Rapoport: Hints that Bills Are Likely to Keep Tyrod Taylor

[Ron Burgundy]

Good. Keep TT but keep your options for an improvement at the position open. If a guy is there, even in round 1, who you think is going to be a potential franchise player you still take him but let him get up to speed under TT (not that i think one would learn good habits from him).

 

It's a tough offseason for QB's i think in most other seasons we'd walk from him. My tone here sounds like i don't like TT but I'm in the camp that rates him slightly above average as a QB.

[Heitz]

It's more than Rex -- there were leaks during the Marrone regime -- but I agree they finally appear to have been sealed.

 

Rex and Doug share Jimmy Sexton as an agent - coincidence?

[Marty McFly]

 

Do you think teams are worried about Tyrod running with the football?

 

Correct answer: Of course they worry about it and game plan for it.

 

And that fact alone forces coordinators to alter their defenses in order to stop 2 possible runners on every running play instead of just focusing on the back.

 

With Tyrod back there the defense has to determine not just if it is a run or pass or play action, but also, if it is a run, who is going to run with the ball and if it is a pass - is the QB really going to pass or is he going to take off running with the ball. The defenders can't react as quickly as they could if there was a predictable statue QB and single running back.

 

It is quite easy to see how that helps the running game. It is that strength that causes players to vote for Tyrod for the Probowl. Players know it is a lot harder to defend that.

 

You don't think that helps the running game?

 

This

 

 

It's more than Rex -- there were leaks during the Marrone regime -- but I agree they finally appear to have been sealed.

 

Which is a great thing, by the way. I'm ok with not knowing the story until it actually breaks.

 

Agree

 

 

 

 

Laugh a lot, work more on Sundays, mock the TT fans for the 6-10 season id assume.

 

Maybe hop on the Whaley sucks train.

 

That train is getting packed might wanna make a reservation after the draft.

 

[What a Tuel]

Except of course Thurman is right.

 

On 11th March this year Tyrod's $12m salary; $15.5m signing bonus and $3.25m of his 2018 salary become fully guaranteed. That is $30.75m fully guaranteed money. You can say "oh it isn't all 2017 cap" and of course that is true... but it is money that has to count against our salary cap at some point. Then because the signing bonus fully guarantees the dead money makes cutting Tyrod after 2017 pretty much a non starter so the remainder of his 2018 salary would guarantee on the 3rd day of the 2018 league year. Now there is a just about affordable out after 2018 ($9m dead money) but if we take that out Thurman is absolutely right we will have paid Tyord $40m for two years. It will be spread out over 3 (and if we designated him as a post 1 June 2019 cut spread out over 4 years) but the fact is he will have pocketed $40m all of which will have counted agains our cap at some point... for 2 years.

 

That is the risk of signing a contract with guaranteed money though. We signed McCoy and there were the same arguments that he wouldn't get past 2 years on the team (he was approaching the "dreaded 30" at 27) so we just paid him $22 million for two years (spread out over 3).

Edited February 3, 2017 by What a Tuel

[Guffalo]

 

This

 

 

Agree

 

 

 

That train is getting packed might wanna make a reservation after the draft.

 

That train has been delayed to allow them to add more cars after the draft

[K-9]

With apologies to Ryan L, et al.

 

I just re-reviewed the Miami game and it was TT's best outing from a command standpoint and I don't think that's any small notion. From checking in and out of plays to execution, it was his best performance. I raise the point because every successful QB literally has that "aha" moment when the lights come on and the game slows down and they ascend from that point. It would be great to be hearing TT's input to the new staff during their breakdowns of his game tapes.

[moshermw]

 

Thurman#1, you are again right in a limited kind of way. It is not a fact that TT facilitated the run game. It's a theory. Just like evolution is a theory, and Newton's theory of gravity, and Einstein's theory of relativity - all of which are accepted by the overwhelming majority of scientists. Facts are things that are directly observable. Theories explain the facts.

 

The facts are the Bills led the NFL in rushing yards and YPC. The fact is that TT/Lynn combo scored 27 points per game. The theory (explanation) that lots of intelligent observers have is that the success of the Bills offense hinged partially on Tyrod's running skills.

 

You can deny this all you want. People on the fringe deny evolution, global warming, and a lot of other theories that are well supported by facts.

 

But there's no stat line that can prove - or disprove - that Tyrod facilitated the run game. And if you didn't see it with your own eyes in the way Roman designed his plays or Lynn called the plays, there's no way to convince you.

 

There's a saying in India: "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets." Likewise, when a hungry guy drives down the street, he notices all the restaurants. When a horny guy watches a movie, he notices all the hot girls. And whey a Tyrod-hater watches All-22, he notices all Tyrod's shortcomings - and none of his strengths. We tend to see what fulfills our desires and backs up our opinions.

 

Many of us here actually agree with some of your statements: TT wasn't successful with the deep ball last season, he has trouble finding open receivers, he has accuracy issues and so on. But I think we're a little more nuanced in our evaluations and see that he brought some good to the table with the bad.

 

While we all hope to eventually have a better QB under center, we can easily imagine worse. We're Bills fans, we've had worse. That's why I'm all in favor of drafting a QB if a good one is available, but keeping Tyrod until someone beats him out for the job.

B-I-N-G-O and Bingo was his name-o.

[Marty McFly]

That train has been delayed to allow them to add more cars after the draft

 

gonna be long 3 months

[Wayne Arnold]

Edelman is probably won of the best slot receivers in the game & perhaps ever. You might be able to name a few better, but not many. Woods is decent but he is the definition of average.

Seriously.

 

Edelman is a very good WR. Always open, catches everything and a pain in the ass to cover.

 

Edelman over Woods any day of the week.

We've seen similar lazy misconceptions with Stevie Johnson and CJ Spiller.........how many people thought those two would be BETTER on better teams?

 

Julian Edelman is a very good wr/fotball player.......great in the slot......good intermediate......tremendous on special teams and trick plays.......not a deep threat but otherwise excellent.

 

Hilarious. Edelman may not be in the league if it weren't for Brady. What did Welker ever do without Brady? Or any other Pats receiver over the last 16 years?

Kelsay was too small and weak to play the run. He was almost always 1 step too slow vs. the pass. He WOULD often get through but it was just a bit too late almost all of the time.

 

Refresh my memory if you will.....didn't he receive a big, ridiculous contract?

 

I honestly think Buddy Nix thought Kelsay was Schobel when he extended Kelsay's bloated contract. I wish I were kididng. But it's the only logical explanation.

[Big Gun]

 

 

The facts are the Bills led the NFL in rushing yards and YPC. The fact is that TT/Lynn combo scored 27 points per game.

 

Except they didn't.

[GunnerBill]

 

That is the risk of signing a contract with guaranteed money though. We signed McCoy and there were the same arguments that he wouldn't get past 2 years on the team (he was approaching the "dreaded 30" at 27) so we just paid him $22 million for two years (spread out over 3).

I am no Tyrod hater. I remain convinced it is a 50/50 decision and post the Dennison hire I lean toward retaining. However, Shady is elite at his position. BADOL will never agree but Shady was a safer investment.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Except they didn't.

You're right. They scored 25.9 points per game. That is factoring out the 2 games with Roman and the 1 game with EJ/Cardale, as well as all Defensive and ST touchdowns. Even if I don't remove those from any other teams that still makes us the 8th best scoring offense in the league. 0.1 PPG behind Oakland and 0.2 PPG ahead of Indianapolis.

[BADOLBILZ]

Except of course Thurman is right.

 

On 11th March this year Tyrod's $12m salary; $15.5m signing bonus and $3.25m of his 2018 salary become fully guaranteed. That is $30.75m fully guaranteed money. You can say "oh it isn't all 2017 cap" and of course that is true... but it is money that has to count against our salary cap at some point. Then because the signing bonus fully guarantees the dead money makes cutting Tyrod after 2017 pretty much a non starter so the remainder of his 2018 salary would guarantee on the 3rd day of the 2018 league year. Now there is a just about affordable out after 2018 ($9m dead money) but if we take that out Thurman is absolutely right we will have paid Tyord $40m for two years. It will be spread out over 3 (and if we designated him as a post 1 June 2019 cut spread out over 4 years) but the fact is he will have pocketed $40m all of which will have counted agains our cap at some point... for 2 years.

 

 

 

Production at the quarterback position doesn't often come cheap.

 

Try looking at the 4 year total that would have been paid to Taylor at the end of 2018 and then remember that it didn't cost a first round pick.....or ANYTHING........ to acquire Tyrod Taylor and then tell me how awful the deal looks.

 

And like I have said before........these numbers aren't talked about in the context of the cap.........which may increase $45M between the time he signed the extension and after that 2018 season.

 

The Bills ate $10M in dead money cutting RYAN FITZPATRICK.........and that was 4 years ago........that would be like a $15M+ dead cap hit now.

[GunnerBill]

Production at the quarterback position doesn't often come cheap.

 

Try looking at the 4 year total that would have been paid to Taylor at the end of 2018 and then remember that it didn't cost a first round pick.....or ANYTHING........ to acquire Tyrod Taylor and then tell me how awful the deal looks.

 

And like I have said before........these numbers aren't talked about in the context of the cap.........which may increase $45M between the time he signed the extension and after that 2018 season.

 

The Bills ate $10M in dead money cutting RYAN FITZPATRICK.........and that was 4 years ago........that would be like a $15M+ dead cap hit now.

But we have already had the two cheap years BADOL we now have a window to get out.

 

I didn't like the Fitz deal and I don't like this one. It is tying ourselves to very good money for a QB I don't think we have a chance of winning it all with..if you think we have that chance you make this deal every time. I remain on the fence. I am not going to hammer the Bills if they keep him but I am not going to pretend I love it either. It has always been a 51/49 deal for me.

[BADOLBILZ]

I am no Tyrod hater. I remain convinced it is a 50/50 decision and post the Dennison hire I lean toward retaining. However, Shady is elite at his position. BADOL will never agree but Shady was a safer investment.

 

Yeah I won't agree about Shady.

 

RB production is almost BY NATURE cheap and easy to get at this point in the history of the NFL.

 

The game impact of a productive QB is at least 5X that of even an "elite"( ) RB so having a $10M RB is perhaps the very definition of a luxury move in NFL roster building.

 

On the money end.....McCoy was a fail in 2015 and the Bills got production in 2016 commensurate with annual expectations(and with his back up who cost approximately .833 cents, if you get my drift ).

 

But the biggest problem with the "investment" is that HIS ORIGINAL CONTRACT RAN THRU 2017.

Edited February 3, 2017 by #BADOL

[John from Riverside]

But we have already had the two cheap years BADOL we now have a window to get out.

 

I didn't like the Fitz deal and I don't like this one. It is tying ourselves to very good money for a QB I don't think we have a chance of winning it all with..if you think we have that chance you make this deal every time. I remain on the fence. I am not going to hammer the Bills if they keep him but I am not going to pretend I love it either. It has always been a 51/49 deal for me.

it has to be weighed against the alternatives

 

there are other teams that will gladly take him

[BADOLBILZ]

But we have already had the two cheap years BADOL we now have a window to get out.

 

I didn't like the Fitz deal and I don't like this one. It is tying ourselves to very good money for a QB I don't think we have a chance of winning it all with..if you think we have that chance you make this deal every time. I remain on the fence. I am not going to hammer the Bills if they keep him but I am not going to pretend I love it either. It has always been a 51/49 deal for me.

 

 

You also have a chance to get out cheap and go back to awful QB production and then make need based decisions trying to find a new QB.

 

The problem with a Bills GM and needs on draft day...........is that it becomes a "loaded gun" situation.....to use the phrasing from Something About Mary.

 

When that GM needs it.......he makes bad decisions.

 

As I've said many times.......when the Bills don't EVEN HAVE a first round pick.......resigned to not being able to systematically plug each roster breach........they tend to draft MUCH BETTER with their second round pick(Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart, Ronald Darby).

 

So keep a good QB even if it means spending a whopping $5m-$7M more per year than you think he's worth and use that time to make more clear-headed assessments of prospects in the next few seasons.

Edited February 3, 2017 by #BADOL

[Maury Ballstein]

it has to be weighed against the alternatives

 

there are other teams that will gladly take him

Good. Put him on the clearance rack and get his flawed game outta dodge. Let them benefit with a .500ish season.

[3rdand12]

Good. Put him on the clearance rack and get his flawed game outta dodge. Let them benefit with a .500ish season.

Some miss the point. Bills cannot DRAFT a QB worth a darn. never have.

much less develop one.Hell we let Ravens develop this one under an elite QB in Flacco. Smartest and most introspective move Bills have made in decades.

 

You Fans ! Geesh!

pay the kid

Edited February 3, 2017 by 3rdand12

[FireChan]

it has to be weighed against the alternatives

 

there are other teams that will gladly take him

Good for them?

 

 

 

You also have a chance to get out cheap and go back to awful QB production and then make need based decisions trying to find a new QB.

 

The problem with a Bills GM and needs on draft day...........is that it becomes a "loaded gun" situation.....to use the phrasing from Something About Mary.

 

When that GM needs it.......he makes bad decisions.

 

As I've said many times.......when the Bills don't EVEN HAVE a first round pick.......resigned to not being able to systematically plug each roster breach........they tend to draft MUCH BETTER with their second round pick(Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart, Ronald Darby).

 

So keep a good QB even if it means spending a whopping $5m-$7M more per year than you think he's worth and use that time to make more clear-headed assessments of prospects in the next few seasons.

This team will never adequately address the QB situation unless we have zero on the roster, which means TT has to go. Dougie is trying to get back to 9-7 and an early playoff exit to keep his job. Long-term planning is not his forte.