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Football Outsiders: Bills will be 'measurably worse' in 2017


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I have seen him do this but I think your right in that he becomes a runner when he decides to pull the ball down.....in which case it becomes BETTER for the receiver to turn blocker

Holmes is actually a willing and pretty good blocker. Maybe not Bob Woods level but pretty good all the same.

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But from my memory, when a pass play breaks down, and Tyrod scrambles, he usually instinctively goes directly to the run, trusting his legs to bail him out. I don't remember him scanning the field looking for receivers breaking their routes for him very often. Maybe someone who has researched Tyrod can give us the scoop on his tendencies when a pass play breaks down.

 

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This article seems to hit the wrong weaknesses to me:

 

- Lost Top 2 of 3 WRs? True but for one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL. In terms of production clay was #1 woods #2 and McCoy #3 followed by goowin then Sammy. So they will need to replace woods 50 catches and goodwins 28. Given zay and a bunch of decent free agents, plus Sammy in a contract year, this group is stronger

 

- CB- Gilmore was a loss, White was a gain. The whole backfield was rebooted and Scheme sounds like it shifts predominantly to zone. We really have no clue what's going to happen to this unit so it's definitely the biggest unknown. And SAFETY is a total rebuild although with Hyde, I'd argue a positive one.

 

- gilly - the guy was on the bills practice squad after being cut twice by others. There are other guys that can produce 600 yds. And the pats overpaid for him leaving no choice. Back up RB may be the most easily replaced position in the league with high quality choices.

 

Weaknesses to me:

 

- a front four without a stud DE that can set the edge and get to the QB is the top concern. When the bills front 4 was very good they had a motivated Mario. A new weakness this year moving back to this alignment unless Shaq can be great.

 

- new run scheme. I'd argue last year was great for Shady. Not automatically sold the new scheme will be even better

 

- LBs - with out Fantastic ends setting the edge Are the LBs going to get beat outside because their slow? And if they do are the corners going to be there to make the tackle?

Nice analysis. There's a lot of pressure on Hughes and Lawson.

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Post draft, Las Vegas and alot of other doc called expert pundits are saying 6 wins, now PFF is saying only 3-4 wins, and just about everybody has us being 4th or 5th worst team in the AFC

 

We will find out soon enough if they are bang on or not, if they are, its gonna be an awakening for those here who insist we've had a great off season, and this and that rookie or FA is easily gonna replace whom we lost, or changing of scheme's is automatically worth X wins

 

And if we should only win 3-6 games, its gonna be real interesting to make a convincing argument, from Jan 2018 forward that all these management changes have put our team on the 'right track', when in fact the W-L record says something completely different, lol

 

Please don't get me wrong, I was calling for replacing Rex from the start, and I thought it was time for DW to go, and I love each new hire here, but at the same time I'm just not that convinced Sean's first off season has been all that successful in terms of acquiring talent necessary to win more NFL games that the team he took over, so far I not impressed whatsoever by his GM skills, though I'm sure his coaching skills are way better

 

Meanwhile fingers crossed Vegas, the pundits, PFF, are all dead wrong because us fans deserve watching our team win 10 games sometime this decade

 

jc

 

The management just changed. Hard to pin a poor season on them.

 

I like where you're head's at Doc. We need Sammy healthy, and if so we have more weapons and we have a far better coaching staff than the buffoons the last two years. No one should underestimate going to a 4-3 which our talent is designed for success, and improved communication and players can react not hesitate.

 

I agree completely.

 

While I understand Not overpaying Woods, I think you severely undervalue what Woods brought to the game for the Bills. Not just as a receiver, but as a blocker for Taylor and the running game when the pass plays broke down. Which happened way too often. Jones is already hurt, and is a total question mark at receiver until we see him in the regular season. He is a glimmer of hope, but as this point is just a dream, not a reality. Neither Holmes or Brown has shown themselves to be a #2 WR, much less a # 3. Maybe one could outperform their history and become a decent #3 (Goodwin's replacement). But based on their past history, they could also both end up being #4 talent as well.

 

Holmes is as much as #2 WR as Woods was. Their best seasons were similar. But if healthy, Sammy will be the man. And ideally, Jones becomes the #2 WR and is a stud.

 

I think Brown fits as the inside guy the best of the bunch, outside of Sammy who would be the best anywhere.

 

Yup, Brown will likely be penciled-in as the slot receiver.

 

With a better defense in 2016, this would have been a playoff team. Not Miami.

 

Yup.

 

I have seen him do this but I think your right in that he becomes a runner when he decides to pull the ball down.....in which case it becomes BETTER for the receiver to turn blocker because Tyrod has that rare athletic ability as QB to turn playmaker.

 

Holmes and the rest of the free agent WR's dont replace Woods (but easily replace goodwin imo) but that was NEVER the plan......Sammy is the blue chip WR player on this team and there is everyone else.

 

Zay Jones? Now he might actually replace Woods production.

 

Holmes and Brown can replace the production of Woods and Goodwin.

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Nice analysis. There's a lot of pressure on Hughes and Lawson.

...agree Shaw....but I think the pressure is applied to everybody as McD seems hell bent on accountability.....he went back and studied 2016 OTA film and did not like the tempo..never heard that before.......sure he's hamstrung by the divas who know they have huge dead cap hits, but me thinks he knows how to make their lives a living hell if they think it is a security blanket...and if they milk it, he'll cut them loose at the optimum financial time and good luck with them find similar money again......

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Is that T sizzle and Mcphee he makes miss? Two very good players. Love me some tyrod

 

He has his issues but Dennison knows exactly what they are and he's not beating around the bush. No question Tyrod is working on them as much as humanly possible.

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Gilislee was always going to be the key to this season. Just ask Scottlaw.

So that makes it ok to lose a good player who was by far the best backup to McCoy. On a team with little good depth as it is.

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Let's see how it plays out. 95% of us thought we would feel some pain from losing Karlos Williams. Also, IF we get 16 games from Sammy, that alone would cancel out the loss of Gillislee, Woods and even another player.

 

And are they considering Goodwin one of our top three receivers? I guess technically true, but his production will be replaceable by one of the new free agent acquisitions.

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Let's see how it plays out. 95% of us thought we would feel some pain from losing Karlos Williams. Also, IF we get 16 games from Sammy, that alone would cancel out the loss of Gillislee, Woods and even another player.

 

And are they considering Goodwin one of our top three receivers? I guess technically true, but his production will be replaceable by one of the new free agent acquisitions.

Goodwin wasn't a big loss, IMO. It's a big if right now that Watkins will play all 16 games. He really needs to.

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So that makes it ok to lose a good player who was by far the best backup to McCoy. On a team with little good depth as it is.

.....Jesus....and I'm NOT taking away from MG...BUT...he had 101 attempts yielding 577 yards.....yet you want to make it sound like we just let Eric Dickerson or AP go after 2,000+ yd seasons....drama queen?.....hell, TT rushed for 580..............

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MG loss could be a killer, and was totally unnecessary. Belichik is very happy again about our stupidity and loves his farm team. That said, if we get quality from last years 1 and 2 picks and some of the rookies perform, I wouldn't bet against the playoffs. Another quality receiver (Maclin?) would truly help.

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MG loss could be a killer, and was totally unnecessary. Belichik is very happy again about our stupidity and loves his farm team. That said, if we get quality from last years 1 and 2 picks and some of the rookies perform, I wouldn't bet against the playoffs. Another quality receiver (Maclin?) would truly help.

If you pencil in NE as winning the division(fair discussion point even if not guaranteed) then suddenly we land in a mess of if a half dozen teams fighting for 2 wildcard spots. We are probably in the lower part of that group but if we can get lucky and steal a game and 1-2 teams get unlucky with a couple bounces or injuries we could sneak in.

 

Calling it a long shot but not unreasonable seems fair.

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.....Jesus....and I'm NOT taking away from MG...BUT...he had 101 attempts yielding 577 yards.....yet you want to make it sound like we just let Eric Dickerson or AP go after 2,000+ yd seasons....drama queen?.....hell, TT rushed for 580..............

And quite a few TDs. He was a key part to this running offense.

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