2017 Draft Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Well what about that then? One of the more dramatic first rounds in recent years - especially in the first half of the first round. A lot to get through so here goes....

 

The Bills Trade Back

I think you have to split the trade back from the pick. I am on record as saying if I was the GM and Deshaun Watson was there at #10 I'd have picked him and I can equally understand why the huge Mahomers on the board wanted him to be the pick. I never bought the "this is a bad Quarterback class" or "this is like 2013 all over again". It just didn't tally with what I saw when I looked at the tape. NFL teams clearly agreed as not only were 3 Quarterbacks picked in the top 12 but all 3 were picked after teams paid heavy prices to get up for them. Talking of price I thought that we could have got another late round fly pick had we really pushed it. If the Chiefs love Mahomes that much they were not going to risk losing him for the sake of their 6th round pick were they? I think you ask for that you might be able to chuck a pick at Chad Kelly possibly later on. I feel like the Bills have punted again on taking a Quarterback when there were guys that can play there and available to them. Feels like we stuck pretty much to the trade value chart when I think the selling team should always try for a little more.

 

The Bills Pick

Having said all that.... looking purely at the pick itself and the timing and value of it I like Tre'Davious White at #27. I had him and Quincy Wilson right there together on my board with 1st/2nd borderline grades based on tape and gut instinct was just that I liked White a little more. He is a realty good shadow coverage guy who seems to have a great feel for the routes receivers run and is always there right around the ball. I get that some will say why let Gilmore go then pick a corner in the 1st.... but the value was absolutely there at #27 and I expect he is our starting corner opposite Ronald Darby when we take the field against the Jets.

 

My Mock

Not the best night for the final mock in terms of exact matches... especially frustrating as three exact matches (Fournette and the Jags; Charlton and the Cowboys; and Howard and the Buccaneers have appeared in version 1 or 2 and then I changed). The final score was:

 

- 26 out of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (Up from 23 out of 31 in 2016).

- only 2 exact matches - the two obvious ones Garrett and McCafffrey (down from 5 in 2016).

- 6 other matches where I got the position right but the player wrong (Up from 5 in 2016).

 

Player I was high on....

This was probably the Quarterback class as a whole. I was not at all stunned that 3 went in the first 12 picks. As I set out above I never thought this was the bad class some on here and even a few in the media wanted you to believe it was. I actually think all 3 have ended up in spots that are pretty good fits, particularly Watson and Mahomes. Watson was the guy for me who could start early if you give him a running game and a defense - both of which Houston has. Like a Big Ben or a Russell Wilson expect him to use his legs plenty early as he adjusts to the pros and tries to limit mistakes but he can win playing solid, sensible football. Like Dak did last year. He isn't going to be asked to chuck it 35 times a game. Mahomes was the guy who couldn't start early.... and he now doesn't have to. He has a year to watch, study, learn and tidy up some footwork issues. Alex Smith has this job for 2017 and then I imagine they compete in camp in 2018 which is the final year of Smith's contract. I suspect Mahomes takes over mid 2018 so long as he develops. Absolutely perfect spot for him.

 

Player I was down on....

I wouldn't say I was down on Jonathan Allen but I was not surprised he slid. A bit of a medical concern on the shoulder coupled with he just doesn't "pop" on tape. He is a solid football player, for sure, does a lot of things pretty well.... but when trying to work out where he excels it is harder. I think he is a 10 year plug and play starter, very consistent and will make a couple of pro-bowls... but I don't see him as having a shot to be a dominant NFL player and that is why he slid. The Redskins took advantage and they have a good football player at a very good price. The other one was OJ Howard. People just got way too high on him. He is too much of a projection for me I just don't see the production I'd want in college to consider a guy a top 10 pick. Top 20 pick? Sure. A nice fit in Tampa? Yes, sir. But when he was being talked of as a potential top 5 pick I always believed that to be a bit crazy.

 

Biggest shock of the night

Lattimore and Hooker sliding out of the top 10 was more of a shock to me than the slides of the two above. They were both phenomenal value for the teams that drafted them. Lattimore is the best corner that New Orleans has had in over a decade. He will be a star in this league. Other minor surprises were Evan Engram going before David Njoku and Garett Bolles being the first offensive lineman off the board. I think Bolles is a good player and I ended up with a high 2nd round grade on him but I expected Ramzyck, Robinson or Lamp to be first to go. That Lamp is still available is another surprise. He was the only genuine 1st round grade I give to an offensive lineman this year.

 

Worst pick

I actually don't think anyone made a WTF pick this year. I think the Browns taking Peppers at #25 when they have so many other needs was a surprise and I still consider that a reach as I do Adoree Jackson at #18 to the Titans but even in both of those cases I can see a logic of sorts to it. The Seahawks sliding out of the first with such a need on their offensive line and guys around that spot who could help would have come in for more criticism, even with the picks they acquired, if it wasn't for the fact that only Ramzcyk went in the 7 picks after their first trade down and they are guaranteed to have either Lamp or Robinson (and probably both) sitting there for them at #34.

 

What's left?

Malick McDowell is the best player left on my board (excluding poor old Sidney Jones). After him Zach Cunningham was another I had a 1st round grade on as was Lamp, Budda Baker and Dalvin Cook. There are a few possible fits for the Bills at #44 on left. My top 10 remaining:

 

1. Malick McDowell - DE/DT

2. Zach Cunningham - LB

3. Forrest Lamp - G/T

4. Budda Baker - S

5. Dalvin Cook - RB

6. Quincy Wilson - CB

7. Caleb Brantley - DT

8. Tim Williams - OLB

9. Cam Robinson - T

10. Teez Tabor - CB

 

Just after that 10 is where I get to a clutch of receivers with 2nd round grades and DeShone Kizer (not that I suspect they got the QB route).

 

 

ENJOY DAY 2

[jeffismagic]

 

 

What's left?

Malick McDowell is the best player left on my board (excluding poor old Sidney Jones). After him Zach Cunningham was another I had a 1st round grade on as was Lamp, Budda Baker and Dalvin Cook. There are a few possible fits for the Bills at #44 on left. My top 10 remaining:

 

1. Malick McDowell - DE/DT

2. Zach Cunningham - LB

3. Forrest Lamp - G/T

4. Budda Baker - S

5. Dalvin Cook - RB

6. Quincy Wilson - CB

7. Caleb Brantley - DT

8. Tim Williams - OLB

9. Cam Robinson - T

10. Teez Tabor - CB

 

Just after that 10 is where I get to a clutch of receivers with 2nd round grades and DeShone Kizer (not that I suspect they got the QB route).

 

 

ENJOY DAY 2

 

Great read and thanks for the effort. I like Tim Williams, EDGE for tonight. Bills need to get heat on QB's.

Edited April 28, 2017 by jeffismagic

[WideRightRevenge]

Gunner ... greatly appreciate reading your posts ... just curious of the remaining top 10 ... and looking in terms of "need" maybe vs. Best Player Available (i.e. - RB/Cook .. which I really like him ... but with Shady .. not sure about looking in other areas) ... do you have concerns over Zay Jones? I'm kind of biased as saw a lot of his games this year as my daughter goes to ECU .. I think he's Robert Woods and then some .. possession receiver and catches virtually everything thrown his way.

[Max Fischer]

This is a great read. Well done.

[GunnerBill]

Gunner ... greatly appreciate reading your posts ... just curious of the remaining top 10 ... and looking in terms of "need" maybe vs. Best Player Available (i.e. - RB/Cook .. which I really like him ... but with Shady .. not sure about looking in other areas) ... do you have concerns over Zay Jones? I'm kind of biased as saw a lot of his games this year as my daughter goes to ECU .. I think he's Robert Woods and then some .. possession receiver and catches virtually everything thrown his way.

Jones is my 12th best remaining. Nothing wrong with him at all, in fact I like him a lot. Suspect by the time we get to #44 he is one of the top 5 left on my board and I would be good with that pick. Isn't as physical either in his releases or in run blocking as Woods but has a bit more height and I think it a better hands catcher but he would be filling that same #2 possession guy spot that Woods vacated.

[thebandit27]

Good stuff as usual!

 

My mock was 27/32 and 6 exact matches fwiw.

 

I had a pretty solid feel for it overall.

[Chandler#81]

Gunner, you da man! Excellent post. Thanks!

[GunnerBill]

 

My mock was 27/32 and 6 exact matches fwiw.

 

I had a pretty solid feel for it overall.

 

Congrats Bandit - you nailed a really tough draft! I am gutted about the ones I have had and then changed... I also when putting the final draft together had Harris to the Dolphins at one point and then got too cute with my "they took Tunsil they could take Foster" rationale.

[CEN-CAL17]

 

Great read and thanks for the effort. I like Tim Williams, EDGE for tonight. Bills need to get heat on QB's.

Question is.... Tim Williams has had drug test failures and a gun incident last year.

 

Could we trade back 5-10 spots and still get him and get another 3rd???? I think if William can play at 250-255 lbs he would be a solid rotational guy as a Rookie behind Shaq and Hughes.

 

Imagine CB White, OLB/DE Tim Williams and three 3rd round picks!!!

[jeffismagic]

Question is.... Tim Williams has had drug test failures and a gun incident last year.

 

Could we trade back 5-10 spots and still get him and get another 3rd???? I think if William can play at 250-255 lbs he would be a solid rotational guy as a Rookie behind Shaq and Hughes.

 

Imagine CB White, OLB/DE Tim Williams and three 3rd round picks!!!

 

I don't know exactly where his value is but elite pass rush guys come off the board quick. I'll take Williams or Godwin with next pick.

[YoloinOhio]

Still not sure what was worse: Bears trading 4 picks to move up 1 spot. Or Browns trading back for Peppers (not taking Watson/Hooker at 12).

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Good stuff thanks Gunner. You said it all along about the quarterbacks, for many months, and the NFL does agree.

[Big C]

Still not sure what was worse: Bears trading 4 picks to move up 1 spot. Or Browns trading back for Peppers (not taking Watson/Hooker at 12).

 

Very curious to see what the Brownies do at QB. They gonna wait until next year to draft one? Sign Cutler or Kap? Draft a mid-round guy?

 

But I think what the Bears did was worse.

[eball]

nice writeup...thanks

[IgotBILLStopay]

Very nice writeup (though I was not in favor of drafting a QB). Time will tell whether Watson and Mahomes were worth the price.

 

My reaction to the draft was a little mixed (I posted this in another thread which appears to be closed) -

I am happy the Bills traded down. I am happy we got a first rounder next year. I am happy we drafted a day 1 starter in a position of need. I am happy we got value by trading down since White + 3rd + 2018 first > Hooker or Lattimore but ....

a. Hearing the Chiefs Coach and GM rave about Mahomes - I feel we could have gotten more - at least 2nd this year given KC's picks are late round picks

b. White is a decent selection but Foster was there for the taking - This guy was definite top 20 talent

c. Seahawks did two trades at the end of the round - why couldnt the Bills do those trades? Especially the one with the Hawks. Seahawks werent taking McKinley, neither were we - so the real threat for the Hawks was Dallas at 28. I would have been so happy with swapping 27 for 31 and 95 and we coulda still had White. Dougie dropped the ball here a bit.

That said the main goal was to drop down and acquire value and we did that. Some guys called it the best trade of the night:

http://www.footballp...the-2017-draft/

"Bills trade: 10th overall

Chiefs trade: 27th overall, 91st overall, 2018 1st

The Chiefs moved up 17 spots to draft Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs could use a quarterback of the future, of course — after all, it’s now been 30 years since Kansas City won a game with a quarterback drafted by the team. But if you value that 2018 1st round as equal to say, the 24th overall selection, that means the Bills received a whopping 170 cents on the dollar on the FP draft value chart. Even on the traditional chart, it’s still a great trade: Buffalo gets 120 cents on the dollar. And the Chiefs 2018 1st round pick could obviously be better than 24, too.

This was a great trade for the Bills, who were on the opposite end of this sort of move 13 years ago. In 2004, Buffalo traded 43, 144, and a 2005 1st to move up from 43 to 22 to draft J.P. Losman. Now, the Bills move down 17 spots and grab a future first and a third. As for Kansas City? The only way this works, of course, is if Mahomes becomes a star. The Chiefs are using two firsts and a third on him, which means he needs to be more than just average."

About the pick:

White was nicknamed "SteadyEddie" by some writers. Does most things reasonably well - quick feet and quick reaction being the best traits (you cant teach those). He is a team leader and was probably the most professional guy on the LSU team. However, having watched him live several times, he does have a couple of weaknesses - That Texas Tech wideout (who was drafted by Miami last year - forget his name) schooled him in the bowl game since he was a tad slow. He also does not jump very well and is a little small making him a technique driven CB (excellent technique, btw). He will basically easily cover a guy like Hogan, but would have trouble against bigger guys, faster guys and better jumpers (and there are are wideouts who good on these traits).

That said, over the last season he has taken to studying a lot more film and his play on the field was solid without being splashy (except for that return for a TD). He also adds value in the return game - so overall I guess - just wait and see how this turns out. After sleeping over it, I have started warming up to him (guess we all do that once the Bills select players) and there are others who grade him as great.

https://www.profootb...s-from-round-1/

"Desperately needing a cornerback, the Bills banked on the depth of the class by bypassing the chance at the draft’s best in Lattimore at pick No. 10 and trading back 17 spots with the Chiefs. The strategy worked to perfection, as they were able to accumulate an extra third-round pick for tomorrow and Kansas City’s 2018 first-round pick, and still lock in one of our favorite corners in the class. After giving up six touchdowns and a QB rating-against of 114.4 in 2015, White was outstanding in 2016. He cut his touchdowns-against total in half, and tallied 14 pass breakups while lowering his QB rating-against to 61.0. He is capable of playing outside or in the slot, and should be a solid replacement for Stephon Gilmore, who signed with the Patriots in free agency."

Onward to rounds 2 and 3!

Edited April 28, 2017 by IgotBILLStopay

[billsredneck1]

Well what about that then? One of the more dramatic first rounds in recent years - especially in the first half of the first round. A lot to get through so here goes....

 

The Bills Trade Back

I think you have to split the trade back from the pick. I am on record as saying if I was the GM and Deshaun Watson was there at #10 I'd have picked him and I can equally understand why the huge Mahomers on the board wanted him to be the pick. I never bought the "this is a bad Quarterback class" or "this is like 2013 all over again". It just didn't tally with what I saw when I looked at the tape. NFL teams clearly agreed as not only were 3 Quarterbacks picked in the top 12 but all 3 were picked after teams paid heavy prices to get up for them. Talking of price I thought that we could have got another late round fly pick had we really pushed it. If the Chiefs love Mahomes that much they were not going to risk losing him for the sake of their 6th round pick were they? I think you ask for that you might be able to chuck a pick at Chad Kelly possibly later on. I feel like the Bills have punted again on taking a Quarterback when there were guys that can play there and available to them. Feels like we stuck pretty much to the trade value chart when I think the selling team should always try for a little more.

 

The Bills Pick

Having said all that.... looking purely at the pick itself and the timing and value of it I like Tre'Davious White at #27. I had him and Quincy Wilson right there together on my board with 1st/2nd borderline grades based on tape and gut instinct was just that I liked White a little more. He is a realty good shadow coverage guy who seems to have a great feel for the routes receivers run and is always there right around the ball. I get that some will say why let Gilmore go then pick a corner in the 1st.... but the value was absolutely there at #27 and I expect he is our starting corner opposite Ronald Darby when we take the field against the Jets.

 

My Mock

Not the best night for the final mock in terms of exact matches... especially frustrating as three exact matches (Fournette and the Jags; Charlton and the Cowboys; and Howard and the Buccaneers have appeared in version 1 or 2 and then I changed). The final score was:

 

- 26 out of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (Up from 23 out of 31 in 2016).

- only 2 exact matches - the two obvious ones Garrett and McCafffrey (down from 5 in 2016).

- 6 other matches where I got the position right but the player wrong (Up from 5 in 2016).

 

Player I was high on....

This was probably the Quarterback class as a whole. I was not at all stunned that 3 went in the first 12 picks. As I set out above I never thought this was the bad class some on here and even a few in the media wanted you to believe it was. I actually think all 3 have ended up in spots that are pretty good fits, particularly Watson and Mahomes. Watson was the guy for me who could start early if you give him a running game and a defense - both of which Houston has. Like a Big Ben or a Russell Wilson expect him to use his legs plenty early as he adjusts to the pros and tries to limit mistakes but he can win playing solid, sensible football. Like Dak did last year. He isn't going to be asked to chuck it 35 times a game. Mahomes was the guy who couldn't start early.... and he now doesn't have to. He has a year to watch, study, learn and tidy up some footwork issues. Alex Smith has this job for 2017 and then I imagine they compete in camp in 2018 which is the final year of Smith's contract. I suspect Mahomes takes over mid 2018 so long as he develops. Absolutely perfect spot for him.

 

Player I was down on....

I wouldn't say I was down on Jonathan Allen but I was not surprised he slid. A bit of a medical concern on the shoulder coupled with he just doesn't "pop" on tape. He is a solid football player, for sure, does a lot of things pretty well.... but when trying to work out where he excels it is harder. I think he is a 10 year plug and play starter, very consistent and will make a couple of pro-bowls... but I don't see him as having a shot to be a dominant NFL player and that is why he slid. The Redskins took advantage and they have a good football player at a very good price. The other one was OJ Howard. People just got way too high on him. He is too much of a projection for me I just don't see the production I'd want in college to consider a guy a top 10 pick. Top 20 pick? Sure. A nice fit in Tampa? Yes, sir. But when he was being talked of as a potential top 5 pick I always believed that to be a bit crazy.

 

Biggest shock of the night

Lattimore and Hooker sliding out of the top 10 was more of a shock to me than the slides of the two above. They were both phenomenal value for the teams that drafted them. Lattimore is the best corner that New Orleans has had in over a decade. He will be a star in this league. Other minor surprises were Evan Engram going before David Njoku and Garett Bolles being the first offensive lineman off the board. I think Bolles is a good player and I ended up with a high 2nd round grade on him but I expected Ramzyck, Robinson or Lamp to be first to go. That Lamp is still available is another surprise. He was the only genuine 1st round grade I give to an offensive lineman this year.

 

Worst pick

I actually don't think anyone made a WTF pick this year. I think the Browns taking Peppers at #25 when they have so many other needs was a surprise and I still consider that a reach as I do Adoree Jackson at #18 to the Titans but even in both of those cases I can see a logic of sorts to it. The Seahawks sliding out of the first with such a need on their offensive line and guys around that spot who could help would have come in for more criticism, even with the picks they acquired, if it wasn't for the fact that only Ramzcyk went in the 7 picks after their first trade down and they are guaranteed to have either Lamp or Robinson (and probably both) sitting there for them at #34.

 

What's left?

Malick McDowell is the best player left on my board (excluding poor old Sidney Jones). After him Zach Cunningham was another I had a 1st round grade on as was Lamp, Budda Baker and Dalvin Cook. There are a few possible fits for the Bills at #44 on left. My top 10 remaining:

 

1. Malick McDowell - DE/DT

2. Zach Cunningham - LB

3. Forrest Lamp - G/T

4. Budda Baker - S

5. Dalvin Cook - RB

6. Quincy Wilson - CB

7. Caleb Brantley - DT

8. Tim Williams - OLB

9. Cam Robinson - T

10. Teez Tabor - CB

 

Just after that 10 is where I get to a clutch of receivers with 2nd round grades and DeShone Kizer (not that I suspect they got the QB route).

 

 

ENJOY DAY 2

out of that list...for us...i'd go with tim williams and then baker.

Edited April 28, 2017 by billsredneck1

[BuffaloHokie13]

Good stuff as usual!

 

My mock was 27/32 and 6 exact matches fwiw.

 

I had a pretty solid feel for it overall.

very similar! I was 27/32 with 5 matches (Garrett/CLE, Adams/NYJ, McCaffrey/CAR, Ross/CIN, and Taco/DAL)

[Cash]

Great post!

[VaMilBill]

Very good review. I completely agree with you on everything you said about OJ Howard. Glad we didn't take him. But I do think he will be an excellent fit in Tampa with those WRs they have a Jameis throwing to him.

 

I also agree with the Peppers pick being questionable for the Browns. Even the Njoku pick. Feel like they took risky players when the could have taken "cleaner" prospects knowing that they need starters all over their team.

[John from Riverside]

Its Budda Baker or Zay Jones for me in the 2nd