The Trump Economy

[BillStime]

You QTips ditch the Goodyear’s yet?

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Labor reported for the week ending Aug. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped to 1,106,000, an increase of 135,000 from the previous week.
The four-week moving average, however, fell to 1,175,750, a decrease of 79,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent for the week ending August 8, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
 

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment—also known as continuing claims—for the week ending August 8 fell to 14,844,000, a decrease of 636,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average fell to 15,841,250, a decrease of 326,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
 

</snip>

July numbers:

Massachusetts had the highest rate, followed by NYS. States that still had lock down requirements generally had poor July unemployment numbers (shocking, I know!) 
Utah had the lowest rate at 4%.
Listing from the Bureau of Labor.

 

[B-Man]

1 hour ago, BillStime said:

 

You QTips ditch the Goodyear’s yet?

 

 

 

Yeah, standing up for what is right, really hurt Trump .........?

 

Goodyear president affirms company's support for police, says employees can wear pro-police clothing

by Alex Nitzberg

 

Original Article

 

 

Goodyear Chairman, CEO and President Rich Kramer on Thursday released a statement following public uproar over a slide shown at a Topeka, Kansas plant that suggested pro-police apparel should be banned. The slide categorized "Blue Lives Matter," "All Lives Matter," "MAGA Attire" and "Political Affiliated Slogans or Material" as "unacceptable" but described "Black Lives Matter" and "Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual Transgender Pride" as "acceptable." 

 

 

 

[BillStime]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Yeah, standing up for what is right, really hurt Trump .........?

 

Goodyear president affirms company's support for police, says employees can wear pro-police clothing

by Alex Nitzberg

 

Original Article

 

 

Goodyear Chairman, CEO and President Rich Kramer on Thursday released a statement following public uproar over a slide shown at a Topeka, Kansas plant that suggested pro-police apparel should be banned. The slide categorized "Blue Lives Matter," "All Lives Matter," "MAGA Attire" and "Political Affiliated Slogans or Material" as "unacceptable" but described "Black Lives Matter" and "Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual Transgender Pride" as "acceptable." 

 

 

 

 

But but but Trump is calling for a boycott of this iconic AMERICAN Company?  WTF Is that all about?

[B-Man]

10 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

But but but Trump is calling for a boycott of this iconic AMERICAN Company? 

 

WTF Is that all about?

?

 

Today is Friday..................not Tuesday..................try and keep up.

 

 

 

Goodyear hands a political triumph to Trump

by Thomas Lifson

 

Original Article

 

In terms of the reality TV show of the presidential campaign, Goodyear has caved-in to Donald Trump’s pressure and affirmed its support for law enforcement, handing a potent symbolic victory to his reelection effort. The now-notorious Topeka “zero tolerance” slide framed a simple tale of PC bullies taking over a corporation and terrorizing the employees into verbal conformity, silently hewing to the party line with all the enthusiasm of a 1986 East German. Donald Trump, the champion of the liberty of the ordinary American, fought back

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillStime]

1 minute ago, B-Man said:

?

 

Today is Friday..................not Tuesday..................try and keep up.

 

 

 

Goodyear hands a political triumph to Trump

by Thomas Lifson

 

Original Article

 

In terms of the reality TV show of the presidential campaign, Goodyear has caved-in to Donald Trump’s pressure and affirmed its support for law enforcement, handing a potent symbolic victory to his reelection effort. The now-notorious Topeka “zero tolerance” slide framed a simple tale of PC bullies taking over a corporation and terrorizing the employees into verbal conformity, silently hewing to the party line with all the enthusiasm of a 1986 East German. Donald Trump, the champion of the liberty of the ordinary American, fought back

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't have to - TRUMP TOLD AMERICANS TO BOYCOTT AN AMERICAN COMPANY - AMERICA FIRST MY A$$

 

You are in a QULT bro - so sad - and Putin LOVES you.

[BillStime]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The Trump economy is based on a strong Obama economy.  

 

Job creation under Obama was growing (just not at the pace the markets wanted to see)  

Obama's Job creation was / is better than The Donald's Job creation #'s  

 

Obama's Last Three Years Of Job Growth All Beat Trump's ...

 

www.forbes.com › sites › chuckjones › 2020/02/07 › o...

 

Feb 7, 2020 - The previous and updated job growth yearly totals for Obama's last six years in office after the Great Recession and Trump's first three years, ...

and that was before Covid.  So please, no straw-man arguments 

[3rdnlng]

Economic figures can be manipulated but the true indication of how the economy is producing is wage growth, which is determined by the availability of jobs. All of the rest that you ninnies claim is nothing but fluff. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

@Buffalo_Gal. Why are you confused?
 

do some research and it is clear for all to see 

 

Obama had a strong economy — Fact

 

FTR

the Stock Market is not the economy 

[SectionC3]

15 hours ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Just wait until these losers realize that if you assess the market without viewing the companies they love to hate (e.g., Amazon, Microsoft, Google), it’s a pretty ugly picture. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

@Buffalo_Gal. Why are you confused?
 

do some research and it is clear for all to see 

 

Obama had a strong economy — Fact

 

FTR

the Stock Market is not the economy 

? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?
? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?
? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?
? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?   ? ?  ? ?  ? ?

You are a funny guy. Delusional, but funny.

 

[B-Man]

"The past (Obama) administration was the first administration that never had a whole year of 3 percent growth."

 

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

"The past (Obama) administration was the first administration that never had a whole year of 3 percent growth."

 

 

There are people being thrown out of their homes, starvation lurks and the GOP, Trump and the ghost of Herbert Hoover all fiddle while the economy burns. Shameless 

[B-Man]

5 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Shameless

 

slim shady makes a false statement 

 

I refute it. 
 

Tibsy gets triggered by the truth 

 

?

 

 

[3rdnlng]

20 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

slim shady makes a false statement 

 

I refute it. 
 

Tibsy gets triggered by the truth 

 

?

 

 

I don't think I've ever seen anyone as dumb as Gleeful Gator. Maybe just nobody dumber. Anyway, Trump uses an E.O. to try to keep the rank and file from being hurt too bad while Leader Nancy tries to create a crises calling the House back in session on a Saturday to vote on a ridiculous bill that has no basis for what she is claiming. The Post Office is not running out of money. They are funded through August of 2021 and have another 10 billion available to them. Saying that they need 25 billion in order to handle mail-in or absentee ballots this year for the election is complete made up horseshit by Pelosi. Never let a crises Create a crisis to get what you want. In the meantime Nancy refuses to work on the real problems of helping our country back to prosperity. 

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 8/7/2020 at 10:56 AM, GG said:

There's a lot to unpack here.

 

Hi GG, I will attempt to address every point you touched upon in your post, minus the Obamanomics stuff because I’m not particularly motivated to defend neoliberalism. But I promise to eventually look over the earliest pages of this thread, as you suggested, on the Obama versus Trump economic policy debate. My focus today is on the current recession, with a little bit of economic philosophy mixed in and hopefully also a more in-depth segue into the federal unemployment benefit extension (FUBE) confusion. I’m already at the estimated daily caffeine limit (300 mg) for my body weight (110 lb), so LET’S DO THIS. Wooooooooo!!!

 

1. General criticisms of economic libertarianism:

 

1-A. Government stimulation of economy: I agree that government should stay out of the private market’s way in most instances, but to think that the government has no role in directly stimulating production and quickly creating jobs would be absurd and dangerous. This narrative runs contrary to all the excellent historical evidence we’ve seen since WW2, for example, of governments initially pulling economies out of recessions as private markets flounder. In fact, let’s go all the way back to 1790 to include all 47 estimated recessions in US history. The best data we can gather on them shows an obvious reduction in the severity and duration of recessions as our country has moved further away from its laissez faire capitalistic roots.

 

1-B. Government regulations: We risk speaking over and around each other here because of overgeneralizations. But without listing and explicating every regulation imaginable in painful detail, I’ll say that many of them are frivolous, some useful, and some essential despite whatever limitations they may place on short-term economic growth. Regarding the latter, I’m moving to the clear political left of Trump on many regulations that have to do with finance/banking, real estate, workers’ collective bargaining, monopolies/mergers, environment, and energy. One example of a regulation I like but libertarians hate is Glass-Steagall, whose absence perfectly captured the economic milieu that led to the Great Recession…sigh…

 

1-C. Random libertarian pet peeves of mine: A big one is how they consistently and willfully confuse short-term speculation-based economies with long-term investment-based ones. Many of them tend to approach all forms of investing like cocaine-addicted Gordon Gekko-style day traders, hating on any attempts to curb investment risk that putatively slows capital gains…with the resulting market instability from investors’ collective psychological rollercoasters of trust/distrust leading to long-term sub-optimal economic growth. Libertarians also frustrate me with their blind spots for the role of consumer spending in generating macroeconomic growth, for the negative effects that wealth concentration at the top have on society’s institutions of power, and for the hypocrisy in loving both privatized profits and socialized losses at the top echelons of business. Oh yeah, and many often insist that government programs never work…as they elect unqualified politicians that do everything they can to undermine and sabotage said government programs. Oh yeah, and some libertarians keep confusing marginal tax rates with effective tax rates whenever the progressive tax code fearmongering routine goes on repeat… Very frustrating. Ugh.

 

2. Miscellaneous issues related to the current economic crisis:

 

2-A. Opening up the economy: When I say fully opening up the economy ASAP isn’t a “panacea,” I’m using the “cure-all” definition of the word and not a “cure-some” one. Even if social distancing measures were to somehow be fully relaxed in all service industries, consumer behavior is not going to return to normal any time soon. Anyone thinking otherwise is delusional (IMHO) and not paying attention to the health component, the job losses, the housing crisis, the food insecurity crisis, and the general economic anxiety for a large majority of Americans who were living paycheck to paycheck BEFORE the coronavirus began. Continued government stimulus is needed for both American consumers and for the small businesses to keep everything afloat for at least a few months longer. Companies that survive will undoubtedly restructure operations as a result of the pandemic, which will be to the detriment of workers and will further hinder economic recovery. So expect more political calls for government intervention beyond the fall season, too, in the form of living wages (yes!) and permanent UBI’s (meh.).

 

2-B. The health factor: To be fair, we can’t say for sure that blue states are playing a deliberate game of economic chicken and focused only on defeating Trump. Much of the reticence to fully open businesses and schools may very well have to do with genuine health concerns. The political right tends to downplay the health aspect to an extent that is out of proportion with the overall population, where something like two-thirds of polled Americans are still very worried about catching Covid-19, three-fourths support mandatory mask-wearing, and a majority are angry at the government’s handling of the pandemic and believe it’s only going to get worse this fall.

 

2-C. Cuomo and de Blasio: Both have performed abysmally at their jobs and should not seek reelection. Even before their blunders with the pandemic health emergency and the police protests, we had serious issues with NYS and NYC budgetary mismanagement. The two have taken polar opposite positions on the financial crisis. While Cuomo has met regularly with the wealthy NYC elite to reassure them that their taxes won’t be raised, de Blasio has emphasized the 22 thousand NYC public employees that will have to be laid off this fall. My compromise solution during a pandemic would be tough mutual sacrifices on all sides: partial federal bailout with conditions, state/city budget streamlining, and slight tax raises on the rich. But this is America…so expect the federal government and the wealthy elite taxpayers to completely win this argument. Massive public layoffs and cuts to public services will ensue, further tanking the precarious local economy…and national economy too, since NYC is kind of a big deal. I’m sure MMT purists are arguing that the smartest solution would be a 100% federal government bailout, on account of our nation’s monetary sovereignty.

 

2-D. The departing NYC coffers: No surprise whatsoever that the wealthy NYC elite can’t be bothered to lift half a finger during a health crisis while the working class of the city get destroyed! The dullards can nibble on their cake crumbs while waiting for their job-creating superiors to allow their generosity to slowly trickle down… I say let the uber-wealthy go ahead and flee to their glorious “tax havens” of northern NJ, Suffolk Co, Westchester, Hudson Valley, and Connecticut. Such decadent behavior on the eve of a long-overdue political revolution only expedites the transition process. Muhahaha! While I agree that state and local taxes are higher than they need to be for everyone in NYS and NYC, federal taxes are also way too low on the highest income brackets (I’d go from 37% marginal to 50%...there are scholarly arguments being made for 65-70%). So long as the federal taxes are abnormally low, the rich should temporarily pay a little more at the local and state level with some form of a sunset tax hike. Because of all the tax discrepancies between U.S. regions, the easiest way to manage irksome tax haven issues during unusual economic crises like this one may have to come at the federal level. Enforce creative region-dependent income and corporate tax laws, close off tax loopholes, and restrict geographical market access for the wealthy and for companies who refuse to play fair.

 

2-E. Trump’s August 8th executive orders: I’d love to hear more from those who similarly feel that Trump “continues to insert himself in the weeds of economic policy,” specifically relating to Trump’s most recent executive orders. The four orders overall seemed woefully insufficient to me, relative to the magnitude of the economic crisis…more symbolic than substantive. The student loan payment suspensions were good, but they don’t account for private student loans. The eviction moratorium was excellent in principle, even though it’s not legally enforceable and only pushes a lump sum of payments months into the future. The temporary payroll tax cut/deferral was ok in theory, but probably overrated in macroeconomic impact and sketchy in terms of how it might affect social security funding long-term. I’ll get to the complicated $400+ unemployment benefits issue in a minute. What about a second round of $1200 stimulus? Or extensions of PPP support for small businesses, with as many as 40% of the nation-wide pre-pandemic number rumored to be in danger of permanently disappearing beyond Labor Day? Thoughts on Bernie’s proposed but rejected 60% tax on the specific wealth gains from billionaires during the pandemic, which would have generated ~$425 billion in revenue? Yes, I realize these all are issues more appropriate for Congress, with the Senate mysteriously adjourning through early September… But my questions reference the spirit of how various economic efforts may help, not the political logistics.

 

3. Analysis of the August 8th federal unemployment benefits extension (FUBE):

 

3-A. Extension details: So the $600 weekly federal bump from CARES expired at the end of July. Then Trump signed an executive order to extend but reduce to $300 weekly, plus an option for each state to determine an additional $100 weekly bump of their own contribution. This translates to a $15-per-hour wage boost dropping to either a $7.50 or $10 hourly wage boost. What complicates matters a bit is the confusing coordination needed between the federal government and the state unemployment offices in order to make the executive order work. It’s such a mess that many people will only receive these benefits retroactively, possibly not until after the extension expires near the middle of September. Hey, and you know what didn’t help?! Years of habitually underfunding unemployment offices so to deliberately frustrate citizens using the services. Perverse mind games meant to incentivize people to find work. Disgraceful.

 

3-B. The uncertain macroeconomic impact: According to the July 2020 JPMorgan Chase Institute study, average spending during the pandemic dropped by 10% for those employed and rose by 22% for those receiving the CARES Act’s $600+ (FYI: those going on normal unemployment benefits usually decrease their spending by 7%). The spending increase effect was most pronounced for the lowest wage workers. We have about 32 million people believed to be receiving unemployment benefits at the moment, with the normal US labor force capacity at about 160 million…that’s 20% of the workforce using FUBE! So the spending habits of those receiving unemployment benefits is significant to the overall economy and very likely has been stabilizing total consumer spending this year. The only issue I have with the study is that they can’t separate the collective effects of the $1200 stimulus checks, student loan suspensions, and rent forbearances from the unemployment benefits…however, the line charts clearly show huge jumps in consumer spending from 2 weeks before the CARES benefits first kicked in to 1 week after. Also, household spending fell by 20% for those individuals who experienced large delays in receiving the original fed unemployment benefits. So my conclusion: there’s a good case to be made here that ANY reduction from the original $600+ weekly will mean BAD NEWS for gross economic consumption, given the fact that new US unemployment claims of ~1 million minimum each week are being made 22 weeks into the crisis and that Covid-19 is still very much with us.

 

3-C. The contentious job search incentivization question: To what extent are the FUBE’s disincentivizing people from seeking employment? My short answer: FAULTY QUESTION because the number of people looking for jobs is currently at a MUCH bigger number than the number of job openings. The official U-3 unemployment rate is about 10%, with the true unemployment rate closer to about 19%. According to BLS (Bureau of Labor Stats), the recent job growth rate has significantly slowed and permanent/long-term job losses have substantially increased. Goldman Sachs research findings have led them to make very dire job growth/job loss predictions through all of next year. Now granted, I imagine that excessive FUBE’s are very well creating disincentives for people who despise their dead-end jobs and find zero fulfillment from them. I could detour into a lengthy debate here about living wages, but I won’t! In an ideal world, the FUBE’s would have been distributed according to costs of living variations by state/locality, regional pandemic spreads and pandemic responses, various job nuances and worker stipulations and caveats, etc… but that was never practical (FWIW: a right-wing source is making a claim I’m unable to confirm that 5 out of 6 who received the original CARES UB made more from the benefits than they would have otherwise normally made). The point is that we shouldn’t turn national economic public policy for the many into a morality play on laziness for the few, especially during a time of emergency. Too many individuals and families are just trying to pay their bills, so I don’t appreciate privileged DC politicians far removed from the economic destruction NOT compensating people for their inability to fully return to work…when THE POLITICIANS are the ones who forced the people to stop working in the first place during a health calamity.

 

Ok, done! Y’all still there…? I hope SoCal Deek doesn’t see this monstrosity hahaha…

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

 

[BillStime]

QTrump economy is killin it us

 

'The hardest message': American Airlines to lay off 17,500 frontline workers due to coronavirus travel slump

 

Thank you QTrump voters for buying into this bullschitt - no way you can defend a four year extension to this BS.

 

[Reality Check]

20 hours ago, BillStime said:

QTrump economy is killin it us

 

'The hardest message': American Airlines to lay off 17,500 frontline workers due to coronavirus travel slump

 

Thank you QTrump voters for buying into this bullschitt - no way you can defend a four year extension to this BS.

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

US durable goods orders

July Durable Goods: +11.2% (actual) vs +4.3% (estimated)
July Durable Goods ex-transport: +2.4% (actual) vs +2.0% (estimated)

[Tiberius]

 The Post reports that roughly “33 percent of the employees put on furlough in March were laid off for good by July . . . . Only 37 percent have been called back to their previous employer.” The numbers are staggering: “There were 3.7 million U.S. unemployed who had permanently lost their previous job as of July, according to the Labor Department. That figure doubled from February to June, held steady in July, and is expected to hit between 6.2 million and 8.7 million by late this year.”

[Reality Check]

26 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

 The Post reports that roughly “33 percent of the employees put on furlough in March were laid off for good by July . . . . Only 37 percent have been called back to their previous employer.” The numbers are staggering: “There were 3.7 million U.S. unemployed who had permanently lost their previous job as of July, according to the Labor Department. That figure doubled from February to June, held steady in July, and is expected to hit between 6.2 million and 8.7 million by late this year.”

 

[B-Man]

 

 

DEMOCRATS AND MEDIA (BUT I REPEAT MYSELF) HARDEST HIT: 

 

Dow turns positive for 2020, with S&P on pace for best August since ‘84.

 

 

 

 

 

[BillStime]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

PROGRESS: 

 

New jobless claims fall to 881,000.

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

Stock market a mess today. CNBC wasn’t working on my tv! 

 

The stock market has been unreal lately. People thinking it might crash. 

[Koko78]

4 hours ago, B-Man said:

PROGRESS: 

 

New jobless claims fall to 881,000.

 

Thanks, Obama!

[RiotAct]

Aaaaaand, it’s gone!

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Stock market a mess today. CNBC wasn’t working on my tv! 

 

The stock market has been unreal lately. People thinking it might crash. 

And now you're a financial expert? 

[SectionC3]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

And now you're a financial expert? 

I’m not but I know we’re over halfway to a correction in six hours.  Ugly. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, SectionC3 said:

I’m not but I know we’re over halfway to a correction in six hours.  Ugly. 

And.....? So? It's sunny here in southern California today.

[Tiberius]

Jobs report looks good, unemployment rate drops to 8.4% 

 

So Biden might take over a decent economy to work with 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Jobs report looks good, unemployment rate drops to 8.4% 

 

So Biden might take over a decent economy to work with 

Morning Tibs! So you’re saying you’re getting off the sofa and gonna start pulling on the wagon with the rest of us? Good for you. Welcome aboard. 

[Reality Check]

17 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

I’m not but I know we’re over halfway to a correction in six hours.  Ugly. 

 

[Big Blitz]

U.S. adds 1.4 million jobs in August 

 

Unemployment rate drops to 8.4%

 

A significant drop.

 

This is the #18 trend on Twitter.. ..which has basically become CNN.

[Tiberius]

Looks like Leader Pelosi’s economic stimulus has helped a lot 

 

The USA is luck to have her in charge of House 

[Reality Check]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Looks like President Trump's economic stimulus has helped a lot! 

 

The USA is luck to have him in charge of our House!!!