Interesting article evaluating Trubisky & Watson

[Dr. Who]

Recent history shows our supposed QB interest is more likely a smokescreen than not. I remember us loving Carson Wentz, and having dinner with Garrett Grayson, and before that it was Ryan Nassib as our potential 1st pick. Don't believe anything you hear this time of the offseason.

I was not being sarcastic. Leroi is supposedly a real insider and he says it is a smokescreen.

I don't agree with OBD's strategy, but it is what it is as they say.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Dr. Who

[Eric Moulds on my A**]

Message board proofreader is a full-time job. Watch out for Trubinsky . . .

 

Oooooh, snap.. looks like you got him by his Cahomes.

[H2o]

qb no.1 evaluation over everything else...td to int. ratio. qbs who are in the 90/10% seem to always succeed vs. 60/40%

 

thats why i'd rather go trubisky 30-6 my ratios above are a general but it's the idea and the number one indicator to me.

 

a qb who throws over 15 picks in a season in college is probably gonna be a pick machine in the pros///jmo

www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html

 

Matt Ryan had 19 picks his last year in college

Edited April 13, 2017 by H2o

[jeffismagic]

Who is Howard Cossell? Is he any relation to Howard Cosell, of MNF fame?

Yes, that's him.

[BarleyNY]

Josh Norris‏Verified account @JoshNorris 15m15 minutes ago

Josh Norris Retweeted Cian Fahey

 

"Kizer’s footwork is special. His feet are always balanced and patient but he knows when to make decisive movements."

 

 

http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/12/evaluating-quarterback-prospects-mitchell-trubisky-and-deshaun-watson/

 

A few tidbits:

 

"Yet despite the constant failures that come with being a draft analyst, there are plenty of people who will try to teach you how to scout. As if there is some formula that works perfectly.

 

Michael Lombardi is one of those people. Recently Lombardi wrote his seven rules to finding a franchise quarterback on the Ringer. The article primarily focuses on mental attributes and the aesthetics. Most of what Lombardi said sounds great until you realize it can’t actually be used to proactively identify franchise quarterbacks. It relies on catchphrases and tries to examine elements of the person rather than the player.

...

It’s hard to win in the NFL with a quarterback who wastes snaps. Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles and Alex Smith are some of the worst offenders when it comes to this. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson are too but they offset the plays they waste by creating outside of structure more often than other quarterbacks. Wilson and Taylor are great examples of players who have some very specific flaws but those flaws exist in the minority of their performances. The 90+ percent of what they do on the field outweighs the other 10 percent.

Thanks for posting. Excellent article.

[YattaOkasan]

Thanks for posting. Excellent article.

Agreed. I feel as if I saw some of this in the draft breakdown videos ("that sack is on him"), but I"m going to pay closer attention. Also I'm always surprised how few views those videos have on Youtube.

[dave mcbride]

Recent history shows our supposed QB interest is more likely a smokescreen than not. I remember us loving Carson Wentz, and having dinner with Garrett Grayson, and before that it was Ryan Nassib as our potential 1st pick. Don't believe anything you hear this time of the offseason.

 

College stats are mostly meaningless anyways. Watson ran a one-read spread offense at Clemson, had inconsistent footwork and inconsistent accuracy/ball placement. Throwing that many interceptions in a college offense is a big red flag. He relied on his athleticism which won't work as well in the NFL. IMO he is a 3rd round project at best. Which means I expect him to get taken in the 2nd.

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

[C.Biscuit97]

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

What is this based on?

[GunnerBill]

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

The Bills had allegedly been on him since the previous year's Blesto meetings but were thinking he would be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. His rise was dramatic.

[BUFFALOKIE]

Trubisky and watson?! I bet there are no other threads about these guys. Better start a new one.

[BillsFan4]

Josh Norris‏Verified account @JoshNorris 15m15 minutes ago

Josh Norris Retweeted Cian Fahey

 

"Kizer’s footwork is special. His feet are always balanced and patient but he knows when to make decisive movements."

 

 

http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/12/evaluating-quarterback-prospects-mitchell-trubisky-and-deshaun-watson/

 

A few tidbits:

 

"Yet despite the constant failures that come with being a draft analyst, there are plenty of people who will try to teach you how to scout. As if there is some formula that works perfectly.

 

Michael Lombardi is one of those people. Recently Lombardi wrote his seven rules to finding a franchise quarterback on the Ringer. The article primarily focuses on mental attributes and the aesthetics. Most of what Lombardi said sounds great until you realize it can’t actually be used to proactively identify franchise quarterbacks. It relies on catchphrases and tries to examine elements of the person rather than the player.

...

It’s hard to win in the NFL with a quarterback who wastes snaps. Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles and Alex Smith are some of the worst offenders when it comes to this. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson are too but they offset the plays they waste by creating outside of structure more often than other quarterbacks. Wilson and Taylor are great examples of players who have some very specific flaws but those flaws exist in the minority of their performances. The 90+ percent of what they do on the field outweighs the other 10 percent.

I thought that was a great article (maybe because I agree with much of it? lol). Thanks for sharing.

 

I see a lot of the same problems in Deshaun Watson that he does - the issues with his accuracy, decision making, footwork, ability to play in the pocket (among other things).

 

I'm not going to lie, I'd be pretty terrified if Whaley drafted him in the 1st, let alone the top 10. There are some things I like about Watson, but I just feel like the chances are high that he might be one of those successful college QBs who's games don't translate to success in the NFL.

[starrymessenger]

I agree with what CF has written. I think that MT is the prospect that best projects to the next level from this years class. I also think he is a top 10 pick and the first QB off the board. I think he may be gone to SF at 2 if they do not find their QB in NE or Washington, though that would probably be a bad spot for him because he may be pressured to start too early and despite his high ceiling (IMO) he is in no way ready for that. Or the Jets may pick him at six. If he is there at 10 I think the Bills may well take the plunge and if they are inclined to go QB early I hope he is the guy. I would be depressed if Watson was an early Bills pick, or indeed if he were picked at all. As for Kizer we dont need another big athletic QB who is an inaccurate passer.

MT has flaws to his game, specifically holding onto the ball too long and a startling failure to read a defence at times, leading to potentially disastrous, game changing results. This raises the main risk and concern. If these have been the issues in college there is of course the possibility that they will only get worse what with the speed and complexity of the pro game. Whoever picks him early believes or is hoping that these flaws are mostly explained by his being a one year starter and that his proven skill set will permit him to adjust eventually. Even Peyton Manning was a turnover machine his rookie year, and it took M.Ryan awhile to adjust.

Edited April 16, 2017 by starrymessenger

[Buffalo716]

Who do you think he's referring to?

Jonny manziel

[GunnerBill]

Jonny manziel

Manziel's college teammates liked him though I think.

[Buffalo716]

Manziel's college teammates liked him though I think.

He routinely showed up late and drunk to practice his sophomore year. coming out In shorts drunk to run the 2 minute drill

 

I'm sure they liked his game day efforts..

 

But not his prima dona attitude

Edited April 16, 2017 by Buffalo716

[billieve420]

The more I read about Watson the more scared I am of him. Arm strength will be an issue in Buffalo and that alone would be enough to dissuade me from picking him in the 1st. In addition to accuracy and footwork issues watching him on Gruden's QB camp let me feeling unimpressed when it came to his personality. He seems like a mild mannered soft spoken guy who doesn't scream leader to me.

 

If I was going to flame out and pick a QB I would rather risk it with Mahomes if we could trade back and accumulate more picks. He has his flaws for sure but he has some things you just can't teach.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

I am still shocked at how little respect Watson gets. The guy did thing against defenses that regularly produce first and second round talent.

I agree, the whole MPH at the combine on the ball is concerning, however there is the unmeasurable "IT" factor that Watson has.

You always want players that shine when the lights are the brightest and Watson does that in spades.

However, I have to wonder if his turnovers will carry over into the NFL.

You look at or current NFL MVP and his draft year stats. Crazy to think he was so much more regarded than Watson.

Two words, Vince Young.

[BillsFan17]

Two words, Vince Young.

And who knows what his career would have held had he not been a head case.

 

And because VY flamed out means any player that shows up in big time game automatically is linked to VY. Got ya.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

And who knows what his career would have held had he not been a head case.

And because VY flamed out means any player that shows up in big time game automatically is linked to VY. Got ya.

You read a lot into that and VY 1Both have big accuracy, arm strength and footwork questions. Both great athletes which sometimes masks their deficiencies at QB. Most importantly, the post that o replied to made the point that they were great in college against elite competition. Young was great against the best college teams, even beating the Dynasty of his time (USC) in one of the greatest college games ever. They are very similar.

[stuvian]

His writing is pretty thoughtful. In one breath he says that predicting QB success is more art than science while picking apart Watson and Mahomes footwork. He also says QBs don't change much upon becoming pro. I still remember people saying that Newton would never succeed as a pro.