a high number of targets and thus produced good numbers. Just like Matthews. But neither are very good.

 

If Sammy received as many targets on a per game basis as Matthews, he would have had way better numbers still playing in less games.

See bold.

 

Plus, over the past 3 years:

 

- Matthews targeted 337 times in 45 games (about 7-8 targets per game)

- Watkins targeted 273 times in 36 games (about 7-8 targets per game)

 

I don't see the disparity in the numbers.

 

 

The per game average is the correct method for comparison with Matthews playing in 9 more games than Watkins.

See above.

 

And why is that method "correct"? I bet Matthews has more impact on a game in which he plays than Watkins does from the bench.

 

Yes.

Better hope that WR isn't out for a game where the playoffs are on the line!

[3rdand12]

 

Based on what?

My opinion. I do not think he liked being in a run first offense all these years and how he was used.. My opinion is he was pretty unhappy not being used to his ability.

I wish him well

[26CornerBlitz]

See bold.

 

Plus, over the past 3 years:

 

- Matthews targeted 337 times in 45 games (about 7-8 targets per game)

- Watkins targeted 273 times in 36 games (about 7-8 targets per game)

 

I don't see the disparity in the numbers.

 

See above.

 

And why is that method "correct"? I bet Matthews has more impact on a game in which he plays than Watkins does from the bench.

 

Better hope that WR isn't out for a game where the playoffs are on the line!

 

11.9 YPC vs 16.1 YPC in favor of Sammy. Matthews has 19 TDs vs. 17 TDs for Sammy in 9 fewer games. More explosive and dangerous by far is Watkins.

[NoSaint]

 

11.9 YPC vs 16.1 YPC in favor of Sammy. Matthews has 19 TDs vs. 17 TDs for Sammy in 9 fewer games. More explosive and dangerous by far is Watkins.

I'm still wrapping my head around us being "at least" above average as a unit now. I'm curious where he actually ranks us.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

 

11.9 YPC vs 16.1 YPC in favor of Sammy. Matthews has 19 TDs vs. 17 TDs for Sammy in 9 fewer games. More explosive and dangerous by far is Watkins.

 

You said, "The per game average is the correct method for comparison with Matthews playing in 9 more games than Watkins."

 

Then I showed how they have the same targets per game, but because Matthews plays more often his stats are a little better.

 

You're moving the goal posts by re-focusing on YPC and TDs per game, but even considering that, my argument is on the "per game" part. Less games = less TDs, no?

 

Let me stress that I agree it is obvious Watkins is a more explosive and dangerous WR. But Matthews is more productive overall because he's the more available and consistent WR.