TPS Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 (edited) Essentially what I've predicted.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/u-s-recession-may-come-just-in-time-for-trump-s-reelection-bid Just to show it's not a politically motivated prediction, it's economics. Edited March 27, 2018 by TPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 11 hours ago, TPS said: Essentially what I've predicted.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/u-s-recession-may-come-just-in-time-for-trump-s-reelection-bid Just to show it's not a politically motivated prediction, it's economics. Economists are !@#$s and anyone banking on them right now to be correct about 2020 with the interjection of the 2020 presidential election is just blowing smoke. Bloomberg and all of these reports are just throwing mud at the wall. In a week or 2 they'll post an exact opposite viewpoint. Not only that, it's purposely shaping the markets in an unethical manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 Despite the corporate propaganda by a handful of firms saying they are passing along some "combs" to workers, this is the real impact of the tax cuts.... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/03/25/why-its-raining-share-buybacks-on-wall-street/#459001713346 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, TPS said: Despite the corporate propaganda by a handful of firms saying they are passing along some "combs" to workers, this is the real impact of the tax cuts.... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/03/25/why-its-raining-share-buybacks-on-wall-street/#459001713346 I don't see the folly in companies buying back their own stock. Private companies go public, public companies at times buy back their own stock and sometimes public companies (like Dell) buy out shareholders and go private. Private companies buy and sell stock (to and from other private investors) all the time. Seems to me that all of this is fine a long as they play by the rules. Companies should make their own decisions on what they do with their profits. If they are stingy to workers then those workers will leave for greener pastures. We are seeing the labor force tighten now and wages are beginning to rise which is a good thing and It'll probably take another calendar year before we see the impact of the corporate tax cuts. As I talk to people who work in a variety of businesses and those that work for public companies or very large private companies, I'm hearing pretty much across the board that the employers are doing something for their workers. Companies that aren't struggling that is. Even our tiny company at the end of last year paid out some bonuses to everyone. Edited March 27, 2018 by keepthefaith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 2 hours ago, keepthefaith said: I don't see the folly in companies buying back their own stock. Private companies go public, public companies at times buy back their own stock and sometimes public companies (like Dell) buy out shareholders and go private. Private companies buy and sell stock (to and from other private investors) all the time. Seems to me that all of this is fine a long as they play by the rules. Companies should make their own decisions on what they do with their profits. If they are stingy to workers then those workers will leave for greener pastures. We are seeing the labor force tighten now and wages are beginning to rise which is a good thing and It'll probably take another calendar year before we see the impact of the corporate tax cuts. As I talk to people who work in a variety of businesses and those that work for public companies or very large private companies, I'm hearing pretty much across the board that the employers are doing something for their workers. Companies that aren't struggling that is. Even our tiny company at the end of last year paid out some bonuses to everyone. Read some of the related pieces on how this general trend is affecting the broader economy. Here's one another of his with more detail: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2014/08/18/hbr-how-ceos-became-takers-not-makers/#45b910ea9509 and, note, the articles come from business periodicals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 27, 2018 Author Share Posted March 27, 2018 3 hours ago, TPS said: Despite the corporate propaganda by a handful of firms saying they are passing along some "combs" to workers, this is the real impact of the tax cuts.... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/03/25/why-its-raining-share-buybacks-on-wall-street/#459001713346 There is a lot of stupid in that piece. Since when is mathematics the same as stock manipulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, TPS said: Read some of the related pieces on how this general trend is affecting the broader economy. Here's one another of his with more detail: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2014/08/18/hbr-how-ceos-became-takers-not-makers/#45b910ea9509 and, note, the articles come from business periodicals. Shocker. Steve Denning supports Steve Denning's opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 3 hours ago, DC Tom said: Shocker. Steve Denning supports Steve Denning's opinion. It takes a few clicks to get from his pieces to the Lazonick article, and of course he's writing about a topic that fits his arguments, but there is a lot of research on how the shift toward stock compensation of CEOs has caused corporations to focus on short term stock prices over long term competitiveness. Historically, buybacks were done when shares were viewed as undervalued; now they're often done to hit quarterly price targets. This really is an Important argument behind the impact of the tax cuts. GG believes they will lead to faster growth in the long run by stimulating increased real investment. I tend to doubt that outcome, especially if the majority of the benefits are simply going to recirculate to the top of the wealth stream in the form of buybacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 Uncle Sam needs to borrow a ton of money this week — in the middle of a fight with its biggest creditor. The United States plans to sell about $294 billion of debt, according to the Treasury Department. That's the highest for a week since the record set during the 2008 financial crisis. Federal revenue is declining because of President Trump's tax cuts, so the government needs to borrow more to make ends meet. At the same time, Washington's borrowing costs have climbed rapidly in recent months. "The amount of debt coming on the market this week is extremely large," said Rick Rieder, global chief investment officer of fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/27/investing/us-debt-sale-record-treasury/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 On 3/26/2018 at 3:22 PM, B-Man said: ................I think it's due to The "March"............ Now it's down 344 yesterday. WTF is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 3 hours ago, ALF said: Uncle Sam needs to borrow a ton of money this week — in the middle of a fight with its biggest creditor. The United States plans to sell about $294 billion of debt, according to the Treasury Department. That's the highest for a week since the record set during the 2008 financial crisis. Federal revenue is declining because of President Trump's tax cuts, so the government needs to borrow more to make ends meet. At the same time, Washington's borrowing costs have climbed rapidly in recent months. "The amount of debt coming on the market this week is extremely large," said Rick Rieder, global chief investment officer of fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/27/investing/us-debt-sale-record-treasury/index.html The treasury auction always clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 On 3/26/2018 at 8:45 PM, TPS said: Essentially what I've predicted.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/u-s-recession-may-come-just-in-time-for-trump-s-reelection-bid Just to show it's not a politically motivated prediction, it's economics. The 10 year treasury constant maturity minus the 2 year treasury constant maturity is definitely flattening and heading for inversion. But it looks like that would happen late in the 4th quarter or Q1 2019. For the past 40 or so years that event has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Federal Reserve Bank Data 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Now it's down 344 yesterday. WTF is going on? It’s going sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 16 hours ago, TPS said: Read some of the related pieces on how this general trend is affecting the broader economy. Here's one another of his with more detail: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2014/08/18/hbr-how-ceos-became-takers-not-makers/#45b910ea9509 and, note, the articles come from business periodicals. Help me understand this better. I get that the buy backs pump up management's pay. They own stock in the company and get paid with stocks. But doesn't the money just come right back to the company from the selling of the stock? The company is buying from themselves, right? So wouldn't the money still be available to the company for research and development and buying new equipment? And, since they are paying themselves for the stocks, can they just turn around and buy even more stocks with the same money?? That could and should be considered manipulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Tiberius said: Help me understand this better. I get that the buy backs pump up management's pay. They own stock in the company and get paid with stocks. But doesn't the money just come right back to the company from the selling of the stock? The company is buying from themselves, right? So wouldn't the money still be available to the company for research and development and buying new equipment? And, since they are paying themselves for the stocks, can they just turn around and buy even more stocks with the same money?? That could and should be considered manipulation. No, they are using earnings and/or accumulated cash to buy shares in the markets; so whoever sold the shares is receiving $. It used to be an end around way to pay shareholders a "dividend" when there was a tax differential on cap gains and dividends, but that's no longer the case. It also used to be the case that corporate treasurers would buy stocks when they were perceived to be below intrinsic value and sell new shares when they were seen to be above value. Now managers buy to push prices higher in order to hit price targets that trigger stock compensation incentives. It's more about using earnings to hit short term stock price goals as opposed to investing in real capital to improve long term competitiveness. This is what the articles are about, and what many are now criticizing. 2 hours ago, Nanker said: The 10 year treasury constant maturity minus the 2 year treasury constant maturity is definitely flattening and heading for inversion. But it looks like that would happen late in the 4th quarter or Q1 2019. For the past 40 or so years that event has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Federal Reserve Bank Data Yes, the yield curve inverts when the Fed tightens short rates, and that's the spark for the recession. Edited March 28, 2018 by TPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Nanker said: The 10 year treasury constant maturity minus the 2 year treasury constant maturity is definitely flattening and heading for inversion. But it looks like that would happen late in the 4th quarter or Q1 2019. For the past 40 or so years that event has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Federal Reserve Bank Data It’s going sideways. Budgets and alleged plans of action are voted in an they do their best to implement them. But we are human after all and NOTHING (repeat NOTHING!!!) works in reality as it should. So people make bold predictions and they never are right, but they just make up an excuse and make the next one bold prediction and never admit it. It is one of the greatest pleasures in my life in destroying these people in court and settlements. The greatest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 28, 2018 Author Share Posted March 28, 2018 3 hours ago, TPS said: No, they are using earnings and/or accumulated cash to buy shares in the markets; so whoever sold the shares is receiving $. It used to be an end around way to pay shareholders a "dividend" when there was a tax differential on cap gains and dividends, but that's no longer the case. It also used to be the case that corporate treasurers would buy stocks when they were perceived to be below intrinsic value and sell new shares when they were seen to be above value. Now managers buy to push prices higher in order to hit price targets that trigger stock compensation incentives. It's more about using earnings to hit short term stock price goals as opposed to investing in real capital to improve long term competitiveness. This is what the articles are about, and what many are now criticizing. Yes, the yield curve inverts when the Fed tightens short rates, and that's the spark for the recession. The biggest problem with the "analysis" is the presumption that buybacks starve capex and R&D investment, while ignoring the reality that internal investments are at all time highs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 49 minutes ago, GG said: The biggest problem with the "analysis" is the presumption that buybacks starve capex and R&D investment, while ignoring the reality that internal investments are at all time highs too Care to provide a link to support that last statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 28, 2018 Author Share Posted March 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, TPS said: Care to provide a link to support that last statement? I would if I could. You'll just have to trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, GG said: I would if I could. You'll just have to trust me. As long as you’re not Russian or associate with them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 28, 2018 Author Share Posted March 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, TPS said: As long as you’re not Russian or associate with them... That chapter closed a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts