What do Bills need to make playoffs? Not a joke post.

[MDH]

 

 

Here's something to consider: the Bills have three of their very easiest games the last three weeks. If their schedule was different and they had already played the Browns, the Tannehill-less Dolphins and the hapless Jets but had the Steelers, Raiders and Pats the last three weeks and were sitting at 9-4, would you think of them differently?

 

 

I'm sure they would...right now. But in three weeks the board would be spewing venom about how they choked and missed the playoffs, and rightfully so.

Edited December 12, 2016 by MDH

[KD in CA]

Sounds like they would need six team planes to crash and win out.

 

One of those things is mathematically impossible.

 

 

The plane crash thing is pretty unlikely too.

[respk]

What makes anyone think we win out? We've looked so bad I'm not sure we get past Cleveland.

[djp14150]

Am I right?

Win out.

Denver losses last 3.

Miami losses last 3.

Tennessee losses 2 of 3.

Baltimore losses 2 of 3.

Indy losss 1 of 3.

I get a date with Erin Andrews.

They need to be so 9-7 and everyone else is 8-8.

 

Buffalo tied with miami at 9'7 miami gets the tiebreaker based on common games. They went 0-3 vs 1-1 in non common games.

 

So denver has too lose all 3 left.

Pittsburgh or baltimore have to go 8'8, the other wins the division.

 

Houston and tennesee play each other...I think the last game of the season so the loser of that game and indy need to lose another game.

 

Miami win next werk...buffalo is eliminated.

[metzelaars_lives]

They need to be so 9-7 and everyone else is 8-8.

 

Buffalo tied with miami at 9'7 miami gets the tiebreaker based on common games. They went 0-3 vs 1-1 in non common games.

 

So denver has too lose all 3 left.

Pittsburgh or baltimore have to go 8'8, the other wins the division.

 

Houston and tennesee play each other...I think the last game of the season so the loser of that game and indy need to lose another game.

 

Miami win next werk...buffalo is eliminated.

*in Donald Trump voice while leaning into microphone* WRONG.

 

The Bills would win the tiebreaker over Denver if they're both 9-7 based on record vs. common opponents.

 

If the Dolphins beat the Jets and lose their final two, the Bills (assuming they win out) would have the same record vs. common opponents as the Dolphins (they'd both be 7-5). Not sure what the next tiebreaker is but the playoff simulator gives the Dolphins the edge over the Bills if they both finish 9-7 so it looks like you are correct that they would have the tiebreaker. But that may be based on other games I picked. Not sure what the situation is there really.

 

If the Ravens lose tonight and the Dolphins lose to the Jets, the Bills are very much alive going into Sunday. The Broncos are not going 2-1. We would then just need the Ravens to go 1-2 and the Dolphins to lose to the Pats, which is not that far-fetched.

Edited December 12, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[/dev/null]

Make the Ravens, Steelers, Broncos, and Dolphins an offer they can't refuse

 

 

 

 

[Nitro]

Extreme long shot. Indy is not as good as many think. Miami is going with a back up unless Tannehill gimps along. Denver QB play is worse than the Bills. I can see those teams hit the skids. Baltimore is playing strong and confident football. Tennessee is a young team on the rise. I like your optimism but I would not make that bet.

*in Donald Trump voice while leaning into microphone* WRONG.

 

The Bills would win the tiebreaker over Denver if they're both 9-7 based on record vs. common opponents.

 

If the Dolphins beat the Jets and lose their final two, the Bills (assuming they win out) would have the same record vs. common opponents as the Dolphins (they'd both be 7-5). Not sure what the next tiebreaker is but the playoff simulator gives the Dolphins the edge over the Bills if they both finish 9-7 so it looks like you are correct that they would have the tiebreaker. But that may be based on other games I picked. Not sure what the situation is there really.

 

If the Ravens lose tonight and the Dolphins lose to the Jets, the Bills are very much alive going into Sunday. The Broncos are not going 2-1. We would then just need the Ravens to go 1-2 and the Dolphins to lose to the Pats, which is not that far-fetched.

Denver will lose out. Home against NE, at KC and home against Oakland.

[Best Player Available]

Am I right?

Win out.

Denver losses last 3.

Miami losses last 3.

Tennessee losses 2 of 3.

Baltimore losses 2 of 3.

Indy losss 1 of 3.

I get a date with Erin Andrews.

Bad news on Erin.She just got engaged.

[QB Bills]

Considering the prospect of no meaningful games until September of next year, I'm holding on to the slightest bit of hope that things fall our way. Mostly just so I have a vested interest this weekend.

 

Just like the similar thread posted last week, I'm not thinking this is at all likely. But stranger things have happened. (Or maybe not).

 

 

1. We need to win out..duh.

 

2. Miami has to lose out. Starting Saturday night at the Jets and week 17 against the Pats (as well as us in between, obviously) or we're officially done. Meaning we could be mathematically out before kickoff Sunday if I'm not mistaken. No Tannehill possibly, even though I think he sucks.

 

3. Baltimore needs to lose 2 of PHI, @PIT, @CIN. Losing at Pit could easily happen. At Cincy is far less likely, but possible. Division game on the road and they should have AJ Green back.

 

4. Tennessee needs to lose 2 of @KC, @JAX, HOU. Lose at KC, then one of the next two somehow.

 

5. Denver has to lose 2 of NE, @KC, OAK. We beat Denver on tiebreakers at 9-7 somehow according to the ESPN machine, so they don't have to lose out. Just any two of the three which is very possible.

 

 

Save the doom and gloom replies. I know the odds are astronomical. I watched them lay eggs the last two weeks too. But its a week-to-week league and as much as I hate Rex, I don't think the team is as bad as everyone is making them out to be.

 

When this all happens, I'll be back to start a thread in early January about how the Bills will get revenge in Pittsburgh on wild-card weekend.

Edited December 14, 2016 by QB Bills

[TANK2]

2 percent chance. Im so psyched.

[TheFunPolice]

It's actually not that crazy

 

Every year we say it will take 11 wins but some 9-7 team makes it.

Edited December 14, 2016 by TheFunPolice

[Alphadawg7]

Considering the prospect of no meaningful games until September of next year, I'm holding on to the slightest bit of hope that things fall our way. Mostly just so I have a vested interest this weekend.

 

Just like the similar thread posted last week, I'm not thinking this is at all likely. But stranger things have happened. (Or maybe not).

 

 

1. We need to win out..duh.

 

2. Miami has to lose out. Starting Saturday night at the Jets and week 17 against the Pats (as well as us in between, obviously) or we're officially done. Meaning we could be mathematically out before kickoff Sunday if I'm not mistaken. No Tannehill possibly, even though I think he sucks.

 

3. Baltimore needs to lose 2 of PHI, @PIT, @CIN. Losing at Pit could easily happen. At Cincy is far less likely, but possible. Division game on the road and they should have AJ Green back.

 

4. Tennessee needs to lose 2 of @KC, @JAX, HOU. Lose at KC, then one of the next two somehow.

 

5. Denver has to lose 2 of NE, @KC, OAK. We beat Denver on tiebreakers at 9-7 somehow according to the ESPN machine, so they don't have to lose out. Just any two of the three which is very possible.

 

 

Save the doom and gloom replies. I know the odds are astronomical. I watched them lay eggs the last two weeks too. But its a week-to-week league and as much as I hate Rex, I don't think the team is as bad as everyone is making them out to be.

 

When this all happens, I'll be back to start a thread in early January about how the Bills will get revenge in Pittsburgh on wild-card weekend.

 

These kinds of scenarios have happened before, so its not crazy. Anyone flaming you is just here to be miserable as you more than covered that its a long shot, just pointing out the possibilities. And to be honest, I think Balt will lose 2 of those games, Tenn will lose to KC and have a tough game against Houston. Denver will lose two of those, and might lose all 3 as all 3 teams are better teams than Denver.

 

The least likely one is Miami losing out...I don't see them losing to the Jets. I think they will lose to us assuming we don't do something stupid like start Cardale and they will lose to NE as I think NE games will be meaningful the last 2 weeks of the season. Jets are just bad though, and I fully expect Miami to beat them. At least we will know if our sliver of hope is dead or not after this weekend based on the Miami outcome.

 

Update Edit: After I posted this I remembered Miami lost Tanny...so that makes the Jets game more interesting as I am not even sure what scrub they have as their backup. If its Matt Moore still, then he might actually do better than Tanny though lmao...

Edited December 14, 2016 by Alphadawg7

[DDD]

Considering the prospect of no meaningful games until September of next year, I'm holding on to the slightest bit of hope that things fall our way. Mostly just so I have a vested interest this weekend.

 

Just like the similar thread posted last week, I'm not thinking this is at all likely. But stranger things have happened. (Or maybe not).

 

 

1. We need to win out..duh.

 

2. Miami has to lose out. Starting Saturday night at the Jets and week 17 against the Pats (as well as us in between, obviously) or we're officially done. Meaning we could be mathematically out before kickoff Sunday if I'm not mistaken. No Tannehill possibly, even though I think he sucks.

 

3. Baltimore needs to lose 2 of PHI, @PIT, @CIN. Losing at Pit could easily happen. At Cincy is far less likely, but possible. Division game on the road and they should have AJ Green back.

 

4. Tennessee needs to lose 2 of @KC, @JAX, HOU. Lose at KC, then one of the next two somehow.

 

5. Denver has to lose 2 of NE, @KC, OAK. We beat Denver on tiebreakers at 9-7 somehow according to the ESPN machine, so they don't have to lose out. Just any two of the three which is very possible.

 

 

Save the doom and gloom replies. I know the odds are astronomical. I watched them lay eggs the last two weeks too. But its a week-to-week league and as much as I hate Rex, I don't think the team is as bad as everyone is making them out to be.

 

When this all happens, I'll be back to start a thread in early January about how the Bills will get revenge in Pittsburgh on wild-card weekend.

 

Below average talent, below average coach = exactly what the Bills are. Their record really is a true reflection of what they are.

[MDH]

Considering the prospect of no meaningful games until September of next year, I'm holding on to the slightest bit of hope that things fall our way. Mostly just so I have a vested interest this weekend.

 

Just like the similar thread posted last week, I'm not thinking this is at all likely. But stranger things have happened. (Or maybe not).

 

 

1. We need to win out..duh.

 

2. Miami has to lose out. Starting Saturday night at the Jets and week 17 against the Pats (as well as us in between, obviously) or we're officially done. Meaning we could be mathematically out before kickoff Sunday if I'm not mistaken. No Tannehill possibly, even though I think he sucks.

 

3. Baltimore needs to lose 2 of PHI, @PIT, @CIN. Losing at Pit could easily happen. At Cincy is far less likely, but possible. Division game on the road and they should have AJ Green back.

 

4. Tennessee needs to lose 2 of @KC, @JAX, HOU. Lose at KC, then one of the next two somehow.

 

5. Denver has to lose 2 of NE, @KC, OAK. We beat Denver on tiebreakers at 9-7 somehow according to the ESPN machine, so they don't have to lose out. Just any two of the three which is very possible.

 

 

Save the doom and gloom replies. I know the odds are astronomical. I watched them lay eggs the last two weeks too. But its a week-to-week league and as much as I hate Rex, I don't think the team is as bad as everyone is making them out to be.

 

When this all happens, I'll be back to start a thread in early January about how the Bills will get revenge in Pittsburgh on wild-card weekend.

 

Tennessee doesn't have to lose 2 of 3. Instead, Houston can lose 2 of 3. As long as the runner up in that division doesn't have 9 wins it doesn't matter. If the Bengals can beat the Texans in week 16 and the Titans lose to the Chiefs this week their head to head matchup in week 17 doesn't mean a thing to the Bills.

[mob16151]

 

These kinds of scenarios have happened before, so its not crazy. Anyone flaming you is just here to be miserable as you more than covered that its a long shot, just pointing out the possibilities. And to be honest, I think Balt will lose 2 of those games, Tenn will lose to KC and have a tough game against Houston. Denver will lose two of those, and might lose all 3 as all 3 teams are better teams than Denver.

 

The least likely one is Miami losing out...I don't see them losing to the Jets. I think they will lose to us assuming we don't do something stupid like start Cardale and they will lose to NE as I think NE games will be meaningful the last 2 weeks of the season. Jets are just bad though, and I fully expect Miami to beat them. At least we will know if our sliver of hope is dead or not after this weekend based on the Miami outcome.

 

Update Edit: After I posted this I remembered Miami lost Tanny...so that makes the Jets game more interesting as I am not even sure what scrub they have as their backup. If its Matt Moore still, then he might actually do better than Tanny though lmao...

It's Matt Moore

[The Jokeman]

What makes anyone think we win out? We've looked so bad I'm not sure we get past Cleveland.

Cleveland can't afford to win if they want to keep the 1st overall draft pick.

[MDH]

If the Dolphins beat the Jets and lose their final two, the Bills (assuming they win out) would have the same record vs. common opponents as the Dolphins (they'd both be 7-5). Not sure what the next tiebreaker is but the playoff simulator gives the Dolphins the edge over the Bills if they both finish 9-7 so it looks like you are correct that they would have the tiebreaker.

 

It's interesting because the ESPN playoff machine gives the tie to the Dolphins but if I enter the exact same scenario (including other afc games) into the NY Times simulator it gives the Bills the advantage over Miami. Not sure which one is right.

[Poeticlaw]

Though we would like to believe the lost to the Steelers put the final nail in. This team according to my buddy is still very much alive. A miracle needs to happen for it to come to fruition but given Denver's remaining schedule is it possible that they could lose all three? Lets see New England, KC and Oakland is it possible. If it happens all the Bills need to do is win out. And ask for a few miracles along the way. Miami needs to lose 2 of 3 (all three if we don't look good in the tie breaker at the end of then season) , Baltimore needs to lose 2 of 3. Tennessee needs to lose 2 of 3. and Indy needs to lose 1.

 

Do I think all these teams are going to tank down the finish. No I don't. But what I do see is the reason why Rex is still the head coach. We are mathematically in it and if all the pieces miraculously fall in place the team will be in the playoffs. Thus you cannot make the change at the helm at either QB or Head Coach until the FAT LADY officially sings her song. Provided we beat the Browns the only way we can be eliminated this week is with a loss or a Denver win. Which would mean that we are still playing meaningful games you don't throw in the towel when there are meaningful games left on the table.

 

Don't get me wrong I think the season is over myself. But as my friend keeps pointing out to me there are still chances that we get in and as long as he has hope you cannot make a change and If I am Rex I am laying it out on the line win the next three games and see where the rest of the AFC lands.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

They had chances in the last two games and couldn't get it done in either. They are toast for 2016.

[QB Bills]

 

It's interesting because the ESPN playoff machine gives the tie to the Dolphins but if I enter the exact same scenario (including other afc games) into the NY Times simulator it gives the Bills the advantage over Miami. Not sure which one is right.

I believe the NYT is right...which is good for us. Means that we can beat Miami on a 9-7 tiebreak.

 

The tiebreakers are below:

 

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in common games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

 

Assuming Miami beats the Jets then loses to us and NE, we tie them in the first 4 scenarios. It comes down to strength of victory. Taking out all the common victories, we have beaten NE, Jax, Cincy and they have SD, Jets, Pit. We are currently 1.5 wins ahead of them (by virtue of the one Cincy tie). Assuming the Jets lose the next three and NE wins the next three, then we are in good shape. Basically, Jax + Cinci remaining wins + 1.5 has to be greater than SD remaining wins.